COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[WhiteBus]

It's clear we don't know how this thing progresses. This thing weakening would certainly be a good thing. But it could weaken and still be a major concern.

We don't have hospitilization #'s from Florida, but the #'s I posted from Az, are not good, the Texas #'s after a bit of a dip have returned near their highs. I wouldn't call it a spike, and not to the point where they are overwhelmed, but also trending upward.

Remember NYC was on the verge of being completely overwhelmed. It was held off, in large part because we beefed up our capabilities, but also because we locked things down.
Now we will be better prepared and we will likely still have restrictions in place, but I don't think that equates to this thing being "over".

When I say it is over, I am saying the worst is over. I don't see it returning to the beginning. I'm saying that the fear of hospitals overwhelmed is behind us. Those that became sick and sadly passed away are now not in the future equation any longer. The devastating loss of life is now way beyond its peak simply because that segment of the population is no longer available for the next round. The only way this gets worse if it mutates in some form to attack a different group in the next round. Possible sure, no doubt. Likely? Not really. This current version has taken the weak but has not been a force to the rest.

 

[RU-05]

I understand the increases from week 1 to 2 up 500 ... from week 2-3 up 2000 cases ... if that is actual . Also the aggregate of the population by ...week #1 250k ...week #2 172 k ...week # 3 223 k to me and no offense seems as the 50% is not a true figure . I see how you get the number I just believe it’s not a true indicator of the spread. Why put restrictions on ...we already have restrictions and quarantine for those who abide by them. People will not listen going forward... wear a mask and social distance but the time for all America to get back is now.

I'm getting if from the Florida dashboard, so no offense taking.

 

[RU-05]

When I say it is over, I am saying the worst is over. I don't see it returning to the beginning. I'm saying that the fear of hospitals overwhelmed is behind us. Those that became sick and sadly passed away are now not in the future equation any longer. The devastating loss of life is now way beyond its peak simply because that segment of the population is no longer available for the next round. The only way this gets worse if it mutates in some form to attack a different group in the next round. Possible sure, no doubt. Likely? Not really. This current version has taken the weak but has not been a force to the rest.

I too doubt we get back to the point where 800/900+ people are dyng per day in NYC, and 2000+ people are dying on average every day in the country. But right now we are seeing Az above it's March 26th capacity of ICU beds. We are, in the middle of summer, after 2 months of heavy restrictions still seeing on average about 800 deaths per day.

 

[WhiteBus]

I too doubt we get back to the point where 800/900+ people are dyng per day in NYC, and 2000+ people are dying on average every day in the country. But right now we are seeing Az above it's March 26th capacity of ICU beds. We are, in the middle of summer, after 2 months of heavy restrictions still seeing on average about 800 deaths per day.

You keep bringing up AZ and I'm not arguing with you about the numbers reported at all but in the beginning they had almost nothing and are now getting hit hard so they are hitting their peak now. And spurned by opening before they hit their peak which in some way is understandable. But if you look at the country as a whole, if you look at the hardest hit areas the trend is way down. I look at the southern states that have been opened for weeks and some numbers are slightly up except two. Hospitalized and deaths. All trending down. This virus is acting like all the others. I keep saying that as the numbers show. We are far down the cycle of a normal virus. The worst, thankfully is in the rear view mirror.

 

[RU848789]

Don't think this link needs any further comment, lol...

https://www.psypost.org/2020/06/psy...uidelines-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic-56980

 

[RU848789]

Looking at the world, it's hard to imagine the virus has "weakened" at all, as a few are saying (without any proof). What we're seeing is a shift of the worst death rates from the US and Europe to South/Central America and the Caribbean, as per the graphic below. Some other excellent content in this Financial Times article. Yes, overall deaths have gone down a fair amount since April, but that's obviously been the result of shutdowns and other interventions like wearing masks and social distancing in the hard hit countries of Europe and the US. The major increases in death rates in many other countries certainly don't make one think that the virus is any weaker or less transmissible. One particularly concerning comment is below, about excess deaths, especially in hard hit countries without good medical/documentation systems:

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

There are concerns, however, that reported Covid-19 deaths are not capturing the true impact of coronavirus on mortality around the world. The FT has gathered and analysed data on excess mortality — the numbers of deaths over and above the historical average — across the globe, and has found that death tolls in some countries are more than 50 per cent higher than usual. In many countries, these excess deaths exceed reported numbers of Covid-19 deaths by large margins.

