Relatives and friends of those who died certainly will remember. Many books and scholarly papers will still be studied 20 years from now. We have a lot to learn about this virus and those that may come after. Preparation and response will be better. This virus and response will not be sweep under the table
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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There is no reason for not opening golf courses. I thought he handled things well at first and is now just being obstinate. No common sense and you need both economic health and public health. Maybe the gov should get out and see some 3rd world country to see how public health is when you are destitute.
My point is there is nothing new in the statistics that they site. This is a conservative group which which came out against Obama Care, so I wouldn't put much stock in that they are acting in a non-political fashion.
Along with academic papers on the virus, 20 years from now Political Scientists will be writing papers on how HCQ became such a polarizing topic, that even doctors and scientist in the mist of a pandemic allowed their judgement to be affected, either for or against HCQ as a treatment.
nah nobody will remember the time they were stuck in their homes for months and had to wear a mask wherever they went.
To date, cov2 has now killed more Americans than the Vietnam war and you think people will not remember this pandemic?
Latest (4/21) projections are out from the U of Washington/IHME; bulleted highlights and graphics below.
Keep in mind that these projections are for the "first wave" of the outbreak, through about August and they assume that we will continue current social distancing practices and will start easing back on those soon, but only in conjunction with an improved containment infrastructure of testing, contact tracing and quarantining, as per the excerpt below from their model page. The fact that some states are now looking to ease back sooner will likely mean that deaths in those states will end up higher than modeled - how many more is the big question.
- The model shows a bump back up in projected US deaths vs. the 4/17 run, i.e., from 60.3K on 4/17 to 66.0K on 4/21.
- The progression of total projected US deaths for each model run is as follows: from 93K on 4/1 to 82K on 4/5 to 60K on 4/7 to 69K on 4/13 to 60.3K on 4/17 and now back up to 66.0K on 4/21.
- The projected NY deaths jumped significantly from the 14.5K in the 4/13 run to 21.8K on 4/17, to 23.7K on 4/21, due to NY now counting many more "presumed" COVID deaths without actual positive viral tests (mostly in hospitals with some in nursing homes), as per an interview with Dr. Murray tonight (and the update notes).
- Projected NJ deaths also jumped a bit from 4.4K in the 4/13 run to 6.9K on 4/17 to 7.1K on 4/21 (although it was 9.6K on 4/5).
- The US projected deaths jumped by 5.7K, partly due to NY/NJ jumping by 2.1K and partly because the rest of the US projection went up by 3.6K.
- I'm now certain that my 40-50K prediction for US deaths from 4/5, based mostly on my comparison of the US death rates vs. Italy's death rates and the math of the two curves, will be incorrect and that more than 60K is now nearly certain, unfortunately.
Social distancing policies, which can range from restrictions on large gatherings to strict stay-at-home orders and closure of all non-essential businesses, have been used as a mechanism to substantially reduce the spread – and thus the immediate toll – of COVID-19. We are now entering the phase of the epidemic when government officials are considering when certain types of distancing policies may be eased. With today’s release, we provide initial estimates that can serve as an input to such considerations in the US.
These estimates assume that when social distancing policies will be eased, such actions will occur in conjunction with public health containment strategies. Such measures include widespread testing, contact tracing, and isolation of new cases to minimize the risk of resurgence while maintaining at least some social distancing policies to reduce the risk of large-scale transmission (e.g., bans on mass gatherings).
http://www.healthdata.org/covid
Latest (4/27) projections are out from the U of Washington/IHME; bulleted highlights and graphics below.
- The model shows a fairly significant bump back up in projected US deaths vs. the 4/21 run, i.e., from 66.0K on 4/21 to 74.1K on 4/27 and this is likely to go up to at least 80K, IMO.
- The progression of total projected US deaths for each model run is as follows: from 93K on 4/1 to 82K on 4/5 to 60K on 4/7 to 69K on 4/13 to 60.3K on 4/17 to 66.0K on 4/21 and back up to 74.1K on 4/27.
- The projected NY deaths are now 23.9K; the progression of model estimates has been as follows: from 14.5K in the 4/13 run to 21.8K on 4/17, to 23.7K on 4/21 and now 23.9K on 4/27. The early jump was due to NY now counting many more "presumed" COVID deaths without actual positive viral tests (mostly in hospitals with some in nursing homes), as per the update notes.
- The projected NJ deaths are now 7.2K; the progression of model estimates has been as follows: from 4.4K in the 4/13 run to 6.9K on 4/17 to 7.1K on 4/21 to 7.2K on 4/27.
