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I've long since run out of patience... but NJ is now running out of patients.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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I've long since run out of patience... but NJ is now running out of patients.
Two weeks ago Florida reported 4,825 new cases out of 240,595 tests.
Last week 5,343 positives out of 172,124
This week 7,383 out of 223,801
So a 50% increase in new cases, in 2 weeks, despite a decrease in testing.
Do politicians make themselves look stupid by pushing agenda's? No doubt about it. Can we go back to shutting down so much of the economy again? I don't think so.
But don't fool yourselves into thinking this thing is done.
Last week 5,343 positives out of 172,124
This week 7,383 out of 223,801
So a 50% increase in new cases, in 2 weeks, despite a decrease in testing.
Do politicians make themselves look stupid by pushing agenda's? No doubt about it. Can we go back to shutting down so much of the economy again? I don't think so.
But don't fool yourselves into thinking this thing is done.
I don't disagree we need to open things up, but do consider that, by opening up, our #'s will increase, so by bringing them down as much as possible we are lowering our starting point for the increase, which hopefully enables us to manage the situation going fwd.
I don’t think it is done, but it doesn’t matter at this point. Life has to go back to normal. We accomplished our goal of flattening the curve and also figuring out how to better treat it. That’s it. Now we slowly open back up and it is what it is going forward.
NJ families can't grieve together at funerals, earn a living in many industries, go pray at church, mosque or synagogue, but they can bring a thousand friends to protest.
The hypocrisy is unfathomably wrong
CV is real, some measures were put in place for good reason , but enough of the double standards here in NJ and I'm sure elsewhere
It's gone from a 2% infection rate to a 3% infection rate. Nothing to get freaked out about.
Point was the increase in #'s. 50% increase in new cases in 2 weeks with less testing. If that rate continues, that is not good.
What if the flattening is only temporary?
I agree open up, at least as best you can, but back to normal is not at all what we should be doing.
And do note the increase in Florida is not with that state at back to normal.
Who says it will increase and who cares. Most aren't having symptoms. Are hospitalizations up? If not life goes on. The shutdown were not done to eliminate the virus but to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. Mission accomplished.
When I say back to normal I mean kids have to go back to school in the fall. Youth sports should start back up. We should still wear masks at stores and there should be some precautions but that is it. I think it is still early to open up indoor bars and clubs.
Wow, nice cherry picking data. Here are the full facts:
Week --- Positive Testing Rate
4/26 --- 6.12%
5/3 --- 3.52%
5/10 --- 3.19%
5/17 --- 1.88%
5/24 --- 3.51%
5/31 --- 3.62%
Overall, FL's positive confirmation rate is lower since opening up. Great news.
Arizona's #'s look real bad.
Past 5 weeks % of positive cases: 5, 5, 6, 9, 12.
All their hospitalization metrics, from inpatient, to ICU, to ventilator, to incubation are all rising. The last of those, as I heard, and someone noted a page or two back in this thread is near akin to a death sentence.
On March 26th the total # of ICU beds in Arizona was 857. 536 were in use 321 were available.
Yesterday 1203 were in use and 364 were available. So they increased the total # of ICU beds to 1567, an increase of about 80%, yet they are currently using a higher % of those beds (77%) then they were on March 26th (63%).
Hard to find #'s on Florida's hospitilizations.
As I noted in post above, Az's hospitilizations are way up. Especially ICU beds.
And we can't say mission accomplished if the virus is still here. Maybe we can say we've done a good job so far, but I'd think it would be best to continue to do a good job as opposed to saying, "done".
I didn't go into those earlier weeks because they are now testing way more people.
About 120K tests in the week beginning 5/10.
About 240K tests in the week beginning 5/17.
So yeah, not cherry picking at all, and the last 3 weeks are anything but great news.
So pick the lowest week and use that as a baseline to make your point. That is the definition of cherry picking.
Totally agree.
I've been pretty consistent about this since early on, we need to consider the economy, and I think we are seeing that outdoor is much better then indoor, and we do see kids fair significantly better, so yeah, learn from that an open up appropriately. But a crowded bar, or a crowded club? A concert? I just don't think that can be in the cards. Restaurants seem real tricky too since you can not eat with a mask on.
I know people often mention planes, but at least there everyone can wear a mask, not so much at these other places.
That wasn't the lowest week. Week before was lower, week before that was below 90K tests, so significantly lower. So you are completely wrong on this.
I picked the week when the testing increased dramatically, and has held fairly steady since(although has decreased a bit) in order to compare like sample sizes.
So again, not cherry picking.
It's the lowest week (2%) and you're cherry picking. Next time, post all of the data and allow people to see the entire truth. You are better than this.
The increase in testing week was a very objective starting point. Comparing %'s from a week in which half the tests were performed would be like comparing the # of new cases in a week in which half the tests were performed.
Don't try to warp the conversation. We can all hope those Florida #'s are more a blip then a trend, but they do not look good.