 

[Scarlet83]

Thanks for this thread on the RU football board. I don’t hear enough about the virus everywhere else I go. Please also start a thread on racial injustice.

There is A LOT of great information on this thread, intermixed with some bad information. A large majority of us really appreciate the great information. If you don’t, then don’t f in click on the thread. Use your f in brain.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

There is A LOT of great information on this thread, intermixed with some bad information. A large majority of us really appreciate the great information. If you don’t, then don’t f in click on the thread. Use your f in brain.

Same could be said for the CE Board

 

[RUhasarrived]

If the Governor can stand shoulder to shoulder in a BLM march,then we can work out on individual machines in a gym.Thee but not for me.

 

[WhiteBus]

Looking at the world, it's hard to imagine the virus has "weakened" at all, as a few are saying (without any proof). What we're seeing is a shift of the worst death rates from the US and Europe to South/Central America and the Caribbean, as per the graphic below. Some other excellent content in this Financial Times article. One particularly concerning comment is below, about excess deaths, especially in hard hit countries without good medical/documentation systems:

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

There are concerns, however, that reported Covid-19 deaths are not capturing the true impact of coronavirus on mortality around the world. The FT has gathered and analysed data on excess mortality — the numbers of deaths over and above the historical average — across the globe, and has found that death tolls in some countries are more than 50 per cent higher than usual. In many countries, these excess deaths exceed reported numbers of Covid-19 deaths by large margins.

Has it not weakened in the US??

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

If the Governor can stand shoulder to shoulder in a BLM march,then we can work out on individual machines in a gym.Thee but not for me.

There are no votes to be had in the gym apparently

 

[Crazed_RU]

There is A LOT of great information on this thread, intermixed with some bad information. A large majority of us really appreciate the great information. If you don’t, then don’t f in click on the thread. Use your f in brain.

How about you use your brain before you curse at me. This comment you are referencing was moved from a new thread that someone started about Covid. Another thread on Covid was not necessary since it is all around us every single day. Apparently the mods agreed with me and moved that whole thread here. Have a great day.

 

[RU#1fan]

Don't think this link needs any further comment, lol...

https://www.psypost.org/2020/06/psy...uidelines-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic-56980

How true. Psyhopaths in this country causing the pandemic to worsen.

 

[bac2therac]

Murphy is a hypocritical dbag...he is out protesting while he has in state at home orders...nothing but a power grab and its going to cause any future wave to be ignored. The sheer lunacy of a politician telling people what is valuable in their life like a protest but yet other things are not important like funerals or even running your business. It just boggles the mind and I dare someone here to make a defense of it.

 

[e5fdny]

Don't think this link needs any further comment, lol...

https://www.psypost.org/2020/06/psy...uidelines-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic-56980

How true. Psyhopaths in this country causing the pandemic to worsen.

I don't know about worsening it but it was interesting to see in the article and the study how it only covered the one side...the nonchalant attitude and not the OCD part of this too. We all know those who have acted like a "psychopath" when it comes to this whole COVID-19 thing. Some even in this thread...

- No mask! or You're wearing it wrong!
- You're standing to close to me!
- I need that pack of toilet paper more than you!
- No dissent! "They" know more than us. How dare you question _____ statement/thoughts/opinions on the particular matter.

 

[RUhasarrived]

Murphy is a hypocritical dbag...he is out protesting while he has in state at home orders...nothing but a power grab and its going to cause any future wave to be ignored. The sheer lunacy of a politician telling people what is valuable in their life like a protest but yet other things are not important like funerals or even running your business. It just boggles the mind and I dare someone here to make a defense of it.

It's time for Steve Rogers to get into the ring for next year.I'm wearing his 2021 T-Shirt on my walk in Nutley today.No,I will not be wearing a mask.

 

[RobertG]

Don't think this link needs any further comment, lol...

https://www.psypost.org/2020/06/psy...uidelines-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic-56980

The Soviet Union used this tactic to punish dissenters. Comply or be accused of being mentally unfit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_abuse_of_psychiatry_in_the_Soviet_Union#:~:text=Psychiatric diagnoses such as the,used in cases of dissidents.

During the leadership of General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev, psychiatry was used to disable and remove from society political opponents ("dissidents") who openly expressed beliefs that contradicted the official dogma.[4][5] The term "philosophical intoxication", for instance, was widely applied to the mental disorders diagnosed when people disagreed with the country's Communist leaders and, by referring to the writings of the Founding Fathers of Marxism–Leninism—Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels, and Vladimir Lenin—made them the target of criticism.[

 

[RUBigFrank]

Hard to separate the politics from the science on covid. Even data from state to state is not consistently gathered.