- The US projected deaths jumped by 8.1K, but this latest jump is not due to NY/NJ jumps (only up 0.3K), as the projection for the rest of the US went up by 7.8K.
- Here's what the IHME said about this: "At least part of this increase is due to many states experiencing flatter and thus longer epidemic peaks. Further, updated data indicate that daily COVID-19 deaths are not falling very quickly after the peak, leading to longer tails for many states’ epidemic curves. In combination – less abrupt peaks and slower declines in daily COVID-19 deaths following the peak – many places in the US could have higher cumulative deaths from the novel coronavirus."
- When I made my 40-50K prediction for US deaths on 4/5, I was assuming we'd have very aggressive social distancing everywhere in the US, which hasn't quite been the case, plus I was probably just being a bit too hopeful we'd do better. Should have stayed with my original guess of ~85K US deaths from 3/26, which assumed modest SD (enough to limit infections to 5% of the population with an infection fatality rate of 0.7%; although we now know that way more than 5% are likely infected in some locations, like NY with 15% with antibodies).
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
It's been asked what an antigen is. Here's CNN's take: "Antigen tests, which look for characteristic structures from a virus, are often used for rapid flu tests."
Thus these tests appear to be quite different from antibody tests, which look to see whether a person has developed what's needed to fight the virus.
If I am wrong, I promise to delete this post.
Thus these tests appear to be quite different from antibody tests, which look to see whether a person has developed what's needed to fight the virus.
If I am wrong, I promise to delete this post.
Bullshit. This will be a mark in time for many people.
https://www.iltempo.it/salute/2020/...-terapia-idrossiclorochina-sars-cov2-1321227/
Use google translate unless you speak Italian.
Finally, further confirmation of this hypothesis is the data collected in the register of the SIR (Italian rheumatology society). To assess the possible correlations between chronic patients and Covid19, SIR interrogated 1,200 rheumatologists throughout Italy to collect statistics on infections. Out of an audience of 65,000 chronic patients (Lupus and Rheumatoid Arthritis), who systematically take Plaquenil / hydroxychloroquine, only 20 patients tested positive for the virus. Nobody died, nobody is in intensive care, according to the data collected so far.
Use google translate unless you speak Italian.
Finally, further confirmation of this hypothesis is the data collected in the register of the SIR (Italian rheumatology society). To assess the possible correlations between chronic patients and Covid19, SIR interrogated 1,200 rheumatologists throughout Italy to collect statistics on infections. Out of an audience of 65,000 chronic patients (Lupus and Rheumatoid Arthritis), who systematically take Plaquenil / hydroxychloroquine, only 20 patients tested positive for the virus. Nobody died, nobody is in intensive care, according to the data collected so far.
It certainly could have helped. As the fluid was building in the lungs, the oxygen sarurations recorded by the pulse oximeter would have been dropping.
The pandemic that shut the world down won't be remembered? LOL!!!!
The only was this doesn't get remembered is if something worse happens.
Antigens are molecules capable of stimulating an immune response. Each antigen has distinct surface features, resulting in specific responses.
Antibodies (immunoglobins) are Y-shaped proteins produced by B cells of the immune system in response to exposure to antigens.
so does hcq work or not? does it have to be in conjunction with the other med? whats the chances our doctors pay attention to this
You're correct, but below is a better summary of the two tests for presence of a viral infection (the PCR test that looks for viral nucleic acids and has been used to date for all virus tests and the hopefully new antigen test for key proteins from the virus) and the antibody test for the body's response to having been infected by the virus (and hopefully immune/non-contagious).
The big potential of the antigen test is it could be an instant test for things like admission to large events or just for going to work or a restaurant. But there are many technical hurdles in making an antigen test that would be sensitive enough to "see" all viral infections (for the flu, they're only ~70% sensitive, which doesn't have the same impact in being wrong as it does for CV, since CV has so many asymptomatic potential carriers), so there's a long way to go.
What’s an antigen test? While PCR tests look for evidence of viral genetic material, and antibody testing detects human antibodies against the virus, antigen tests look for fragments of viral surface proteins as a marker for infection. (An antigen is the part of a pathogen that elicits an immune response.) These proteins, usually from the coronavirus’s surface spikes, are big enough to study on their own, without spending time and energy making new copies.
https://www.technologyreview.com/20...faster-cheaper-diagnose-covid-19-coronavirus/
These are just observations from Italian doctors on the front lines. No clinical studies, etc. However, they seem to believe that it works when given as a prophylactic or early in the disease which meshes well with the in vitro science. Here in the US we say stay home until you are about to die then seek help.
https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/20...-sperimentazione-crollo-dei-ricoveri/5783544/
Google translate sucks but you will get the gist
"I am a doctor and, positive for Covid19 , I immediately took hydroxychloroquine : in 3-4 days the fever and the other symptoms disappeared ". This is how Paola Varese , head of cancer medicine at the Ovada hospital in Piedmont , begins . "I applied the same protocol on myself that I planned for 276 patients at home," continues Varese , stressing that "timely intervention by family doctors in patients' homes is essential, with hydroxychloroquine associated with heparin (and if necessary the ' antibiotic ). It is presumable - he says - that the collapse of thehospitalization is due to the immediate use of the drug : we only had 7 hospitalizations: according to the projected expectations of the ISS we should have had 55 ".
