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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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Here in Boone NC, this has been "moving in" week for App State kids. Enrollment is approx 20k students. It's a small town, so when school is in session, the population more than doubles. Anyway, while some kids are wearing masks, there's no "social distancing" at all. Have to think in a couple weeks, the COVID situation here will be troubling. Reports out of Chapel Hill at UNC have revealed the same behaviors. Not good.
 
Here in Boone NC, this has been "moving in" week for App State kids. Enrollment is approx 20k students. It's a small town, so when school is in session, the population more than doubles. Anyway, while some kids are wearing masks, there's no "social distancing" at all. Have to think in a couple weeks, the COVID situation here will be troubling. Reports out of Chapel Hill at UNC have revealed the same behaviors. Not good.
kids are going to be kids. some adults don't want to do the adulting, so here we are.
 
On Worldmeters it says, "England has removed 5,377 deaths from its time series." on the 8/12 notes, so it went from about 46.6K to 41.3K - that's one way to reduce the death toll. I don't quite see why someone being on a ventilator for 30 days and then dying wouldn't still be counted as a COVID death. Maybe I'm missing something. I also wouldn't have thought there would be 5377 of those deaths, unless that number includes others removed.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
super sketchy for sure. They were also already undercounting according to their ONS which had around 10,000 more deaths registered than the NHS did. Apparently the ONS included far more deaths that occurred in care homes and at home which NHS had neglected to tabulate.
 
Back when the paper came out, I posted that I thought the authors were overstating the meaning of their data. I still think that is true. Now Crotty and Sette are acting surprised that people not in the field (or at least people who don't have many years experience doing this type of work) are "misrepresenting" what they showed in the paper. As I said back then, the data will stand the test of time; the conclusions will change. Conclusions are written in a section called "Discussion" - the name of the section should be a strong hint that what is put in there is not definitive; it is fact combined with educated opinions. In fact, the discussion, sometimes, might be entirely rewritten after the review process.

Now to rant a bit - scientific journals (especially Cell and Nature, but also many others) are now for-profit businesses (this changed about 20 years ago when Ben Lewin sold Cell Press).

As a result, IMO, journals represent a major weak link in the scientific process. Scientists have to package their data in a way that will help generate sales for the journals. Flashy titles, controversial topics and overstated conclusions are one of the simplest ways to catch the attention of the general press and the public. Same old story - more clicks equals more cash. The consequence is that these journals sometimes publish some really lousy stuff. Or, in this case, excellent data, but the meaning of the data was overstated in the discussion.

A new crop of scientists has shown up since I have been in the business (30+ years now). It always was that we lived in fear that we would publish something that ultimately proved to be wrong; now there are too many who fear not publishing far more than being wrong.

Just to be clear, Crotty and Sette are great scientists with high integrity; the overstating of their data IMO was largely a consequence of the journals being a business.

Thanks, very interesting perspective. In the chemical eng'g field, I haven't really noticed that change in mindset in publishing peer-reviewed articles. Every one I've been involved in has always had that fear of something being proven wrong, i.e., "holy crap, we better make 110% sure everything is unassailable." Perhaps that's going on elsewhere in the field and I haven't noticed or maybe the pressure isn't as great, since engineers don't typically publish as much as folks in the basic sciences (even those in academia). But I have certainly noticed a lot of junk in some COVID papers that have been published in some journals, so clearly it's become kind of the wild west out there.

With regard to their specific paper, I thought they tried to couch their "conclusions" with enough uncertainty/caveats, but I'm probably too trusting, lol, and didn't anticipate how the data might be used (or misused).
 
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Its called fn perspective
No, it's called Logan's Run. I'm sure there are economists in the Administration who have crunched the numbers and they know that older people dying will greatly reduce health care costs, while freeing up >$100 billion, which has a far greater chance of being spent by younger heirs. Not caring about deaths is very sad.
 
No, it's called Logan's Run. I'm sure there are economists in the Administration who have crunched the numbers and they know that older people dying will greatly reduce health care costs, while freeing up >$100 billion, which has a far greater chance of being spent by younger heirs. Not caring about deaths is very sad.

Cheering for deaths is worse.

Hopefully you are consistent and point that out the next time someone on the left here does that.
 
