Probably best to start new threads with political stuff like this. Otherwise you just invite more political posts, which typically devolves to mud slinging in short order.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter RU848789
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The US has 5% of the global population yet represents 25% of global COVID-19 cases and 25% of global COVID deaths. The US made mistakes by not being prepared, not having a national pandemic response infrastructure in place, not taking this global crisis serious early on.
That being said, there will be a lot of good scientific advancements, public health policy, overall awareness, global collaboration and overall future preparedness that will come out of this crisis within our country.
Fool us once, shame on you. Fool us twice, shame on us.
GO RU
Sounds like contact tracing not off to a great start in the city and some other areas. Hopefully it improves.
https://www.boston.com/news/coronav...00-workers-contact-tracing-not-going-well/amp
https://www.boston.com/news/coronav...00-workers-contact-tracing-not-going-well/amp
The masks are not a 100% end all... but those over 65 should try to social distance amongst strangers as much as possible ... don’t linger inside stores be stealth... wear a mask when inside or when asked to ...no I don't wear a mask outside exercising... don’t wear a mask inside a car or home... and do the sanitize hand wash thing which let’s be honest most men and women did not really do pre virus... example : at a Rutgers football game ... guys would relieve themselves maybe flush but most never stopped to wash hands... from what I have heard from the women ... they are just as bad... also read an article on Asian ,India diets and the amount of spices eaten ... also foods high immune support... one day we hope to know the how and why’s .
You are banking on too much global collaboration if and when... the world is not as nice as some want yo believe... yes there are many good people but also there are many selfish ones... A monopoly on drugs and / or a vaccine by some would take us in much a different direction ... Let’s hope not.
Almost 65 k deaths in 5 northeast states as of June 19,2020..NY, NJ , Pa., Conn. , Mass. should tell us we are too packed in or mistakes were made ? ...we will see?
I think both of those things, but there is also the very basic element of humanity vs nature, and sometimes nature punches humanity in the face.
Edit: upon reading the article it sounds more like lack of cooperation from the sick/general public.
But there was going to be learning curve here.
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Another retrospective, observational study on tocilizumab was just published (preprint) from a Cleveland hospital, showing encouraging, but not statistically significant results (was a small trial, though with 28 on drug and 23 not on drug, so harder to show statistical relevance). As the excerpt below says, we need results from the ongoing randomized controlled trials to get a better handle on efficacy.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30162-0/fulltext#
Despite the limitations, our findings have important clinical implications. Higher mortality rates in certain countries such as Italy, Spain, and France were in part due to surge of patients requiring high level of care. The quicker recovery with decreased duration of vasopressor and invasive ventilation support in our cohort is a promising finding that would help hospitals across the world to accommodate the increased need for critical resources and intensive care unit beds. In addition, we demonstrated favorable outcomes with a single 400 mg dose of tocilizumab, while majority of prior studies used higher doses with multiple infusions (i.e. 800 mg tocilizumab with a repeat dose in 12 h). Hence, our results may be instructive to evaluate low–dose tocilizumab in large prospective studies because similar outcomes with fewer side effects might be achieved with low–dose tocilizumab. In conclusion, our findings suggest that use of tocilizumab in selected patients with severe COVID–19 may provide clinical benefit. These findings require validation from ongoing clinical trials of tocilizumab in COVID–19 patients.
Humanity pissed off nature , sure I see that , however ineptness certainly has played a huge If not more prominent role ... think about that 65k deaths and perhaps more in 5 states of the northeast when they adjust their totals ... no sorry ....excuses are for the faint of heart and that pass the buck...
Seoul and NYC have similar populations (9.7MM/8.5MM) and densities (45K/26K per square mile) and Seoul has about 100 deaths, while NYC has almost 22,000, so clearly this virus can be contained, meaning it's been all about mistakes, with the biggest being not having aggressive testing early on in the outbreak.
Having said that, this virus is still very difficult to contain and SK just had their highest number of new cases (67) in 3 weeks. They've been able to control previous flare-ups with testing/tracing/isolating, plus most wear masks in public, so my guess is they'll continue to be able to do so.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...akistan-reports-153-deaths-highest-daily-toll
Last week in the Miami Herald.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243361796.html
This week in the Miami Herald.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243694827.html
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243361796.html
This week in the Miami Herald.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243694827.html
SK has also dealt with something similar before, and they had a top down holistic approach.
NYC if they were going to be ahead of the game were going to have to do it with limited help from above.
Granted DeBlasio went the opposite direction he should have on a political whim, but he was dealing with limited information.
I think unpreparedness was more at play then ineptitude.
And look, the general public did not want to hear about lockdowns until NYC hospitals were being overrun.
Fast fwd a couple months, and we still see a large chunk of the population disregarding the virus, and it is going to cause another surge in deaths.
