ADVERTISEMENT

COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

Status
Not open for further replies.
that the health community wrote papers saying that it was IMPORTANT for people to protest superceding coronavirus spread says it all,

my thing on CE has always been about hypocrisy and we are seeing it here with coverage of coronavirus
Should be noted I agree here.

And I don't think Governors coming out saying "Hey protesters please stop, you are spreading the virus" would actually stop anything, but I do think that should have been the message.

Although I can't say there is clear evidence that the protests created a surge in cases. I would have thought it would, but I don't think it has. Not in a significant way.

As @Barnaby&Neill noted a few pages back, there are many more interactions of normal every day life(see home depot, see food stores) then at these protests. Yes 60K people marching looks like a lot of people, but then you consider California has 40 million people.
 
It's a real thing, official reports have a lag. Deny it if you want, but it's reality.
Lags in confirmed cases leading to hospitalizations leading to deaths makes sense...a 7-14 day lag in simply counting a covid hospitalization with today's rapid testing results and technology makes no sense and should not be happening. 2-3 days...maybe.
 
Just to be clear, that AZ dashboard in the first Horowitz article did turn out to be invalid but the rest of his article was pretty spot on re: first hand sources describing the reasons for case increases. As for that specific chart and its lag in reporting, I don't recall any media reporting about such lags at the time. And importantly, it's still kinda difficult to understand how and why there would be 1-2 week lags in reporting such vital information in this era of high tech medical recordkeeping and high speed telecommunications, imo.
There is no need to report on the lag of official counts, as the unofficial counts are very accurate, although not precisely allocated to the specific date of death.

The rest of Horowitz's article? We could go back and rehash it, but I'd rather just move on. The point here is the CDC report Bac references is almost certainly lagging.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Greg2020
thats great but lets not cheer for the blue states that they did so well which they didnt..with masks..as they are filling the top 10 deaths and cases..dont you see my point

all of sudden, the libs here and in the msm are shouting at the red states yet perhaps some self reflection...beyond the pale there was a thread laughing at SEC states and saying they are going to be why we dont play football in the fall..wow..embarrassing for those posters...ditto for cuomo who chided De Santis at the same time sent grandma to die nursing homes, you cant get around that and that is not political...very glossed over in this thread..very

You still don't understand what happened. I'll try again. The NE US was blindsided by the most explosive exponential growth in the short history of this new virus, since there was zero testing until about the 2nd week in March after there were tens of thousands of cases. Back then, unlike now, thanks to the complete abdication of planning and guidance from the Federal Government, there was little testing to know where the outbreaks were and how they were spreading, there were no recommendations of masks, leaving distancing/staying at home as the only intervention, so yeah, the NE US states did horribly.

We've learned a ton since then and all of these states that are seeing peaks knew that they weren't ready to reopen (not meeting most of the metrics to do so) and did so anyway and most of them aren't practicing mask-wearing despite masks now being known to almost completely stop transmissions. Nobody's "laughing" at anyone. The lack of leadership from the Feds and many governors which allowed this to happen makes me want to cry.
 
There is no need to report on the lag of official counts, as the unofficial counts are very accurate, although not precisely allocated to the specific date of death.

The rest of Horowitz's article? We could go back and rehash it, but I'd rather just move on. The point here is the CDC report Bac references is almost certainly lagging.
Well the unofficial hospitalization counts in AZ for that week and subsequent weeks still seem far from accurate.

I'm fine with my position on the other aspects of that Horowitz article.
 
might need to tighten things up a bit...yes, but bottom line is everyone has to open, people seem oblivious that this isnt going to go away and the new normal will have plenty of cases and deaths as well
And you don't get this either. If we had 100% mask wearing (it's so easy yet so many refuse to consider their neighbors, friends or just fellow citizens) our case and death rates would be near zero, like they are in most of east Asia. We don't "have" to live with this level of cases, illnesses, or deaths. It's beyond mind boggling that there's not a Federal mandate to wear masks.
 
