COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[RU-05]

@RU848789

Yes Texas looks to be in a worse spot then FL currently. But it's really just a timeline issue, and given FL isn't changing what they are doing, I figure it is only a matter of time until they get to where Texas now is.

Really unfortunate that they refuse to acknowledge the situation.

 

[RUskoolie]

Somerset County reported ZERO new cases for 6/22!

We are simply the GOAT.

 

[bac2therac]

doing very well in Somerset County and Monty extremely well

 

[RU848789]

@RU848789

Yes Texas looks to be in a worse spot then FL currently. But it's really just a timeline issue, and given FL isn't changing what they are doing, I figure it is only a matter of time until they get to where Texas now is.

Really unfortunate that they refuse to acknowledge the situation.

Agreed. If they don't change their behaviors (especially mask-wearing), they'll catch up to Texas. It's been like watching a train wreck in slow motion, knowing so many states reopened too early without achieving recommended metrics (unlike NJ/NY) and hadn't established stronger mask-wearing/distancing expectations. Doesn't mean they reach NYC Metro levels, but then again, nobody has in the world, yet - even Italy/Spain have less than half the cases/deaths per capita of NY/NJ and look what happened in those countries. The untold story of all of this is actually how amazing it was that neither NY nor NJ had total breakdown of their health care systems despite having 2-3X the cases/death rates of anywhere else in the world. Testing without the interventions just means you'll know where the worst locations are.

Below is a graphic I saw elsewhere which is correct in cases (the text in the boxes is mostly correct). Houston with just above half of NYC's peak daily hospitalization rate with about 1/4 the population - not a good combo, although Houston has some huge medical centers, so they appear to have capacity. Problem with COVID though is they've likely been at "steady state" for awhile (with people coming in and leaving at similar rates), but once one gets on the growth part of the case curve, then there will be accumulation of patients. In NYC that curve shows a max of about 1800/day, but NYC topped out near 20,000 COVID patients, which along with other patients in the hospitals came close to maxing out capacity in a few hospitals. From the link I posted previously, Houston appears to have 1150 COVID patients, 2450 available beds and a total of 12700 beds in the system, so I assume that means they have 9100 non-COVID patients in their hospitals. At 1150 new patients per day or more, it wouldn't take long to fill up their capacity.

 

[WhiteBus]

Some comments on Florida and Texas...

Horowitz has some valid points, in that the states with increasing positive cases and hospitalizations are very unlikely to see what we saw in the NE US (especially NY/NJ/CT) since there wasn't testing back then to know we were in the midst of the most explosive exponential growth in the short history of this new virus and there is testing now in those states so presumably they'll institute some controls, plus a decent % of their citizens are still wearing masks/distancing and we still don't have major public events. However, he glosses over key data, many of his graphics are irrelevant and his claim that the virus is weakening is not backed up by any science in his article, so he shouldn't be saying it.

In addition, while most would agree that cases can be a bit misleading, depending on testing level (and severity of cases), hospitalizations are typically less so. Well, FL has seen significant increases in hospitalizations The two graphs below are FL cases and hospitalizations and clearly cases are rising quickly and being followed by a rise in hospitalizations. Now, those hospitalization increases certainly aren't an emergency yet, but they should be concerning. Deaths typically lag cases by 2-3 weeks, so be on the lookout for an increase in deaths soon, although treatments/medical interventions have gotten better, so deaths might not be as bad as they would've been 2-3 months ago.

https://tallahasseereports.com/2020...ive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/

I'd say the situation in Texas is probably worse than in FL and many in some TX cities are very worried about further growth rates (especially in hospitalizations) if nothing is done, as per the linked article. The two graphics below show the major rises in both daily cases and cumulative (couldn't find daily for TX and didn't fancy constructing my own from the data in the 2nd link below) hospitalizations statewide in TX; the total has risen about 60% in the past week. Deaths might be starting to rise, too, but again, with the lag, watch out for increases in the next week or so.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/0...cases-hospitalizations-austin-houston-dallas/

I can really see the concern in Houston, where they've jumped from 400-500 daily hospitalizations to 1000-1200 per day now (link below to TX hospital raw data). NYC's max was 1800/day in a city with almost 4X the population. They still have excess capacity, but if I were a public health official in Houston, I'd be very worried, too.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

One more thing. Was just about to hit reply and saw the news that Texas zoomed well past its daily case record with 5489 new cases today. Nothing to see here...