So I have a hard time pinning this on the governors of these NE states. Did the do a great job? No. Were they the #1 issue? I'd say they are pretty far down the list.
Down to 1105 in the hospitals. Just 17 deaths reported yesterday. Under 500 daily positives. We've been under 500 daily positives 13 of the last 14 days. No matter how many photos of packed boardwalks and beer gardens, we just aren't seeing the increase one might expect.
The trends have started go up in AZ and Texas. Unfortuneately I imagine we will see similar in Florida too before long.
I know the latest dismissal is too look at the countries overall death trend and use that as proof that this is all fear mongering, but like the arguments of "cases are not rising", "rising cases are due to increased testing" and "cases are up but hospitalizations are not rising" I fear this one too will fall by the wayside as reality sets is.
This thing spreading this rapidly in those states is going to lead to a jump in deaths. I just don't see how that doesn't happen. Even if it is hitting a younger population, even if we are treating it better. Like I said, we are already seeing it in certain states.
Outdoors right? People ask where the science is, but the experiment does appear to be providing strong evidence that outdoors is much lower risk.
It depends on who is getting the virus. If younger folks partying, deaths will likely remain low. If it is hitting older folks and LTC (like it did in NJ and NYC), we will see a spike.
Something to this for sure, but if there new case #'s continue to jump like we have seen(and that trend is not going to reverse on it's own) then deaths are going to go up. Will it be a steady rise, a spike or somewhere in between? Time will tell, but the fatalties are going to go up.
Yes I think outdoors is really low risk. Beaches have been open six weeks now, boardwalks five.
Ya, I was referring to those who are still disregarding the virus.
And yeah people in NJ are grumbling about it, I see it at my job all day, but they are wearing a mask while grumbling. And they are not at indoor restaurants while grumbling.
So I meant those who disregard the virus in actions, more so then words.
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Is that 573 total? Take out all those over 65 and any with a health condition and we're getting closer.
Sugar coat it and dip it in chocolate... unprepared is NOT an excuse...We were unprepared on D Day ... ineptness NO... there is as we all know more than enough blame all around... I’m not blaming governors at all for the virus however a lack of PPE , hospital action plans , ventilator shortages, and the triage of patients into Nursing Care facilities is on them that is on the governors... in NYC the mayor totally is at fault ...
Came across this with some organizers of protests in SC testing positive and requesting others who attended to get tested. Also an article mentioning about 1% (give or take) of people who decided to get tested and attended protests tested positive. Probably hard to say if that's how they got it if the percentage is that low and your'e not testing everyone.
From one of the articles:
Of the 3,200 people tested so far at the four popup sites across the metro, 1.8 percent have tested positive for Covid-19, says Ehresmann. HealthPartners, one of the largest health care providers in Minnesota, also reported to the state that it had tested about 8,500 people who indicated that attendance at a mass gathering was the reason they wanted a test. Among them, 0.99 percent tested positive. These numbers have been one of the few pleasant surprises since the outbreak began, says Ehresmann. “Right now, with the data available to us, it appears there was very little transmission at protest events,” she says. “We’re just absolutely relieved.”
In a handful of other US cities that have rolled out free testing for protest-goers, the first round of results look similarly encouraging. In Seattle, fewer than 1 percent of the 3,000 people tested after attending protests were positive for coronavirus, according to a statement put out by the city’s mayor last Friday. This week, Boston officials announced that 14 out of 1,288 people tested so far were positive for coronavirus, or 1.1 percent. Of course, these are only three cities out of hundreds that have been enveloped in large-scale protests against police brutality and institutionalized racism. Many are not conducting widespread public testing, and so signals of protest-related spikes may take longer to emerge. Additionally, the peak of protests in some cities, like New York City, San Francisco, and Washington, DC, arrived several days after actions in Minneapolis, where the response to Floyd’s death was swift and furious.
Still, these early numbers are welcome news to Roger Shapiro, a professor of immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “When I hear a 1 percent positivity rate, that’s encouraging to me that these protests are not representing new hot spots,” he says. That’s because 1 percent is around the background level of community transmission that might be expected if one were to test a large sample of randomly selected people.
https://www.wired.com/story/what-minnesotas-protests-are-revealing-about-covid-19-spread/
https://www.thestate.com/news/local/article243694592.html
From one of the articles:
Of the 3,200 people tested so far at the four popup sites across the metro, 1.8 percent have tested positive for Covid-19, says Ehresmann. HealthPartners, one of the largest health care providers in Minnesota, also reported to the state that it had tested about 8,500 people who indicated that attendance at a mass gathering was the reason they wanted a test. Among them, 0.99 percent tested positive. These numbers have been one of the few pleasant surprises since the outbreak began, says Ehresmann. “Right now, with the data available to us, it appears there was very little transmission at protest events,” she says. “We’re just absolutely relieved.”
