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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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they have similar deaths a day to NJ now. Only difference is they are far less densely populated, younger, healthier, and live alone, and their economy is in the tank and most people there are still distancing.
LOL.

Sweden’s economy shrank less than eurozone’s at height of pandemic

Gross domestic product in the second quarter fell 8.6 per cent compared with the previous three months, according to a flash estimate from Statistics Sweden published on Wednesday. But that was significantly better than the 12 per cent contraction experienced across the eurozone in the same period
. The hardest-hit major European economy was Spain, which logged an 18 per cent contraction; the German economy shrank by about a tenth.

Sweden has been at the centre of a fierce international debate about the merits of locking down as a means of tackling the spread of the virus. It refused to follow the rest of Europe into a formal shutdown, keeping its schools, restaurants and borders open while urging people to work from home and keep a distance from each other. After being one of the very few European countries to eke out positive growth in the first quarter, Sweden continued to be an outlier in April, May and June — the peak of the pandemic so far in Europe. According to flash estimates last week, only Latvia and Lithuania performed better with GDP declines in the second quarter of 7.5 per cent and 5.1 per cent respectively.

https://www.ft.com/content/fdb6fbe4-4997-4f35-ba41-06ac2d6fd824
 
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they have similar deaths a day to NJ now. Only difference is they are far less densely populated, younger, healthier, and live alone, and their economy is in the tank and most people there are still distancing.

They do have some large densely populated cities though. Their gyms and schools are open.
 
LOL.

Sweden’s economy shrank less than eurozone’s at height of pandemic

Gross domestic product in the second quarter fell 8.6 per cent compared with the previous three months, according to a flash estimate from Statistics Sweden published on Wednesday. But that was significantly better than the 12 per cent contraction experienced across the eurozone in the same period
. The hardest-hit major European economy was Spain, which logged an 18 per cent contraction; the German economy shrank by about a tenth.

Sweden has been at the centre of a fierce international debate about the merits of locking down as a means of tackling the spread of the virus. It refused to follow the rest of Europe into a formal shutdown, keeping its schools, restaurants and borders open while urging people to work from home and keep a distance from each other. After being one of the very few European countries to eke out positive growth in the first quarter, Sweden continued to be an outlier in April, May and June — the peak of the pandemic so far in Europe. According to flash estimates last week, only Latvia and Lithuania performed better with GDP declines in the second quarter of 7.5 per cent and 5.1 per cent respectively.

https://www.ft.com/content/fdb6fbe4-4997-4f35-ba41-06ac2d6fd824
So their economy sucked slightly less and they have one of the highest death rates in the world. Is that what you call winning?
 
So their economy sucked slightly less and they have one of the highest death rates in the world. Is that what you call winning?
You mean their economy declining about 40% less than the Eurozone is "slightly less" LOL. And I never said they were winning, but they have lower chicomvirus death rates and a much better economy than NJ, which has among the highest unemployment rates in the country at 16.6% vs Sweden at 10%, and was the comparison you were making in your previous post, "Greg".
 
You mean their economy declining about 40% less than Eurozone is "slightly less" LOL. And I never said they were winning, but they have lower chicomvirus death rates and much better economy than NJ, which has among the highest unemployment rates in the country at 16.6%, and was the comparison you were making in your previous post, "Greg".

We already went over this. Their economy performed similar to the neighboring countries. This conversation feels like Groundhog Day.
 
Why are there are almost no cases in Sweden and Denmark without masks
Can’t speak to it. What I do know for a fact is that when we tried this in NJ it didn’t even come close to working. I had perfectly healthy friends end up on ventilators and almost die. They are still feeling the effects of it months later. We had thousands of people die and hospitals were overrun. I read that Sweden was able to work from home and socially distant which would make masks irrelevant. Maybe their way of life and spread out they are is better than us. What I know for a fact is we tried it and it didn’t work.
 
We already went over this. Their economy performed similar to the neighboring countries. This conversation feels like Groundhog Day.
Not sure why "Greg" wanted to position Sweden as worse than NJ, which is what I was discussing with "Greg". If you can't keep up with a convo I'm having with another poster, why parachute in? Btw, I'm still waiting on your answer to my question about Sweden's per capita death rates for it's non-LTC population.
 