Hydroxychloroquine is one of the treatments against Coronavirus being tested , and is approved by AIFA (Italian Medicines Agency). The pioneer in this field is the Director of Hematology-Oncology of Piacenza, Luigi Cavanna . It was the first in Italy to use it, an intuition that is proving significant . “Since February 25, I have treated 209 patients and in 90% of cases the response has been positive . Hospitalizations have collapsed: from 30% of hospitalized (serious or moderate cases) to less than 5% ". The change, according to Cavanna, came with administrationof hydroxychloroquine from the early stages of the disease , when patients were at home, and resulted in the hospitalization of very few cases in acute conditions. A treatment that, according to preliminary data collected and systematized by 5 different ASLs on 1,039 patients, is working throughout Italy .
This may go down in history as the dumbest post ever on this board. This pandemic is in the top 5 events in the US in the last 100 years: Great Depression, WWII, Vietnam, 9/11, and this pandemic
Hmmm..I'd have to see all the data in this study. Are the physicians accounting for all 65,000 of those patients? Are they saying all 65k were tested? Assuming all 65k were from Italy and using a basic ratio (keeping things simple here) of Italy's current positive Covid-19 numbers in relation to Italy's total population, the expected amount of positive patients in the 65k population would be about 218.
#6 top U.S. event: Suriano and Ashnault earning national championships.
#7 top U.S. event: Pandemonium in Piscataway!!!
Many thanks!! As you can tell, biology was not my best subject in high school!!
i do, I blame them all. You don'e see me making political posts but I think at the federal level they all failed, and most at the state level
We have short memories and that is a good thing . The world will be very different in 2040 . Millions of people will be dead that lived through this. The more advanced we become the less we dwell on the negative things. Do you believe in 20 years the Trade Center disaster will be met with the same vigor as it did years 1-5-10-15...it gets less and less as years pass. There will be other issues which will take over the news.
WTF is wrong with you ? Nobody said it wouldn’t be in the annals of history but it will be over and old history. You are another with a big mouth who could not wait to interject your attack . I don’t know how old you are so you may or may not see whether it gets the same attention as it does now. If I make 20 more I’ll be in my 90’s and won’t give a shit what you think. You are highly educated but arrogant and self opinionated . Since it is 2020 not 20 years in the future neither you nor I can actually know how the world will view this pandemic... we have had numerous pandemics throughout history. What makes this pandemic so bad ? The daily overblown media coverage which is no better than your favorite Trump. The issue you had was it didn’t fit with Mr. Merck’s opinion on what are the most horrific disasters in the history of man. Vietnam was not a war. It was a police action not a war. You probably protested while others actually where sent by the government to fight in a senseless conflict. Most under age 35 basically know very little about and probably don’t care about the Great Depression.Don’t patronize me fool.
Plus at the international level - God Bless the WHO, right?
I agree completely. I am disgusted with all of them. We deserve better than this.
Thank you for correcting me!!!!!! Yes at an International level they failed us.
yes absolutely they failed miserably and I believe it was political to protect china
This article is weak. No sources, no papers, nothing other than a claim without one scintilla of evidence for that claim. Given what I posted below, the claim sounds very unlikely, although until we see the data from the study referred to in your link, I guess it's possible it could be true. However, I'd suggest posting more reputable articles/links. This is somewhat reminiscient of the unattributed/unlinked screed on iron/porphyrin and HCQ you posted on 4/9 from that nutjob jarasan's blog, especially since this "article" is circulating like wildfire on far right wing sites.
I'll stick with what the Lupus Foundation of America has said below in italics.
https://www.lupus.org/blog/are-people-with-lupus-protected-against-covid19
"There is no evidence that taking hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil) is effective in preventing a person from contracting the coronavirus (COVID-19). People with lupus should follow the guidance of their doctor and the safety guidelines being issued by the CDC."
In addition, a recent communication, excerpted below, shows that (in a small study) the frequency of lupus patients with COVID-19 is much higher than would be expected vs. those with RA.