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...9-cases-texas-reports-new-all-time-daily-high

Where are the death graphs for those states? Why not include them?.

 

[RobertG]

California is also recording record hospitalization.

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...ia-hits-new-high-in-covid-19-hospitalizations

 

[RU-05]

Where are the death graphs for those states? Why not include them?.

TX started to trend up last week. FL is showing signs of a trend with it's weekend/early week reporting.

And I'm not sure if waiting for a spike in deaths is a solid strategy. Cases are way up. Hospitalizations are trending upward quickly. Even with a moderate up tick in fatalities, is that not enough to take notice.

 

[WhiteBus]

TX started to trend up last week. FL is showing signs of a trend with it's weekend/early week reporting.

And I'm not sure if waiting for a spike in deaths is a solid strategy. Cases are way up. Hospitalizations are trending upward quickly. Even with a moderate up tick in fatalities, is that not enough to take notice.

Do you not think for a second that positive treatment has improved dramatically?? Seriously?

 

[RU848789]

Where are the death graphs for those states? Why not include them?.

I mentioned in the text that deaths were generally flat and that one wouldn't expect to see any increase in deaths yet given the lag in deaths from cases. So I didn't think those graphs would add value and it takes some work to do all this, so was trying to keep it simple.

 

[RU-05]

Do you not think for a second that positive treatment has improved dramatically?? Seriously?

You again fall into this all or nothing argument.

Yes treatment has improved. Yes fatality rates will decrease. Even moreso given we find so many more cases. But if we allow the virus to spread at the rates we have seen the daily fatalities will certainly increase, we are already seeing signs of this in many states, and even in the country as a whole.

After 7 straight weeks of declining Tuesday deaths week over week, today we reported an increase this week over last week.

 

[WhiteBus]

I mentioned in the text that deaths were generally flat and that one wouldn't expect to see any increase in deaths yet given the lag in deaths from cases. So I didn't think those graphs would add value and it takes some work to do all this, so was trying to keep it simple.

But its the most important part of it. Testing positive is the headline the media, yourself and others on here keep posting about. It's more about hospitalized and deaths. So many test positive and feel nothing or minor crap. NY NJ did a horrible job protecting the elderly. So deaths were incredibly high. We are over a month when Southern states opened. Yes more infections. More hospitized but they can handle it as they were empty weeks ago.
You disagree with my statement very early on this but the healthy have to face the music on this at some point. Protect those at risk. We are wasting resources by protecting the masses. Focus on the high risk people.

 

[RU-05]

But its the most important part of it. Testing positive is the headline the media, yourself and others on here keep posting about. It's more about hospitalized and deaths. So many test positive and feel nothing or minor crap. NY NJ did a horrible job protecting the elderly. So deaths were incredibly high. We are over a month when Southern states opened. Yes more infections. More hospitized but they can handle it as they were empty weeks ago.
You disagree with my statement very early on this but the healthy have to face the music on this at some point. Protect those at risk. We are wasting resources by protecting the masses. Focus on the high risk people.

Cases is the leading indicator though. First comes the uptick in cases, then comes the hospitalizations, and you are right, treatments are significantly better then they were in the early stages, but the deaths are starting to tick up.

 

[WhiteBus]

Cases is the leading indicator though. First comes the uptick in cases, then comes the hospitalizations, and you are right, treatments are significantly better then they were in the early stages, but the deaths are starting to tick up.

Cases are not the leading indicator! And back in the beginning NY NJ PA didn't accept patients unless they were gravely ill. The Southern States are accepting any positive test person with any symptoms because they saw what happened. After an initial spike the hospitals here were empty and bleeding money.

 

[WhiteBus]

Cases is the leading indicator though. First comes the uptick in cases, then comes the hospitalizations, and you are right, treatments are significantly better then they were in the early stages, but the deaths are starting to tick up.

Please show me the stats that shows hospitalized vs deaths in any open state comparable to NY NJ or Eastern PA. Yes there is a lag but it should show as a % to be close by now.

 

[RU-05]

Cases are not the leading indicator! And back in the beginning NY NJ PA didn't accept patients unless they were gravely ill. The Southern States are accepting any positive test person with any symptoms because they saw what happened. After an initial spike the hospitals here were empty and bleeding money.