In a handful of other US cities that have rolled out free testing for protest-goers, the first round of results look similarly encouraging. In Seattle, fewer than 1 percent of the 3,000 people tested after attending protests were positive for coronavirus, according to a statement put out by the city’s mayor last Friday. This week, Boston officials announced that 14 out of 1,288 people tested so far were positive for coronavirus, or 1.1 percent. Of course, these are only three cities out of hundreds that have been enveloped in large-scale protests against police brutality and institutionalized racism. Many are not conducting widespread public testing, and so signals of protest-related spikes may take longer to emerge. Additionally, the peak of protests in some cities, like New York City, San Francisco, and Washington, DC, arrived several days after actions in Minneapolis, where the response to Floyd’s death was swift and furious.
Still, these early numbers are welcome news to Roger Shapiro, a professor of immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “When I hear a 1 percent positivity rate, that’s encouraging to me that these protests are not representing new hot spots,” he says. That’s because 1 percent is around the background level of community transmission that might be expected if one were to test a large sample of randomly selected people.
https://www.wired.com/story/what-minnesotas-protests-are-revealing-about-covid-19-spread/
https://www.thestate.com/news/local/article243694592.html
1)Why are we excluding people over 65?
2)We are currently at about 120K deaths in about 4 months. That is 2400x's 50, in 1/3 of the time. You are going to need exclude all sorts of people to get this anywhere near lightning strikes.
As predicted, this confirms how important masks are as at least half to 2/3 of people I saw were wearing masks, plus for the most part they weren't packed in like sardines at an outdoor concert and we know distance matters, with even 3-4 feet being far better than 1-2 feet away (as the dose decreases with the square of the distance away, not linearly, i.e., 4 feet away is 1/4 the dose of 2 feet away, not 1/2). On top of that, being outdoors helps a bit with any appreciable breeze diluting any virus-laden droplets being expelled/exhaled.
Numbers laid it out nicely. Masks work. The data says so.
But social separation is the key... masks are important but if I stay away from you and others my chance of survival dramatically increases exponentially... a mask is not protecting you standing or holding hands while marching down the highways and aveues of America
Obviously being far away from people is the best outcome. But if you have to be near others within 6 feet for whatever reason, your chance of being infected if everyone is wearing masks is far less than if people are not.
It must be the alcohol being consumed that has led to a decrease in positive cases and deaths... barley and hops a great combo for a strong immune system.
By the age of 65, you're usually retired and receiving social security, at least you're eligible. It's much easier to keep those over 65 in lock down. I would also exclude regular cigarette smokers as well. I wonder if any statistics are being kept on this. When they say someone died of COVID who was young and had no underlying conditions, do they also mean that they didn't smoke?
As more and more people get infected, the more donors are available to give plasma. I know that I'll certainly be donating my plasma once I recover. Once enough plasma is available in combination with steroids or any other treatment that proves effective, the fatality numbers for the young and healthy will go way down. The chances of being struck by lightning are 1 in 700,000. Now I'm not talking about everyone. Just those that are young and healthy, but we'll get there faster than a vaccine.
Agree with most of that. There is zero chance I wear a mask cycling. Once your heart rate is up and you are breathing heavily the mask is toast as they become soaked. I don't ride in group rides this year, ride solo so like golf social distancing isn't an issue. Unfortunately seniors think senior day (Wednesday) at the store as a social gathering. Feel safe to huddle in a part of the store feet away because they believe they are safe with a mask. Add the fact they all pull it down to talk. It's my biggest ordering day and 2nd biggest receiving day so I can't take the day off but Seniors are the worst offenders of social distancing. Yet they should be the most concerned. They aren't!
I've heard they include all sorts of things in the underlying conditions, such as mild asthma cases.
Does that mean they include smoking? Not sure on that. But maybe most smokers have at least a mild case of COPD, or chronic bronchitis or something else? I would think my sister in law falls into the chronic bronchitis category. Not that she is sickly, but she does get bronchitis fairly often.
Ya, my store is just too tight to maintain 6' at all times. All about the masks.
So with these treatments gaining traction, I would think average time in hospital would be a good next level statistic.
Would be helpful to compare those prior to those in the future.
Would be helpful to compare those prior to those in the future.
Most seniors are somewhat scared based upon what has been told to them but as frail as we are most are going to make the best of a bad situation. I have seen some seniors wear a mask only covering their mouth and not the nose while in a supermarket... nobody chastised them ...saying something only leads to arguments and accusations... Most seniors have some religious beliefs and understand life is fragile ...if this gets ‘em well that was their time...Overall I think most seniors adhere to the recommended guidelines while the young abuse the rules and frankly don’t care if they infect someone else ...the young don’t always think their vulnerable until an illness comes a calling... We’ll see when covid19 2.0 comes ... if it comes.
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