COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[WhiteBus]

Well, this study removes any shred of doubt about the importance of requiring masks to be worn. All 18 countries who did this early on have had <10 deaths per 1MM, while the US and most of Europe, which did not require masks until much later in their outbreaks (if at all) generally have had over 400 deaths/1MM, roughly 50-100X more (and we're not done, sadly). Much of South/Central America are on their way to similar high death rates, except Venezuela, which required masks from day one and has 1 death/1MM. It's so simple, yet our leadership and a sizable segment of our population just can't or won't see it.

file:///C:/Users/Owner/Downloads/coronavirusbigmaskpaper061520b.pdf

Besides masks they did a lot of things better than the US. Nice spin.

 

[Plum Street]

With casinos opening I wonder is smoking will be allowed in the designated areas . Maybe tobacco smoke will help kill the virus in indoor settings.

 

[TroothSkr]

A superb graphical display of COVID cases by state, which shows the trajectory of daily cases in each state, normalized to each state's largest single day of cases, on a 7-day rolling average. If a date has a value of 50, that means that the number of cases for that day, averaged with 7 days around it, is 50% of that state's highest reported number of cases.

While all usual caveats apply (e.g., testing varies by state, reporting varies by state, data lags are different by state, all data is subject to the "garbage in garbage out" rule), I still felt that this was an excellent longitudinal viewpoint for comparison.

https://covidbystate.org/?fbclid=IwAR0SPo5FUB9ZhXRy9F313LIizl25ZC81NJNPipEBSVFTKMw2GFInbaPF_ms#/

 

[RUhasarrived]

This one contrast should reveal what this was all about:Liquor stores were open but AA meetings could not be held.

 

[mikershoein]

Interesting, reduced capacity is fine, but what about people using the same slots? Obviously, AC attracts older folks.

I think you just wear protection and don’t kiss her on lips...


Oh you said SLOTS, I forgot they were also popular in AC

 

[e5fdny]

So you like what you see in tearing down monuments even if they have nothing to do with what occurred during slavery... occupying city blocks Is a good thing while business owners and people that live in fear for what is next ... You don’t see anything wrong with that? ...You may have a ton of education but honestly you are really sick... To see that as Social Justice is what makes you a very ignorant individual... You must really hate this country to believe that it’s just and right... Social Justice is far different than that... this is an attempt to vilify another race in order to justify and acquire power and control... the exact same thing this group says they are protesting against... it’s going to lead to something neither us should want to see ...

Exhibit A for why the CE boards got shut down and why this thread is always at risk.

Actually yours right here is the better exhibit.

You disagree so naturally it’s wrong and has to go. That’s really what happened..baby and the bath water scenario.

 

[RU848789]

Actually yours right here is the better exhibit.

You disagree so naturally it’s wrong and has to go. That’s really what happened..baby and the bath water scenario.

I simply said I disagreed with his previous post and suggested we should get back to COVID topics and then he calls me "really sick" and "very ignorant" and tells me I must really hate my country. In your mind that unprovoked attack is fine, but me noting that attacking posts is a problem is not ok? Care to explain that logic?

 

[RU23]

Actually yours right here is the better exhibit.

You disagree so naturally it’s wrong and has to go. That’s really what happened..baby and the bath water scenario.

No, he was trying to get the thread back on track. The timeline goes Numbers says he disagrees, but suggested we get the thread back on track. Bob ignored and made another irrelevant post, so numbers expressed his annoyance and desire to get the thread back on track....

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Actually yours right here is the better exhibit.

You disagree so naturally it’s wrong and has to go. That’s really what happened..baby and the bath water scenario.

Yep. A lot of posters start yelling "politics" when their opinions and/or the traditional media stories about this chicomvirus plague are simply questioned.

 

[e5fdny]

No, he was trying to get the thread back on track. The timeline goes Numbers says he disagrees, but suggested we get the thread back on track. Bob ignored and made another irrelevant post, so numbers expressed his annoyance and desire to get the thread back on track....

Which is fine and a good idea.