Not sure why "Greg" wanted to position Sweden as worse than NJ, which is what I was discussing with "Greg". If you can't keep up with a convo I'm having with another poster, why parachute in? Btw, I'm still waiting on your answer to my question about Sweden's per capita death rates for it's non-LTC population.

Keep up? Literally the same conversation was had last week (dementia?). It’s tiring and responding to anything you say is a waste of time tbh.
 
Keep up? Literally the same conversation was had last week (dementia?). It’s tiring and responding to anything you say is a waste of time tbh.
You guys were comparing NJ and Sweden last week? Show me how many times I chimed in.

And then get working on those Swedish chicomvirus death rates ex-LTC counts. Thanks.
 
and they have far more deaths per cpaita than here

I didn't comment on the article to say they were doing things right or wrong. I was simply astounded by the fact that new infections and deaths have practically stopped there. What is the reason for that? We don't know for sure, but the article offers an interesting theory.
 
Nothing wrong with it - I just wish people would make relevant comparisons and the most relevant comparison is Sweden to Norway/Finland (similar population densities/cultures) and Sweden has done far, far worse, so holding Sweden up as some success story seems quite inappropriate to me. The fact that Sweden has a similar per capita death rate as ~5-10X more densely populated countries, like Italy, UK, France, Spain, etc., is another sign of how badly they did.

I was the first person on this board to bring up the intriguing possibility of T-cell cross-reactivity from prior exposure to other coronaviruses conferring some or even significant immunity to people who had never been exposed to SARS-CoV-2, so yeah, I know a little about it. The problem is scientists simply don't know if this cross-reactivity provides immunity or not for small or large numbers of people and are unlikely to ever know, since assessment of COVID infections for people with and without such T-cells, in large numbers would be the only way to know and I don't think there's any way that can be done with extremely-difficult-to-measure T-cells (but it would be a great study to do).

Also, given Sweden's/Stockholm's much lower level of people with antibodies (~6%/10% respectively, as per below), reflecting past COVID infection, vs. areas like NY/NYCMetro (13.4%/21.6%, respectively, with the Bronx up to 32%), London, Northern Italy, etc., I'd say it's highly unlikely that, even if there is some 20-40% magic cap on those infected due to cross-reactivity, Sweden would still be quite far from that, as opposed to NYC. And the fact that both (with close to 10MM people each) have in the range of 200-400 cases per day on a 7-day moving average tells me that their interventions are working (distancing in Sweden and masks/distancing in NYC with a far higher density), but that the virus is nowhere near under control.

I'm praying for cross-reactivity to be real and to equate to some cap on how many can become infected, which could lead to herd immunity levels being much lower than currently thought (55-80% range), but in the absence of compelling data to that effect, I think our focus should be on: a) reducing transmissions, cases, hospitalizations and deaths by masking/distancing with testing/tracing/isolating to prevent small flare-ups from becoming major outbreaks and b) continuing our extraordinary scientific efforts to find working treatments/cures and on developing and distributing vaccines (also vaccines should improve everyone's immunity, even those with cross-reactive T-cells).

Excellent article today from the Washington Post, based on work from some leading epidemiologists (sent to me by none other than John Otterstedt this morning and @ArminRU later on). After graphically illustrating what herd immunity really means (the % of people who need to be infected in order to essentially stop new infections), they share the modeling work done by these Harvard/Yale scientists at their covidestim.org site, based on their paper from 6 weeks ago (3rd link).

Their modeling essentially assumes little to no "native immunity" from T-cell cross reactivity, since we simply don't know enough about it and probably because several communities in NYC, London, and Italy have reached 40-60% infected, which makes it harder to believe there's some magic cap on infections at 20-40%. Obviously, if there were, say a 30-40% cap, we'd be closer to herd immunity and less would die, but with the US at ~9% infected, even getting to 30% infected will still mean an awful lot of very sick people and hundreds of thousands of more deaths.

