COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[RU848789]

Saw this and debated posting it, but didn't, as I thought it was overdone. This is exactly the kind of research that chem engineers do and it's certainly cool/interesting stuff, but I think it's worst case kind of thinking. Yeah, maybe there are rare sneezes that can go well beyond a 3-pointer, but most people don't sneeze "outward" and I doubt more than a few sneezes are that powerful and to suggest that the virus becomes truly airborne (virus droplets small/light enough to remain aerosolized for hours and infecting people who walk through the wake of a sneeze 2 hours later or 100 feet away via HVAC) strains credulity.

In addition, we still don't know the dose-infection response curve for this virus, meaning we don't know if people 5' or 20' away from a sneeze would become infected from those virus-laden droplets, much like we don't know if touching a few day-old dried up virus particles on a surface can cause actual infection. It's also been well documented that about 80% of infections in China and elsewhere come from close contact in the home and if the virus was truly airborne and infectious at great distances from sneezes/coughs, we'd very likely see far greater transmission rates than we're seeing. Doesn't mean people shouldn't try to control their sneezes/coughs (mask anyone?), though or that health care workers shouldn't wear the appropriate PPE around symptomatic patients, in particular, but I don't think we need to be changing the 6-foot rule yet.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-125#post-4571736

Excellent article in NatGeo on the question of whether the virus remains airborne as aerosolized fine particulates (<5 micron virus-laden droplets, as larger ones very likely fall to the ground very quickly via gravity) and even if they do, whether they remain suspended and viable for extended periods and whether they truly end up infecting others more than 6 feet away via ventilation systems or just from being in the area, since we know the "dose makes the poison," i.e., the viral dose is hugely important in whether someone gets infected (even though we have no controlled studies on that, which would be unethical).

I've been very skeptical of this route of infection being more than negligible (post above), because the amounts of viable viruses ever collected far away are tiny, especially relative to the numbers of viral particles actively shed by an infected person onto that person's body and exhaled and/or discharged, via sneezes/coughs, which is why the vast majority of cases traced by epidemiological studies have been from close contact. I also look at it this way: if HVAC were a serious source of transmission, far, far more people would be infected by now (same thing for surfaces, by the way). It doesn't mean it can't happen, but I think people are way overworrying about this route, especially since wearing a mask will very likely take that risk down to essentially zero (2nd post above).

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...20200814&rid=3F7A7D00850AD922736B3173646A296D

The article does a nice job of going through the cases for and against aerosolization as a major route of infection, but to me it leans towards that only being a minor transmission pathway, but hedges by saying the usual things: since we can't be 100% sure, wear a mask/practice distancing and stay out of crowded indoor spaces in particular.

But in all of these case studies, aerosol transport did not happen over long distances, which bucks one of the classic conditions for airborne transmission. Chickenpox, for example, is thought to spread down long hallways or across windows of adjacent rooms. Measles can infect people for two hours after someone with the disease leaves a room.

So if coronavirus is airborne, why doesn’t it behave like chickenpox or measles? Compared to most other respiratory diseases, measles is thought to require very little virus from one person to seed an infection in another, and people with measles likely spew enormous amounts.

“Measles is the champion. It’s the Mohammad Ali of viruses,” says Jorge Salinas, hospital epidemiologist at the University of Iowa’s Carver College of Medicine.

The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, on the other hand, may require inhaling a much higher dose to seed a new case. This may mean that coronavirus mist needs sufficient time to become more concentrated and therefore more hazardous—though a modeling study published on July 27 reported that few people with mild or moderate symptoms would produce a high enough amount of virus to pose a risk in poorly ventilated places if breathing normally. The risk increases with coughing.

 

[SkilletHead2]

I'll toss an olive branch across the world your way.

Cheers

And happily received! Great to hear!

 

[albanyknight]

Skillet - Just spoke to Mrs. Skillet and she said it is fine for my wife and I to move in.

See you soon.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Truth. If an operation or something gets botched, you receive a degree of compensation from the government and the surgeon might be investigated, but you suing the surgeon doesn't happen. You fall in a supermarket on a wet spot, you get some bucks for lost wages and that is it.

Love it! Mad respect to NZ. Good to see that the Council of Elrond decided to bashing all lawyers to the lands beyond Middle Earth. Very well done! Lots of common sense in those policies.
:)

 

[King of S]

NJ has averaged over 2,500 positive cases a week over last 8 weeks yet hospitalizations continue to drop. People testing positive but not getting sick? Has Covid19 mutated down to less severe state here in the northeast?

