This is a very rare phenomena for a virus and not typical of a coronavirus. The only other one I’ve heard of that does this is smallpox and its apparently not as effective as SARS-cov-2
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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This is a very rare phenomena for a virus and not typical of a coronavirus. The only other one I’ve heard of that does this is smallpox and its apparently not as effective as SARS-cov-2
I think maybe you haven't been paying attention. I've discussed California a few times, but at least CA is taking significant action to try to address the rapidly growing number of cases by requiring masks in public, which ought to be done nationwide.
Anyway, back to analyzing the virus in several states. The graphic below (thanks @TroothSkr!) really shows well the relative trajectories of the outbreak in 5 of the states doing the worst right now, FL, TX, CA, GA, and AZ, which are all spiking at record numbers of cases (shown graphically as a 7-day moving average vs. that state's previous single day high) and all have key areas that are showing exponential growth, meaning we're likely to see these peaks continue to accelerate even if interventions are done today - but they're not generally speaking, although significant numbers of people in these states are wearing masks and staying at home, so my hope is their peaks won't be as exponential as they were in the NE US and especially in NY/NJ. I put NY/NJ on the graph also, just to show what our trajectory was and the growth rates in these 5 states show a lot of similarity, although the rate of rise is not quite as high. Yet.
We're also now seeing hospitalizations rising rapidly in those 5 states, which happens about a week or so after cases start jumping. And deaths are likely to start growing very soon in these states, if they follow the same trajectory as NY/NJ (NY is shown below and it's almost identical to NJ). In NY, cases started really climbing around 3/12, when testing started really being widely available; however cases were actually peaking much earlier but that wasn't being measured, but one can see the shape of the curve would've shown the peak starting maybe 3/4 to 3/8, if there had been testing, peaking about 3 weeks later around early April. However, deaths didn't really start to rise rapidly until about 3/24 about 2-3 weeks after cases started rising rapidly (depending on when the start in case rise was).
If we then look at the shape of the case curves in the 5 states on the first graph, we see cases starting to rise more rapidly in the 6/13-6/17 timeframe, which would mean that we might start to see deaths rise 2-3 weeks after that, i.e., somewhere around 6/27 to 7/1 (if 2 weeks after) or even 7/4 to 7/8 if 3 weeks after. The early NY data is so sparse it makes an exact analysis difficult to do. For me, I'd be very surprised if we don't see death rates in these 5 states starting to rise at least moderately to even rapidly sometime during the first ten days in July, i.e., it's not a surprise to me that we've only seen, at most, minor rises in deaths in these states so far.
And, as I've said previously, I'd expect the death rate rises to be muted a bit vs. NY/NJ, since we are doing better with medical procedures and now have some at least moderately effective treatments (dexamethasone, tocilizumab, remdesivir and convalescent plasma). We'll see how it plays out, but if anyone is curious, I predicted we would follow Italy's trajectory on cases/deaths as cases were rising and ~2 weeks before deaths did.
Edit: I added a 3rd graphic which just came out on worldometers, showing that the US smashed its record number of cases from just yesterday (40K), reaching 47,000 cases on Friday, way higher than the 39,000 cases we saw during the initial peak in April. This is not good folks, despite what people may have heard from Pence today.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...rventions-and-more.191275/page-6#post-4440582
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ventions-and-more.191275/page-11#post-4447909
https://covidbystate.org/?fbclid=Iw...ipEBSVFTKMw2GFInbaPF_ms#/NJ-NY-TX-FL-AZ-CA-GA
https://covidly.com/graph?country=United States&state=New York#new
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Thanks. I post almost identical info on 2 other boards and on my Facebook page, which is public. One of the other boards is 33andrain, a weather board I post weather stuff on that has a general COVID "science" thread and they moderate it pretty heavily to prevent what's happening here, so my only posts there are the informational posts for the most part (I'm also RU848789 over there). Same thing on FB, where there's very little bickering. If this thread ever gets shut down, I'll likely share my FB page; might even anyway, since I can at least weed out troll comments there (although I might get 1 a week and I have conservative/Trump-supporting friends - people are just friendlier when a place isn't anonymous, in my experience).
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/194...cases-400k-deaths-confirmed/page/15/#comments
Thanks. I believe you represent the large silent majority, but unfortunately it only takes a few to drive a thread downhill.
Thanks. He was on the list. Not everybody on that list was "derailing" things at similar levels (and any attempt to allocate level of derailing will only be derailing, lol), but I saw posts from all of them (including you and me) that really weren't productive and everyone on that list was a CE board regular - and while Greg and I are more "aligned" on politics, he's almost certainly "formerly" who was a regular too.
