COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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Need more than one day of data to declare a trend
Not good in the rest of Europe either...
Within Europe, countries are closing themselves off. The Czech Republic, Cyprus, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia have all closed themselves off to foreigners. And Germany, the economic engine of the Continent, said that it would partly close its borders with five neighboring countries.
Still, the number of new cases across the Continent continues to surge, and there is growing worry that the health care systems of Spain and France could soon face the kind of dire situation playing out in Italy — where doctors have had to make grim decisions about which patients to treat.
There is a scramble across the Continent to step up production of ventilators, with leaders calling for the kind of effort seen in wartime to produce munitions.
The Spanish government warned on Monday that it would probably extend the state of emergency and keep people indoors beyond the initial period of 15 days.
Jérôme Salomon, a top official at the French health ministry, said the situation was “deteriorating very quickly.” He told France Inter radio on Monday that many people did not seem to be taking calls for social distancing seriously, and he tried to dispel the notion that the virus seriously threatens only the elderly. There are 300 to 400 people in intensive care in France, he said, and roughly half of them are under age 65.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/world/coronavirus-news.html#link-7321a37d
Within Europe, countries are closing themselves off. The Czech Republic, Cyprus, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia have all closed themselves off to foreigners. And Germany, the economic engine of the Continent, said that it would partly close its borders with five neighboring countries.
Still, the number of new cases across the Continent continues to surge, and there is growing worry that the health care systems of Spain and France could soon face the kind of dire situation playing out in Italy — where doctors have had to make grim decisions about which patients to treat.
There is a scramble across the Continent to step up production of ventilators, with leaders calling for the kind of effort seen in wartime to produce munitions.
The Spanish government warned on Monday that it would probably extend the state of emergency and keep people indoors beyond the initial period of 15 days.
Jérôme Salomon, a top official at the French health ministry, said the situation was “deteriorating very quickly.” He told France Inter radio on Monday that many people did not seem to be taking calls for social distancing seriously, and he tried to dispel the notion that the virus seriously threatens only the elderly. There are 300 to 400 people in intensive care in France, he said, and roughly half of them are under age 65.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/world/coronavirus-news.html#link-7321a37d
Spain's a mess, could end up being the worse hit in Europe.
Italy reports 3,233 new cases of coronavirus and 349 new deaths, raising total to 27,980 cases and 2,158 dead. It's getting worse. And Spain might be even worse in a few days and the rest of Europe is heading in Spain's direction. It's why I've been so "energetic" in warning about this. A week ago Italy and South Korea both had 7000 cases. South Korea now has just 8300 cases and new cases are declining. They've been aggressively testing, social distancing, and quarantining (and all wearing masks). We need to follow their model.
What is going on there is what we're likely to see here, at least in densely populated areas (DC-Boston is more densely populated than Lombardy in Northern Italy where the worst of it is and NYC and NJ cities are way more densely populated), unless we ratchet up testing and social distancing and quarantining now. Even more than we just saw today. The real guidance should be "don't come within 6 feet of another human being who is symptomatic or within 3 feet of a human being who is not symptomatic." Period. Full Stop.
We're on day 13 of our self-quarantine. Haven't left the house except for a few 2 am runs to the food store, when it's empty and for walks and stuff, where there are no people. My wife and son have asthma and are immunocompromised, hence our caution. My son is taking his grad classes in data science on line at RU and I'm doing my 8-hr/week consulting gig with my old company on-line (since well before Merck essentially closed sites to all but essential personnel late last week).
I know there are people who can't be this restrictive, as they have to work or take care of others. It's criminal that we don't have enough masks for them, as they should be wearing them, more to prevent spreading the virus to others, given that there are many asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic infected carriers. At the very least they should try to keep away from other people's faces, as I said above, since face-to-face transmission is responsible for 90-95% of transmissions. And they should disinfect and hand wash frequently to prevent the other 5-10% of infections which come from surfaces being touched and then touching one's nose/eyes/mouth - warm soapy water is best, especially for mucus, i.e., snot - alcohol based sanitizers don't work as well for that.
The POTUS should go over all this in an address to the nation, IMO and get the military, FEMA and other parts of the Federal system involved in supporting the States in their efforts to combat this. Stay safe everyone...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/...HacbrytE4JS-uoIab-MBIGNuxzD9WwM#link-7321a37d
What is going on there is what we're likely to see here, at least in densely populated areas (DC-Boston is more densely populated than Lombardy in Northern Italy where the worst of it is and NYC and NJ cities are way more densely populated), unless we ratchet up testing and social distancing and quarantining now. Even more than we just saw today. The real guidance should be "don't come within 6 feet of another human being who is symptomatic or within 3 feet of a human being who is not symptomatic." Period. Full Stop.