Lags in confirmed cases leading to hospitalizations leading to deaths makes sense...a 7-14 day lag in simply counting a covid hospitalization with today's rapid testing results and technology makes no sense and should not be happening. 2-3 days...maybe.
I hear you.

My gf who was a nurse hated how much of nursing was paper work , and I think that is certainly part of the problem here. Yet we want quick reporting, we want them doing paper work. Thus the conundrum.

But when I go to the AZ (or name your state)site and I don't actually see up to date(or even close) reporting on certain metrics? Ya, it's lame.
 
Last edited:
And you don't get this either. If we had 100% mask wearing (it's so easy yet so many refuse to consider their neighbors, friends or just fellow citizens) our case and death rates would be near zero, like they are in most of east Asia. We don't "have" to live with this level of cases, illnesses, or deaths. It's beyond mind boggling that there's not a Federal mandate to wear masks.


wait now you are basically saying that masks are almost as good as a vaccine..yes i know you didnt say it but you basically did say it when you said...near zero cases and death rates..wow the propaganda is strong here...remember the WHO, CDC, and Fauci all very very contradictory on masks throughout, who knew that they were killing people all along...tens of thousands because they said masks didnt matter

i am not saying masks do not matter, however your take that masks are basically everything i am going to call out, the truth lies somewhere in between
 
  • Like
Reactions: RUBOB72
You still don't understand what happened. I'll try again. The NE US was blindsided by the most explosive exponential growth in the short history of this new virus, since there was zero testing until about the 2nd week in March after there were tens of thousands of cases. Back then, unlike now, thanks to the complete abdication of planning and guidance from the Federal Government***, there was little testing to know where the outbreaks were and how they were spreading, there were no recommendations of masks, leaving distancing/staying at home as the only intervention, so yeah, the NE US states did horribly.

We've learned a ton since then and all of these states that are seeing peaks knew that they weren't ready to reopen (not meeting most of the metrics to do so) and did so anyway and most of them aren't practicing mask-wearing despite masks now being known to almost completely stop transmissions. Nobody's "laughing" at anyone. The lack of leadership from the Feds and many governors which allowed this to happen makes me want to cry.
***Not according to transcripts from CDC public telebriefing call @2/26/2020 with reporters:

"The U.S. has been implementing an aggressive containment strategy that requires detecting, tracking, and isolating all cases. As much as possible and preventing more introduction of disease notably at points of entry. We’ve restricted travel into the United States while also issuing extensive travel advisories for countries currently experiencing community spread. Our travel notices are changing almost daily. We’ve also enacted the first quarantine of this scale in the U.S. And are supporting the state department and HHS in repatriating citizens from high-risk areas. We are doing this with the goal of slowing the introduction of this new virus into the U.S. And buying us more time to prepare. To date, our containment strategies have been largely successful. As a result, we have very few cases in the United States and no spread in the community. But as more and more countries experience community spread, successful containment at our borders becomes harder and harder. Ultimately, we expect we will see community spread in this country. It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness. We will maintain for as long as practical a dual approach where we continue measures to contain this disease but also employ strategies to minimize the impact on our communities. At this time, there’s no vaccine to protect against this new virus and no medications approved to treat it. Non-pharmaceutical interventions or NPIs will be the most important tools in our response to this virus. What these interventions look like at the community level will vary depending on local conditions. What is appropriate for one community seeing local transmission won’t necessarily be appropriate for a community where no local transmission has occurred. This parallel, proactive approach of containment and mitigation will delay the emergence of community spread in the United States while simultaneously reducing its ultimate impact. To illustrate how this works, I’d like to share with you some of the specific recommendations made in the document I mentioned last Friday including some of the steps we would take here if needed. This document is called Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza United States 2017. It draws from the findings of nearly 200 journal articles written between 1990 and 2016. This document looked at what can be done at the individual and community level during a pandemic when we don’t have a vaccine or proven medical treatment for the disease. We’re looking at data since 2016 and adjusting our recommendations to the specific circumstances of COVID-19. But this posted document provides a frame work for our response strategy. Based on what is known now, we would implement these NPI measures in a very aggressive, proactive way as he have been doing with our containment efforts.