Could this bit of good news be the beginning of the conquest of covid-19?

https://www.jpost.com/health-scienc...passive-vaccine-recover-leave-hospital-638431

Yes, it's just three people. But it's good to read positive news.
Good to see...this is very similar to convalescent plasma, as it's taking the plasma and concentrating on the active immunoglobulin fraction (which should be "better" than regular plasma, as it's less variable); interesting that it's being branded as a "passive vaccine." Detailed discussion of CP is in the post below, but the bottom line is it looks like mortality reductions of >50% are being seen and over 1500 patients/day are now being treated with CP (and over 80,000 total, so far). I'm nearly certain this is a major part of the reason why death rates per hospitalization have decreased significantly in this wave (by ~50% vs. the first wave, i.e., both waves peaked at similar hospitalization levels, nationally, while death rates are about half of what they were). More on the various plasma/antibody approaches in the article below.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.198855/page-108#post-4658254

https://www.prescriberight.com/covid19antibodies.html
 
No, it's called Logan's Run. I'm sure there are economists in the Administration who have crunched the numbers and they know that older people dying will greatly reduce health care costs, while freeing up >$100 billion, which has a far greater chance of being spent by younger heirs. Not caring about deaths is very sad.
It is very sad and yet it has been haphazardly handled by all in the realm of politics as the blame game has become too easy... I know this in my heart of hearts... had the age been say 45 and under numbers ...you , I and everyone having kids and grandkids would sacrifice to see they were protected... since the beginning MSM and science has leaned towards ...” well they’re at a vulnerable age” and time is short to begin with...Am I being harsh on that less threatened group... yeah I am.
 
Back when the paper came out, I posted that I thought the authors were overstating the meaning of their data. I still think that is true. Now Crotty and Sette are acting surprised that people not in the field (or at least people who don't have many years experience doing this type of work) are "misrepresenting" what they showed in the paper. As I said back then, the data will stand the test of time; the conclusions will change. Conclusions are written in a section called "Discussion" - the name of the section should be a strong hint that what is put in there is not definitive; it is fact combined with educated opinions. In fact, the discussion, sometimes, might be entirely rewritten after the review process.

Now to rant a bit - scientific journals (especially Cell and Nature, but also many others) are now for-profit businesses (this changed about 20 years ago when Ben Lewin sold Cell Press).

As a result, IMO, journals represent a major weak link in the scientific process. Scientists have to package their data in a way that will help generate sales for the journals. Flashy titles, controversial topics and overstated conclusions are one of the simplest ways to catch the attention of the general press and the public. Same old story - more clicks equals more cash. The consequence is that these journals sometimes publish some really lousy stuff. Or, in this case, excellent data, but the meaning of the data was overstated in the discussion.

A new crop of scientists has shown up since I have been in the business (30+ years now). It always was that we lived in fear that we would publish something that ultimately proved to be wrong; now there are too many who fear not publishing far more than being wrong.

Just to be clear, Crotty and Sette are great scientists with high integrity; the overstating of their data IMO was largely a consequence of the journals being a business.

@UMRU, Thank you for this post. I "grew up" thinking of Nature, Science, Cell, and other such journals in my own field, as gold standard publications and had not realized the "businessification"/bottom-line orientation of such sources. Or even more importantly, the impact of these changes!

I also particularly appreciate your nuanced criticism - highlighting the impact of the business angle while not directly deprecating the authors themselves. This thread is most often the very opposite of nuanced so that was a personal delight for me to see.
 
House Arrest, all for the "greater good" of the State.

While you're bolted in, read the book 1984

Bolted in? I dont know about you, but my family and I are going about our summer in a relatively normal fashion..other than not spending 5-10k on a vacation (cha-ching!!), it's all good and we are enjoying most things we normally do at this time.

The new cutoff for people who don’t matter is 50 now?

It shouldn't be. I can still run circles around many of the younger bucks.

Keep hearing “ government” should have all the time . Yet the past 5-6 administrations are all guilty and negligent in this regard. I maintain that unless one is a proponent of an authoritarian regime we better be well aware of what is transpiring . The quote “grass always looks greener “ ( and not the medicinal grass) is over used but in this instance it is worthy of a look. Do we believe all will be treated equally or will we see the same things as we do in many of those “ admired “ totalitarian regimes. Realize those who are in power will never provide what many think is can in their ideal society. But we will see...

Should have in hindsight is one thing. Watching the wave coming and knowing what was very, most likely going to happen..while doing very little is another.

Yes I do thank you. I just turned 51 two weeks ago :)

Happy birthday fellow Leo. We are the same age, but you appear to be my senior by a few rotations of the earth.

Now that god Fauci has said kids should be in school, why aren’t they exactly?