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

they are trying hard to convince themselves that wearing masks while being forced to sit outside to eat under a tent or shop is hardly something that matters to life and enjoyment

you know where I feel the most normal..outdoors at work and at the beach and boardwalk with no mask...those are where you find the most normal places in the world...thats why Biden is a creep for his comments yesterday fear mongering people to wear masks outdoors until the election..lmfao

If this election is a mask referendum, Trump gets slammed. Mask requirements are nearly an 80 / 20 issue per polling. Low hanging fruit for Biden to take advantage of Trump’s constant equivocation on the issue.

It’s also a cross-aisle issue. Wall Street and big business are flummoxed by efforts to undermine mask wearing. It’s a simple task that builds confidence and leads to more spending.

 

[ArminRU]

NJ has averaged over 2,500 positive cases a week over last 8 weeks yet hospitalizations continue to drop. People testing positive but not getting sick? Has Covid19 mutated down to less severe state here in the northeast?

Likely more younger people testing positive. Although it would be nice if it did mutate weaker.

 

[bac2therac]

If this election is a mask referendum, Trump gets slammed. Mask requirements are nearly an 80 / 20 issue per polling. Low hanging fruit for Biden to take advantage of Trump’s constant equivocation on the issue.

It’s also a cross-aisle issue. Wall Street and big business are flummoxed by efforts to undermine mask wearing. It’s a simple task that builds confidence and leads to more spending.

its silly to say you have to wear masks all the time outdoors..thats what he said...and for 3 months.lmfao, what a fool

 

[bac2therac]

+1
The policies of NJ and NY with forcing corona positive elderly patients back to nursing homes to infect everyone else was criminal. Leaders and decision makers need to be held accountable. This is something we all should agree on!

:ThumbsUp

bingo yet they melt when I bring Swedens stats up. Stats matter, look at the NJ cases recently and hospitalizations are way down. Why not report on that which is good news.

We all know what NJ and NY governors did to the eldery, its exactly why they keep deflecting elsewhere to De Santis and red states

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

its silly to say you have to wear masks all the time outdoors..thats what he said...and for 3 months.lmfao, what a fool

You look at it as “well I have to wear a mask when alone on the beach?! That’s silly!!”

The issue isn’t the guy standing alone on an empty beach letting saltwater spray his lips. It’s crowded outdoor activities. Outdoor malls for example: sure, you have to wear a mask when you go in the stores, but people congregate outside without them. Packed beaches, protests, crowded street festivals, etc.

The general rule should be: wherever you are, if other people are around, masks should be worn. However, from a public health policy perspective, the more complex you make a ‘rule’ or mandate, the less likely it will be followed. Vagueness or complexity diminish adoption. I haven’t read Biden’s proposal but it sounds like it cuts out equivocation, and that’s essential.

The mechanism for enforcement in 99.9% of cases won’t be police, it will be peers. Like cutting in line, or talking on a cell phone during a movie, when a culture’s social boundaries are clear, shaming is effective enforcement. So make the rules clear so we can police ourselves. The rule: if I’m close enough to you to tell you to put on a mask, you should be wearing a mask.

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

You look at it as “well I have to wear a mask when alone on the beach?! That’s silly!!”

The issue isn’t the guy standing alone on an empty beach letting saltwater spray his lips. It’s crowded outdoor activities. Outdoor malls for example: sure, you have to wear a mask when you go in the stores, but people congregate outside without them. Packed beaches, protests, crowded street festivals, etc.

The general rule should be: wherever you are, if other people are around, masks should be worn. However, from a public health policy perspective, the more complex you make a ‘rule’ or mandate, the less likely it will be followed. Vagueness or complexity diminish adoption. I haven’t read Biden’s proposal but it sounds like it cuts out equivocation, and that’s essential.

The mechanism for enforcement in 99.9% of cases won’t be police, it will be peers. Like cutting in line, or talking on a cell phone during a movie, when a culture’s social boundaries are clear, shaming is effective enforcement. So make the rules clear so we can police ourselves. The rule: if I’m close enough to you to tell you to put on a mask, you should be wearing a mask.

Expanding on this for a second, because the phone call in a movie theater analogy works well. The social boundary is so clear, and so strong, that if most people received an emergency call in the theater — they would still get up and run out of the theater to take the call.

This is somewhat impractical, because everyone in the theater would likely have sympathy for an emergency; however, the social restrictions are clear, and even the recipient of the call doesn’t want to test exceptions for fear of the whole thing falling apart. We all have to hold a rigorous standard, or we all lose the enjoyment of the experience.

We need this with masks. Some situations have less risk than others, but we can’t come up with a patchwork system of when they are and aren’t required, or the ambiguity will dissolve into all sorts of noncompliance.

The stakes need to be clear: we all want more normalcy and consumer confidence; so we’ll all hold each other to the highest standard in mask wearing. Even if your “gray area” doesn’t post a severe threat to my health, it’s a threat to mask-wearing in general, which then becomes a threat to my health and my wallet. No one wants that. We’ll enjoy the theater; take your call somewhere else, please.

