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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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Full results of the Remdesivir trial. Pretty much confirms the early results that were released weeks ago. Doesn’t do anything for intubated patients, but they should def use this on everyone before that stage.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22...ent-with-remdesivir-and-also-its-limitations/
Excellent results!

The study of 1,063 patients included 538 who received remdesivir and 521 who were given a placebo. Those who received remdesivir recovered in a median of 11 days, compared to 15 days for those who received placebo. Mortality in the remdesivir group was 7.1%, compared to 11.9% for the placebo group, but this difference was not statistically significant. This is slightly better than previously results.
 
By the way about 20% of COVID cases end up in the hospital, not 3%.

Not exactly, 3% reflected the fact that many cases have gone undocumented as asymptomatic , mild or moderate but could not or did not get a test. Using NYC antibody results and hospitalizations I rounded to roughly 3%.
 
Aren't droplets much larger than airborne particles by a huge percentage?? I mean by a lot.

The virus doesn't change size depending on how it's expelled. A virus particle is a virus particle. Large droplets may contain considerably more virus particles, but not bigger particles. If it takes 7 mins to deactivate 1 particle, it takes 7 min. Spit or breath, doesn't matter.

Yes droplets (100-1000 microns or 0.1-1 mm) are much larger than airborne "micro mists" of very small (1-10 micron) droplets containing many 0.1 micron virus particles, which are most likely to be produced by breathing/talking, but breathing/talking should only be a risk when people are well within 6 feet of each other.

I would imagine that in a cough or sneeze (the worst case exposure for other humans nearby) the droplets all contain similar numbers of virus particles per unit volume of water, i.e., the same concentration, since the virus particles should be fairly homogeneous in the fluid inside the body before being expelled. Given that even the finest droplets still contain many virus partices suspended in water, I doubt there's a significant difference in UV deactivation of virus particles in fine aerosols vs. larger droplets.

And there shouldn't be virus particles that are "dry" (no water) coming from a cough or sneeze or breath) - it takes a little while for the water to evaporate, although dried out virus particles (which are all about 0.1 microns) on surfaces would certainly be likely to be deactivated more quickly than those suspended in water (as water does reflect some of the UV rays - like clouds do). But that's not germane to the risk of getting infected from being close to another person.

Bottom line is UV radiation is not going to reduce transmission of the virus from an infected person directly to another infected person from close contact/sneezing/coughing, which is why masks are needed if one can't maintain 6 feet distance. Period. UV radiation will greatly reduce active virus particle counts on all inanimate surfaces, although, surfaces, as we all discussed yesterday with the CDC downgrading risks from surfaces a bit, are only a very minor route of transmission.
 
Not exactly, 3% reflected the fact that many cases have gone undocumented as asymptomatic , mild or moderate but could not or did not get a test. Using NYC antibody results and hospitalizations I rounded to roughly 3%.

Ok, very few people on this board talk about the rates of X vs. infections, as opposed to cases, so I assumed you were talking viral positive cases and yes, ~20% of cases hospitalized corresponds to roughly 3% of infections hospitalized in NY/NYC.

Knowing the actual infection fatality rate for NY/NYC is in the 1% range, based on antibody population results and given likely herd immunity levels of 60% or more, is why this virus is so dangerous, as those simple numbers, if translated for the US, equal 198MM infected x 1% dying = 1.98MM deaths. Eventually, over 6-24 months, assuming no interventions/cure/vaccine (and where those numbers are reached far more slowly in low density locations). Even if the IFR is artificially high for some reason in NY and it ends up being half that, that's still the potential for 1MM US deaths.
 
I don't have time to go back and see who was trashing Cuomo on LTC facilities, but NY ranks as the 16th best state in per capita deaths in LTC facilities at only 20% of total state deaths vs. the national average of 35% of deaths being in LTC facilities. NJ is much worse, at 13th worst on the list (52%). My only point in bringing this up is that the savaging of Cuomo over LTC deaths is unfair. IMO, very few states have done well on this count, but singling out NY makes little sense to me. Hopefully the states have learned how to better protect the most vulnerable among us.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/09/us/coronavirus-cases-nursing-homes-us.html

Also, Louisiana barred COVID patients from going back to LTC facilities and had 40% of their deaths in LTC facilities, while NYC very strongly encouraged (not forced) LTC facilities to take back recovering COVID patients and had about 5400 LTC deaths or 20% of total deaths in the state through 5/11, when NY changed the directive, not 10,000. You tell me which state did better and per capita is the best way to compare such things on an apples to apples basis.