They are...check the south. In particular look at Georgia and the clusters of Covid cases popping up in schools...up here in the north, school time hasn't begun yet and quite frankly, we know better.
 
Bolted in? I dont know about you, but my family and I are going about our summer in a relatively normal fashion..other than not spending 5-10k on a vacation (cha-ching!!), it's all good and we are enjoying most things we normally do at this time.



It shouldn't be. I can still run circles around many of the younger bucks.



Should have in hindsight is one thing. Watching the wave coming and knowing what was very, most likely going to happen..while doing very little is another.



Happy birthday fellow Leo. We are the same age, but you appear to be my senior by a few rotations of the earth.



They are...check the south. In particular look at Georgia and the clusters of Covid cases popping up in schools...up here in the north, school time hasn't begun yet and quite frankly, we know better.
Watching the wave is not the same no matter how we wish to blame the current administration. According to many on here the previous administration knew or had been warned ; still there appears to be a lack of actually what was known or was relayed ahead. All I will say and that will be it on preparedness they all failed and at all levels. Instead of the people’s well being we allowed political hate to form personal agendas against each other based on ideologies. As for seeing the wave and not doing anything is factually untrue ... we allowed both political cults to undermine us as a people and that will never heal going forward no matter who wins come November. Just be aware that what we allow to happen is on every American .I guess it will depend upon how much people value our system versus another doomed for failure and it will.Stay safe Rutgers.
 
DC to Boston is about the same as South Korea - no excuse for not being able to do what SK did with developing/deploying tests, despite all your silly posts to the contrary. We utterly failed having testing available anywhere, which is independent of the size of the US.

With regard to having "data" on symptomatic people presenting at doctor's offices and hospitals, I've already posted about that via the ILI (influenza like illnesses) reports, which were way up in our area starting in the beginning of March (first link), plus there have been numerous studies estimating the NYC had >10,000 cases by the end of February (and NENJ probably had a similar amount and some estimates are much greater), and finally, as per the 2nd link, a paper was just published showing that COVID was growing unknown to anyone in Jan/Feb in Seattle (based on COVID testing of retained "flu" samples that were negative for flu), so it's also quite likely the same was going on in this area.

So certainly by late February, there were many symptomatic cases walking around, but no tests for any of them before early March and still <1000 tests/day by mid-March. It seems nearly certain that if we had tests available by late February, we'd have been finding cases by then and probably would've easily had a few hundred cases by early March, if only we had had testing capability in place.

https://www.healio.com/news/infecti...new-york-were-preceded-by-uptick-in-flu-cases
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2589-5370(20)30223-6
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/us/coronavirus-early-outbreaks-cities.html

With regard to shutting things down, the biggest reason California likely started with earlier shutdowns is they had more cases and deaths through early March and into mid-March vs. New York. As of 3/4, CA had 53 cases and 1 death, while NY had 3 cases and zero deaths and it wasn't until 3/12 that NY had more cases than CA (328 to 237), but at that point CA had 4 deaths, while NY had none. NY finally passed CA in deaths on 3/15. So, it's not a surprise that CA closed schools on 3/13, while NY did that a few days later on 3/16, when bars/restaurants were also shut down.

Yes, CA's "formal" shutdown order came on 3/17 vs. 3/22 for NY (due to bickering between BDB and Cuomo, which was unfortunate and the formal shutdown shouldn't have taken that long), but both states were effectively closed up by around 3/16, by which time NY's cases had ballooned very quickly to ~3X those in CA (1374 to 392), as NY (and NJ) was unknowingly in the midst of an incredible exponential growth phase unlike any seen during this pandemic - just a week later, on 3/23, NY had over 25K cases, while CA had just 1700 (15X). I believe that if NY (and NJ) had SK's 10,000 test/day capability by late February, we would've seen the 3/16-style case numbers by early March and potentially might have shut down 2 weeks earlier or at least 1 week earlier, saving perhaps ~50% (1 week earlier) to ~80% (2 weeks earlier) of the lives lost.

https://abc7news.com/feature/health...-to-becoming-a-new-york-level-crisis/6108354/

