COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter Richie O
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Not true - states that allow in -door dining are seeing people will go.
Suuuure. And neither do those who liked your post. Internet doctors the lot of ya. Makes for comical reading though. The fervor and confidence in being so wrong has been amusing to say the least in this whole thing.
Mask up doctor!
Heterogeneity (see previous linked articles) combined with Gompertz decay... Countries intial transmission rate and decay rate directly related to measures taken.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.02475.pdf
To what extent I don't think we really know.
But I think it is fair to say that allowing indoor dining, even if limited, helps. Maybe it saves 50% of restaurants that would otherwise go out. Not great, but certainly better.
So should they just go full open? Large gatherings, no limitations on indoor bars and dining? No social distancing limitations? No travel restrictions?
Research shows the opposite. Quick stringent response to slow initial spread (stop super spread behavior) and continued measures (SD, masks, etc) to increase Gompertz decay rate. With that behavior you end up with herd immunity like results at around 20-25%. The initial spread seems to be greatly related to super spread type activities. Avoiding them lowers initial rate and raises decay rate. Unfortunately, we did a poor job of both at the beginning and in the states that reopened with indoor activities and not enough restrictions.
I am interested in impact beyond death. I am seeing anecdotal stories about significant health consequences even for survivors
Have there been any studies or is it too soon
People will go but I bet gross revenue is down
Are you claiming business is equal to before covid?
Would you not be in favor of an increase in spread while hospitals have significant capacity, in order to quicken the timeline?
I know mass gathering would be a dangerous proposition, but how bout sports at 50% capacity, or just let bars and restaurants run without limitations for awhile, see where the #'s are and then adjust accordingly? Granted the public will limit themselves to some extent, but perhaps even more reason to just let it run.
I'd also think maybe opening the dams while still in August would give them or us time to recover so as to clamp down a bit in fall and winter if the virus rebounds.
Is Spain having a second wave? No according to the data. They are experiencing what we had with growth in regions not hit in the first wave:
I think we should start relaxing restrictions but in a way to avoid super spreading events. The virus seems to greatly restricted by avoiding certain behaviors (large indoor gatherings with no restrictions being #1 on the list). At risk folks will have to decide their personal risk tolerance for indoor dining etc. I think opening indoor bars and restaurants without any restrictions would be foolish. Start with limited capacity and proper spacing, etc. I wish I had more data on outdoor sporting events because my gut says opening it up fully could be a huge mistake even though outdoors.
The biggest problem with outdoor sporting events wouldn't be with those sitting and watching the games with masks and open seats between the fans, it would be the restrooms which could become a breeding ground for the virus.
Exactly - great article comparing Sweden and Italy's path to current very low levels of infection. This is consistent with what many of us have said, i.e., that the Swedes are not simply living life "normally" (as per the excerpt below) and that distancing can be effective all by itself if done very well and culturally, that's likely much easier for Swedes vs., say, the Italians or French, as the Swedes don't have a culture of greeting by "kissing" whereas the others do. However, where people can't (mass transit) or won't (culturally) practice distancing, especially indoors, then masks are a must.
And while I think herd immunity might be lower than 60%, due to heterogeneity/cross-reactivity, it's certainly not at 6-7% (recent antibody levels in Sweden), so Sweden's current low rates are almost certainly not due to having reached anything even close to herd immunity.
But that would miss the point. Swedes haven’t benefited from simply “letting the virus rip” — their immunity levels are still low, antibody tests indicate — and they aren’t being told to throw caution to the wind. Behavioral changes have taken place: The flow of human traffic is still not back to normal in many areas, according to Google mobility data, and officials have regularly warned people that failure to respect social distancing would lead to tougher rules. Some rules have been tightened, from a ban on visits to elderly care homes to the shutdown of restaurants in Stockholm that weren’t following guidelines. Social distancing is paying off.
This isn’t a model that can be easily reproduced elsewhere. Swedes are young, their country is sparsely populated, and a high proportion already live relatively isolated lives by working from home in single-occupancy households. But the secret here might be consistency.
There have been several examples (link and previous post below) of likely viral spread at soccer matches in Europe just before the lockdowns went into effect in countries like Italy, Spain, the UK, France, and Germany. I think reopening outdoor sporting events without major controls (maybe 10-20% attendance with masks absolutely required) would be nuts. It's why the Euro leagues are having no fans.
https://ir.library.louisville.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1108&context=jri
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...000-fans-nascar-all-star.199225/#post-4635792
Generally agree with the rest of your post and would add that the huge question mark right now are schools. I think they can reopen very carefully with lots of restrictions, i.e., masking/distancing, but I can see that being difficult to enforce well, so testing/tracing will have to be readily available - the Israeli school outbreak truly showed the importance of masks, as per the link'/post below. I also don't think schools should reopen in areas with high case rates, given the high likelihood infected children will infect staff and family members.
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.29.2001352
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ventions-and-more.198855/page-62#post-4641773
New Zealand: Currently at 0 COVID.
New Zealand got rid of the virus by imposing a strict lockdown in late March when only about 100 people had tested positive for the disease. That stopped its spread. For the past three months, the only new cases have been a handful of returning travelers who have been quarantined at the border.
"It was good science and great political leadership that made the difference," said professor Michael Baker, an epidemiologist at the University of Otago. "If you look around the globe at countries that have done well, it's usually that combination."
https://abc7news.com/new-zealand-coronavirus-covid-19-no-cases/6362502/
New Zealand got rid of the virus by imposing a strict lockdown in late March when only about 100 people had tested positive for the disease. That stopped its spread. For the past three months, the only new cases have been a handful of returning travelers who have been quarantined at the border.
"It was good science and great political leadership that made the difference," said professor Michael Baker, an epidemiologist at the University of Otago. "If you look around the globe at countries that have done well, it's usually that combination."
https://abc7news.com/new-zealand-coronavirus-covid-19-no-cases/6362502/
New Zealand has 1/60th of the population and everyone speaks English. You had swaths of areas of this far more diverse and vast country who barely knew Covid was a thing and certainly weren’t adhering to recommended “lockdowns”. See Hazelton Pa. for starters. Freedom. It comes with such things.
A better comparison would be Sweden. Or Rhode Island.
Find me one post where I talked about hcq. Oh wait, you're too lazy to look up anything. Keep churning out those Koch talking points and lies. Hope they pay you by the post.
The same people were saying nobody would eat outside, or go to camps, Go to the beach or play youth sports etc etc.
What happen with our university's saliva test? This is just crazy, why are we dragging our feet on stuff that shouldn't be too difficult to get going.
Agreed 100% and what we were discussing. We think it was a stomach bug but obviously you can't be too careful now. Meanwhile we're not going to leave the house for 2-3 weeks now just in case. She's totally ok now.
It’s crazy to say no one or everyone. The issue is will there be a reduction in customers and if so does it get up to a tipping point that makes a business unprofitable
To me businesses that might have trouble are
In door restaurants with low take out revenue
Movie theaters
Broadway
Cruise lines
Private busing
Gyms
I am sure there are others
Was thinking the same, restrooms and concourses, even for a stadium at 25% capacity will have moments of jam packedness.
Yesterday the US had 54K new cases and 976 new deaths.
The whole of Europe had 14.5K new cases and 330 deaths. Take Russia out of the mix and it's 9K and 200.
But I'm confused is this guy saying that Covid is something we need to worry about or not?
I know of a few cross training gyms that have been outdoors opened for a month or more.
Yes, majority of people would support in- door dining. Hospitalizations below 500 today, first time since tracking. Time to move to next opening phase.
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