Also, CDC guidance is for recovering patients to wait at least 72 hours before resuming "normal" activities. Yes, I think NY and Cuomo probably should have sent recovering patients elsewhere, but unless it's determined that they were sent back before the CDC guidance would have recommended, then I don't think there's an issue here, other than maybe the CDC guidance is inappropriate for protecting others. Cuomo at least answers tough questions, unlike Trump, who simply berates the questioner - he basically said let the Feds start a probe, as it's not his decision anyway.

Recommendation: For persons recovered from COVID-19 illness, CDC recommends that isolation be maintained for at least 10 days after illness onset and at least 3 days (72 hours) after recovery. Illness onset is defined as the date symptoms begin. Recovery is defined as resolution of fever without the use of fever-reducing medications with progressive improvement or resolution of other symptoms. Ideally, isolation should be maintained for this full period to the extent that it is practicable under rapidly changing circumstances.
 
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75% is a fantasy. Be honest and get real. Let's keep this thread about the facts. 10% at most. Look at recent photos from NJ beaches and parks.

You said “outside”, you never specified NJ beaches or parks.

And considering those places have been open for a week or less you’re just making $hit up. Thanks for proving my point.
 
You said “outside”, you never specified NJ beaches or parks.

And considering those places have been open for a week or less you’re just making $hit up. Thanks for proving my point.
Beaches and parks are.....wait for it, outside. Plenty of photos to look up. Walk around your neighborhood, same thing. Very few people are wearing masks. Your claim of 75% is asinine. 10% at most.

Don't know why you are afraid of the facts. Very weird.
 
More "promising" convalescent plasma data, this time from a Houston hospital that treated 25 patients with severe or life-threatening COVID infections. By day 14 post-transfusion, 19 (76%) patients improved from baseline: with 11 patients having been discharged and eight patients improved from baseline; three patients remained unchanged, three had deteriorated, and one patient died from a condition not caused by plasma transfusion. There were not adverse safety events related to the plasma infusion.

It's not quite clear if all 25 patients were considered ICU patients (where there is 57% mortality, as per the post above) or simply hospitalized patients (where there is 15-20% mortality), but the fact that the mortality rate was only 4% (and 20 of the patients have been discharged as of the publishing of the paper with only a couple still in the ICU) is at least encouraging. However, it should be noted that all of these patients were on other medications, such as HCQ/Az (100%), oral ribavirin (68%), remdesivir (10%) and IL-6 inhibitors tocilizumab and methylprednisolone (72%), and there was no control group, so the data need to be taken with a grain of salt.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.08.20095471v1.full.pdf

And more promising efficacy results on convalescent plasma, this time in the best controlled experiment possible without being truly controlled/randomized, as they used a "matched control study" giving 39 patients in various stages of infection severity in the hospital CP and matching them retrospectively as best as possible to 39 other patients who did not receive plasma, which the authors said was not hard to do, given the huge numbers of infected people coming into NYC hospitals in late March/early April.

The mortality rate in the treated group was about half that of the control group and the authors stated that, "convalescent plasma transfusion was significantly associated with improved survival in non-intubated patients." More data coming soon, I'm sure, as they've now infused almost 15,000 patients across the country under the direction of the Mayo Clinic.

https://www.newswise.com/coronaviru...19-according-to-early-data/?article_id=732039

For this study, plasma recipients and control patients were 100 percent matched on their supplemental oxygen requirement on day zero, in addition to other baseline demographic factors and comorbidities. Of them, 69.2 percent were receiving high-flow oxygen and 10.3 percent were receiving invasive mechanical ventilation. By day 14, clinical condition had worsened in 18 percent of the plasma patients and 24.3 percent of the control patients. On days one and seven, the plasma group also showed a reduction in the proportion of patients with worsened oxygenation status, but that difference was not statistically significant. As of May 1, 12.8 percent of plasma recipients and 24.4 percent of the 1:4 matched control patients had died, with 71.8 percent and 66.7 percent, respectively, being discharged alive.
 
Beaches and parks are.....wait for it, outside. Plenty of photos to look up. Walk around your neighborhood, same thing. Very few people are wearing masks. Your claim of 75% is asinine. 10% at most.

Don't know why you are afraid of the facts. Very weird.

Barely anyone has been on the beach in the past week and parks just opened so your statement is bs....I split time between suburbia and rural areas and can tell you way more than 10% of people are wearing masks “outside” like you claim when they may come in close contact with people...especially in rural areas.

Just because you’re too “tough” to wear a mask outside doesn’t mean the majority of the population with a brain are.
 
Barely anyone has been on the beach in the past week and parks just opened so your statement is bs....I split time between suburbia and rural areas and can tell you way more than 10% of people are wearing masks “outside” like you claim when they may come in close contact with people...especially in rural areas.

Just because you’re too “tough” to wear a mask outside doesn’t mean the majority of the population with a brain are.

I see more people wearing masks inside their cars than I do walking outside...
 
With regard to wearing masks, the number of people wearing or even having a mask on the boardwalk in Belmar cannot be more than 20%. And I think I am being generous. If you think you can avoid being within 6 feet of anyone else for the entire length of that boardwalk I don't think you know what 6 feet of distance is. And it is people of all ages just doing whatever they want. I even see law enforcement and EMS people not wearing masks although less frequently.

Then Murphy decides that it is now OK for 25 people to have a barbecue. Based on what? I am trying to do what I believe is the right thing by being cautious but honestly I think our federal and state governments are back to doing political calculations regarding an issue that should not be political but like everything else winds up being so. I just don't get why having a mask around your neck that you can raise when necessary is such a big inconvenience to anyone.

With regard to Home Depot, I believe it is mandatory to wear one whether inside the store or in the garden center. Hey if you don't want to wear one in any store that requires its don't go there. Have all your goods delivered or ready for curbside pick up. Yet we have Yahoos picking fights with security personnel in stores over having to wear a mask. And it seems to me our law enforcement departments want nothing to do with getting involved with these disputes. Just embarrassing.
 
Same here, very tired of your schtick. I have 95% of medical science on my side and you have the discredited Didier Raoult, Elon Musk and Dr. Trump on your side. HCQ is simply not effective and is actually dangerous for hospitalized COVID patients. You simply can't see the forest for the trees and keep looking for minor differences that don't really mean anything when all you have to look at is that the HCQ and comparators were matched pretty damn closely and the mortality rate was significantly greater for the HCQ patients. For a huge sample size of 15K/80K.

Don't you think that if HCQ had any efficacy at all there would have at least been some signal in a huge dataset like that? And maybe the ICU stays were longer and ventilation needs were greater for the HCQ patients because HCQ was actually worse for patients than the control - hence the eventual greater mortality rate as an outcome.

And yes, I misspoke on moderate - should have simply said less severe vs. more severe, as they did exclude the most severe patients (intubated) at start of HCQ treatment from the HCQ data, but you're correct that it's generally at least severe to be admitted to the hospital. By the way about 20% of COVID cases end up in the hospital, not 3%. And I didn't even bring Lowe's blog up today, although since you asked, he savaged HCQ in it today and rightly so.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/05/22/hydroxychloroquine-enough-already

From Lowe's Blog: But I’m going to leave it at this. There was no evidence whatsoever of any benefit with any of these treatment regimes. There was significant evidence of harm. Here’s how it works: when something is real, you continue to see a real signal as you collect more and better data. When something is not real, it disappears. Tell me again why anyone should be advocating such treatments. But your reasons had better stand up to 14,888 patients versus 81,144 comparators. Make it good.

At this point, there's probably not much more productive from continuing this conversation. Let's see what happens with the prophylactic and mild symptom studies, although I'm surprised you're simply going to buy the reports from India on this without a scientific paper/description behind it. The only published data I've seen so far on prevention of getting COVID has been from lupus patients on HCQ, who are significantly more likely to get COVID than RA patients. Granted they're not "typical" patients, but that's certainly not a good sign for prevention.
The study is either fraudulent or the PSM techniques they used created extreme bias. How can I tell? Simple data analysis. I will err on the conservative side. Of the multiple collections of hospital data I have read, it is suggested that 25-30% end up in ICU and 80-85% of those in ICU needed mechanical vents for the period of time being studied here (12/19 to early 4/20). Just for confirmation, look at NJ's hospital data here:

Peak hospitalizations roughly 8000
Peak ICU 2000
Peak Vents 1700

So I will err of conservative side and use 25% of hospitalizations go to ICU and 80% ICU need vents which comes to 20% of all hospitalized need vents.