They then take the 60% midpoint of the range of herd immunity estimates of 40-80% (I've been seeing more like 55-80%, but these guys should know better) and through their model develop estimates for total infections (actual infected, not just positive cases) and from that they calculate cumulative infections or seroprevalence, which has also been measured by antibody testing populations, like has been done in NY/NYC and about a dozen other places in the US by the CDC. Interestingly, they have NJ with the highest rate, of 19.4% infected (no seroprevalence statewide testing in NJ), with NY at only 11.0% (vs. their seroprevalence testing, which showed 13.4% for NY, but 21.6% for NYC) and the US at 9.1%.

They then go through the same calculations I've been sharing for months, which is simple math: 330MM in the US x 60% infected at herd immunity = 198MM infected x the infection fatality ratio to get the total number of US deaths possible. Most experts have been saying we'll have an IFR of 0.5-1.0% (CDC says 0,65%), which would then translate to roughly 1-2MM US deaths, eventually, although these numbers don't take into account recent improvements in procedures/treatments that should lower the IFR from here on out. They also assume no interventions to slow transmissions and certainly no cure/vaccine, since they're simply trying to provide the baseline, credible worst case scenario, which is pretty bad and why we need to be doing a lot more to prevent transmissions/deaths, at least until we have a cure/vaccine.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/grap...6UheAdY30JWe_rmDn0FcsrD65gDA9Tgq_xFR3fLXFQrkg
https://covidestim.org/
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.17.20133983v1
 
Can’t speak to it. What I do know for a fact is that when we tried this in NJ it didn’t even come close to working. I had perfectly healthy friends end up on ventilators and almost die. They are still feeling the effects of it months later. We had thousands of people die and hospitals were overrun. I read that Sweden was able to work from home and socially distant which would make masks irrelevant. Maybe their way of life and spread out they are is better than us. What I know for a fact is we tried it and it didn’t work.


thank you for at least answering...which is more than you get from most here
 
Herd Immunity? A new model estimates the percentage could be lower, at around 20 percent, depending on human behavior.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/

“We just keep running the models, and it keeps coming back at less than 20 percent,” Gomes said. “It’s very striking.”

If that proves correct, it would be life-altering news. It wouldn’t mean that the virus is gone. But by Gomes’s estimates, if roughly one out of every five people in a given population is immune to the virus, that seems to be enough to slow its spread to a level where each infectious person is infecting an average of less than one other person. The number of infections would steadily decline. That’s the classic definition of herd immunity. It would mean, for instance, that at 25 percent antibody prevalence, New York City could continue its careful reopening without fear of another major surge in cases.

It doesn’t make intuitive sense, Gomes admits, but “the homogenous models just don’t make curves that match the current data,” she said. Dynamic systems develop in complex and unpredictable ways, and she believes that the best we can do is continually update models based on what is happening in the real world. She can’t say why the threshold in her models is consistently at or below 20 percent, but it is. “If heterogeneity isn’t the cause,” she said, “then I’d like for someone to explain what is.”



Persistent heterogeneity not short-term overdispersion determines herd immunity to COVID-19


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.26.20162420v1.full.pdf

Abstract:

It has become increasingly clear that the COVID-19 epidemic is characterized by overdispersion whereby the majority of the transmission is driven by a minority of infected individuals. Such a strong departure from the homogeneity assumptions of traditional well-mixed compartment model is usually hypothesized to be the result of shortterm super-spreader events, such as individual’s extreme rate of virus shedding at the peak of infectivity while attending a large gathering without appropriate mitigation. However, heterogeneity can also arise through long-term, or persistent variations in individual susceptibility or infectivity. Here, we show how to incorporate persistent heterogeneity into a wide class of epidemiological models, and derive a non-linear dependence of the effective reproduction number Re on the susceptible population fraction S. Persistent heterogeneity has three important consequences compared to the effects of overdispersion: (1) It results in a major modification of the early epidemic dynamics; (2) It significantly suppresses the herd immunity threshold; (3) It significantly reduces the final size of the epidemic. We estimate social and biological contributions to persistent heterogeneity using data on real-life face-to-face contact networks and age variation of the incidence rate during the COVID-19 epidemic, and show that empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic in New York City (NYC) and Chicago and all 50 US states provide a consistent characterization of the level of persistent heterogeneity. Our estimates suggest that the hardest-hit areas, such as NYC, are close to the persistent heterogeneity herd immunity threshold following the first wave of the epidemic, thereby limiting the spread of infection to other regions during a potential second wave of the epidemic. Our work implies that general considerations of persistent heterogeneity in addition to overdispersion act to limit the scale of pandemics.
 