 

[RUBOB72]

Here’s a question about Europe and the number of deaths thus far in comparison to the USA... UK -Spain-Italy- Portugal -Germany-France have an estimated population of 330 million... the death total ranges somewhere between 140-150k ... these are countries which according to our educated board have done so much better because of stringent lockdowns, mask wearing and social distancing...and at this moment in August is on the verge of another severe spread amongst it’s people... And as was mentioned by me prior to number’s figures on Hawaii... Hawaii is not in good shape...

 

[Knight Shift]

Quite a harsh rebuke of Australia's lockdown:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/in...y/news-story/b403b6fa3b30879654a80d8e5c7aa6f0

"The ultimate showcase of political innumeracy is the quasi-religious ritual of The Reading of the Cases. ...
Cases, as a moment’s reflection reveals, do not equal sickness, much less hospitalisations. Until we are entrusted with the knowledge of how many are the results of tests on people who show no symptoms, they serve only to strike terror into the innumerate."

"Their primary purpose seems to be to post-rationalise our leaders’ devastating, simple-minded lockdowns and border closures, and to panic people into sporting their masks of obedience should they be sufficiently reckless as to leave their homes."

"How could anyone who had wreaked damage on this cataclysmic scale ever admit to themselves, let alone to the nation, that it was all for nothing? Instead, like the pokie addict, they have doubled down to unleash a runaway epidemic of stupidity. They’ve destroyed our economy and put thousands out of work; they’ve refashioned many of our famously easygoing population into masked informers; and we’ve handed control of our lives to a clown car packed with idiots."

"Governments don’t exist to tell us how or when we can die; but if life is measured only by length, not quality, this is where we end up: imprisoned, supposedly for our own good, on the basis of flawed statistical modelling and even worse interpretations of that modelling."

 

[RUBOB72]

You look at it as “well I have to wear a mask when alone on the beach?! That’s silly!!”

The issue isn’t the guy standing alone on an empty beach letting saltwater spray his lips. It’s crowded outdoor activities. Outdoor malls for example: sure, you have to wear a mask when you go in the stores, but people congregate outside without them. Packed beaches, protests, crowded street festivals, etc.

The general rule should be: wherever you are, if other people are around, masks should be worn. However, from a public health policy perspective, the more complex you make a ‘rule’ or mandate, the less likely it will be followed. Vagueness or complexity diminish adoption. I haven’t read Biden’s proposal but it sounds like it cuts out equivocation, and that’s essential.

The mechanism for enforcement in 99.9% of cases won’t be police, it will be peers. Like cutting in line, or talking on a cell phone during a movie, when a culture’s social boundaries are clear, shaming is effective enforcement. So make the rules clear so we can police ourselves. The rule: if I’m close enough to you to tell you to put on a mask, you should be wearing a mask.

And that will lead to violence ...I ‘m a proponent of distancing , washing hands and masks ( when social distancing is not possible) but on a beach in 90 degrees . You are more apt to suffer heat stroke than covid19... go back pre pandemic on a beach in New Jersey... people for whatever reason would set up next to someone else even if there was plenty of room to stay 15 -20 - 30’ apart. Why did these idiots do this? Because it was always taught when going into the ocean make sure you are NEAR others... always make certain to stay close... as a kid did you or did you not crowd together with friends and peers? It was a learned thing...now it has to be unlearned until we don’t have to fear covid19... that could realistically be a long time away.

 

[becktheory]

bingo yet they melt when I bring Swedens stats up. Stats matter, look at the NJ cases recently and hospitalizations are way down. Why not report on that which is good news.

We all know what NJ and NY governors did to the eldery, its exactly why they keep deflecting elsewhere to De Santis and red states

Nearly 50% of all covid deaths in Sweden were in LTC facilities. On one hand you state how well Sweden is doing but blast Murphy for LTC deaths. Those two positions don’t tie.

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

And that will lead to violence ...I ‘m a proponent of distancing , washing hands and masks ( when social distancing is not possible) but on a beach in 90 degrees . You are more apt to suffer heat stroke than covid19... go back pre pandemic on a beach in New Jersey... people for whatever reason would set up next to someone else even if there was plenty of room to stay 15 -20 - 30’ apart. Why did these idiots do this? Because it was always taught when going into the ocean make sure you are NEAR others... always make certain to stay close... as a kid did you or did you not crowd together with friends and peers? It was a learned thing...now it has to be unlearned until we don’t have to fear covid19... that could realistically be a long time away.

Cutting in line, talking on a phone in the theater, etc. These things probably cause fights now and then; not nationwide violence. Same goes here — a couple of idiots will get in each others faces because they feel passionately one way or the other. Most will comply, or backdown from shaming.