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50% increase ? I think you’re off a bit on the figures but not arguing the point... simply people are exercising their opinions against the skewed information being offered by scientists and leading medical professionals. I ‘ll repeat “ don’t say it’s ok to have hundreds to thousands intermingled and the rest should stay home, inside, confined and think everything is ok .“ If 80% of the US population is going to contract this virus eventually , it makes no sense to expect us to cower in fear . Because so many are disregarding the quarantine rules, those set by our illustrious governors , it is time to push back. Sounds cavalier and reckless ? Just another type of protest by our silent citizens.
Yes you can say mission accomplished. They virus is nearing the end of its cycle in the North East. The goal was to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. Now most are not even close to normal capacity. Any spike from beach crowds and protectors will be minimal as most have already been exposed over these months.
and I still believe that they are limiting parking in colonial park shutting down the main road, its absolutely absurd
Initial mission "barely accomplished" in the NE US. We barely kept up with hospitalizations and had 65K die in the DC-Boston corridor (with over half of those in metro NYC). Seoul, SK has a similar pop/density as NYC metro and had <100 deaths. We obviously could've done much better.
And it's nowhere near over, as roughly 10-20% of NJ/NY have been infected, based on antibody tests (with a few NYC neighborhoods reaching 30-40% infected) and herd immunity is somewhere between 55-80% (depending on the R0 transmission rate, which simply isn't known, exactly), so while that's a dent in reaching herd immunity, there's still a long way to go and if we "go back to normal" tens of thousands more will die with no cure or vaccine yet. Instead of retyping, below is what I've generally said a few times and repeated in the Alabama thread a few minutes ago. Still many unknowns and we're not out of the woods yet, by a longshot, but I think there's hope on the medical side.
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I'm seeing a lot more herd immunity is good stuff lately on social media from the same people that told us to bolt your doors down in April and May.
I'm trying to figure out what changed their minds.
I'm trying to figure out what changed their minds.
I've dabbled with the idea, because it always kind of seemed like we are all(mostly) going to get it.
At this point I'm still not sure, but I am pretty sure, to get to that point there is going to be a heavy toll, both in terms of stress on the health care system as well as deaths.
Even if it weakens.
The virus has been clamped down in the NE due to very strict restrictions, but I'm not see we are near the end of the cycle. Still looks like once we open up a 2nd wave in the fall is a major concern.
50% of 4800 is 2400. 4800 + 2400 is 7200.
The experts saying the protests don't come with a significant health hazard? Ya that is certainly not the point I am trying to make.
We'd probably be better off if we get the second wave going before winter and flu season hits. I expect NY/NJ will probably wind up having to re-pause at some point.
By the fall like most virus they change and rarely for the worse. This one has been different in the beginning. It seemed to be very contagious and that has changed a lot in open states. Yes there is change in positive rate but not spiking dramatically as the media are saying. And numbers certainly don't support nationwide. Everyone keeps saying it coming back in the fall. Numbers and history don't support that. It will come back in some form but no one knows for sure when and certainly in what form. Positive rates are now less important than hospitalized. If hospitals start getting overwhelmed again than it will continue to be a world pandemic for another winter.
It's clear we don't know how this thing progresses. This thing weakening would certainly be a good thing. But it could weaken and still be a major concern.
We don't have hospitilization #'s from Florida, but the #'s I posted from Az, are not good, the Texas #'s after a bit of a dip have returned near their highs. I wouldn't call it a spike, and not to the point where they are overwhelmed, but also trending upward.
Remember NYC was on the verge of being completely overwhelmed. It was held off, in large part because we beefed up our capabilities, but also because we locked things down.
Now we will be better prepared and we will likely still have restrictions in place, but I don't think that equates to this thing being "over".
For right or wrong NJ is looking to get it's new cases #'s down to a very low #. Could that, plus further measures that are not economic restrictions,plus a % of the population already with antibodies, keep us from getting overwhelmed in a 2nd wave? Hopefully.
They already are spiking, so yeah, not a good combo.
Additional doctors claiming virus is losing https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ay-coronavirus-appears-declining-potency.html
Didn't read it due to an ad blocker issue, but I wonder if some of this is not just social distancing and masks limiting viral load, but would be great if true.
I understand the increases from week 1 to 2 up 500 ... from week 2-3 up 2000 cases ... if that is actual . Also the aggregate of the population by ...week #1 250k ...week #2 172 k ...week # 3 223 k to me and no offense seems as the 50% is not a true figure . I see how you get the number I just believe it’s not a true indicator of the spread. Why put restrictions on ...we already have restrictions and quarantine for those who abide by them. People will not listen going forward... wear a mask and social distance but the time for all America to get back is now.
Lots of controversy about the question as to whether the virus is "weakening". I tend to think it's the combination of social distancing and masks, along with warmer/sunnier weather, that is leading to fewer cases and lower viral loads. We should know a lot more in the next month or so, as many areas have started to open back up and there have been so many large gatherings (protests).
Along the same line, I wonder if anyone has looked at the distribution of case severity in terms of viral load exposure. What I mean is...say I go out to the grocery store and get briefly exposed to a small amount of virus. I come home, get mildly ill, but am shedding virus continuously for days in my house (including before I realize I'm sick)...where my wife is exposed. Is she likely to have a more severe infection since she was exposed to more virus over a longer period?
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