Do they put these people with "any" symptom directly into ICU?

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/23/texas-coronavirus-hospitalizations-icu-houston/

"But regionally, some hospital officials are reporting that intensive care units — for seriously ill patients, like those on ventilators — are near or over capacity, and local leaders have warned that hospitals could get overwhelmed if the number of infections keeps climbing.

In the hard-hit Houston region, hospitals have begun moving coronavirus patients from crowded ICUs to other facilities. A local children’s hospital said this week it is admitting transfer patients, with and without the virus, to help other facilities manage their capacity."

And by leading indicator I mean you see the change in cases before you see the changes in the others. We do see hospitalizations already have increased. Unfortunately I think we are already seeing the increase in fatalities.

 

[e5fdny]

But it’s the most important part of it. Testing positive is the headline the media, yourself and others on here keep posting about. It's more about hospitalized and deaths. So many test positive and feel nothing or minor crap. NY NJ did a horrible job protecting the elderly. So deaths were incredibly high. We are over a month when Southern states opened. Yes more infections. More hospitized but they can handle it as they were empty weeks ago.
You disagree with my statement very early on this but the healthy have to face the music on this at some point. Protect those at risk. We are wasting resources by protecting the masses. Focus on the high risk people.

+1

Don’t tell me how many yards or first downs. What’s the final score.

 

[RU-05]

Please show me the stats that shows hospitalized vs deaths in any open state comparable to NY NJ or Eastern PA. Yes there is a lag but it should show as a % to be close by now.

Again with the all or nothing argument. Why does it have to be comparable to those states for it to be a concern?

We should be very concerned that this approaches half of what we saw in the NYC metro in terms of deaths.

 

[RU-05]

+1

Don’t tell me how many yards or first downs. What’s the final score.

So deaths is the only concern correct?

 

[e5fdny]

So deaths is the only concern correct?

It’s not the only one but to me it’s the most important.

 

[WhiteBus]

Again with the all or nothing argument. Why does it have to be comparable to those states for it to be a concern?

We should be very concerned that this approaches half of what we saw in the NYC metro in terms of deaths.

Because you refuse to admit treatment has dramatically improved. You keep posting raw numbers without current facts.

 

[WhiteBus]

So deaths is the only concern correct?

Yes. That what it's all about from the start. People having a fever is no reason to destroy the world economy.

 

[WhiteBus]

Do they put these people with "any" symptom directly into ICU?

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/23/texas-coronavirus-hospitalizations-icu-houston/

"But regionally, some hospital officials are reporting that intensive care units — for seriously ill patients, like those on ventilators — are near or over capacity, and local leaders have warned that hospitals could get overwhelmed if the number of infections keeps climbing.

In the hard-hit Houston region, hospitals have begun moving coronavirus patients from crowded ICUs to other facilities. A local children’s hospital said this week it is admitting transfer patients, with and without the virus, to help other facilities manage their capacity."

And by leading indicator I mean you see the change in cases before you see the changes in the others. We do see hospitalizations already have increased. Unfortunately I think we are already seeing the increase in fatalities.

And BTW you didn't answer my question

 

[RU848789]

California is also recording record hospitalization.

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...ia-hits-new-high-in-covid-19-hospitalizations

And record cases, from about 4000/day for a bit up to 5500 on Monday and 6500 today - pretty big jumps, which is why Gov Newsome instituted mandatory mask requirements in public. Finally a Gov in a state with a growing outbreak who gets it. It should be required for the whole damn country.

 

[RU-05]

It’s not the only one but to me it’s the most important.

So you are willing to close the economy to limit deaths?

 

[RU848789]

It’s not the only one but to me it’s the most important.

And we have over 120K deaths when we could have about 1000-2000 if we had followed our own pandemic playbook. And we could be having maybe 10-20 die per day now instead of still having 500-1000, but people are either too selfish or too stupid to wear masks. I simply don't get it and probably never will. This used to be a country where people looked out for each other and pulled together in times of crisis and might even sacrifice a little for the common good. Not any more, clearly.

 

[RU-05]

And BTW you didn't answer my question

Which question was that?

 

[King of S]

On a positive note, baseball will be back on 7/1/20.