We're on day 13 of our self-quarantine. Haven't left the house except for a few 2 am runs to the food store, when it's empty and for walks and stuff, where there are no people. My wife and son have asthma and are immunocompromised, hence our caution. My son is taking his grad classes in data science on line at RU and I'm doing my 8-hr/week consulting gig with my old company on-line (since well before Merck essentially closed sites to all but essential personnel late last week).
I know there are people who can't be this restrictive, as they have to work or take care of others. It's criminal that we don't have enough masks for them, as they should be wearing them, more to prevent spreading the virus to others, given that there are many asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic infected carriers. At the very least they should try to keep away from other people's faces, as I said above, since face-to-face transmission is responsible for 90-95% of transmissions. And they should disinfect and hand wash frequently to prevent the other 5-10% of infections which come from surfaces being touched and then touching one's nose/eyes/mouth - warm soapy water is best, especially for mucus, i.e., snot - alcohol based sanitizers don't work as well for that.
The POTUS should go over all this in an address to the nation, IMO and get the military, FEMA and other parts of the Federal system involved in supporting the States in their efforts to combat this. Stay safe everyone...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/...HacbrytE4JS-uoIab-MBIGNuxzD9WwM#link-7321a37d
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80 new cases in NJ up to 178 now.
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...tal-jumps-to-at-least-176-positive-tests.html
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...tal-jumps-to-at-least-176-positive-tests.html
Just a matter of time before all counties get official cases, but, right now Warren, Sussex and other counties don't have any on the record
Don't tell your consulting client your TKR handle, you may have some explaining to do.
That's pretty discouraging if it doubled over one day, there is no doubt it's going higher but we don't want to see it to the point that it's doubling every day, if it does then we are so ****ed.
I'm hoping the 80 new cases was a weekend total and other cases unknown from the past week.
Yea but how often can you do that every day, every week, every 2 weeks etc...just because you’re negative today doesn’t mean you’re negative tomorrow if you or someone in your household has left the confines of home.
Better and more practical would be if there were enough masks for everyone so everyone could keep their germs to themselves. Unfortunately, that’s not the case either.
As more testing happens, I think doubling will likely be the case. Hope I’m wrong.
The key is assembling data of not when it was found when people got sick but when they got sick, if a lot of these 80 cases are backdated, it's misleading. But with the lack of available testing, that's a problem.
Its going to keep going yp in numbers as we test but thats not necessarily a bad thing...its the death total and those recovered that we need to look at
There is no doubt it's going up in numbers, I fully expect it to be in the thousands, but at what rate it increases is the question, if by next Friday we're only a couple hundred cases more than today, it's concerning but not scary, BUT if we are at thousand or more, that might be the worst case scenario we've been hearing about.
No worries - I'm back in my old department with my old boss (retired in Dec) doing a small subset of "special projects" which is basically solving problems like I used to full time, just at only 8 hrs/wk. She knows I'm telecommuting and encourages it and I've shared a few key CV messages with some of the same folks I share my weather messages with at work.
Excellent. Too bad we didn't secure masks 2 months ago when we should have. And if China was saying no, making masks is pretty damn easy - could've funded an existing factory somewhere to do so.
Anyone hoping for a spring slowdown of CV2 will have to wait longer. While cities in the southern US do have less cases than Seattle and NYC, those two cities are simply hotspots, likely because of superspreaders. If warmth were the driver for some southern locations having less cases, then the inverse would be that similarly situated (with regard to population and transmission) northern, colder cities would all be showing much greater case rates, i.e., Denver, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, etc. would have similar case rates as the two hotspots, Seattle and NYC.
They don't and, by far, the most likely reason we're seeing two hotspots in Seattle and NYC is the early start there and undetected superspreaders, which is why Daegu South Korea, which is in the far south of the country has, by far, the highest case rate in SK, due to a documented superspreader and lack of social distancing in the religious cult down there. Now that doesn't mean warmth couldn't be a minor factor, so far, and a more important factor in the coming weeks, but we're simply not going to heat up fast enough in 2 weeks to avoid what looks to be an inexorable onslaught (I actually think it will be a factor, given known sensitivity of this virus to UV, warmth and humidity, but we just don't have real data for other coronaviruses being seasonal, like flu) of cases in just about every major city (sooner in the hotspots, but not too long after that in other cities) in the United States.
That will all likely happen unless we start aggressively testing (getting there), which is critical to identify infected carriers who don't know they're infected and are spreading the virus, as well as identifying their contacts and quarantining all of them, and enact even more aggressive social distancing, like simply not coming within 3 feet of anyone without symptoms and 6 feet of anyone with symptoms (and continue with hand-washing and hopefully start using masks) - and these actions are important everywhere, but more important in densely populated areas, where there are simply far more interactions. In Seattle/NYC Metro, we're about 5-6 days from where things got out of control in northern Italy. so time is short.