There are three categories of NPIs. Personal NPIs
which include personal protective measures you can take every day and personal protective measures reserved for pandemics. Community NPIs which include social distancing measures designed to keep people who are sick away from others. And school closures and dismissals. And environmental NPIs which includes surface cleaning measures. NPIs routinely recommended for prevention of respiratory virus transmission include everyday personal protective measures. These are preventive measures we recommend during influenza season. These NPIs are recommended during a pandemic regardless of the severity level of the respiratory illness. Personal protective measures reserved for pandemics include voluntary home quarantine of household members who have been exposed to someone they live with who is sick. Now I’d like to talk through some examples of what community NPIs look like. These are practical measures that can help limit exposure by reducing exposure in community settings. Students in smaller groups or in a severe pandemic, closing schools and using internet-based teleschooling to continue education. For adults, businesses can replace in-person meetings with video or telephone conferences and increase teleworking options. On a larger scale, communities may need to modify, postpone, or cancel mass gatherings. Looking at how to increase telehealth services and delaying elective surgery. The implementation of environmental NPIs would require everyone to consistently clean frequently touched surfaces and objects at home, at school, at work, and at large gatherings. Local communities will need to look at which NPIs to implement and when based on how transmission and disease is and what can be done locally. This will require flexibility and adaptations as disease progresses and new information becomes available. Some of these measures are better than none. But the maximum benefit occurs when the elements are layered upon each other. Some community level interventions that may be most effective in reducing the spread of a new virus like school closures are also the most likely to be associated with unwanted consequences and further disruptions."

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html

So....who or what were Cuomo, Mayor Wilhelm and the NYC Director of Health Orixis Barbot listening to in Feb and March?
 
Back to Bac's point about current cases vs deaths.

Florida reported 9,585 new cases today. Far and away the most in the country. NJ by comparison reported 286 new cases. An infinitesimally low number by comparison.

But Florida reported 26 new deaths, while NJ reported 34 new deaths.

Now as noted there is a lag, the new cases will lead to deaths down the road, (it's not a fun fact but it is a fact), but the disconnect of current #'s is glaring.

I think why the deaths have dragged out so long is an interesting question. And more importantly will new treatments, or catching of cases earlier, or maybe the weakening of the virus will limit those long drawn out deaths in the future.
 
wait now you are basically saying that masks are almost as good as a vaccine..yes i know you didnt say it but you basically did say it when you said...near zero cases and death rates..wow the propaganda is strong here...remember the WHO, CDC, and Fauci all very very contradictory on masks throughout, who knew that they were killing people all along...tens of thousands because they said masks didnt matter

i am not saying masks do not matter, however your take that masks are basically everything i am going to call out, the truth lies somewhere in between
Masks are huge. Fauci is on record as saying his initial comments were intended to keep PPE in the hands of health professionals, if you look at some of his initial comments, he is actually saying it then as well. I imagine the CDC was following the same playbook.,

The WHO? I have little faith in those guys and thus give little concern.

The attacks on Fauci are the other side of the media playing games. Don't fall for it. Has he been perfect? No, but he is absolutely someone I trust on the matter.
 