 

[RU-05]

On a positive note, baseball will be back on 7/1/20.

Hockey should have beat them to the punch.

 

[RU848789]

But its the most important part of it. Testing positive is the headline the media, yourself and others on here keep posting about. It's more about hospitalized and deaths. So many test positive and feel nothing or minor crap. NY NJ did a horrible job protecting the elderly. So deaths were incredibly high. We are over a month when Southern states opened. Yes more infections. More hospitized but they can handle it as they were empty weeks ago.
You disagree with my statement very early on this but the healthy have to face the music on this at some point. Protect those at risk. We are wasting resources by protecting the masses. Focus on the high risk people.

Probably half of my posts talk about preventing deaths and you're giving me crap about not including a death graphic? C'mon. There are over 100MM "high risk people," so while we should certainly try to protect them it's not that easy if we go back to nomral. What is easy is for everyone to practice distancing and wear a mask when distancing can't be maintained. That would basically stop or at least greatly reduce transmissions, hospitalizations and deaths, like it has in several other countries (having testing/tracing/isolating then only needs to address flareups), and will protect the most vulnerable as a bonus. Seoul and Tokyo have nearly full subways with everyone wearing masks and they're not seeing transmissions from subways.

 

[Greg2020]

Yes. That what it's all about from the start. People having a fever is no reason to destroy the world economy.

A fever. What? Plenty of people who survive this who are hospitalized have lung damage that might be life-long. A fever lol.

 

[mikershoein]

Hockey should have beat them to the punch.

I saw first games on 7/23 or 7/24

I think hockey starts very soon, possibly before baseball

 

[RobertG]

Scientist looking closer at air conditioning. Nothing definitive

The New York Times published a fascinating article this week showing places with rapid coronavirus case growth. Ironically, they are places firmly entrenched in early summer heat (see graphic above). For reference, I have included the most recent Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center map (below) of confirmed cases by population in the United States. From my lens, the virus spread does not seem averse to heat. While studies continue to emerge, it probably is not a bad idea for public facilities to evaluate HVAC systems with some of the guidance issued in the aforementioned studies. Nothing is conclusive at this point, but it sure couldn’t hurt as states continue to “open up.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marsha..._medium=social&utm_term=Valerie/#45ce401466d1

 

[Scarlet83]

Just look at the posts that derail this thread and then look at WHO is making these posts.

I am continued to be amazed at the venom spewed at RU Numbers. Instead of giving him credit for probably the most successful thread in the history of this board, people continue to attack him. Here is a hint. This thread is first and foremost an informational and educational thread.

So next time you are ready to attack someone, ask yourself if what you are about to write is in anyway helpful to either educating or informing?

I deleted some of the post above. I left the part about the content that numbers has provided in this thread.

And numbers, thank you for posting this great information over the past few months. It has been a huge help and difference maker to me and a lot of other people.

 

[RobertG]

Covid rising in NJ's young

Young adults are becoming infected with COVID-19 at a greater rate in June than prior months, raising concerns among state officials Tuesday that packed bars, beaches and other venues may be helping spread the virus among this age group.

Those ages 18 to 29 represented 22% of New Jersey coronavirus cases in June, compared to only 12% of cases in April, state officials said.

While some of the increase can be attributed to more access to testing, Health Commissioner Judy Persichilli said she is concerned that more young people are growing complacent and not wearing masks or social distancing.
...

But warmer weather along with the reopening of outdoor dining and bars serving drinks through their windows have led to crowded gatherings of mostly unmasked young people from Belmar to Hoboken to Morristown.

The rise in cases also coincides with dozens of protests across the state against the death of George Floyd, a Minneapolis man who died after a police officer kept his knee on his neck for more than eight minutes.

Many protests drew thousands of people who often crammed into public spaces to rally for police reform. Health experts have warned that the protests may cause a spike in cases and Murphy has urged attendees to be tested.

https://www.app.com/story/news/coro...s-cases-rising-among-young-people/3243573001/

 

[RUskoolie]

And record cases, from about 4000/day for a bit up to 5500 on Monday and 6500 today - pretty big jumps, which is why Gov Newsome instituted mandatory mask requirements in public. Finally a Gov in a state with a growing outbreak who gets it. It should be required for the whole damn country.

this is why it’s hard to take you seriously. You are surprised that cases are increasing when we have increasing testing and people are no longer hiding under their bed but trying to adapt to a new normal?