Even though cases are remaining at 300 to 400 per day, Covid deaths ( day of, not classifications from past) in NJ last few weeks averaging one to two per day. Huge drop off in this number. Why is this? Better treatment, severity of Covid down, more testing?
Most of the high risk have already died. Tigers and other predators don't chase the strong. They go after the weak. Most of the weak are now gone. Virus hasn't made much progress on the strong.
 
You mean their economy declining about 40% less than the Eurozone is "slightly less" LOL. And I never said they were winning, but they have lower chicomvirus death rates and a much better economy than NJ, which has among the highest unemployment rates in the country at 16.6% vs Sweden at 10%, and was the comparison you were making in your previous post, "Greg".
Nice comparing an extremely dense travel hub next to one of the most international cities in the world next to a country not traveled to by many, and is not dense at all. This is why we laugh at your posts.
 
How would you know? Can't prove a negative.

Your contribution to this thread has been nothing short of uncontrollable verbal diarrhea.
Says the guy (and those who liked it) have provided more false information than anything or anyone I’ve ever seen. Stay controlled. Stay scared. Those with knowledge and means certainly aren’t.


How’s HCQ again? #Waffled
 
They have 570 deaths/M compared to our 498/M which is not "far more." Factor in that they have had 62 deaths over the last 21 days versus our 21,000 and in a few weeks we will race on right by them.
We still need another 24,840 deaths to pull even with them. Or an other 17 percent increase compared to what we have now. I would say that's "far more" especially when you compare the US's density, age, and multi generational living as compared to that of Sweden. And the USA's horrible response, and we still only have 83 percent per capita of their deaths, despite them having the advantage over us in so many ways.
 
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Says the guy (and those who liked it) have provided more false information than anything or anyone I’ve ever seen. Stay controlled. Stay scared. Those with knowledge and means certainly aren’t.


How’s HCQ again? #Waffled
I've never said anything about HCQ. Go on, keep reaching further into your ass and let the diarrhea flow.
 
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Herd Immunity? A new model estimates the percentage could be lower, at around 20 percent, depending on human behavior.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/

“We just keep running the models, and it keeps coming back at less than 20 percent,” Gomes said. “It’s very striking.”

If that proves correct, it would be life-altering news. It wouldn’t mean that the virus is gone. But by Gomes’s estimates, if roughly one out of every five people in a given population is immune to the virus, that seems to be enough to slow its spread to a level where each infectious person is infecting an average of less than one other person. The number of infections would steadily decline. That’s the classic definition of herd immunity. It would mean, for instance, that at 25 percent antibody prevalence, New York City could continue its careful reopening without fear of another major surge in cases.

It doesn’t make intuitive sense, Gomes admits, but “the homogenous models just don’t make curves that match the current data,” she said. Dynamic systems develop in complex and unpredictable ways, and she believes that the best we can do is continually update models based on what is happening in the real world. She can’t say why the threshold in her models is consistently at or below 20 percent, but it is. “If heterogeneity isn’t the cause,” she said, “then I’d like for someone to explain what is.”