***Not according to transcripts from CDC public telebriefing call @2/26/2020 with reporters:

"The U.S. has been implementing an aggressive containment strategy that requires detecting, tracking, and isolating all cases. As much as possible and preventing more introduction of disease notably at points of entry. We’ve restricted travel into the United States while also issuing extensive travel advisories for countries currently experiencing community spread. Our travel notices are changing almost daily. We’ve also enacted the first quarantine of this scale in the U.S. And are supporting the state department and HHS in repatriating citizens from high-risk areas. We are doing this with the goal of slowing the introduction of this new virus into the U.S. And buying us more time to prepare. To date, our containment strategies have been largely successful. As a result, we have very few cases in the United States and no spread in the community. But as more and more countries experience community spread, successful containment at our borders becomes harder and harder. Ultimately, we expect we will see community spread in this country. It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness. We will maintain for as long as practical a dual approach where we continue measures to contain this disease but also employ strategies to minimize the impact on our communities. At this time, there’s no vaccine to protect against this new virus and no medications approved to treat it. Non-pharmaceutical interventions or NPIs will be the most important tools in our response to this virus. What these interventions look like at the community level will vary depending on local conditions. What is appropriate for one community seeing local transmission won’t necessarily be appropriate for a community where no local transmission has occurred. This parallel, proactive approach of containment and mitigation will delay the emergence of community spread in the United States while simultaneously reducing its ultimate impact. To illustrate how this works, I’d like to share with you some of the specific recommendations made in the document I mentioned last Friday including some of the steps we would take here if needed. This document is called Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza United States 2017. It draws from the findings of nearly 200 journal articles written between 1990 and 2016. This document looked at what can be done at the individual and community level during a pandemic when we don’t have a vaccine or proven medical treatment for the disease. We’re looking at data since 2016 and adjusting our recommendations to the specific circumstances of COVID-19. But this posted document provides a frame work for our response strategy. Based on what is known now, we would implement these NPI measures in a very aggressive, proactive way as he have been doing with our containment efforts.

There are three categories of NPIs. Personal NPIs
which include personal protective measures you can take every day and personal protective measures reserved for pandemics. Community NPIs which include social distancing measures designed to keep people who are sick away from others. And school closures and dismissals. And environmental NPIs which includes surface cleaning measures. NPIs routinely recommended for prevention of respiratory virus transmission include everyday personal protective measures. These are preventive measures we recommend during influenza season. These NPIs are recommended during a pandemic regardless of the severity level of the respiratory illness. Personal protective measures reserved for pandemics include voluntary home quarantine of household members who have been exposed to someone they live with who is sick. Now I’d like to talk through some examples of what community NPIs look like. These are practical measures that can help limit exposure by reducing exposure in community settings. Students in smaller groups or in a severe pandemic, closing schools and using internet-based teleschooling to continue education. For adults, businesses can replace in-person meetings with video or telephone conferences and increase teleworking options. On a larger scale, communities may need to modify, postpone, or cancel mass gatherings. Looking at how to increase telehealth services and delaying elective surgery. The implementation of environmental NPIs would require everyone to consistently clean frequently touched surfaces and objects at home, at school, at work, and at large gatherings. Local communities will need to look at which NPIs to implement and when based on how transmission and disease is and what can be done locally. This will require flexibility and adaptations as disease progresses and new information becomes available. Some of these measures are better than none. But the maximum benefit occurs when the elements are layered upon each other. Some community level interventions that may be most effective in reducing the spread of a new virus like school closures are also the most likely to be associated with unwanted consequences and further disruptions."

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html

So....who or what were Cuomo, Mayor Wilhelm and the NYC Director of Health Orixis Barbot listening to in Feb and March?
You really needed to include the entirety of that sentence in the bold.

But I do think at the city level, that was a politcal move that blew up in their faces. It wasn't the first in this pandemic.
 
You really needed to include the entirety of that sentence in the bold.

But I do think at the city level, that was a politcal move that blew up in their faces. It wasn't the first in this pandemic.
Not sure what you mean about the entirety of which sentence?
 
I went to a bar today in a normally happening part of town.

Pent up demand is largely myth. The v-shape recovery is dead. People are cautious.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RutgHoops
I will make a quick case for what media I do trust.

The stock shows on cnbc, which are business centric but right now include a ton of covid are good. Dr. Gottlieb has a daily weekday spot both in the morning and the evening. Excellent.

Brett Baier, though I have not watched him much in recent months as I have been following the stock shows. I think if the country were to watch just his show for national news we'd be in a much better place.

Chris Wallace on Sundays. Despite being on Fox I feel he does lean a little left, but for the most part pretty much down the middle.
 
I went to a bar today in a normally happening part of town.

Pent up demand is largely myth. The v-shape recovery is dead. People are cautious.
We'll see...people will spend disposable income somewhere if not at a bar. Maybe upgrade the house, buy new clothes, a new car, etc.
 
Not sure what you mean about the entirety of which sentence?
The rest of sentence which was not bolded.