Actually, I generally had zero issue with your posts we debated several days ago - we disagreed, but I thought we both at least tried to use logic and sources to convince the other. If not for the fear of having this thread shut down, I would welcome the opportunity to debate more on the topics we were discussing and we could have done that on a CE board or another thread, but I knew they would detract from this thread - it's why I hesitate every time I bring up Trump and only do it once in awhile, but it's kind of hard not to occasionally, since he is the POTUS and he has an impact on how we're doing on COVID (not well).
Please take a look at the paper I posted yesterday showing the protests were actually shown to be correlated to decreases in cases due to their effect on non-protesters actually increasing their social distancing (staying at home), plus the fact that at least 50% were generally wearing masks (and definitely more in NYC/NE US).
It's a combination of that, plus the right wing guys don't like me, because I lean a little left (some call me a commie, but it's tough to be a commie when one is in the top 1-2%, lol) and have argued hard with them on the CE board. I'd rather have a CE board too, but we don't and we're not going to (I've talked to Richie about it and it's done, over), so I'm just hoping to try to convince folks to ease up a bit. That's also why I was self-critical, too, since I've made some unnecessary posts. Maybe it'll get better, maybe not.
Nice update thanks. I think the Oxford/AZ adenovirus-based vaccine will be first or maybe one of the Chinese weakened/deactivated (old school, should work) virus vaccines.
I also thought this article from Derek Lowe's blog in Science Translational Medicine was an interesting read - he does regular vaccine updates, which I usually share, but this has a different slant. He called it "Vaccine Derangement" (VDS, lol) and it explores all the nutty reasons why so many people don't trust vaccines from the debunked autism fears (still rampant) to those who fear "Big Science," Bill Gates and probably masks to those who fear RNA/DNA-based vaccines and what they might do to us and more. The excerpt below summarizes the big picture well, IMO.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/06/25/vaccine-derangement
Before concluding this depressing tour, I need to note that this area has long been a playground for propaganda of all sorts. There are a lot of people – who range, in my view, from misinformed through stupid all the way to deranged – who honestly believe the views mentioned above and promote them vigorously. And there are other groups, both inside and outside the countries involved, who don’t give a damn about vaccines one way or another but see this as an excellent (and inexpensive) way to sow fear and confusion for their own benefit. There is evidence of weaponized anti-vaccine propaganda in the last few years, so there are reasonable chances that some of the social media rantings you see about these subjects have been started or exacerbated by such actions.
If we go day by day I don't think Johns Hopkins is accurate in terms of actual tests per day.
Over the last 5 days these are the #'s reported.
3000 cases 18,200 tests
3300 cases 23,300 tests
5500 cases 27,600 tests
5000 cases 58,300 tests
8900 cases 48,200 tests
The unevenness of those results suggest that the test #'s are not precisely being allocated to a specific day. I don't think that is on Johns Hopkins, I think it has more to do with how FL is getting the data out(not a criticism most states have shown very uneven reporting), but this is what makes the rolling average so important. If you looked at just 3 days ago you would think FL is over 25%, if you looked at just 2 days ago you would think they are under 10%.
As of this morning FL's 7 day rolling average positivity rate is 14%.
Also note, I think I heard a FL health care pro say they tested 89K yesterday. Which would make some sense given that new case #. And I think that would be positive news on 2 fronts, 1)that most recent jump in new cases would not be as indicative of rapidly increasing spread, and maybe more importantly 2)FL is ramping up testing. Another sign that they are taking this more seriously.
Over the last 5 days these are the #'s reported.
3000 cases 18,200 tests
3300 cases 23,300 tests
5500 cases 27,600 tests
5000 cases 58,300 tests
8900 cases 48,200 tests
The unevenness of those results suggest that the test #'s are not precisely being allocated to a specific day. I don't think that is on Johns Hopkins, I think it has more to do with how FL is getting the data out(not a criticism most states have shown very uneven reporting), but this is what makes the rolling average so important. If you looked at just 3 days ago you would think FL is over 25%, if you looked at just 2 days ago you would think they are under 10%.
As of this morning FL's 7 day rolling average positivity rate is 14%.
Also note, I think I heard a FL health care pro say they tested 89K yesterday. Which would make some sense given that new case #. And I think that would be positive news on 2 fronts, 1)that most recent jump in new cases would not be as indicative of rapidly increasing spread, and maybe more importantly 2)FL is ramping up testing. Another sign that they are taking this more seriously.
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https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/06/26/floridas-coronavirus-spike-5-things-to-know/
Detailed article from the Tampa Bay times about the virus spread in Florida. The most interesting part i think is that Floridians began decreasing social distancing before the phased reopenings. Interesting part is NJ and NY are following the same pattern but at a lag from Florida.
Detailed article from the Tampa Bay times about the virus spread in Florida. The most interesting part i think is that Floridians began decreasing social distancing before the phased reopenings. Interesting part is NJ and NY are following the same pattern but at a lag from Florida.