Persistent heterogeneity not short-term overdispersion determines herd immunity to COVID-19


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.26.20162420v1.full.pdf

Abstract:

It has become increasingly clear that the COVID-19 epidemic is characterized by overdispersion whereby the majority of the transmission is driven by a minority of infected individuals. Such a strong departure from the homogeneity assumptions of traditional well-mixed compartment model is usually hypothesized to be the result of shortterm super-spreader events, such as individual’s extreme rate of virus shedding at the peak of infectivity while attending a large gathering without appropriate mitigation. However, heterogeneity can also arise through long-term, or persistent variations in individual susceptibility or infectivity. Here, we show how to incorporate persistent heterogeneity into a wide class of epidemiological models, and derive a non-linear dependence of the effective reproduction number Re on the susceptible population fraction S. Persistent heterogeneity has three important consequences compared to the effects of overdispersion: (1) It results in a major modification of the early epidemic dynamics; (2) It significantly suppresses the herd immunity threshold; (3) It significantly reduces the final size of the epidemic. We estimate social and biological contributions to persistent heterogeneity using data on real-life face-to-face contact networks and age variation of the incidence rate during the COVID-19 epidemic, and show that empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic in New York City (NYC) and Chicago and all 50 US states provide a consistent characterization of the level of persistent heterogeneity. Our estimates suggest that the hardest-hit areas, such as NYC, are close to the persistent heterogeneity herd immunity threshold following the first wave of the epidemic, thereby limiting the spread of infection to other regions during a potential second wave of the epidemic. Our work implies that general considerations of persistent heterogeneity in addition to overdispersion act to limit the scale of pandemics.

Good post. This is all fascinating stuff, as we've discussed a couple of times. The differences in the epidemiological models and the concommitant differences in the real outcomes with regard to how many will likely be infected and die are, unfortunately, huge and yet we have to make decisions on specific interventions to take, from masking/distancing to what businesses/activities (including bars, restaurants, schools, colleges, sporting/entertainment events, etc.) to what populations to try to protect, etc.

Just look at the differences between the Harvard/Yale ~60% herd immunity model (which most epidemiologists favor) I posted about earlier today and the heterogeneity-driven ~20% herd immunity models of Gomes and others. Her latest paper on this is linked below, although I have to say she doesn't mention chaos once, so maybe the interviewer overdid that angle (having studied chaos theory a bit, I don't see that being applied like it is in numerical modeling of weather or chemical reactors). I tend to think the heteorgeneity logic makes more sense, but I have trouble with how that allows fairly heterogeneous sub-populations in places like NYC (parts of the Bronx/Queens), London and Italy reach 40-60% infected - I've yet to see those folks explain that well - maybe it's 40%?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1.full.pdf

The heterogeneity in inherent immunity, source dose emitted by an infected person, and exposure dose received by an uninfected person, all certainly make sense, since not all encounters are identical and not all people are identical. I think this concept simply provides a more physically relevant model than Friston's "dark matter" explanation for much lower potential herd immunity, although it looks like the math/outcomes are fairly similar. And the concept of cross-reactivity, if shown to truly result in some/all immunity for some modest to large % of humans, at least gives a potential biological underpinning to the immunity variability (which is probably the biggest wild card in all this).

And guessing wrong has such huge consequences: assuming herd immunity at only 20-25% infected and completely reopening and having huge new outbreaks is certainly bad for public health, but so is going back into lockdowns or maintaining far stricter controls than might really be needed, especially with regard to economic/social impacts. It's why I've favored the McKinsey approach for months now: commit to the relatively simple interventions, like masks/distancing, with testing/tracing/isolating, while reopening in phases to establish confidence in the approach, instead of doing it haphazardly, which leads to high uncertainty and fear and more economic impact as people then avoid interactions.

It's also why I like the stepwise, metrics-driven approach adopted by most of the NE US states, which is similar to what McKinsey has advocated. It should allow us to truly see the impacts of each step of reopening and potentially dial back if the results are bad or continue if the results are good - I also like how NY is doing it, regionally, allowing different regions to move at different paces depending on the metrics and outcomes - that even gives the opportunity to "test" the reopening procedures on small subsets without committing to the same procedures for all. I wish I could get some of these folks in room to see if they can talk to each other and possibly come to some consensus, but I doubt that would happen, lol.
 
thank you for at least answering...which is more than you get from most here
Just to be fair as you are asking everyone to question things here it would only be fair then to also question things in Sweden and question their information. Again what I know for a fact is for just a few weeks we tried to keep things “normal” in NJ and the results were horrendous. Can’t be done again.
 