"there was little testing to know where the outbreaks were and how they were spreading, there were no recommendations of masks, leaving distancing/staying at home as the only intervention, so yeah, the NE US states did horribly."

NYC was slammed, while other cities like Chicago, or Miami, or Dallas were let off the hook early on. Did those other cities implement restrictions that NYC did not?
 
I will make a quick case for what media I do trust.

The stock shows on cnbc, which are business centric but right now include a ton of covid are good. Dr. Gottlieb has a daily weekday spot both in the morning and the evening. Excellent.

Brett Baier, though I have not watched him much in recent months as I have been following the stock shows. I think if the country were to watch just his show for national news we'd be in a much better place.

Chris Wallace on Sundays. Despite being on Fox I feel he does lean a little left, but for the most part pretty much down the middle.


fair response, cant argue with you too much. not a fan of Wallace at all but thats my bias.

here is a question, i am reading more and more about border crossings responsible for uptake in cases in AZ, CA, and TX....is this board treating this as a conspiracy theory because the media isnt touching the story or is there something to this
 
  • Like
Reactions: LC-88 and King of S
We'll see...people will spend disposable income somewhere if not at a bar. Maybe upgrade the house, buy new clothes, a new car, etc.

I’m speaking several drinks deep, and with pain and sorrow in my heart, but I think we’re in for a painful recovery the likes of which most of us have never experienced. I’m in a State that is reopening, cases in good shape, but I think the consumer is scared / hurting.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RutgHoops
I went to a bar today in a normally happening part of town.

Pent up demand is largely myth. The v-shape recovery is dead. People are cautious.
Which leads me to a thought I've been knocking about in my head.

The next stimulus should directly target those businesses that have been hit the hardest.

I admit, I didn't need the first $1200, but I did want it. I don't want another one. Give it to the bars and restaurants in the form of PPP.

Open up all retail where masks can be worn. People may be wary of going to a business where masks are not worn, but if Home Depot is any indication, they have no issue going to a store where masks are worn. And as our case #'s indicate, Home Depot, despite off the chart sales through the entirety of this, is not a significant spread point.
 
Last edited:
Lets see how many peeps are game to eating inside a restaurant no masks. I bet few at this stage. Restaurants will surely shrivel and die if this comes back around in October.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jm0513
fair response, cant argue with you too much. not a fan of Wallace at all but thats my bias.

here is a question, i am reading more and more about border crossings responsible for uptake in cases in AZ, CA, and TX....is this board treating this as a conspiracy theory because the media isnt touching the story or is there something to this
I've stayed away from it. Likely some truth to it, and maybe a significant factor in certain border towns, but I doubt it's significant in the grand scheme.

Just from a numbers perspective, we are reporting 40kish new cases a day in this country. How many sick Mexicans can possibly be crossing the border?
 
Ebj2gSQX0AAGCPg
 
  • Like
Reactions: biker7766
The rest of sentence which was not bolded.


"there was little testing to know where the outbreaks were and how they were spreading, there were no recommendations of masks, leaving distancing/staying at home as the only intervention, so yeah, the NE US states did horribly."

NYC was slammed, while other cities like Chicago, or Miami, or Dallas were let off the hook early on. Did those other cities implement restrictions that NYC did not?
I've acknowledged the CDC lab testing failure.

NYC is the holiday season mecca of the world and the chicomvirus was seeding. @ashokan provided reports and links of NYC covering-up cases early on in the old CE. Trump imposed international travel restrictions, the CDC was working with states and local metro areas on preparing for a crisis to come, yet NY leaders didn't just ignore it all, they defied it.
 
Not unexpected. Cases come first. The deaths will follow. Yeah not as bad as early on as we catch way more cases, we catch the cases earlier and we have significantly better treatments, but we've already seen the hospitalizations follow the case #'s and we will see the deaths follow that. It's a hard truth, but people need to get away from this idea that the virus is not that bad.
 
I've acknowledged the CDC lab testing failure.