Most of the country doesn’t go to the beach regularly. Our expectations for best behavior shouldn’t be guided by what works on beaches; enjoyment of beaches instead should be shaped by what works in all other situations.

 

[RU848789]

NJ has averaged over 2,500 positive cases a week over last 8 weeks yet hospitalizations continue to drop. People testing positive but not getting sick? Has Covid19 mutated down to less severe state here in the northeast?

There's no evidence that the virus has mutated into a weaker version (just a more infectious one). Very likely the same reasons hospitalizations per cases in wave 2, nationwide, are half of what they were in wave 1 - a much younger infected patient profile, combined with much more testing per case, meaning more mildly symptomatic/asymptomatic cases.

We're running ~25K tests per day and finding 300-500 cases per day (1-2% positive), whereas we didn't hit 10K tests per day until about May 10th, when the first wave was over. During our peak, we were testing 5-10K per day and getting 3-5K positives (40-50% positive rate) and most of these were at least moderately symptomatic - huge difference.

There are also good reasons why the current peak in deaths is about half what it was in wave 1 for apparently the same number of hospitalizations - improved pharmaceutical treatments (steroids, remdesivir and plasma, especially) and improved medical procedures/decisions. This is great news, although "wave 2" outcome would've been even better if so many states didn't reopen prematurely and if mask compliance had been much higher.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.198855/page-120#post-4664682

 

[T2Kplus10]

bingo yet they melt when I bring Swedens stats up. Stats matter, look at the NJ cases recently and hospitalizations are way down. Why not report on that which is good news.

We all know what NJ and NY governors did to the eldery, its exactly why they keep deflecting elsewhere to De Santis and red states

+1
Nobody can explain or justify these policies. They caused the deaths of many elderly people.

 

[T2Kplus10]

NJ has averaged over 2,500 positive cases a week over last 8 weeks yet hospitalizations continue to drop. People testing positive but not getting sick? Has Covid19 mutated down to less severe state here in the northeast?

Lots of folks say corona mutated in Italy and most of the EU to a less serious virus. Can be happening here are well.

 

[RU848789]

Here’s a question about Europe and the number of deaths thus far in comparison to the USA... UK -Spain-Italy- Portugal -Germany-France have an estimated population of 330 million... the death total ranges somewhere between 140-150k ... these are countries which according to our educated board have done so much better because of stringent lockdowns, mask wearing and social distancing...and at this moment in August is on the verge of another severe spread amongst it’s people... And as was mentioned by me prior to number’s figures on Hawaii... Hawaii is not in good shape...

For a few months now, the EU has had far, far less cases and deaths than the US - that's why the comparisons have looked bad for the US. However, over the past couple of weeks, cases are surging in many parts of Europe, including the countries you mentioned, although they're still only about 10% of the US's cases, per capita (and deaths are <5% per capita, but they lag cases).

If they end up going through what we did, where areas not very hard hit in the first wave get hit hard in the 2nd wave, they'll look just as foolish as we have for letting that happen. Jury is still out on that happening though, as those countries are responding aggressively. August is when everyone takes their holidays in Europe, so it's not a surprise that cases are going up. Jury is also out in Hawaii - they're nowhere near the levels per capita of other states and they're responding aggressively. None of this is easy (other than wearing masks).

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53747852

 

[RU848789]

Lots of folks say corona mutated in Italy and most of the EU to a less serious virus. Can be happening here are well.

Well, there, that proves it. "Lots of folks." Could you be less scientific? Please, show one peer reviewed paper or even a reasonable pre-print paper showing that the virus is less serious than it was. We'll wait.

 

[RocktheRac]

Went for a walk last night and a young couple walking on the other side of the street saw me and immediately pulled there masks up? Did I look sick? Maybe they were? I'm speechless.

 

[bac2therac]

Well, there, that proves it. "Lots of folks." Could you be less scientific? Please, show one peer reviewed paper or even a reasonable pre-print paper showing that the virus is less serious than it was. We'll wait.

Yeah like your theories here about what could have been

 

[bac2therac]

Nearly 50% of all covid deaths in Sweden were in LTC facilities. On one hand you state how well Sweden is doing but blast Murphy for LTC deaths. Those two positions don’t tie.

Yet sweden has sero deaths now and hardly any cases

Are gyms open

 

[bac2therac]

You look at it as “well I have to wear a mask when alone on the beach?! That’s silly!!”

The issue isn’t the guy standing alone on an empty beach letting saltwater spray his lips. It’s crowded outdoor activities. Outdoor malls for example: sure, you have to wear a mask when you go in the stores, but people congregate outside without them. Packed beaches, protests, crowded street festivals, etc.