Not sure what your point is about Fauci - it's all in the article. Everyone in the field knew there was the potential for asymptomatic transmission going on by early February, based on the study cited, but it took a few more weeks to get a robust set of data showing that was likely going on (including data from the Diamond Princess and elsewhere). Also, while I think Fauci and our political leaders (federal and state) should've sounded stronger alarms, it's also unrealistic to think Fauci should've been screaming to shut down the country with <75 cases and zero deaths on 3/1? Hmmmm, maybe if we had had robust testing in place and seen hundreds of cases by 3/1, perhaps things would've played out differently.
LMAO. So to you SK's population using masks extensively after being included in the WHO's early regional pandemic declaration--and btw with its experts recommending HCQ since the initial outbreak --along with all the other significant demographic, geographic, government structural and other differences between the U.S. are "silly". Here's another interesting factoid I found that clearly had SK ready for this pandemic: The country could act so effectively due to a piece of rare good luck. Buttressing prior experience with SARS and MERS, the KCDC – by coincidence – conducted a table-top exercise on a coronavirus outbreak in December 2019.
https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-are-koreas-covid-19-death-rates-so-low/

I guess there is no way that you will logically change your mind so we'll just have to let your feelings be what they are: hopelessly ridiculous. Imagine if Trump sent these guys into the Brownsville and Bed–Stuy sections of Brooklyn to force residents out for isolation and enforce other top-down government mandates. Hmmmm.
Sodier-in-Noddy-Suit-in-Daegu-e1583758693991.jpg



Let's see, what else did you miss in your latest opinionated post....

Well, San Fran shut things down early because they followed their scientific models, NYC did not. ***I'm not clear on how that ILI data for NYC would be interpreted---it was down significantly in Feb and then spiked in Mar--would some health officials perhaps interpret that as a delayed common flu season? Fauci's mystery call to a Chicom scientist friend still lacks any curious follow-up...but the biggest takeaway from the article was the confirmation that Chicom's cover-up of their asymptomatic spread data hurt our response and led to many unnecessary US deaths and suffering.

***edit: we need more detail on those rollercoaster Feb/Mar ILI stats in NYC--iirc @ashokan had noted numerous NY health reporting shenanigans about that time period on the old CE
 
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Some details from one of the Chinese inactivated virus vaccine candidates, Sinopharm. Not enough details, but was safe and got “similar” response as the other vaccines so far. They don’t give too many details so it’s kinda shady. It also might require 3 total shots if I’m reading it correct, which would not be great. They already are 5k patients deep in their Phase 3 trial.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/sinopharm-shares-phase-2-data-inactivated-covid-19-vaccine
 
House Arrest, all for the "greater good" of the State.

While you're bolted in, read the book 1984

I know this was a throwaway troll, but it so perfectly illustrates everything wrong with the one-dimensional thinking we've seen, it's worth picking out.

Under strong leadership, NZ shut down hard, actually made sacrifices for the greater good of society and was able to move on, fully move on - society fully open, sports not only happening but having fans in the stadium, etc. How can you even argue against that? They didn't do that for "the state" - they did it for themselves, unselfishly and collectively.

Meanwhile, thanks to people fighting that type of collective action here - like you're pretending to, presumably for no other reason than the faint hope Trump might like you one day - we'll forget what going back to normal even looks like before we ever get there. And for what? It's not like those flouting the rules are having the time of their lives - everything is still shut down and shitty, but now it's guaranteed to stay that way in some form, indefinitely.

Go ahead and make up excuses of how it could never work here. Perhaps not to the extent it did there, but zero doubt we'd be in a better place with strong leadership and a more collective view of the greater good. We'll just never get to prove that because we're a society filled with raging, self-shitheads each of whom thinks he knows more than everyone else about everything.

And let me save you from rolling out the exhausted, lifeless excuse that's 1000 percent on its way ...yes, go ahead and apply all that to all the protesters and rioters, too. They're just as selfish of assholes as the idiots that think masks invade their second amendment rights.
 
This article was thought provoking and offers a totally different way out of the pandemic short term. The idea mentioned in the headline is not as crazy as you might think after reading the article. For those who find everything political, this was a pretty refreshingly non political article for the most part, from the Atlantic:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...every-american-for-covid-19-every-day/615217/
 
This article was thought provoking and offers a totally different way out of the pandemic short term. The idea mentioned in the headline is not as crazy as you might think after reading the article. For those who find everything political, this was a pretty refreshingly non political article for the most part, from the Atlantic:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...every-american-for-covid-19-every-day/615217/

Wow! Interesting for sure. I quite liked the pregnancy test analogy. Thank you for sharing.

Technological risks aside (temporarily), this is the type of investment we could so easily be making once the tech is vetted by apolitical leaders who don't immediately check to see if the proponents are from one party or another.

Another flavor of "Warp Speed" perhaps? Here's hoping.
 