NYC is the holiday season mecca of the world and the chicomvirus was seeding. @ashokan provided reports and links of NYC covering-up cases early on in the old CE. Trump imposed international travel restrictions, the CDC was working with states and local metro areas on preparing for a crisis to come, yet NY leaders didn't just ignore it all, they defied it.
I have to cut DeBlasio some slack. There is no way he knew what was coming. No way he was properly informed.

BUT.

He played politics, Trump Zigged on China, so he Zagged, he embraced the chinese festival, he pushed the narrative all was well, everyone get out there and enjoy.

A purely political move that completely blew up in his face.

I think it was more unfortunate then a terrible call, but it is very much on his record. The same needs to also be said for the top of the food chain as well.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ronnie_B
cases are not death, we are testing alot now...moving goalposts, i am not saying that they arent spiking in some areas, i just find the coverage of it to be entirely poltical and negative at this point...was this how they were covering the horrific number of cases in ny and nj...absolutely not, they werent blaming people for not wearing masks and not social distancing
Right on BAC!
 
Lets see how many peeps are game to eating inside a restaurant no masks. I bet few at this stage. Restaurants will surely shrivel and die if this comes back around in October.
I'll do it, but only if it's a small # of people in the restaurant.

But yeah, the restaurants need to be protected. Money should not be given to people so they can buy fall fertilizer, or a sweet new leaf blower.

And look, we need to spread this message, not necessarily from the roof tops, but simple messages. This isn't over, just look at what is happening in the south, #'s are spiking, Republican run states are reclosing bars, these are not partisan maneuvers, this is real. If you don't want another spike in the fall, and the economic ramifications that come with it, stay diligent. Wear your mask, maintain distance, nudge others to do the same, simple but effective stuff in the grand scheme.
 
Last edited:
Wow, more proof Covid 19 is mutating down.
I see that as a maybe at best.

In addition to other possible downward pressures on fatalities, what is very noticeable on that graph, and something I've noted multiple times on graphs similar to this, is that there is an almost definite lag in reporting. Check back in two weeks, those most recent #'s will most certainly be higher.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Greg2020
Lets see how many peeps are game to eating inside a restaurant no masks. I bet few at this stage. Restaurants will surely shrivel and die if this comes back around in October.
Nope, Long Island and Connecticut already have proven people will eat inside.
 
I see that as a maybe at best.

In addition to other possible downward pressures on fatalities, what is very noticeable on that graph, and something I've noted multiple times on graphs similar to this. It's a lag in reporting. Check back in two weeks, those most recent #'s will most certainly be higher.
Covid19 sister SARS mutated down. Why not Covid 19?
 
  • Like
Reactions: biker7766
Nope, Long Island and Connecticut already have proven people will eat inside.
To what extent though? What is current capacity in those areas?

And more to his point, what if cases spike in fall? Will people still be so eager to go eat in a restaurant?
 
To what extent though? What is current capacity in those areas?

And more to his point, what if cases spike in fall? Will people still be so eager to go eat in a restaurant?
Let’s get through July first. Have you been to an outside restaurant yet?
 
Covid19 sister SARS mutated down. Why not Covid 19?
I don't deny that it could, or maybe even has, but is that why that graph is showing a significant decrease in fatalities? No.

I feel like a broken record on this, but we keep seeing these graphs come up that show an obvious lag in reporting.

Worldometer is not super precise in terms of allocating deaths to a specific day. Official gov't #'s will prove much more accurate in the long run, but in term of recent #'s, worldometer is a much better source.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Greg2020
I don't deny that it could, or maybe even has, but is that why that graph is showing a significant decrease in fatalities? No.

I feel like a broken record on this, but we keep seeing these graphs come up that show an obvious lag in reporting.

Worldometer is not super precise in terms of allocating deaths to a specific day. Official gov't #'s will prove much more accurate in the long run, but in term of recent #'s, worldometer is a much better source.
Even with the lag, deaths are way down. Viruses mutate to survive.
 
  • Like
Reactions: biker7766
I do hope to get out this week. I've just been working like a dog lately, in a very busy retail store, and thus have been too tired to go out.

Outdoor dining does sound like fun though.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
ADVERTISEMENT