But that's not why the CE Board went away. That's what I am disagreeing with here. The response by @RUBOB72 while annoying (and maybe over the top for this particular thread) to @RU848789 is nothing like the stuff that caused the CE Board to go away. That was brought on by one guy who couldn't cut it over there...he whined and whined and finally got his way. I just disagree with his example.

Yep. A lot of posters start yelling "politics" when their opinions and/or the traditional media stories about this chicomvirus plague are simply questioned.

We all have to admit over the course of 193 pages (so far) this has happened on more then one occasion by both sides.

 

[RU23]

Which is fine and a good idea.

But that's not why the CE Board went away. That's what I am disagreeing with here. The response by @RUBOB72 while annoying (and maybe over the top for this particular thread) to @RU848789 is nothing like the stuff that caused the CE Board to go away. That was brought on by one guy who couldn't cut it over there...he whined and whined and finally got his way. I just disagree with his example.
We all have to admit over the course of 193 pages (so far) this has happened on more then one occasion by both sides.

Don’t disagree for the most part.

 

[RU848789]

Which is fine and a good idea.

But that's not why the CE Board went away. That's what I am disagreeing with here. The response by @RUBOB72 while annoying (and maybe over the top for this particular thread) to @RU848789 is nothing like the stuff that caused the CE Board to go away. That was brought on by one guy who couldn't cut it over there...he whined and whined and finally got his way. I just disagree with his example.
We all have to admit over the course of 193 pages (so far) this has happened on more then one occasion by both sides.

Much better explanation, thanks. Don't 100% agree with all of it, but don't think there's much value in debating the finer points in this thread. Not arguing is harder for me than most things, lol.

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Which is fine and a good idea.

But that's not why the CE Board went away. That's what I am disagreeing with here. The response by @RUBOB72 while annoying (and maybe over the top for this particular thread) to @RU848789 is nothing like the stuff that caused the CE Board to go away. That was brought on by one guy who couldn't cut it over there...he whined and whined and finally got his way. I just disagree with his example.
We all have to admit over the course of 193 pages (so far) this has happened on more then one occasion by both sides.

Fair, but what I've observed in the last couple of weeks since I started getting into this pinned thread is whenever the blame game starts, it is---let's call it--the liberal leaning side--that wants to shut down the commentary. Granted I haven't read through the first 175 or so pages of this thread so if there was robust debate from both sides earlier about it than that's fine. But so many of the blame Trump-only crowd here do not appear to want to even debate the poor decisions at the state-level involved in contributing to the crisis.

Let me add that at this point I'm more interested in the commentary and updates re: treatments, vaccines and ongoing management of /response to the crisis. But when someone slips in an opinion about blame I think it's fair to address and challenge it right then too.

 

[Tango Two]

Horowitz: All the ways the media is misleading you about a record spike in Florida




When the media frantically warns of record spikes of coronavirus cases in Florida and several other southern states and predicts these states will become the next epicenter for the virus, people automatically conjure up images of Italy and New York City. Naturally, that is the desired result of the media-driven panic. In fact, the media has been predicting Florida would become the next New York since early April. However, once you study the data on who these states are testing and why testing is going up yet deaths are still declining every day, it becomes clear that the reality is the exact opposite of the panic the media is pushing.

The reality is that what happened in New York City in March was an anomaly, and its unique dynamic is not migrating to other states. In fact, the virus continues to prove itself less deadly than previously thought and likely becoming milder as time goes on. Several weeks into the superficial spike in cases, deaths are plummeting, reaching the lowest level on Sunday since the beginning of the epidemic and down 90 percent since the peak.




https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-ways-media-misleading-record-spike-florida/

 

[T2Kplus10]

Actually yours right here is the better exhibit.

You disagree so naturally it’s wrong and has to go. That’s really what happened..baby and the bath water scenario.

+1
Some of the people here need to look in the mirror, they are part of the problem.

 

[Ronnie_B]

Initial COVID-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than originally reported


Many epidemiologists believe that the initial COVID-19 infection rate was undercounted due to testing issues, asymptomatic and alternatively symptomatic individuals, and a failure to identify early cases.