 

[albanyknight]

The most helpful thing people can do to keep this thread on point is to take a few seconds before posting and ask yourself if what you are about to write is to make a political point or does it provide helpful and useful information as it is related to the virus?

Most of us want to know about potential treatments/cures and ways to protect ourselves and our families. Discussing the behavior of government officials and governmental policies is completely subjective and does nothing but send this thread in the wrong direction.

 

[albanyknight]

Hard to separate the politics from the science on covid. Even data from state to state is not consistently gathered.

Yes, that is true. And of course we all bring our own biases into the discussion whether they are political or otherwise.

But you don't have to be very perceptive to tell the difference between those who are here for purely political purposes versus those who really want a honest thread that discusses the issues versus those who don't.

 

[RUBOB72]

The most helpful thing people can do to keep this thread on point is to take a few seconds before posting and ask yourself if what you are about to write is to make a political point or does it provide helpful and useful information as it is related to the virus?

Most of us want to know about potential treatments/cures and ways to protect ourselves and our families. Discussing the behavior of government officials and governmental policies is completely subjective and does nothing but send this thread in the wrong direction.

No ... discussing the attitudes and mis-information being thrown around by people from those in charge is quite relative. Murphy needs to protest in front of his Colts Neck hacienda. While we continue to mask , quarantine and shelter in place at our homes. Diametrically opposite of what is for our safety versus his safety.

 

[albanyknight]

No ... discussing the attitudes and mis-information being thrown around by people from those in charge is quite relative. Murphy needs to protest in front of his Colts Neck hacienda. While we continue to mask , quarantine and shelter in place at our homes. Diametrically opposite of what is for our safety versus his safety.

Please see my post right above yours.

 

[Scarlet83]

Did you know that sometimes you can have sex without a condom and not get the woman pregnant.

Boom!

 

[T2Kplus10]

Today's daily reversal via the WHO or CDC:

Asymptomatic coronavirus patients aren’t spreading most new infections, WHO says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asy...-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

Key points:
Coronavirus patients who don’t have symptoms aren’t driving spread of the virus, the World Health Organization said Monday.

Preliminary evidence from the earliest outbreaks indicated the virus could spread even if people don’t have symptoms.

But the WHO says that while asympomatic spread can occur, it is not a main driver of transmission.

 

[Caliknight]

Two weeks ago Florida reported 4,825 new cases out of 240,595 tests.

Last week 5,343 positives out of 172,124

This week 7,383 out of 223,801

So a 50% increase in new cases, in 2 weeks, despite a decrease in testing.

Do politicians make themselves look stupid by pushing agenda's? No doubt about it. Can we go back to shutting down so much of the economy again? I don't think so.

But don't fool yourselves into thinking this thing is done.

Wait till we see the numbers coming from the riots/protests.

 

[LETSGORU91]

Lots of controversy about the question as to whether the virus is "weakening". I tend to think it's the combination of social distancing and masks, along with warmer/sunnier weather, that is leading to fewer cases and lower viral loads. We should know a lot more in the next month or so, as many areas have started to open back up and there have been so many large gatherings (protests).

Along the same line, I wonder if anyone has looked at the distribution of case severity in terms of viral load exposure. What I mean is...say I go out to the grocery store and get briefly exposed to a small amount of virus. I come home, get mildly ill, but am shedding virus continuously for days in my house (including before I realize I'm sick)...where my wife is exposed. Is she likely to have a more severe infection since she was exposed to more virus over a longer period?

I think viral exposure played a large role in determining the severity of symptoms back when this started. Front line workers in NJ are now reporting incoming/admitted patients have not had as severe of symptoms and are being intubated very infrequently. Sequestering, distancing and masking all reduce viral transmission to another host. I doubt it is a coincidence all three were implemented and the result was fewer sick people, less admissions and a drastic reduction in ICU/ventilated patients.

 

[RU-05]

Wait till we see the numbers coming from the riots/protests.

I agree, not good.


In addition I think the riots speak to the negative impact on mental health that keeping people locked down with no job to go to has had. Certainly something you have to factor in when thinking about keeping this locked down, or lock downs in the future.

 

[albanyknight]

You were banned at least 6x from that board...outing posters and a vile attack on a mods family...that is reality everyone needs to know

Two time-outs, one ban. Never outed a poster and never made a vile attack on a posters family.