The general rule should be: wherever you are, if other people are around, masks should be worn. However, from a public health policy perspective, the more complex you make a ‘rule’ or mandate, the less likely it will be followed. Vagueness or complexity diminish adoption. I haven’t read Biden’s proposal but it sounds like it cuts out equivocation, and that’s essential.

The mechanism for enforcement in 99.9% of cases won’t be police, it will be peers. Like cutting in line, or talking on a cell phone during a movie, when a culture’s social boundaries are clear, shaming is effective enforcement. So make the rules clear so we can police ourselves. The rule: if I’m close enough to you to tell you to put on a mask, you should be wearing a mask.

No one is wearing masks on crowded beaches. Ive been 6 times..ditto for boardwalk

Stop letting the msm tell you the conditions outside

 

[T2Kplus10]

Yeah like your theories here about what could have been

All theories are equal, but some theories are more equal than others! :)

 

[bac2therac]

Cutting in line, talking on a phone in the theater, etc. These things probably cause fights now and then; not nationwide violence. Same goes here — a couple of idiots will get in each others faces because they feel passionately one way or the other. Most will comply, or backdown from shaming.

Most of the country doesn’t go to the beach regularly. Our expectations for best behavior shouldn’t be guided by what works on beaches; enjoyment of beaches instead should be shaped by what works in all other situations.

I do not need to wear a mask because i pass someone on the sidewalk and no one can make Americans do that

There is no scientific evidence that passing someone for a second on the street without a mask is spreading coronavirus

 

[bac2therac]

For a few months now, the EU has had far, far less cases and deaths than the US - that's why the comparisons have looked bad for the US. However, over the past couple of weeks, cases are surging in many parts of Europe, including the countries you mentioned, although they're still only about 10% of the US's cases, per capita (and deaths are <5% per capita, but they lag cases).

If they end up going through what we did, where areas not very hard hit in the first wave get hit hard in the 2nd wave, they'll look just as foolish as we have for letting that happen. Jury is still out on that happening though, as those countries are responding aggressively. August is when everyone takes their holidays in Europe, so it's not a surprise that cases are going up. Jury is also out in Hawaii - they're nowhere near the levels per capita of other states and they're responding aggressively. None of this is easy (other than wearing masks).

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53747852

Yes you just masks as blanket answer. Try watching the vid that Albany posted the other day

Its ok to admit we really dont know and we get things wrong. Virus going to virus

 

[RU848789]

Looks like some additional big, positive antibody news in a paper that came out yesterday (preprint, so not peer-reviewed yet, but looks solid) confirming and extending Dr. Krammer's work at Mt. Sinai, posted above. A Chinese study on 349 of the earliest patients from Wuhan shows ~6 months of generally durable antibody response in the "vast majority" of convalescent patients (who recovered from COVID infections). This is very good news for recovered patients retaining immunity for 6 months or more and for any vaccines able to raise neutralizing antibody responses (which we have seen).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.21.20159178v1.full.pdf

Abstract: Long-term antibody responses and neutralizing activities following SARS-CoV-2 infections have not yet been elucidated. We quantified immunoglobulin M (IgM) and G (IgG) antibodies recognizing the SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike (S) or the nucleocapsid (N) protein, and neutralizing antibodies during a period of six months following COVID-19 disease onset in 349 symptomatic COVID-19 patients, which were among the first world-wide being infected. The positivity rate and magnitude of IgM-S and IgG-N responses increased rapidly. High levels of IgMS/N and IgG-S/N at 2-3 weeks after disease onset were associated with virus control and IgG-S titers correlated closely with the capacity to neutralize SARS-CoV-2. While specific IgM-S/N became undetectable 12 weeks after disease onset in most patients, IgG-S/N titers showed an intermediate contraction phase, but stabilized at relatively high levels over the six months observation period. At late time points the positivity rates for binding and neutralizing SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies was still over 70%. Taken together, our data indicate sustained humoral immunity in recovered patients who suffer from symptomatic COVID-19, suggesting prolonged immunity.

Conclusion: In conclusion, antibodies appear to have antiviral effects in the early stages of SARS-CoV-2 infection; and the most symptomatic patients with COVID-19 remain positive for IgG-S and exhibit sufficient neutralizing activity at six months after the onset of illness. These results support the notion that naturally infected patients have the ability to combat re-infection and vaccines may be able to produce sufficient protection. Please note, that analyses which terminated their observation earlier than ours and extrapolates the long-term trend based on this contraction phase without considering or determining the consolidation phase, bear the inherent risk to come to wrong over-pessimistic conclusions concerning the durability of humoral immune responses.