Here's a link to a great analysis of the SK "superspreader" showing how much damage one person can do...
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html
They don't and, by far, the most likely reason we're seeing two hotspots in Seattle and NYC is the early start there and undetected superspreaders, which is why Daegu South Korea, which is in the far south of the country has, by far, the highest case rate in SK, due to a documented superspreader and lack of social distancing in the religious cult down there. Now that doesn't mean warmth couldn't be a minor factor, so far, and a more important factor in the coming weeks, but we're simply not going to heat up fast enough in 2 weeks to avoid what looks to be an inexorable onslaught (I actually think it will be a factor, given known sensitivity of this virus to UV, warmth and humidity, but we just don't have real data for other coronaviruses being seasonal, like flu) of cases in just about every major city (sooner in the hotspots, but not too long after that in other cities) in the United States.
That will all likely happen unless we start aggressively testing (getting there), which is critical to identify infected carriers who don't know they're infected and are spreading the virus, as well as identifying their contacts and quarantining all of them, and enact even more aggressive social distancing, like simply not coming within 3 feet of anyone without symptoms and 6 feet of anyone with symptoms (and continue with hand-washing and hopefully start using masks) - and these actions are important everywhere, but more important in densely populated areas, where there are simply far more interactions. In Seattle/NYC Metro, we're about 5-6 days from where things got out of control in northern Italy. so time is short.
Here's a link to a great analysis of the SK "superspreader" showing how much damage one person can do...
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html
Everything i read about masks from professionals say healthy people do not have to be wearing them.are you saying they are lying to us
I've posted about this several times - have you read those? The professionals are very likely right and wrong. The masks don't do much to prevent a healthy person from getting the virus, since they're so often misused, but they actually do a good job at their primary task - they're used by doctors to prevent the healthy doctors from infecting patients in surgery and in infection wards (and docs know how to use them very well and it helps protect them in infection wards too).
Mask use is mostly about preventing healthy, but infected (or mildly symptomatic) people from infecting others. Every country that's been successful in containment has a population where everyone has adopted use of masks. Unlikely coincidence. We haven't had them, so they haven't been an option. If they were available everyone should wear them during this time.
Meanwhile you slam our government because they dont have them while they are the experts and say we dont need them
I will believe the experts
I may have some masks at my shop . I think I bought a bunch when I was sick snowplowing last year and wore it to keep from getting Bac sick lol
1. Novel virus, never been found in humans before, so no immunity
2. High viral loads
3. Asymptomatic carriers shed said high viral loads
4. Bad hygienic practices
Groucho Marx called this from 1957.
There's an episode on You Tube that has Groucho talking to a Elvis fan club member who informs Groucho that Elvis was also big in Japan and China.
Groucho shot back:"Well that'll teach them to send us the Asiatic Flu."
One of a kind.
There's an episode on You Tube that has Groucho talking to a Elvis fan club member who informs Groucho that Elvis was also big in Japan and China.
Groucho shot back:"Well that'll teach them to send us the Asiatic Flu."
One of a kind.
You want to believe the experts who brushed aside the severity of this virus when it was about to and/or hitting our shores? Then dragged their feet with the testing process? The government response was abominable.
A little history which helps explain why clowns are in charge of the circus:
"It began in April 2018 — more than a year and a half before the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the disease it causes, Covid-19, sickened enough people in China that authorities realized they were dealing with a new disease.
The Trump administration, with John Bolton newly at the helm of the White House National Security Council, began dismantling the team in charge of pandemic response, firing its leadership and disbanding the team in spring 2018.
The cuts, coupled with the administration’s repeated calls to cut the budget for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other public health agencies, made it clear that the Trump administration wasn’t prioritizing the federal government’s ability to respond to disease outbreaks."
The cart is before the horse. The tail is wagging the dog. However you want to term it. I sure hope I am wrong, but we are moving towards a very ugly scene soon.
"It began in April 2018 — more than a year and a half before the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the disease it causes, Covid-19, sickened enough people in China that authorities realized they were dealing with a new disease.
The Trump administration, with John Bolton newly at the helm of the White House National Security Council, began dismantling the team in charge of pandemic response, firing its leadership and disbanding the team in spring 2018.
The cuts, coupled with the administration’s repeated calls to cut the budget for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other public health agencies, made it clear that the Trump administration wasn’t prioritizing the federal government’s ability to respond to disease outbreaks."
The cart is before the horse. The tail is wagging the dog. However you want to term it. I sure hope I am wrong, but we are moving towards a very ugly scene soon.
Impeachment!!
Dems sure did have our backs in January with this virus.... :Unhappy:
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