The one time-out was when I posted a picture with one of our posters in it. He was part of a group of four. Never identified him. Posted the heading............Would you take financial advice from this group?" Got my one and only time-out from Richie for that and am glad I did that. So, lie #1. Other than that, I have never "outed a poster." Prove me wrong. I will be waiting.

Was banned by Otterstadt for making the innocuous comment wondering why we had to get regular updates on a moderators family member's cancer recovery. This was after the moderator posted a half-dozen vile personal attacks against me in a single thread. It should also be noted that during this time, my Dad died, my best friend died and my wife almost died from an ectopic pregnancy. Yet not once, did I bring my issues to this board. In fact my brother is fighting for his life right now with lung cancer. Should I update the board on a regular basis?

I defy you to prove the above to be wrong. In fact since I do know who you are, I will bet you $10,000 dollars in a contract drawn up by a lawyer that I am telling the truth. Let me know where and when to meet to sign the agreement.

 

[albanyknight]

Looking for #7!

You have been banned far more than I have. Which is why you have multiple screen names.

How pathetic that you, Bacteria and the Fraud of Beverly Hills are still initiating attacks on me on a thread that does a lot of good for a lot of people all after the three of you more than any other three posters are directly responsible for the closing down of the Current Events Board.

I thought all three of you were leaving for the other board. What happened? Let me guess. That community won't stand for the crap that you have made your living at on this board?

 

[Caliknight]

 

[RU848789]

​

Looking at the world, it's hard to imagine the virus has "weakened" at all, as a few are saying (without any proof). What we're seeing is a shift of the worst death rates from the US and Europe to South/Central America and the Caribbean, as per the graphic below. Some other excellent content in this Financial Times article. Yes, overall deaths have gone down a fair amount since April, but that's obviously been the result of shutdowns and other interventions like wearing masks and social distancing in the hard hit countries of Europe and the US. The major increases in death rates in many other countries certainly don't make one think that the virus is any weaker or less transmissible. One particularly concerning comment is below, about excess deaths, especially in hard hit countries without good medical/documentation systems:

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

There are concerns, however, that reported Covid-19 deaths are not capturing the true impact of coronavirus on mortality around the world. The FT has gathered and analysed data on excess mortality — the numbers of deaths over and above the historical average — across the globe, and has found that death tolls in some countries are more than 50 per cent higher than usual. In many countries, these excess deaths exceed reported numbers of Covid-19 deaths by large margins.

Posted the commentary below, elsewhere yesterday with respect to some people thinking the pandemic is "over" and/or the virus has weakened, including how some countries have greatly reduced virus transmission rates/deaths, due to aggressive interventions. Thought it might be worth sharing here, too and that it fit in well with the article and post above.

What I've said is that it's not inevitable that everyone will get the virus before there's a cure or vaccine, if aggressive interventions are taken, like in SK, Taiwan, China, Japan, Australia and many other countries, which have far less cases per capita (all <300 per 1 MM vs. the US and most of Europe who all have >3000 cases per 1MM (and many, like the US with more than 5000 cases per 1MM).

It's all a matter of transmission rates and total time. By keeping case rates very low, these countries obviously keep death rates very low and if they can continue to do so until there's a cure or even a vaccine, then they'll likely have maybe 1/10th to 1/100th the deaths per capita the US will likely have and many of these countries are doing this without lockdowns. Some countries even appear to have snuffed out viral transmissions completely, although that's very, very difficult with international travel (New Zealand used a full lockdown to get to zero new cases for example, while SK/Taiwan and others have very aggressive testing, tracing, isolating systems to snuff out inevitable flare-ups - and they all wear masks).

What I've also said multiple times is that if the US simply "goes back to normal" with zero internventions to slow transmission (and we don't get lucky with the virus weakening or having many with native immunity and don't get a fast cure/vaccine), then case/death rates will go back up and over months to a year or two, depending on population density and travel patterns for the most part, with rural areas reaching herd immunity (55-80% infected, where that number depends on the R0 of the virus which we simply don't know yet) much more slowly than urban areas, and we'll likely see infection fatality rates of 0.5-1.0% (~1% now in NY and Spain, the only large areas with population antibody test results to know this), so multiplying all of that out gives a range of total US deaths from 900K to 2.6MM. (330MM x 0.55-0.80 = 180-264MM infected and then 0.5-1.0% of those dying gives 900K-2.6MM US deaths eventually).

And in theory, every country would reach similar deaths per capita, assuming no interventions, cures, vaccines or getting lucky with immunity/virus weakening, as the virus is the virus and if allowed to it will infect 55-80% and kill 0.5-1.0% of those - those are simply the numbers without any "help." I've also posted that there are a ton of scenarios between, "go back to normal and let folks die" and aggressive interventions with very low case/death rates and I assume we'll be somewhere in the middle of those two extremes with a fairly slow burn over the next ~6 months with maybe 500-1000 deaths per day (90-180K more deaths on top of our 110K deaths so far).

On the positive side, I really think convalescent plasma and other treatments/improved procedures and finding cases while earlier in disease progression could easily halve death rates and I have pretty good confidence that the engineered antibody approach will be close to a cure for many, greatly reducing deaths by early this fall - and while scaling that up for millions will be hard, we really don't need to - we need to have enough for people who progress to serious enough symptoms that they'd go to a hospital, which is "only" maybe 25,000 patients a week (we've had about 300K hospitalizations in 12 weeks) and we'll have enough for that, so if it's effective, we'll save most of the lives now lost. But until then or some other lucky break happens, I'd far rather take the SK/Taiwan path and save another 100K or more lives over the next 6 months vs. half-assing our interventions. That's what I would do.

 

[T2Kplus10]

[roll][roll][roll]

 

[RU848789]

I think viral exposure played a large role in determining the severity of symptoms back when this started. Front line workers in NJ are now reporting incoming/admitted patients have not had as severe of symptoms and are being intubated very infrequently. Sequestering, distancing and masking all reduce viral transmission to another host. I doubt it is a coincidence all three were implemented and the result was fewer sick people, less admissions and a drastic reduction in ICU/ventilated patients.

Great post. Initial viral load has been loosely correlated with disease severity and it seems very likely that our interventions have led to lower viral loads at infection. The fact that case/death rates are on the increase in many other countries (see my post with the Financial Times graphic on this from last night) clearly says the virus likely has not weakened. It may weaken eventually, like SARS did, but there's no strong evidence to that effect yet.

 

[albanyknight]

And the beat goes on: [roll][roll][roll]

 

[RU848789]

You have been banned far more than I have. Which is why you have multiple screen names.

How pathetic that you, Bacteria and the Fraud of Beverly Hills are still initiating attacks on me on a thread that does a lot of good for a lot of people all after the three of you more than any other three posters are directly responsible for the closing down of the Current Events Board.

I thought all three of you were leaving for the other board. What happened? Let me guess. That community won't stand for the crap that you have made your living at on this board?

AK - I know you wanted to set the record straight and you have, but you do realize you're playing right into their strategy to derail this thread, don't you? It's no coincidence that the CE folks are ganging up on you now.

 

[cohwx]

I think viral exposure played a large role in determining the severity of symptoms back when this started. Front line workers in NJ are now reporting incoming/admitted patients have not had as severe of symptoms and are being intubated very infrequently. Sequestering, distancing and masking all reduce viral transmission to another host. I doubt it is a coincidence all three were implemented and the result was fewer sick people, less admissions and a drastic reduction in ICU/ventilated patients.

Sure and that all makes sense. I'd like to see if someone could study patient records and see if there's a pattern that suggests the second or third or fourth member of a family to get covid often gets a worse case because of the long term/high exposure in the home. Of course, sometimes the first person infected will also get a large initial dose from wherever, but it would be interesting to see if in general subsequent cases in the home were worse than the first.

 

[RU23]

Keep up the good work #’s, loving the info.

 

[cohwx]

AK - I know you wanted to set the record straight and you have, but you do realize you're playing right into their strategy to derail this thread, don't you? It's no coincidence that the CE folks are ganging up on you now.

So where's the moderator who was keeping things in check early on? I got warned at one point for just mentioning Trump and was fine with that, but lately things have just been let go and the quality of the thread has gone way down.

 

[bac2therac]

You have been banned far more than I have. Which is why you have multiple screen names.

How pathetic that you, Bacteria and the Fraud of Beverly Hills are still initiating attacks on me on a thread that does a lot of good for a lot of people all after the three of you more than any other three posters are directly responsible for the closing down of the Current Events Board.

I thought all three of you were leaving for the other board. What happened? Let me guess. That community won't stand for the crap that you have made your living at on this board?

Wow

 

[T2Kplus10]

Wow

I think we broke his brain.