While the above post was mostly on T-cells, there was a nugget in there about how some recent small scale studies have shown patient antibody levels decreasing over time significantly, including one in China with 37 recovered patients who had mild or asymptomatic infections. Well, today Dr. Krammer's group from Mt. Sinai, published a preprint of a paper where they've analyzed antibodies in nearly 20,000 mildly to moderately ill COVID patients (lots of infections in NYC!) and had this wonderfully pithy one sentence summary of the work, which is great news, particularly the part about antibody responses being stable for at least 3 months (the full abstract is below that). While this doesn't "guarantee" 3-month+ immunity in recovered patients or in vaccinated patients who achieve similar antibody levels, it's the way to bet.

One Sentence Summary: Antibody responses induced by natural mild-to-moderate SARS27 CoV-2 infection are robust, neutralizing and are stable for at least 3 months.

Abstract: SARS-CoV-2 has caused a global pandemic with millions infected and numerous fatalities. Questions regarding the robustness, functionality and longevity of the antibody response to the virus remain unanswered. Here we report that the vast majority of infected individuals with mild to-moderate COVID-19 experience robust IgG antibody responses against the viral spike protein, based on a dataset of 19,860 individuals screened at Mount Sinai Health System in New York City. We also show that titers are stable for at least a period approximating three months, and that anti-spike binding titers significantly correlate with neutralization of authentic SARS-CoV-2. Our data suggests that more than 90% of seroconverters make detectible neutralizing antibody responses and that these titers are stable for at least the near-term future.

Conclusion: Our data reveal that individuals who have recovered from mild COVID-19 experience robust antibody responses. Antibody binding titers to the spike protein correlate significantly with neutralization with authentic SARS-CoV-2 virus, and the vast majority of individuals with antibody titers of 1:320 or higher show neutralizing activity in their serum. Consistent with data for human coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-1 and Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome-CoV (23), we also find stable antibody titers over a period of at least 3 months, and we plan to follow this cohort over longer intervals of time. While this cannot provide conclusive evidence that these antibody responses protect from re-infection, we believe it is very likely that they will decrease the odds ratio of getting re-infected, and may attenuate disease in the case of breakthrough infection.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.14.20151126v1.full.pdf

Based on the research at Mt. Sinai showing 3+ months of stable antibody levels in ~20,000 recovered COVID patients, as well as similar work in China, showing 6 months of stable antibodies in ~350 recovered patients (both discussed in posts above), yesterday the CDC revised its quarantine guidance to say that, "People who have tested positive for COVID-19 do not need to quarantine or get tested again for up to 3 months as long as they do not develop symptoms again." This is very good news and well-justified in my opinion. My guess is these folks will be immune for at least a year.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/quarantine.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...-covid-patients-can-t-spread-virus-3-n1236782

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

You're so cute when you try to sound educated and scientific. Ineffective, but cute. So South Korea succeeded because they had did a tabletop pandemic simulation last year? Well, then why didn't we succeed, having inherited an excellent playbook from the Obama administration, and then, last year having had our own pandemic simulation and having a bipartisan group of leaders completing a great report on what could be done to improve our "health security." Read the two posts below and maybe you'll learn something; mine's decent, but @RU4Real's is even better.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/ot-good-news-on-cv-19-treatment.198410/page-2#post-4611813

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/ot-good-news-on-cv-19-treatment.198410/#post-4611001

In case you weren't aware (my guess is you weren't or you wouldn't have made your foolish points on SK's exercise) we had two major pandemic exercises in 2019, one run by the actual Administration, as Azar at HHS oversaw the "Crimson Contagion" simulation last year to evaluate whether we were ready (no) for a pandemic, plus the CSIS (highly respected bipartisan DC think tank with the team's co-chairs being Julie Gerberding, former CDC head and now at Merck, and former US senator Kelly Ayotte, a republican from NH) came out with a very detailed analysis of what was needed to protect human health/national security from biological threats last year, also.

By the way, that report’s number-one recommendation was to undo the Trump administration’s cuts to pandemic planning: “Restore health security leadership at the White House National Security Council.” Both are detailed in the links below. And to boot, as per my post yesterday, 5 former CDC heads are now on record saying the biggest reason for our failed response to the pandemic was our abysmal leadership at the top and our confusing, incoherent communications. Must all be deep state operatives.

https://www.wired.com/story/an-oral-history-of-the-pandemic-warnings-trump-ignored/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-outbreak.html

And let's nip your stupid statement on HCQ right in the bud. Nobody in SK was taking HCQ when they got hit by their big first wave, as that wave started in mid-Feb and was essentially over by mid-March, before the HCQ Army started their months long attack on science and medicine. And once they had controlled the outbreak, they haven't had to treat anyone with any drugs, because their case rates are so amazingly low, less than 100 per day (that's about 600 per day on a US basis, whereas we just peaked at over 60,000 per day). Go ahead, find one reputable source that says HCQ had even a tiny bit to do with SK's success with COVID. It'll be a very long wait. Again, if you'd like to learn something, this time about medical science, please read the attached article on the HCQ fiasco.

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/hy...iN8cQxkJyNhE7xiBAvFLoZ8saTvJBx3DuQsSSXXoJrdxs

The one thing we agree on is that China acted very badly in hiding their outbreak and not initially sharing data they likely had on things like asymptomatic transmissions. But to you, that led to our horrible performance. But not South Korea's and they were hit earlier than the US. Hmmmm, maybe it was just the masks and not all the aggressive testing, tracing, and isolating.

It's so comical to read your stuff when you're having another hyperpartisan hissy fit. Idiotic, but still funny. Not sure why you are lying about what I wrote re: the SK pandemic simulation. Maybe try reading my post--make that multiple posts addressing your silly SoKo to US comparisons again--and take note of the fact that their Dec 2019 pandemic simulation was one of at least 1/2 dozen other factors I cited that make your tedious US-SoKo chicomvirus narrative so ridiculous.

Oh my what a surprise you would call Oblunder's pandemic playbook "excellent" LOL--I know I've cited for you a much different opinion about that--try the search function--it's like Groundhog Day with you. I don't know why you keep citing that NYT drivel, I mean even that left wing rag noted that Trump increased funding for the DHS program that focuses on global pandemic threats in response to Crimson Contagion. And again, no worse critic of Trump than John Bolton himself has stated publicly that the NSC pandemic team reorganization did not diminish its effectiveness, in fact he believed it made it more efficient. I guess you keep recycling your same hyperpartisan nonsense to keep convincing yourself lol.

Former Trump officials, including former national-security adviser John Bolton and Tim Morrison, have disputed Cameron’s characterization (that the Trump administration’s decision to “dismantle” the directorate the Obama administration created to quarterback pandemic responses is to blame for “leaving the country less prepared for pandemics like COVID-19...). They say that there has always been a highly competent team at the NSC focused on and coordinating efforts to recognize and handle the threat of pandemics.

The facts back up Bolton and Morrison. During the summer of 2018, Bolton reorganized the Trump NSC. In January 2017, there were directorates for nonproliferation and arms control, for weapons of mass destruction and terrorism, and for global health security and biodefense. Bolton merged the three directorates into a “counterproliferation and biodefense” directorate. According to administration officials I spoke with, this reorganization was designed in part to have better cooperation between those monitoring and preparing for intentional biological threats on one hand and for naturally occurring biological threats on the other. This directorate is now headed by Anthony Ruggiero.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-truth-national-security-council-pandemic-team/

So I did a quick google of your former CDC head heroes criticizing Trump and I get the picture---we know 2 are Oblunder's guys and 2 others were appointed during Clinton Admin, one stayed for a cup of coffee with Bush Jr. Julie Gerberding started with the Clintoon Admin too, and we know how well those Clintoon holdovers did for GW....thanks for the nonpartisan perspectives hahahaha---and the GMA salute to boot. Do you like beclowning yourself?

Feel free to argue with the SoKo health experts that recommended HCQ since it was their statement I cited, stupid. Not sure why you get your panties in such a bunch whether it was needed or not. Your SoKo heroes recommended it. Let us know how that goes clown.

And then let us know how great the tracing teams are doing in your great blue states of Cali and NJ. From what I've read the programs are tracking poorly at 25% and 35% confirmation rates. Maybe they just need the SoKo military to handle that for them.

 

[Greg2020]

Sweden certainly has positioned themselves forward havent they

not as well as NJ and NY have!

 

[Greg2020]

Nearly 50% of all covid deaths in Sweden were in LTC facilities. On one hand you state how well Sweden is doing but blast Murphy for LTC deaths. Those two positions don’t tie.

fool Sweeden isn't run by democrats so it doesn't matter!!

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Wow, what a rambling incoherent rant. You certainly didn't refute my points and barely even addressed them. You have a future in making far right COVID video rants - you'd be a YouTube star. Congrats.

So you really aren't too good at reading comprehension either. Well, I'll give you credit--nah make that RU, for you being able to assemble and present information, but you really are bad at interpreting reality. No wonder Merck early retired you.

 

[RU848789]

Yes you just masks as blanket answer. Try watching the vid that Albany posted the other day

Its ok to admit we really dont know and we get things wrong. Virus going to virus

If masks were worn 100% they'd be most of the answer (although they're not 100% effective either, especially in high risk contacts), but we're far from 100%. And that video from the far right Mises Institute offered anecdotes and a mish-mash of theories on masks. Wake me up when that guy has an actual coherent data set published in a journal. Or anything published at all. I've posted numerous scientific sources showing masks work quite well, but not perfectly and some masks are better than others - would you like me to repost those for you? Plenty more to learn, but the people who are "wrong" on masks are those who say they "don't work" or that they "work 100%."