Now, a new study from Penn State estimates that the number of early COVID-19 cases in the U.S. may have been more than 80 times greater and doubled nearly twice as fast as originally believed.

In a paper published today (June 22) in the journal Science Translational Medicine, researchers estimated the detection rate of symptomatic COVID-19 cases using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s influenza-like illnesses (ILI) surveillance data over a three week period in March 2020.

“We analyzed each state’s ILI cases to estimate the number that could not be attributed to influenza and were in excess of seasonal baseline levels,” said Justin Silverman, assistant professor in Penn State’s College of Information Sciences and Technology and Department of Medicine. “When you subtract these out, you’re left with what we're calling excess ILI – cases that can't be explained by either influenza or the typical seasonal variation of respiratory pathogens.”

The researchers found that the excess ILI showed a nearly perfect correlation with the spread of COVID-19 around the country.

Said Silverman, “This suggests that ILI data is capturing COVID cases, and there appears to be a much greater undiagnosed population than originally thought.”

Remarkably, the size of the observed surge of excess ILI corresponds to more than 8.7 million new cases during the last three weeks of March, compared to the roughly 100,000 cases that were officially reported during the same time period.

“At first, I couldn’t believe our estimates were correct,” said Silverman. “But we realized that deaths across the U.S. had been doubling every three days and that our estimate of the infection rate was consistent with three-day doubling since the first observed case was reported in Washington state on Jan. 15.”

https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/2...Kk7HL8iZ9wFfzYwYpQ0lnotA7HBCwo8i964vfmlmFlkJg

 

[bac2therac]

Exhibit A for why the CE boards got shut down and why this thread is always at risk.

not to veer into a discussion but what exactly is wrong with his view, just because he differs from your opinion. I agree with you this thread isnt necessarily right for his post but you immediately deflected to saying this is why the current events board was shut down..why? because he has a strong opinion that differs from the mob. The reality is that everyone who disagrees with the mob and its social justice movement is not racist.

Which is fine and a good idea.

But that's not why the CE Board went away. That's what I am disagreeing with here. The response by @RUBOB72 while annoying (and maybe over the top for this particular thread) to @RU848789 is nothing like the stuff that caused the CE Board to go away. That was brought on by one guy who couldn't cut it over there...he whined and whined and finally got his way. I just disagree with his example.
We all have to admit over the course of 193 pages (so far) this has happened on more then one occasion by both sides.

Nailed it

 

[T2Kplus10]

Initial COVID-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than originally reported


Many epidemiologists believe that the initial COVID-19 infection rate was undercounted due to testing issues, asymptomatic and alternatively symptomatic individuals, and a failure to identify early cases.

Now, a new study from Penn State estimates that the number of early COVID-19 cases in the U.S. may have been more than 80 times greater and doubled nearly twice as fast as originally believed.

In a paper published today (June 22) in the journal Science Translational Medicine, researchers estimated the detection rate of symptomatic COVID-19 cases using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s influenza-like illnesses (ILI) surveillance data over a three week period in March 2020.

“We analyzed each state’s ILI cases to estimate the number that could not be attributed to influenza and were in excess of seasonal baseline levels,” said Justin Silverman, assistant professor in Penn State’s College of Information Sciences and Technology and Department of Medicine. “When you subtract these out, you’re left with what we're calling excess ILI – cases that can't be explained by either influenza or the typical seasonal variation of respiratory pathogens.”

The researchers found that the excess ILI showed a nearly perfect correlation with the spread of COVID-19 around the country.

Said Silverman, “This suggests that ILI data is capturing COVID cases, and there appears to be a much greater undiagnosed population than originally thought.”

Remarkably, the size of the observed surge of excess ILI corresponds to more than 8.7 million new cases during the last three weeks of March, compared to the roughly 100,000 cases that were officially reported during the same time period.

“At first, I couldn’t believe our estimates were correct,” said Silverman. “But we realized that deaths across the U.S. had been doubling every three days and that our estimate of the infection rate was consistent with three-day doubling since the first observed case was reported in Washington state on Jan. 15.”

https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/2...Kk7HL8iZ9wFfzYwYpQ0lnotA7HBCwo8i964vfmlmFlkJg

If true, the CDC fatality rate estimate of 0.25% may be too high.

 

[rutgersguy1]

This is one of the things I mentioned earlier that I guess with only time we'll find out but beyond obviously dying how many suffer from long term effects of the disease. Article on some that stuff and couple case studies on it.

From the article:

One in three patients who recover from coronavirus could be harmed for life, with long-term damage to their lungs, as well as chronic fatigue and psychological disturbances, research suggests.

Experts said there was growing evidence that the virus could cause persistent or even permanent trauma, including impairment to the brain and an increased risk of Alzheimer’s disease.

NHS guidance seen by The Telegraph suggests that around 30 per cent of patients who recover from Covid-19 may be left with damaged and scarred lung tissue, if it follows patterns of similar diseases.

Dr Floyd told The Telegraph: “These are people who were independent, they might be running their own business, going to the gym, swimming, active - now they are at the point they can’t get out of bed.


https://www.yahoo.com/news/revealed-scars-covid-19-could-131737643.html

 

[albanyknight]

Just look at the posts that derail this thread and then look at WHO is making these posts. With the exception of White Bus and Bob72, every one of them are by former conservative CE Board regular posters. Since Rutgers100 stopped posting, none of the lefty posters on the CE Board are complaining and our compliance with Richie's wishes have for the most part been respected.

This nonsense that one poster closed down the CE Board is just that; nonsense. That board was on it's way out for a long-long time. All of the regular posters (myself included) have to take responsibility for that board's demise.

I am continued to be amazed at the venom spewed at RU Numbers. Instead of giving him credit for probably the most successful thread in the history of this board, people continue to attack him. Here is a hint. This thread is first and foremost an informational and educational thread.

So next time you are ready to attack someone, ask yourself if what you are about to write is in anyway helpful to either educating or informing?

 

[e5fdny]

Initial COVID-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than originally reported


Many epidemiologists believe that the initial COVID-19 infection rate was undercounted due to testing issues, asymptomatic and alternatively symptomatic individuals, and a failure to identify early cases.

Now, a new study from Penn State estimates that the number of early COVID-19 cases in the U.S. may have been more than 80 times greater and doubled nearly twice as fast as originally believed.

In a paper published today (June 22) in the journal Science Translational Medicine, researchers estimated the detection rate of symptomatic COVID-19 cases using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s influenza-like illnesses (ILI) surveillance data over a three week period in March 2020.

“We analyzed each state’s ILI cases to estimate the number that could not be attributed to influenza and were in excess of seasonal baseline levels,” said Justin Silverman, assistant professor in Penn State’s College of Information Sciences and Technology and Department of Medicine. “When you subtract these out, you’re left with what we're calling excess ILI – cases that can't be explained by either influenza or the typical seasonal variation of respiratory pathogens.”

The researchers found that the excess ILI showed a nearly perfect correlation with the spread of COVID-19 around the country.

Said Silverman, “This suggests that ILI data is capturing COVID cases, and there appears to be a much greater undiagnosed population than originally thought.”

Remarkably, the size of the observed surge of excess ILI corresponds to more than 8.7 million new cases during the last three weeks of March, compared to the roughly 100,000 cases that were officially reported during the same time period.

“At first, I couldn’t believe our estimates were correct,” said Silverman. “But we realized that deaths across the U.S. had been doubling every three days and that our estimate of the infection rate was consistent with three-day doubling since the first observed case was reported in Washington state on Jan. 15.”

https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/2...Kk7HL8iZ9wFfzYwYpQ0lnotA7HBCwo8i964vfmlmFlkJg

Fake news...

“Now, a new study from Penn State...”

:Laughing

 

[Spare130]

If true, the CDC fatality rate estimate of 0.25% may be too high.

Don't tell that to formerly when he's back from his timeout. It's 5%!!! and not any lower than that.

 

[RU-05]

Horowitz: All the ways the media is misleading you about a record spike in Florida




When the media frantically warns of record spikes of coronavirus cases in Florida and several other southern states and predicts these states will become the next epicenter for the virus, people automatically conjure up images of Italy and New York City. Naturally, that is the desired result of the media-driven panic. In fact, the media has been predicting Florida would become the next New York since early April. However, once you study the data on who these states are testing and why testing is going up yet deaths are still declining every day, it becomes clear that the reality is the exact opposite of the panic the media is pushing.

The reality is that what happened in New York City in March was an anomaly, and its unique dynamic is not migrating to other states. In fact, the virus continues to prove itself less deadly than previously thought and likely becoming milder as time goes on. Several weeks into the superficial spike in cases, deaths are plummeting, reaching the lowest level on Sunday since the beginning of the epidemic and down 90 percent since the peak.




https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-ways-media-misleading-record-spike-florida/

Today Florida reported it's highest death count since April. 2nd highest total to date.

Horowitz flubs it again.

 

[Joey Bags]

Markets aren’t perturbed yet by the case increases. they snuffed out the first wave bad news about a month in advance of the crush of cases

 

[WhiteBus]

Just look at the posts that derail this thread and then look at WHO is making these posts. With the exception of White Bus and Bob72, every one of them are by former conservative CE Board regular posters. Since Rutgers100 stopped posting, none of the lefty posters on the CE Board are complaining and our compliance with Richie's wishes have for the most part been respected.

This nonsense that one poster closed down the CE Board is just that; nonsense. That board was on it's way out for a long-long time. All of the regular posters (myself included) have to take responsibility for that board's demise.

I am continued to be amazed at the venom spewed at RU Numbers. Instead of giving him credit for probably the most successful thread in the history of this board, people continue to attack him. Here is a hint. This thread is first and foremost an informational and educational thread.

So next time you are ready to attack someone, ask yourself if what you are about to write is in anyway helpful to either educating or informing?

Where have I tried to derail this thread??

 

[Spare130]

Just look at the posts that derail this thread and then look at WHO is making these posts. With the exception of White Bus and Bob72, every one of them are by former conservative CE Board regular posters. Since Rutgers100 stopped posting, none of the lefty posters on the CE Board are complaining and our compliance with Richie's wishes have for the most part been respected.

This nonsense that one poster closed down the CE Board is just that; nonsense. That board was on it's way out for a long-long time. All of the regular posters (myself included) have to take responsibility for that board's demise.

I am continued to be amazed at the venom spewed at RU Numbers. Instead of giving him credit for probably the most successful thread in the history of this board, people continue to attack him. Here is a hint. This thread is first and foremost an informational and educational thread.

So next time you are ready to attack someone, ask yourself if what you are about to write is in anyway helpful to either educating or informing?

Yawn. A lib ranting that all conservative posters are the problem and nobody in the left is involved. lol.

And let's see, the board was up and running for years, the nerd begins to rant to rivals in Twitter that the board should be removed, it gets removed the same day. Yet it's "nonsense" to think he was involved LOL

 

[saltpepperketchup]

Is there any legitimate data regarding children say 10 and under? I'm interested in understanding if children are getting infected or not. If they are getting infected what is the breakdown between that they are only asymptomatic or they are asymptomatic and then become symptomatic And for both, can they, and if so how easily can they, infect someone else?

I'd imagine that if an adult tested positive they would test their kids too.

And for any of the data, is it that they got the test that shows an active infection or the antibody test that shows they were infected?

In the absence of data, who has anecdotal evidence of any individual they are familiar with? So many people here either had it or know people that did. But I haven't really seen anything on children other than the obvious that they simply generally aren't getting very sick themselves and certainly mortality is very low or basically zero for that age range.

Everyone keeps saying kids can be infected and spread it to others. I'm basically trying to see what proof there is of that or is that concept just an assumption.

 

[RU848789]

Initial COVID-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than originally reported


Many epidemiologists believe that the initial COVID-19 infection rate was undercounted due to testing issues, asymptomatic and alternatively symptomatic individuals, and a failure to identify early cases.

Now, a new study from Penn State estimates that the number of early COVID-19 cases in the U.S. may have been more than 80 times greater and doubled nearly twice as fast as originally believed.

In a paper published today (June 22) in the journal Science Translational Medicine, researchers estimated the detection rate of symptomatic COVID-19 cases using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s influenza-like illnesses (ILI) surveillance data over a three week period in March 2020.

“We analyzed each state’s ILI cases to estimate the number that could not be attributed to influenza and were in excess of seasonal baseline levels,” said Justin Silverman, assistant professor in Penn State’s College of Information Sciences and Technology and Department of Medicine. “When you subtract these out, you’re left with what we're calling excess ILI – cases that can't be explained by either influenza or the typical seasonal variation of respiratory pathogens.”

The researchers found that the excess ILI showed a nearly perfect correlation with the spread of COVID-19 around the country.

Said Silverman, “This suggests that ILI data is capturing COVID cases, and there appears to be a much greater undiagnosed population than originally thought.”

Remarkably, the size of the observed surge of excess ILI corresponds to more than 8.7 million new cases during the last three weeks of March, compared to the roughly 100,000 cases that were officially reported during the same time period.

“At first, I couldn’t believe our estimates were correct,” said Silverman. “But we realized that deaths across the U.S. had been doubling every three days and that our estimate of the infection rate was consistent with three-day doubling since the first observed case was reported in Washington state on Jan. 15.”

https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/2...Kk7HL8iZ9wFfzYwYpQ0lnotA7HBCwo8i964vfmlmFlkJg

Ronnie - good find, thanks! People should keep in mind that this is evaluating infection rates early in the pandemic, i.e., late Feb through most of March, where testing rates were very low and not revealing, by a longshot, the extent of the explosive exponential growth. Nothing that new in the paper, as the excess influenza like illness spike was originally postulated by the same authors and discussed here in early April (link below) and electronic population temperature monitoring by Kinsa showing infection spikes was discussed in late March (2nd link), but the paper does an excellent job of tying everything together. I do think the authors should've given Kinsa a nod, since they published the "idea" of using ILI to track the outbreak before they authors did, as far as I know.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ventions-and-more.191275/page-54#post-4490661

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ventions-and-more.191275/page-46#post-4481499

If true, the CDC fatality rate estimate of 0.25% may be too high.

You can't even read article titles can you? The title is "Initial COVID infection rates may be 80 times greater than originally reported," and the article says nothing about fatality rate estimates beyond late March. The article is all about the missed infections in Feb/March (since we had no testing) that were actually captured by the ILI network, but largely ignored.

Later in the paper, they actually use the NY State seroprevalence data from late April of ~14% infected (as per antibody testing) to corroborate their estimate of ~8% being infected by the end of March when ILI peaked and started declining. Nothing in the paper would suggest that the current projections by most experts of an eventual IFR of 0.5-1.0% will be wrong.

 

[Joey Bags]

Somerset County reported ZERO new cases for 6/22!

 

[Knight177lb]

Is there any legitimate data regarding children say 10 and under? I'm interested in understanding if children are getting infected or not. If they are getting infected what is the breakdown between that they are only asymptomatic or they are asymptomatic and then become symptomatic And for both, can they, and if so how easily can they, infect someone else?

I'd imagine that if an adult tested positive they would test their kids too.

And for any of the data, is it that they got the test that shows an active infection or the antibody test that shows they were infected?

In the absence of data, who has anecdotal evidence of any individual they are familiar with? So many people here either had it or know people that did. But I haven't really seen anything on children other than the obvious that they simply generally aren't getting very sick themselves and certainly mortality is very low or basically zero for that age range.

Everyone keeps saying kids can be infected and spread it to others. I'm basically trying to see what proof there is of that or is that concept just an assumption.

Yes. School kids don’t appear to transmit the new coronavirus to peers or teachers, a French study found, weighing in on the crucial topic of children’s role in propagating Covid-19.

Here's the link:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...n-don-t-spread-coronavirus-french-study-shows

Come September, we should be sending our kids back to school.

 

[mikershoein]

Don't tell that to formerly when he's back from his timeout. It's 5%!!! and not any lower than that.

Maybe a new identity with similar traits returns instead???

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

Horowitz: All the ways the media is misleading you about a record spike in Florida




When the media frantically warns of record spikes of coronavirus cases in Florida and several other southern states and predicts these states will become the next epicenter for the virus, people automatically conjure up images of Italy and New York City. Naturally, that is the desired result of the media-driven panic. In fact, the media has been predicting Florida would become the next New York since early April. However, once you study the data on who these states are testing and why testing is going up yet deaths are still declining every day, it becomes clear that the reality is the exact opposite of the panic the media is pushing.

The reality is that what happened in New York City in March was an anomaly, and its unique dynamic is not migrating to other states. In fact, the virus continues to prove itself less deadly than previously thought and likely becoming milder as time goes on. Several weeks into the superficial spike in cases, deaths are plummeting, reaching the lowest level on Sunday since the beginning of the epidemic and down 90 percent since the peak.




https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-ways-media-misleading-record-spike-florida/

The issue here isn’t whether or not Florida will have 30,000 deaths this summer. It may or may not; we don’t have crystal balls to tell us the future.

But the governor himself has said the rate of positive tests is outpacing the increase in testing, indicating spread of infection. We are watching closely not to see if this results in NY’s death numbers, but to see what spreading infection means for a state otherwise trying to operate under somewhat normal conditions.

If the spread of infection ultimately reaches a point that Florida decides to roll back some activities and partially close down; that may tell us something about public appetite for infection risk, and how other states might behave when they see similar data trends. It will also tell us something about the effectiveness of previous policy decisions in the State.

If Florida sees the trend reverse without substantial changes to their reopening efforts, that will also tell us something, and provide some hope for the country’s broader reopening effort.

There’s reason to closely scrutinize developments in FL that have nothing to do with NYC or Italy.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Somerset County reported ZERO new cases for 6/22!

+1
SoCo is rocking it. Many days in the single digits for the county as well.

 

[Greg2020]

Horowitz: All the ways the media is misleading you about a record spike in Florida




When the media frantically warns of record spikes of coronavirus cases in Florida and several other southern states and predicts these states will become the next epicenter for the virus, people automatically conjure up images of Italy and New York City. Naturally, that is the desired result of the media-driven panic. In fact, the media has been predicting Florida would become the next New York since early April. However, once you study the data on who these states are testing and why testing is going up yet deaths are still declining every day, it becomes clear that the reality is the exact opposite of the panic the media is pushing.

The reality is that what happened in New York City in March was an anomaly, and its unique dynamic is not migrating to other states. In fact, the virus continues to prove itself less deadly than previously thought and likely becoming milder as time goes on. Several weeks into the superficial spike in cases, deaths are plummeting, reaching the lowest level on Sunday since the beginning of the epidemic and down 90 percent since the peak.




https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-ways-media-misleading-record-spike-florida/

The same guy who said this about arizona. LMFAO

 

[RU848789]

Today Florida reported it's highest death count since April. 2nd highest total to date.

Horowitz flubs it again.

Some comments on Florida and Texas...

Horowitz has some valid points, in that the states with increasing positive cases and hospitalizations are very unlikely to see what we saw in the NE US (especially NY/NJ/CT) since there wasn't testing back then to know we were in the midst of the most explosive exponential growth in the short history of this new virus and there is testing now in those states so presumably they'll institute some controls, plus a decent % of their citizens are still wearing masks/distancing and we still don't have major public events. However, he glosses over key data, many of his graphics are irrelevant and his claim that the virus is weakening is not backed up by any science in his article, so he shouldn't be saying it.

In addition, while most would agree that cases can be a bit misleading, depending on testing level (and severity of cases), hospitalizations are typically less so. Well, FL has seen significant increases in hospitalizations The two graphs below are FL cases and hospitalizations and clearly cases are rising quickly and being followed by a rise in hospitalizations. Now, those hospitalization increases certainly aren't an emergency yet, but they should be concerning. Deaths typically lag cases by 2-3 weeks, so be on the lookout for an increase in deaths soon, although treatments/medical interventions have gotten better, so deaths might not be as bad as they would've been 2-3 months ago.

https://tallahasseereports.com/2020...ive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/

I'd say the situation in Texas is probably worse than in FL and many in some TX cities are very worried about further growth rates (especially in hospitalizations) if nothing is done, as per the linked article. The two graphics below show the major rises in both daily cases and cumulative (couldn't find daily for TX and didn't fancy constructing my own from the data in the 2nd link below) hospitalizations statewide in TX; the total has risen about 60% in the past week. Deaths might be starting to rise, too, but again, with the lag, watch out for increases in the next week or so.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/0...cases-hospitalizations-austin-houston-dallas/

I can really see the concern in Houston, where they've jumped from 400-500 daily hospitalizations to 1000-1200 per day now (link below to TX hospital raw data). NYC's max was 1800/day in a city with almost 4X the population. They still have excess capacity, but if I were a public health official in Houston, I'd be very worried, too.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

One more thing. Was just about to hit reply and saw the news that Texas zoomed well past its daily case record with 5489 new cases today. Nothing to see here...

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...9-cases-texas-reports-new-all-time-daily-high

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

+1
SoCo is rocking it. Many days in the single digits for the county as well.

Hardly any surprise. We have many more common sense residents in great shape--very good looking too-- compared to the rest of this blew state.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Hardly any surprise. We have many more common sense residents in great shape--very good looking too-- compared to the rest of this blew state.

+1
Best county in the state. Hunterdon is solid as well.

 

[RU-05]

Some comments on Florida and Texas...

Horowitz has some valid points, in that the states with increasing positive cases and hospitalizations are very unlikely to see what we saw in the NE US (especially NY/NJ/CT) since there wasn't testing back then to know we were in the midst of the most explosive exponential growth in the short history of this new virus and there is testing now in those states so presumably they'll institute some controls, plus a decent % of their citizens are still wearing masks/distancing and we still don't have major public events. However, he glosses over key data, many of his graphics are irrelevant and his claim that the virus is weakening is not backed up by any science in his article, so he shouldn't be saying it.

In addition, while most would agree that cases can be a bit misleading, depending on testing level (and severity of cases), hospitalizations are typically less so. Well, FL has seen significant increases in hospitalizations The two graphs below are FL cases and hospitalizations and clearly cases are rising quickly and being followed by a rise in hospitalizations. Now, those hospitalization increases certainly aren't an emergency yet, but they should be concerning. Deaths typically lag cases by 2-3 weeks, so be on the lookout for an increase in deaths soon, although treatments/medical interventions have gotten better, so deaths might not be as bad as they would've been 2-3 months ago.

https://tallahasseereports.com/2020...ive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/

I'd say the situation in Texas is probably worse than in FL and many in some TX cities are very worried about further growth rates (especially in hospitalizations) if nothing is done, as per the linked article. The two graphics below show the major rises in both daily cases and cumulative (couldn't find daily for TX and didn't fancy constructing my own from the data in the 2nd link below) hospitalizations statewide in TX; the total has risen about 60% in the past week. Deaths might be starting to rise, too, but again, with the lag, watch out for increases in the next week or so.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/0...cases-hospitalizations-austin-houston-dallas/

I can really see the concern in Houston, where they've jumped from 400-500 daily hospitalizations to 1000-1200 per day now (link below to TX hospital raw data). NYC's max was 1800/day in a city with almost 4X the population. They still have excess capacity, but if I were a public health official in Houston, I'd be very worried, too.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

One more thing. Was just about to hit reply and saw the news that Texas zoomed well past its daily case record with 5489 new cases today. Nothing to see here...

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...9-cases-texas-reports-new-all-time-daily-high

He still doesn't realize that many of the graphs he is looking at have lags. Florida's dashboard has given the appearance of declining fatalities for months. But they are not declining, in fact this weekends #'s combined with todays report looks like they are beginning to climb.

 

[RU-05]

I just quickly looked at that article and I saw more then a few things that were somewhere between shaky and false.

Someone who is on twitter should go educate the guy.

 

[RU-05]

So Fauci is flat out saying the reason he did not recommend masks early on is because of the lack of PPE in this country, and he did not want those in health care to be without.

It wasn't that hard to figure if you looked at it with an open mind. Especially since he did say just that back then, though not as forcefully as he did today.