Go Heels! UNC moves to online only instruction after campus outbreak.
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/education/article245014185.html
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/education/article245014185.html
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter Richie O
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biden people will be upset with Florida's
new numbers--they look positive and it's still only August
new numbers--they look positive and it's still only August
“It’s over” lol
All the bad states have been declining for awhile which is good. But nothing is going away, it’s going to ebb and flow until the vaccine rolls around. I think the country will see another growth when school opens. The virus is predictable, the more people move around and gather, the more it spreads. Simple as that.
I think we’re going to see this a lot.
guess what..virus viruses...we know that....we do know that Florida is way down now and on their way to managing..thanks
Am a day late, due to our power outage and don't have time for the full analysis of past weeks either, so just going with a summary...
- Note: I'm using 7-day moving averages on a per capita (per 1MM) basis for these discussions of cases, hospitalizations and deaths, from the Covidtracking site.
- National Stats: cases peaked and plateaued for about 3 weeks at roughly ~2X the first wave, but are clearly now on the decline, while hospitalizations have also started to decline, after peaking at slightly more than the peak in the first wave, but this turns out to be only a little more than half of what they were in the first wave (relative to cases, which were 2X, as much per capita). Deaths are up over 2X from their early July low and look like they might be starting to peak at about half of the April peak (1100-1150/day now vs. 2250/day in April). So, relatively speaking, a bit of better news, although our current peak death rates are still worse than all but a handful of countries with over 50MM in population (Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and South Africa), per capita.
- Cases in AZ/FL/TX/CA: For the 4 states I've been looking at, closely (Florida, Texas, California, as all three spiked and are the 3 largest states, plus Arizona, as it peaked earlier and has a similar population as NJ, the comparator) cases are continuing to decline in AZ and in FL/TX/CA, cases appeared to be just starting to decline last week, but are definitely declining now. The AZ peak was about 30% more, per capita (per 1MM people) than the NJ peak (about 3500/day or 400/1MM), while the FL peak was ~50% more, the TX peak was ~10% less and the CA peak was ~40% less.
- Hospitalizations in AZ/FL/TX/CA: AZ's hospitalizations peaked (and are declining) at ~55% of NJ's (which were 8000 total or 900 per 1MM), while FL peaked at about 50% of NJ's per capita rate (and is declining) and TX peaked at ~45% of NJ's rate and is now declining. CA peaked last week at 25% of NJ's peak and have started to decline. As per previous reports, these reductions vs. NJ are likely due to the much younger age of those infected in this wave, combined with far more aggressive testing than during our peak (we had positivity rates of 40-50% due to lack of tests), which is discovering more mild/asymptomatic cases.
- Deaths in AZ/FL/TX/CA: My guesstimate has been that deaths in AZ/FL/TX would likely be about 1/3-2/3 of the peaks of NJ (about 270-300/day or ~31/1MM), partly due to the younger age and milder cases of those infected (as above) and partly due to improved treatments and procedures. AZ peaked at ~40% of NJ's peak and despite having major fluctuations, they're death rates finally appear to have levelled off and may be starting to decline. FL is now at about 30% of NJ's peak and it's possible they're approaching their peak, while TX looks like it may have peaked at 30% of NJ's peak, but their death data have been all over the map, so let's wait another week before declaring they've peaked. CA's case/hospitalization rates have been well below the other 3 states and is why CA is only at 12% of NJ's peak and will likely max out at <15% of NJ's peak, as I've been predicting based on lower case rates per capita vs. the other 3 states. It's quite possible that deaths have been on the low side of my guesstimates given the recent data showing convalescent plasma likely has over a 50% mortality reduction and it's being used heavily in seriously ill patients.
Maybe you should just start reading and reposting my posts, so you look like you're actually up to date on things. Been talking about Florida cases dropping for 2 weeks.
No, sir. Saw it coming. The UNC System in a rush to open up, despite rising cases statewide. Other schools in the system will experience the same dynamic.
FYI, my patented "Go Heels!" cheer is ironic and sarcastic. Not a fan. I do have fun with their ability to "seem rather than be."
because they had a few good reporting days after they slowed down testing during their storm? Florida deaths still rising bigly.
and i know what you are going to say...excusing ny and nj because it was early in the pandemic..so scientific
Yes the truth is very scientific, also Florida covers up deaths.
haha deaths per million doesnt lie does it..without crippling their economy
do you want me to actually post the numbers
yeah but but but...cases...yeah cases of asymptomatics
not sending them to die in nursing homes which keeps getting excused everyday here when its the biggest bugaboo looking at ny and nj
Florida's deaths keep rising bigly everyday, their economy isn't doing well, his approval rating in the state is bigly down, and he covered up tons of deaths. The people of Florida are tired of winning. Food banks record high people coming to them in Florida.
Not a good showing for Christian Churches in South Korea. Their two biggest outbreaks, by far, including the current one, have been in very insular churches that tend to not follow the SK "rules" and this one's even worse, because the leader of this church has said that God will save believers from the virus; unfortunately craziness is a common trait in at least some segment of every country. This will be the sternest test, yet, for SK's ability to use aggressive testing/tracing/isolating to stamp out another flare-up before it becomes a more widespread outbreak. After 279 cases yesterday (a new high since March), they dropped to 197 today, but it's not clear if that's a real decline yet.
https://www.mynspr.org/post/south-k...-19-after-months-low-infection-rates#stream/0
KCDC chief Jeong warned that virus clusters linked to religious activities have spread across the nation "at a terrific speed." