Hospitalizations in NJ just under 3k for the first time in right weeks. That's down 25% in nine days. We were just under 4k on May 14. The justification for continued closures is evaporating.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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With 3-5% of the world likely infected, based on a bunch of antibody population sampling, and many/most countries practicing some to a lot of mask-wearing and social distancing (even after they "open up"), it's hard to imagine coming anywhere close to 54-82% infections (herd immunity depending on the R0 transmission rates that have been published) by the fall. The only way that happens is either: i) stopping all interventions, which simply won't happen or ii) if, somehow, there are a lot of people who have some cross-reactive immunity to this virus from antibodies from previous virus exposures (we know some have antiobodies and T cells active towards CV2, but we don't know if they confer any actual immunity - would be the best news ever if they did). Do you have a link to the actual study?
It happen with SARS, right? Why not Covid19?
Happy to give you and your wife a good chuckle, because I do it often. You should follow me around, you could laugh all day.
As some others have said, if you have multiple stops on the same day, it is just easier to leave it on.
They seem to cover the themselves pretty good here:
Scientists at the university cautioned that their results are continually evolving and inexact– and that the predictions should not lead to hasty ends of lockdowns around the world.
Over-optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus,” they said.
The article doesn't name the scientists, doesn't source the report, doesn't explain how the model works, and gives a caveat about the "results." Yikes.
Completely different viruses and especially completely different evolutions in the body, including quite different transmission profiles, with CV2 being much more infectious earlier in infection evolution, including while being asymptomatic. This is why many think the R0 for CV2 could be as high as 5.7, but even if it's not, the fact that it's more transmissible during the first several days of infection is why we now have millions infected vs. tens of thousands with SARS.
Powerful and damning investigation of the state's negligence with the nursing home crisis:
5,368 dead and counting: An investigation of state failures as crisis rampaged through N.J. nursing homes
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...crisis-rampaged-through-nj-nursing-homes.html
"More than 40% of the coronavirus deaths in the state have been tied to long-term care settings — a staggering toll that includes the elderly, decorated soldiers, patients with dementia. Based on the state’s own numbers, that means roughly 1 in 13 people who were in long-term care when the pandemic started in New Jersey are now dead — 5,368 to date. Scores of nursing home employees died as well."
5,368 dead and counting: An investigation of state failures as crisis rampaged through N.J. nursing homes
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...crisis-rampaged-through-nj-nursing-homes.html
"More than 40% of the coronavirus deaths in the state have been tied to long-term care settings — a staggering toll that includes the elderly, decorated soldiers, patients with dementia. Based on the state’s own numbers, that means roughly 1 in 13 people who were in long-term care when the pandemic started in New Jersey are now dead — 5,368 to date. Scores of nursing home employees died as well."
You should understand that HCQ is the one treatment that nobody is gonna get rich off of. It’s been around for 40 years and is widely available as a generic.
Many people have a financial interest in HCQ not proving effective. Big pharma would love for HCQ to be debunked.
Consider this when you see all the slanted studies that show HCQ as not effective and or dangerous. Someone wants you to believe that.
Unfortunately this has been very common with this virus all around the country.
Do you really think "Big Pharma" cares about making money from covid19? Gilead donated their entire Remdesivir stock - billions worth and allowed generic manufacturers in third world countries to start making it. When was the last time any company in any industry did that? Willingly give up billions. Apple? Sony? Exxon? Gucci? Hollywood? I dare you. Come up with one.
If you only knew the sacrifice that some people are making (who happen to be working for "big pharma") to help fight covid19.
Yes, nurses and doctors are getting all the recognition right now (and deservedly so) but the real heroes who will stem the tide against this pathogen will only get more vilification from the general public.
It has. There have been failures in preventing spread inside LTCs, which as you point out is widespread throughout the country. There's the additional fact that there are no perfectly healthy people in nursing homes. It's a ready-made recipe for disaster.
Read the article. Damning critique of Murphy by the liberal NJ.com.
"Despite the governor’s criticism of nursing home operators, the long-term care facility in New Jersey with the most deaths is the state-run Veterans Memorial Home in Paramus, which as of Monday reported 79 dead and 283 residents testing positive for COVID-19."
Long piece, but worth it if you are interested in the truth.
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this guy is obsessed with it, and posts about it everyday despite no evidence it works. There must be some angle. He is tied to it like an anchor to a boat.
Great news?
Georgia:
"Deaths, meanwhile, rose by 78, marking the most since the same number was reached on April 27 and bringing the total toll to 1,775."
"Also Thursday, Kemp said he’d ordered an official review into how the state was compiling its numbers, following the revelation that the Department of Public Health included the results of 57,000 antibody tests in its data “since early April.”
The snafu produced potentially misleading information because antibody tests can only confirm previous exposure to the coronavirus, not an active infection.
“We’re not perfect. We make mistakes,” Kemp said."
&
"The bungle followed at least three others involving Georgia’s coronavirus information, including a since-corrected chart that wrongly showed steady declines in new cases because the dates weren’t listed in chronological order."
Florida
"In neighboring Florida, which this month saw some beaches abruptly closed after being swarmed by sun-worshippers, the Department of Health on Thursday confirmed 1,204 new cases among the state’s population of 29.5 million, bringing the total to 48,675, according to the Miami Herald."
^^Highest new case total in a month.^^
Texas
"The seven-day average of new cases rose fairly steadily from around 1,000 on May 1, when Gov. Greg Abbott began lifting the lockdown he ordered March 19, but began dipping on Sunday and is now around 1,250, according to a chart prepared by the Tribune."
The title I'd say is accurate, there has been no catastrophe, but the article is not painting a rosy picture either. Not great news imo. News we can live with in light of the situation? OK.
Stop cherry picking daily #'s and citing # of cases (which is very dependent on testing). Look at trends with hospitalizations and deaths. Great news in all 3 states.
New cases in FL popped for 1 day and then immediately dropped back into the 700's. Let's stick with the facts. Thanks!
I read it. And I'm not saying Murphy has handled the LTC situation well at all, but I also know he was put in an impossible situation.
He's forced to decide who get's PPE. Hospitals or LTC's. It's a no win situation.
What Murphy has going against him which other Governors do not is that outside of NYC no state has been hit as hard as NJ. But the %'s of deaths from LTC's is high all across the country.
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"The seven-day average of new cases rose fairly steadily from around 1,000 on May 1, when Gov. Greg Abbott began lifting the lockdown he ordered March 19, but began dipping on Sunday and is now around 1,250, according to a chart prepared by the Tribune."
Great news!!!
Got behind a car coming home from work the other day... Every time someone was coming the other way, they hit the brakes... in a 45mph zone this person hit a high of 32..... when the rd finally went to 2 lanes at a stop sign, I pulled up alongside... Was a woman wearing a faceshield, mask, and gloves alone in car with windows rolled up..... I mean c'mon now.... would totally understand if this person was driving a bus... But alone in a car????? SMDH
Not just the country other parts of the world too.
https://www.tampabay.com/news/healt...deaths-tick-upward-widespread-testing-stalls/
"Coronavirus has ravaged long-term care centers across the state, with about 46 percent of deaths tied to the facilities, according to state data. As of Friday, 1,043 deaths in the state were from these centers. In Tampa Bay, about 61 percent of the area’s deaths are from long-term care facilities"
Great News!!!
I hate to troll, but since it's allowed, I'd like to push back a bit against a certain narrative.
"Coronavirus has ravaged long-term care centers across the state, with about 46 percent of deaths tied to the facilities, according to state data. As of Friday, 1,043 deaths in the state were from these centers. In Tampa Bay, about 61 percent of the area’s deaths are from long-term care facilities"
Great News!!!
I hate to troll, but since it's allowed, I'd like to push back a bit against a certain narrative.
The article shines a light on his (and his team's) gross incompetence. Add to this his policy of sending corona+ patients back to nursing homes, there will be much more coming out on this scandal. And hold onto your hats for the lawsuits.
Poor job trolling. FL has over twice the pop of NJ and 5 times less LTC deaths. Any questions?
:)
Second stylist at the same salon tested positive and was working with mild symptoms and may have exposed 56 more clients.
https://www.ky3.com/content/news/Se...ps-tests-positive-for-COVID-19-570724181.html
The article shines light on our lack of PPE, testing, and overall preparedness as a nation.
NJ, because of it's proximity to NY, which in itself was allowed to be so exposed because of a lack of federal preparedness, is just further up the timeline then most states.
What you said is possible. However, there's a simpler explanation: HCQ/CQ are dangerous and cause greater side effects (particularly much higher rates of ventricular arrhythmias) and mortality and combined with the very high HCQ/CQ treatment rate since late March (after the hype started), this is why the overall rates on vents in NYC/US (and likely everywhere) are greater than they would be if HCQ/CQ weren't being used.
If we use NYC as a surrogate for the Lancet study (it has had the most patients and most of the patients in the Lancet study were from the US, meaning it's very likely a sizable proportion came from NYC), then the percentage of hospitalized patients intubated is approximately 17% (22% to ICU and 79% of those on vents), as per the WebMD link.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200520/1-in-5-hospitalized-nyc-covid-patients-needed-icu#1
In addition, a good estimate of the percentage of NYC hospitalized patients on HCQ/CQ is about 82%, based on the JAMA study in NYC, where out of 1438 randomly selected patients, 735 (51.1%) received HCQ/AZ, 271 (18.8%) received HCQ alone, 211 (14.7%) received AZ alone, and 221 (15.4%) received neither drug. So, if one takes out the AZ-only data, HCQ treated patients are 82% of the total.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766117
However, it should be noted that the JAMA NYC study was conducted on patients who were hospitalized between 4/-9-4/27, which was probably the height of HCQ use, given Trump's numerous statements hawking HCQ/AZ from around 3/20-4/15 and before many papers started coming out in mid/late April questioning the efficacy and safety of HCQ.
In comparison, the Lancet study had patients hospitalized from January through early April (with all patients discharged/dead by 4/21), meaning a much greater percentage were treated before the HCQ hype, so it's not that surprising that this study had a much lower % on HCQ/CQ (but I wouldn't have thought it would be only 15%, but that shouldn't really matter).
If one assumes the Lancet study is "correct" that 20.6% of HCQ/CQ patients get intubated and 7.7% of non-HCQ/CQ patients get intubated and we use the JAMA study ratio of 82/18 HCQ+CQ to non-HCQ/CQ for NYC patients, in general, then we'd expect to see 18.3% of overall patients becoming intubated in NYC hospitals, assuming they all have 82/18 ratios of HCQ/CQ to non-HCQ/CQ patients in their hospitals, which is not far from the 17% intubated number in NYC from the WebMD data.
The point of this analysis is not to unequivocally say that the Lancet study is 100% perfectly correct - it's to say that it's plausible it's generally correct, that HCQ/CQ offer no efficacy advantages and probably are truly associated with greater ventricular arrhythmia, intubation and death.
Last point: if the NYC HCQ/CQ treatment prevalence data of >80% is correct for the US and probably many other countries (didn't look at Europe, but we know usage went up everywhere), or even if it's just 50-60%, then without even doing any "studies" it's not hard to conclude that HCQ/CQ offer no mortality reduction benefit, given that US case mortality rates steadily climbed from 2.9% as of 4/1 (when all deaths would likely have been from cases before HCQ use skyrocketed, given the 2-4 week delay from infection to death) to 5.8% as of 5/1.
Surely, if 40, 50, or even 80% of patients were now being treated with HCQ, if it offered a mortality benefit, we would not have seen the CFR double would we? This is what I've been saying all along and why I think you're actually not seeing the big picture here. Have at your prophylaxis arguments, but I don't think there's any argument you'll be able to make to make me think that HCQ/CQ is helping hospitalized patients - on the contrary, I think the Lancet and other publications have it right and we should stop using HCQ/CQ in all hospital settings, apart from ongoing clinical trials.
If Trump wasn't still strolling around in early March as if this was nothing to be worried about then maybe NYC and NJ would not have been hit so hard.
But he's still acting like this is not that big a deal, so I guess Murphy should have known from the beginning that the president was completely derelict?
Nice try. Murphy screwed up due to poor decisions and dangerous policies. Murphy failed to take action even after NYC was starting to blow up.
Whataboutism? Nah, more like a sequence of events or cause and effect type situation.
Nice try. Murphy screwed up due to poor decisions and dangerous policies. Murphy failed to take action even after NYC was starting to blow up.
But hey you've already admitted you don't take this subject seriously, so I get it.
It's called accountability. Murphy screwed the pooch. Cuomo started off by doing an awful job, but has learned and gotten better. This reflects in how both states are doing.
NJ percent of state deaths in nursing homes from covid compared to overall is just at the national average. Facts matter.
Wrong Murphy shut down the state and you screamed it's just the flu bro, everyone is a chicken little, hysteria. Me and my family are still flying to Florida next month. Can't wait for the empty planes because of the fear.
Nice try. Murphy screwed up due to poor decisions and dangerous policies. Murphy failed to take action even after NYC was starting to blow up.
he screamed hysteria when Murphy shut down the state, and called him chicken little. Everything murphy does bad to this twit.
ya and how did trump do??? 15 cases soon to be zero, thank you president XI for your transparency, it will magically go away, 1 person from China that's all, you'll see in April it will magically disappear, sent our PPE to China. Explain it please. We know you can't.
It all starts at the top. Remember Trump was calling this the Democrats new hoax on Feb 28th, saying "it's going to go away" on March 12th. So when that proved to be completely false, and Trump had no ability to deal with the matter, it fell into the governors laps. Unfortunately for NY and NJ, they were more susceptible to infection, due to international travel, then the rest of the country.
This is probably about the time where you report a post as being political so as to have it taken down, but whatever, you've admitted your intent, trolling a coronavirus thread is fun for you, so whatever.
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