Take a look at treated groups in this study: 21.6, 21.5, 20.4 and 20. Hey roughly 20% just like expected. Now look at the control of over 80,000!!!!!!!! 7.7%

I hope you quickly realize that statistically there is no way you can randomly select 80,000 patients to be representative of a larger population that has 20% of something and get 7.7%. The control is not representative of real world data and is SIGNIFICANTLY different from the overall case population. Very questionable as their PSM routine created extreme bias. Hope it wasn't intentional.
 
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Interesting to see how many if any additional cases come from this hair salon in Missouri where a symptomatic hair stylist worked for 8 days exposing 91 people. Reported that all were wearing masks, interesting to see how much that may have helped or not in limiting spread. Supposedly she kept meticulous records which helped contact tracing.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/23/us/missouri-hairstylist-coronavirus-trnd/index.html
 
Barely anyone has been on the beach in the past week and parks just opened so your statement is bs....I split time between suburbia and rural areas and can tell you way more than 10% of people are wearing masks “outside” like you claim when they may come in close contact with people...especially in rural areas.

Just because you’re too “tough” to wear a mask outside doesn’t mean the majority of the population with a brain are.
If you want to keep lying about the % of people wearing masks outside that is on you. Don't understand why you would go down that road, but I guess you enjoy trolling. Also, where did I mention anything about when/where I personally wear a mask? Let's stop projecting and jumping to conclusions.
 
+1
Someone has to explain this weird behavior to me.
Posted this on the CE board in that thread about the guy who reportedly passed out driving while wearing a mask.

I haven't gone out much but have worn a N95 mask and cloth one over it while driving for curbside and back and while at home for a bit to test my own tolerance for it. It does get uncomfortable after awhile.

But if I was going out more often for sure I could be wearing it at times while in the car. It's not because I'm going to get infected while I'm in the car but partly for what you say. Once I've adjusted and fitted it properly before I leave I prefer not to fiddle with it anymore. If it was a one stop trip I'd take it off before the drive home and if more than one stop trip I'd probably keep it on until after the last stop before home so it'll be on driving and any time between.

The other reason I wouldn't take it off so often is because I only have two old ones and I would like them to last as long as they can. The more on and off of the mask the more elastic gets stretched back and forth over and over and may break. So the less I do that I think the longer it can last.

That all being said if I did feel any distress for sure I'd take it off. People have to use some common sense on how they're feeling.
 
Posted this on the CE board in that thread about the guy who reportedly passed out driving while wearing a mask.

I haven't gone out much but have worn a N95 mask and cloth one over it while driving for curbside and back and while at home for a bit to test my own tolerance for it. It does get uncomfortable after awhile.

But if I was going out more often for sure I could be wearing it at times while in the car. It's not because I'm going to get infected while I'm in the car but partly for what you say. Once I've adjusted and fitted it properly before I leave I prefer not to fiddle with it anymore. If it was a one stop trip I'd take it off before the drive home and if more than one stop trip I'd probably keep it on until after the last stop before home so it'll be on driving and any time between.

The other reason I wouldn't take it off so often is because I only have two old ones and I would like them to last as long as they can. The more on and off of the mask the more elastic gets stretched back and forth over and over and may break. So the less I do that I think the longer it can last.

That all being said if I did feel any distress for sure I'd take it off. People have to use some common sense on how they're feeling.
I don't know, seems like a bad idea to wear a mask in the car. The wear and tear is the same. Drive to the grocery store, put it on after you park. Go into the store, come out, put the bags in the car, put the cart away, purell hands, take mask off, purell hands again (if you would like), go home.

Obviously, if you have more than one stop, perhaps. I use the N95's with elastics around the head for grocery stores or stores with larger crowd, but lighter weight KN95's with ear elastics for other places and quick use.
 
I see more people wearing masks inside their cars than I do walking outside...

I love seeing single occupant cars and the drivers wearing masks. It gives my wife and me a good chuckle.

With regard to wearing masks, the number of people wearing or even having a mask on the boardwalk in Belmar cannot be more than 20%. And I think I am being generous. If you think you can avoid being within 6 feet of anyone else for the entire length of that boardwalk I don't think you know what 6 feet of distance is. And it is people of all ages just doing whatever they want. I even see law enforcement and EMS people not wearing masks although less frequently.