Almost lol. Here's 100%. Stay hiding under your bed and no human contact whatsoever.
I like when they try to shut down the fwy everyday but aren’t smart enough to pull it off.
Probably forever. It’s all these people do apparently. Professional protestors.
He needs to keep harping on the few blue states on that list to make himself feel better.
Great new study and article in Nature , that concludes that blocking of the CCr1 and CCR5 pathways will likely calm the Covid cytokines storm, which corroborates Dr. Bruce Patterson’s paper that states Leronlimab does just that and reduces Rantes levels which were found 100 x elevated in severe/ critical patients.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41...b92dTgbF7hNwaXUX2_T2Bzn_79aFNnN5MPMvPmAFoPXE=
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41...b92dTgbF7hNwaXUX2_T2Bzn_79aFNnN5MPMvPmAFoPXE=
The mild / moderate trial just finished either the 25th or the 26th. The severe / critical interim results are supposed to conclude June 28. Company has said that the first 51 patients enrolled in that trial , which was done on June 1,, would have interim results in 28 days and full results by July 12. Based on what I have read, data will be collected , organized and delivered to the FDA within a week or 10 days thereafter.
NBA was considering this - not sure if they are doing it.
I heard about the concept a couple weeks ago.
Wilmington,NC where I live is one of the sites picked for clinical trials for a vaccine. They are calling for volunteers for phase 3 trials. My daughter in law is eligible to participate as she is in the service industry. Any opinions on whether or not she should participate would be appreciated. Thanks
Im far from an expert but it sounds like one of those things where I'd encourage a stranger to do it, but I wouldn't do it lol.
Another non expert here but among the things I'd consider is who the manufacturer is. I'd be fearful of a Chinese vaccine but would trust Johnson and Johnson's or other US / European large pharmaceutical companies.
One could think this virus was massaged in a Chinese lab with that attribute
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Excellent article, clearly showing the potential for targeting CCR1/CCR5. Thanks. Let's hope leronlimab's ongoing trials bear fruit.
CCR1, CCR2 and CCR5 might represent promising anti-inflammatory targets in COVID-19. Targeting the CCR2/CCL2 axis has been introduced in HIV and other viral infections53. However, we did not observe CCR2 expression in the respiratory tract of patients with COVID-19 (presumably because of its rapid downregulation in monocytes as they exit the bloodstream and enter tissues; Extended Data Fig. 7), leaving CCR1 and/or CCR5 as potential therapeutic targets.
I have the same concerns, given their track record with vaccine safety/efficacy, as per the post below, which is why I'd want full data transparency for any vaccine from China.
Have you ever been to Wyoming? The population is around 580 k ... there have been 1368 cases in the state with 20 deaths... 500 of those cases have been in Casper ( the capital city) and the Riverton area which is practically right next door ... that type of stat is very misleading...suggest you google a few of the others. BTW Casper is an area known for financial banking ... oh and it is about 20 times the size of NJ.
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Excellent article in the Times (which includes links to the primary research articles discussed) on the complexity of the coronavirus's impacts on the immune system, particularly on virus-fighting T-cells, which could be why effects in children are lessened, since the thymus gland, which produces new T-cells, is much more robust, typically, in children than in older adults.
Now researchers have discovered yet another unpleasant surprise. In many patients hospitalized with the coronavirus, the immune system is threatened by a depletion of certain essential cells, suggesting eerie parallels with H.I.V.
The findings suggest that a popular treatment to tamp down the immune system in severely ill patients may help a few, but could harm many others. The research offers clues about why very few children get sick when they are infected, and hints that a cocktail of drugs may be needed to bring the coronavirus under control, as is the case with H.I.V.
In May, Dr. Wherry and his colleagues posted online a paper showing a range of immune system defects in severely ill patients, including a loss of virus-fighting T cells in parts of the body.
In a separate study, the investigators identified three patterns of immune defects, and concluded that T cells and B cells, which help orchestrate the immune response, were inactive in roughly 30 percent of the 71 Covid-19 patients they examined. None of the papers have yet been published or peer reviewed.
Researchers in China have reported a similar depletion of T cells in critically ill patients, Dr. Wherry noted. But the emerging data could be difficult to interpret, he said — “like a Rorschach test.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/health/coronavirus-immune-system.html
Now researchers have discovered yet another unpleasant surprise. In many patients hospitalized with the coronavirus, the immune system is threatened by a depletion of certain essential cells, suggesting eerie parallels with H.I.V.
The findings suggest that a popular treatment to tamp down the immune system in severely ill patients may help a few, but could harm many others. The research offers clues about why very few children get sick when they are infected, and hints that a cocktail of drugs may be needed to bring the coronavirus under control, as is the case with H.I.V.
In May, Dr. Wherry and his colleagues posted online a paper showing a range of immune system defects in severely ill patients, including a loss of virus-fighting T cells in parts of the body.