An initial analysis of patients included in the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance registry shows that 19 (17%) of 110 patients with rheumatic diseases who have been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of 1 April 2020 were patients with lupus.2 The frequency of patients with lupus who have been diagnosed with COVID-19 was overrepresented at ~50% of that reported for rheumatoid arthritis, a disease that is ~4 to 8 times more prevalent than lupus in the adult population in the USA.
https://ard.bmj.com/content/annrheumdis/early/2020/04/24/annrheumdis-2020-217656.full.pdf
I am 35 and I know and care about the Depression! When my grandmother passed I cleaned out her basement. She must have had a years worth of canned food, and she opened my first Savings account with me when I was eight year old. Both, because she lived the Depression.
It's worse than that, as per below. It's theoretically possible they're correct this time, but given the positions they've taken in the past, I'm not betting on them being right on HCQ.
Advocacy of non-mainstream or scientifically discredited claims
Articles and commentaries published in the journal have argued a number of non-mainstream or scientifically discredited claims,[1] including:
- that human activity has not contributed to climate change, and that global warming will be beneficial and thus is not a cause for concern.
- that HIV does not cause AIDS.
- that the "gay male lifestyle" shortens life expectancy by 20 years.
- that there is a link between abortion and the risk of breast cancer.
- that there are possible links between autism and vaccinations.
- that government efforts to encourage smoking cessation and emphasize the addictiveness of nicotine are misguided.
I never posted anything from jarasan's(sp?) blog. I never even heard of him. He might have come across something that I did as well. In fact I remember you suggesting he had some silly rant or something. I am not into that crap and do not care too be either. I am not a fan of politics.
As for you, I wouldn't trust you to mow my lawn. To make things worse you can't help sliding your political BS into your posts. Look at what you just said...circulating on far right wing sites. So you in your usual doltish ignorant manner assumed that I got that from a far wing site whatever the f that even is. I do not read political BS like you do. That is for sheep like yourself. I found those articles by searching for updates on various drugs like remdesivir, HCQ, etc. Just like the one I posted yesterday on tocilizumab.
While checking the stock market I noticed the finance.yahoo article on AAPS. I made no judgement about any of the articles quality or value. Just that they are out there as data points, even if they are anecdotal.
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Well, it at least seems odd that you've now posted 3 articles that had their genesis in far right wing sites. I'll take you at your word that you didn't notice - my apologies. However, I'd say you might want to at least vet what you post a little closer as the sources for your Fe/porphyrin, AAAS, and this lupus post were of pretty weak quality, which is odd, as you do post a lot of really good content.
i only knew one person who took hcq for lupus. They got corona and died from it, at age 27. Didn't seem to help them.
Nice to finally see NY's new cases really dropping and this should not be a mirage or artifact of testing, since testing rates have gone up and NY is now nearing the target of having <10% of positive tests, which usually indicates that one is testing enough and the outbreak is under control.
For several weeks (roughly 3/27-4/15) the percent of positive tests was in the 40+% range, indicating that there were likely a lot more cases than the testing was showing or conversely, that NY wasn't testing enough to truly know what the case rate was.
Then it dropped a bit into the 30-40% range and then around 4/23, the testing rate went way up and the cases went up a bit, making it look like cases were truly increasing, but they really weren't - it was just that enough testing was being done to discover a far higher percentage of cases.
Finally, over the past 3 days, the positive cases have dropped below 20% and the actual totals are dropping too. I would expect this to continue until cases are <5% of tests, hopefully in the next week or so, which would be fantastic (assuming SD continues). Then we'll see what happens as the phased reopening begins. NJ has typically been 3-5 days behind NY, so hopefully we'll see something similar soon in NJ.
For several weeks (roughly 3/27-4/15) the percent of positive tests was in the 40+% range, indicating that there were likely a lot more cases than the testing was showing or conversely, that NY wasn't testing enough to truly know what the case rate was.
Then it dropped a bit into the 30-40% range and then around 4/23, the testing rate went way up and the cases went up a bit, making it look like cases were truly increasing, but they really weren't - it was just that enough testing was being done to discover a far higher percentage of cases.
Finally, over the past 3 days, the positive cases have dropped below 20% and the actual totals are dropping too. I would expect this to continue until cases are <5% of tests, hopefully in the next week or so, which would be fantastic (assuming SD continues). Then we'll see what happens as the phased reopening begins. NJ has typically been 3-5 days behind NY, so hopefully we'll see something similar soon in NJ.
Aaaaaaannnnd we're back to the ransom notes...
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