I swear some of you are trying to root for an economic implosion in this country just so your boy can be in office. most of this country has excepted the risk that comes with this virus. Hence why people are out without masks. Whether or not you agree with their approach that is the reality.

when these states approach disastrous amount of deaths like New Jersey and New York experienced then you can criticize them otherwise I think I would stop pontificating because NY/NJ Had some of the highest death rates globally.

 

[RobertG]

And record cases, from about 4000/day for a bit up to 5500 on Monday and 6500 today - pretty big jumps, which is why Gov Newsome instituted mandatory mask requirements in public. Finally a Gov in a state with a growing outbreak who gets it. It should be required for the whole damn country.

Desantis' route is to crack down on the overcrowding of bars and restaurants where cases are being transmitted, in other words, enforcing social distancing. This is the same approach that Murphy is focusing on. Desantis does not want to issue state wide mask requirements and is counting on local authorities to do so. In the southern counties of Florida there are mask requirements.

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

this is why it’s hard to take you seriously. You are surprised that cases are increasing when we have increasing testing and people are no longer hiding under their bed but trying to adapt to a new normal?

I swear some of you are trying to root for an economic implosion in this country just so your boy can be in office. most of this country has excepted the risk that comes with this virus. Hence why people are out without masks. Whether or not you agree with their approach that is the reality.

when these states approach disastrous amount of deaths like New Jersey and New York experienced then you can criticize them otherwise I think I would stop pontificating because NY/NJ Had some of the highest death rates globally.

What you’re seeing in Texas is not an effort to stave off economic meltdown. They thought it was, but then the reality of the virus hit. From the governor’s remarks: “There’s never a reason for you to have to leave your home,” he said. “Unless you do need to go out, the safest place for you is at your home.”

Texas and other places getting hit hard now won’t lockdown for political reasons, but it is likely that personal health decisions alone will cripple business and economic activity in the weeks ahead.

I think back to an interview with Ben Bernanke in March when he was asked about reopening, and he said it’s not a worthwhile topic until the health crisis is effectively managed, because the economic repercussions of chasing people back into their homes out of fear would be far worse than gritting through a longer initial lockdown.

The ‘open to save the economy’ vs ‘close to save lives’ debate was a false dichotomy. In those places where the virus is rampant, economies will suffer...end of story. Nationally, we couldn’t get the sharp decline and deep fall in cases other countries managed to achieve. We’ll see that our ‘reopening’ will be worse off for it.

 

[InGregITrust]

this is why it’s hard to take you seriously. You are surprised that cases are increasing when we have increasing testing and people are no longer hiding under their bed but trying to adapt to a new normal?

I swear some of you are trying to root for an economic implosion in this country just so your boy can be in office. most of this country has excepted the risk that comes with this virus. Hence why people are out without masks. Whether or not you agree with their approach that is the reality.

when these states approach disastrous amount of deaths like New Jersey and New York experienced then you can criticize them otherwise I think I would stop pontificating because NY/NJ Had some of the highest death rates globally.

In related news, they just cancelled the Hajj Pilgrimage to Mecca. For the first time in modern history. Pubs in Ireland! are still closed. So for anyone thinking that an increase in testing has anti-Trump roots, it’s getting harder and harder to make that case.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Quick question, should a person's skin color decide if they have access to a potential vaccine sooner than others with a different skin color here in the United States?

Serious question.

I know it sounds crazy and out of a bad sci-fi flick. Can't possibly be serious conversation... Right?

 

[RUBOB72]

And record cases, from about 4000/day for a bit up to 5500 on Monday and 6500 today - pretty big jumps, which is why Gov Newsome instituted mandatory mask requirements in public. Finally a Gov in a state with a growing outbreak who gets it. It should be required for the whole damn country.

Quick question, should a person's skin color decide if they have access to a potential vaccine sooner than others with a different skin color here in the United States?

Serious question.

I know it sounds crazy and out of a bad sci-fi flick. Can't possibly be serious conversation... Right?

I would hope not for all concerned but there are plenty of very bad actors out there . I’m more curious to see how many of the “ I’m not putting a foreign substance into my body group” changes their narrative.