Then Murphy decides that it is now OK for 25 people to have a barbecue. Based on what? I am trying to do what I believe is the right thing by being cautious but honestly I think our federal and state governments are back to doing political calculations regarding an issue that should not be political but like everything else winds up being so. I just don't get why having a mask around your neck that you can raise when necessary is such a big inconvenience to anyone.

With regard to Home Depot, I believe it is mandatory to wear one whether inside the store or in the garden center. Hey if you don't want to wear one in any store that requires its don't go there. Have all your goods delivered or ready for curbside pick up. Yet we have Yahoos picking fights with security personnel in stores over having to wear a mask. And it seems to me our law enforcement departments want nothing to do with getting involved with these disputes. Just embarrassing.

The mask vs no mask outside numbers should obviously differ based on the location and density of people. Your viewpoint is realistic and prudent. I have not been out in public much, but when I am near people, I wear a mask. When no one is near, I dont. It's a basic principle that, if people adhere to it, will help decrease transmission of this virus and help keep the hospitals from being overloaded with sick patients. Murphy did say 25 people, group gatherings were ok, but to also maintain social distancing. In theory, it sounds ok, but a gathering of 25 people who keep six feet apart would require thousands of square feet (where are the math majors?). In regards to the shore (and other similar areas) six feet of distance may not be sufficient. A 5, 10, 20 mph wind will negate that "safe" six foot radius quickly and unknowingly. Something to think about when walking on that boardwalk or sitting in the sand.
 
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I love seeing single occupant cars and the drivers wearing masks. It gives my wife and me a good chuckle.



The mask vs no mask outside numbers should obviously differ based on the location and density of people. Your viewpoint is realistic and prudent. I have not been out in public much, but when I am near people, I wear a mask. When no one is near, I dont. It's a basic principle that, if people adhere to it, will help decrease transmission of this virus and help keep the hospitals from being overloaded with sick patients. Murphy did say 25 people, group gatherings were ok, but to also maintain social distancing. In theory, it sounds ok, but a gathering of 25 people who keep six feet apart would require thousands of square feet (where are the math majors?). In regards to the shore (and other similar areas) six feet of distance may not be sufficient. A 5, 10, 20 mph wind will negate that "safe" six foot radius quickly and unknowingly. Something to think about when walking on that boardwalk or sitting in the sand.
25 people would be 5X5.

x x x x x
x
x
x
x

Would minimally require 24x24 space if nobody moved. To accommodate movement without violating 6 foot would require much more say 48 x 48 where folks could walk down the center of each row and stay 6 foot from others.

Or maybe this configuration

X<6ft>X<6ft>X<6ft>X<6ft>X<6ft>
^
6ft
v
X<6ft>X<6ft>X<6ft>X<6ft>X<6ft>
^
12ft
v
X<6ft>X<6ft>X<6ft>X<6ft>X<6ft>
^
12ft
v
X<6ft>X<6ft>X<6ft>X<6ft>X<6ft>
^
6ft
v
X<6ft>X<6ft>X<6ft>X<6ft>X<6ft>

so maybe a 36 X 30???
 
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I don't know, seems like a bad idea to wear a mask in the car. The wear and tear is the same. Drive to the grocery store, put it on after you park. Go into the store, come out, put the bags in the car, put the cart away, purell hands, take mask off, purell hands again (if you would like), go home.

Obviously, if you have more than one stop, perhaps. I use the N95's with elastics around the head for grocery stores or stores with larger crowd, but lighter weight KN95's with ear elastics for other places and quick use.
For 1 stop shopping the wear and tear is the same, I just prefer adjusting everything at home and leaving as is afterwards. But if you're making more than one stop and doing it on and off often enough that's more wear and tear on the bands and I've had elastic snap on me for things in the past. The less often I stretch them the better. It's not like I can find replacements either from any source that I'd actually trust. It was hard finding any even back in February, read articles that people were sending them home to China. I have to make what I got last as long as possible cause this issue isn't going away any time soon.

It is uncomfortable after some time no doubt and I can just imagine as the weather gets warmer coming back to a hot car that'll be worse and I might have to change behavior at that time and deal with the extra wear and tear on the bands. Regardless, people have to realize their own tolerance and adjust accordingly.
 
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