No, it's called Logan's Run. I'm sure there are economists in the Administration who have crunched the numbers and they know that older people dying will greatly reduce health care costs, while freeing up >$100 billion, which has a far greater chance of being spent by younger heirs. Not caring about deaths is very sad.

Kudo's for the Logan's Run shout-out. One of the great early Sci-Fi movies.
 
No, it's called Logan's Run. I'm sure there are economists in the Administration who have crunched the numbers and they know that older people dying will greatly reduce health care costs, while freeing up >$100 billion, which has a far greater chance of being spent by younger heirs. Not caring about deaths is very sad.
Guess who pays for most nursing homes? Cuomo can explain.
 
This article was thought provoking and offers a totally different way out of the pandemic short term. The idea mentioned in the headline is not as crazy as you might think after reading the article. For those who find everything political, this was a pretty refreshingly non political article for the most part, from the Atlantic:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...every-american-for-covid-19-every-day/615217/
@RUBOB72 - this would accomplish what I mentioned before about testing everyone more frequently.
 
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No, it's called Logan's Run. I'm sure there are economists in the Administration who have crunched the numbers and they know that older people dying will greatly reduce health care costs, while freeing up >$100 billion, which has a far greater chance of being spent by younger heirs. Not caring about deaths is very sad.

yep same rubber stamp response from you people, the guy in the vid posted it, when you start giving these stats immediately you turn into Greta..how dare you not care about deaths..you are part of the problem


you people cheer deaths on like a game here...perspective matters when looking at stats and who is dying...and that story is being hidden

you obviously gave a pass to Nyc and nj governors because you have moved on..when in fact that should be the main story since almost half deaths are from the nursing homes
 
yep same rubber stamp response from you people, the guy in the vid posted it, when you start giving these stats immediately you turn into Greta..how dare you not care about deaths..you are part of the problem


you people cheer deaths on like a game here...perspective matters when looking at stats and who is dying...and that story is being hidden

you obviously gave a pass to Nyc and nj governors because you have moved on..when in fact that should be the main story since almost half deaths are from the nursing homes
and what would you have people do about it now? the best thing to do now is to figure out how to prevent it from happening again.
 
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I know this was a throwaway troll, but it so perfectly illustrates everything wrong with the one-dimensional thinking we've seen, it's worth picking out.

Under strong leadership, NZ shut down hard, actually made sacrifices for the greater good of society and was able to move on, fully move on - society fully open, sports not only happening but having fans in the stadium, etc. How can you even argue against that? They didn't do that for "the state" - they did it for themselves, unselfishly and collectively.

Meanwhile, thanks to people fighting that type of collective action here - like you're pretending to, presumably for no other reason than the faint hope Trump might like you one day - we'll forget what going back to normal even looks like before we ever get there. And for what? It's not like those flouting the rules are having the time of their lives - everything is still shut down and shitty, but now it's guaranteed to stay that way in some form, indefinitely.

Go ahead and make up excuses of how it could never work here. Perhaps not to the extent it did there, but zero doubt we'd be in a better place with strong leadership and a more collective view of the greater good. We'll just never get to prove that because we're a society filled with raging, self-shitheads each of whom thinks he knows more than everyone else about everything.

And let me save you from rolling out the exhausted, lifeless excuse that's 1000 percent on its way ...yes, go ahead and apply all that to all the protesters and rioters, too. They're just as selfish of assholes as the idiots that think masks invade their second amendment rights.
You do know that New Zealand has seen new cases especially in Aukland where a new lockdown was just extended today by another 12 days, don't you??? Remember when our first lockdown was just going to last 14 days? We are now on day 151 of major restrictions. One hundred and fifty one days!!
 
You do know that New Zealand has seen new cases especially in Aukland where a new lockdown was just extended today by another 12 days, don't you??? Remember when our first lockdown was just going to last 14 days? We are now on day 151 of major restrictions. One hundred and fifty one days!!
define major restrictions...other than indoor dining/bars/movies, large scale gatherings, and gyms...

i can shop, eat, go to the beach, play sports, get on a plane, take a bus/train, get work done on the house, buy a house, buy a car, get personal training services...
 
You do know that New Zealand has seen new cases especially in Aukland where a new lockdown was just extended today by another 12 days, don't you??? Remember when our first lockdown was just going to last 14 days? We are now on day 151 of major restrictions. One hundred and fifty one days!!

Yeah, it's explained rather thoroughly in the thread. What's your point? Still night and day.

And we're not on day 151. Restriction levels have been fluctuating the entire time.

Do you even try to get anything right before tourettesing out whatever pops into your head?
 
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