 

[Greg2020]

Yet sweden has sero deaths now and hardly any cases

Are gyms open

Wrong Sweden had 13 deaths this week. Zero is not accurate.

 

[ArminRU]

Based on the research at Mt. Sinai showing 3+ months of stable antibody levels in ~20,000 recovered COVID patients, as well as similar work in China, showing 6 months of stable antibodies in ~350 recovered patients (both discussed in posts above), yesterday the CDC revised its quarantine guidance to say that, "People who have tested positive for COVID-19 do not need to quarantine or get tested again for up to 3 months as long as they do not develop symptoms again." This is very good news and well-justified in my opinion. My guess is these folks will be immune for at least a year.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/quarantine.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...-covid-patients-can-t-spread-virus-3-n1236782

A bunch of people took the CDC update as you only have immunity for 3 months, when they meant you have immunity for AT LEAST 3 months. Hope the vaccine trials match what we’re seeing out of recovered patients.....I’m sure they are following the Phase 1/2 folks like a hawk.

 

[RU848789]

So you really aren't too good at reading comprehension either. Well, I'll give you credit--nah make that RU, for you being able to assemble and present information, but you really are bad at interpreting reality. No wonder Merck early retired you.

You couldn't be more wrong on Merck, by the way. If they didn't like my work, why would I be back consulting part-time for the group I used to work for at a rate well above my old pay rate? The reality is they actually wanted to promote me, but I had simply had enough of working 60+ hour weeks for over 30 years and I have more than enough $$ to retire on comfortably. The part-time gig is sweet.

 

[King of S]

There's no evidence that the virus has mutated into a weaker version (just a more infectious one). Very likely the same reasons hospitalizations per cases in wave 2, nationwide, are half of what they were in wave 1 - a much younger infected patient profile, combined with much more testing per case, meaning more mildly symptomatic/asymptomatic cases.

We're running ~25K tests per day and finding 300-500 cases per day (1-2% positive), whereas we didn't hit 10K tests per day until about May 10th, when the first wave was over. During our peak, we were testing 5-10K per day and getting 3-5K positives (40-50% positive rate) and most of these were at least moderately symptomatic - huge difference.

There are also good reasons why the current peak in deaths is about half what it was in wave 1 for apparently the same number of hospitalizations - improved pharmaceutical treatments (steroids, remdesivir and plasma, especially) and improved medical procedures/decisions. This is great news, although "wave 2" outcome would've been even better if so many states didn't reopen prematurely and if mask compliance had been much higher.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.198855/page-120#post-4664682

Good points RU- what’s confusing is experts stated when young people get Covid they would pass to parents and elders. That doesn’t seem to be happening. If you look at most regions that got hit hard there is no second wave.

 

[RUBOB72]

Cutting in line, talking on a phone in the theater, etc. These things probably cause fights now and then; not nationwide violence. Same goes here — a couple of idiots will get in each others faces because they feel passionately one way or the other. Most will comply, or backdown from shaming.

Most of the country doesn’t go to the beach regularly. Our expectations for best behavior shouldn’t be guided by what works on beaches; enjoyment of beaches instead should be shaped by what works in all other situations.

But you do realize some of those same things have caused violence around this country. Looking or wearing a specific hat or shirt or standing in line at Staples has wrecked havoc on some.

 

[RUBOB72]

For a few months now, the EU has had far, far less cases and deaths than the US - that's why the comparisons have looked bad for the US. However, over the past couple of weeks, cases are surging in many parts of Europe, including the countries you mentioned, although they're still only about 10% of the US's cases, per capita (and deaths are <5% per capita, but they lag cases).

If they end up going through what we did, where areas not very hard hit in the first wave get hit hard in the 2nd wave, they'll look just as foolish as we have for letting that happen. Jury is still out on that happening though, as those countries are responding aggressively. August is when everyone takes their holidays in Europe, so it's not a surprise that cases are going up. Jury is also out in Hawaii - they're nowhere near the levels per capita of other states and they're responding aggressively. None of this is easy (other than wearing masks).

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53747852

Not according to the live reports I’ve been receiving the past week... not saying like NY or NJ but based upon population and the demographic still a major concern. They are not set up to handle a major outbreak. The state is reorganizing medical , developing alternatives to hospitals and with the large outbreak within one of their correctional facilities are talking about prisoner release. Doesn’t seem bad but it potentially could spiral out of control. The DOH in Hawaii will be seeking out of state help to work in their hospitals in the event it spreads.