In a separate study, the investigators identified three patterns of immune defects, and concluded that T cells and B cells, which help orchestrate the immune response, were inactive in roughly 30 percent of the 71 Covid-19 patients they examined. None of the papers have yet been published or peer reviewed.
Researchers in China have reported a similar depletion of T cells in critically ill patients, Dr. Wherry noted. But the emerging data could be difficult to interpret, he said — “like a Rorschach test.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/health/coronavirus-immune-system.html
Find out which vaccine it is.
This is some good news for our area....hopefully it’s maintained to some degree.
From CNN:
Less than 1% of Covid-19 tests conducted in New York state on Friday were positive
New York state has reported that less than 1% of the people tested for Covid-19 were positive, according to data released by Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
Of the roughly 73,000 tests conducted Friday, .96% were positive, the governor’s office said in a release.
New York City’s positivity rate is at 1% for Friday – down from 1.4% reported the day prior.
The state added 703 Covid-19 cases, bringing the statewide total to 391,923.
“Today's numbers show a continued, steady decline in our hospitalization and death rates, and proves that a response based on science, not politics, is only way to defeat this virus,” Cuomo said. “While this is good news, New Yorkers cannot become complacent — we must continue to remain vigilant and smart in the fight against Covid-19. Wear a mask, socially distance — be New York tough"
From CNN:
Less than 1% of Covid-19 tests conducted in New York state on Friday were positive
New York state has reported that less than 1% of the people tested for Covid-19 were positive, according to data released by Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
Of the roughly 73,000 tests conducted Friday, .96% were positive, the governor’s office said in a release.
New York City’s positivity rate is at 1% for Friday – down from 1.4% reported the day prior.
The state added 703 Covid-19 cases, bringing the statewide total to 391,923.
“Today's numbers show a continued, steady decline in our hospitalization and death rates, and proves that a response based on science, not politics, is only way to defeat this virus,” Cuomo said. “While this is good news, New Yorkers cannot become complacent — we must continue to remain vigilant and smart in the fight against Covid-19. Wear a mask, socially distance — be New York tough"
Gyms reopen in my state today.
So a disproportionate immune response might kill a critically ill patient, but they fell critically ill because their immune system was turned off by the virus — is that the right way to think about this?
Or is it: you may die from a disproportionate immune response, or you may die from immune system being turned off?
Last interpretation: parts of your immune system will respond disproportionately, possibly killing a patient, but key-virus fighting components of the immune system have already been shut off by the virus.
So a disproportionate immune response might kill a critically ill patient, but they fell critically ill because their immune system was turned off by the virus — is that the right way to think about this?
Or is it: you may die from a disproportionate immune response, or you may die from immune system being turned off?
Last interpretation: parts of your immune system will respond disproportionately, possibly killing a patient, but key-virus fighting components of the immune system have already been shut off by the virus.
Hey Cuomo we are not defeating the virus without meds or a vaccine... It just isn’t going to happen but maybe steroidal treatments ? ...Lord knows your bro Chris knows about steroids... it’s not about being tough ; it’s about using common sense... protect the most vulnerable of the populous... continue to develope plans to keep the economy open which can be done if leaders are willing to adjust as things change... not everyone is going to die ... that was pretty much what we were being told not by the science community but the people in the media.
Modern’s type of vaccine (mRNA) is new and these types of vaccines have just started to be tested in humans the past few years. None exist yet, although I think several are in trial for other viruses. I think mRNA has started to be used against cancers though.
I don’t know much. I’d prob want a doctor to chime in and explain why this type of vaccine is harmless, even if it doesn’t work, and why it won’t give me cancer in 10 years.
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While I agree it's hard to not bring up POTUS during this COVID crisis, we'll probably never agree about his handling of the situation. It's very easy with 20/20 hindsight to find fault with our preparation and initial response, but the killer was the testing kit failure at the CDC lab, almost certainly exacerbated by what still seems to be a lack of consensus among career US health officials on understanding the new virus. Fauci and Birx both acknowledged the latter.
However the Admin's response since, say mid-March, deserves a lot of credit whether you want to give it to the task force with or without Trump. The only country "stats" to consider grading against are the major western and more multi-cultural democracies--let's start with G-7s plus Mex, Brazil, etc. Considering that not even these somewhat comparable countries had the massive international travel numbers right at the worst possible time--the Nov/Dec holidays--the US death and fatality rates are very respectable, again comparably. Factor in that more than 40% of US deaths are in the LTC system managed at the state level, it really does look like politics are driving the withering criticism of Trump.
They call it an "unpleasant surprise", I think that's looking at it with a mind frame that the glass is half empty, but wouldn't this be good news finding out why children are more protected (glass half full)?
Thanks for the response, appreciate the info, thinking she should at the very least check with her MD, I’m sure she has, she is an RU grad
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