Just to be fair as you are asking everyone to question things here it would only be fair then to also question things in Sweden and question their information. Again what I know for a fact is for just a few weeks we tried to keep things “normal” in NJ and the results were horrendous. Can’t be done again.

What was that? If you think large parties arent going on all over NJ you are mistaken. Whether they should be is another question.

Still havent opened gyms in NJ while they are open in other states. There doesn't cseem to be stories of widespread gym outbreaks since mssks are required. Whats the issue here. The inconsistencies are maddening...no masks at beach but masks required at outdoor Meadowlands racetrack

This is going to go on for over a year..do you think restaurants will survive being shut down..yes or no...i still find it mind boggling that people think a vaccine will end all this. We have King Fauci himself saying otherwise
 
What was that? If you think large parties arent going on all over NJ you are mistaken. Whether they should be is another question.

Still havent opened gyms in NJ while they are open in other states. There doesn't cseem to be stories of widespread gym outbreaks since mssks are required. Whats the issue here. The inconsistencies are maddening...no masks at beach but masks required at outdoor Meadowlands racetrack

This is going to go on for over a year..do you think restaurants will survive being shut down..yes or no...i still find it mind boggling that people think a vaccine will end all this. We have King Fauci himself saying otherwise
I believe many sit down restaurants and gyms don’t survive even if we opened immediately. Too many people will not go with the virus not contained
 
Just to be fair as you are asking everyone to question things here it would only be fair then to also question things in Sweden and question their information. Again what I know for a fact is for just a few weeks we tried to keep things “normal” in NJ and the results were horrendous. Can’t be done again.
Well I wonder if what is going on in Sweden, where they had a big spike, but have since brought it down to near zero, is an example that we can be more aggressive in our opening.

Now I think people point to Sweden as a great success story despite one of the highest death rates in the world, and also act like they are currently living right now as they were pre covid, which I don't think is accurate at all. Their restaurants are open, but at limited occupancy and I know they shut down their professional sports early on in the pandemic, and I haven't seen anything yet about them reopening those sports(if any has info here it would be appreciated) to start this season. So I'd also assume other mass gathering are also off the table. Also remember they have some sort of travel restrictions in place.

But they are more open then us and their #'s are currently great so I'd certainly like to know what is going on there.
 
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Most of the high risk have already died. Tigers and other predators don't chase the strong. They go after the weak. Most of the weak are now gone. Virus hasn't made much progress on the strong.
Most of the high risk in NJ have already died? I still see a lot of old folk roaming around.
 
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Well I wonder if what is going on in Sweden, where they had a big spike, but have since brought it down to near zero, is an example that we can be more aggressive in our opening.

Now I think people point to Sweden as a great success story despite one of the highest death rates in the world, and also act like they are currently living right now as they were pre covid, which I don't think is accurate at all. Their restaurants are open, but at limited occupancy and I know they shut down their professional sports early on in the pandemic, and I haven't seen anything yet about them reopening those sports(if any has info here it would be appreciated) to start this season. So I'd also assume other mass gathering are also off the table. Also remember they have some sort of travel restrictions in place.

But they are more open then us and their #'s are currently great so I'd certainly like to know what is going on there.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...aming-the-coronavirus-s-potential-second-wave

They're not living quite the same as pre covid.
 
Can’t speak to it. What I do know for a fact is that when we tried this in NJ it didn’t even come close to working. I had perfectly healthy friends end up on ventilators and almost die. They are still feeling the effects of it months later. We had thousands of people die and hospitals were overrun. I read that Sweden was able to work from home and socially distant which would make masks irrelevant. Maybe their way of life and spread out they are is better than us. What I know for a fact is we tried it and it didn’t work.
And more recently states like Florida, AZ, Texas and California have, even with restrictions still in place, been hit pretty hard by this.
 
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A former ny times reporter who has been asking questions and delivering data

Perspective is important eh?

Sure is.

And when you see the reddest of red states reversing course on reopening that's an interesting point of perspective as well.[/QUOTE]
 
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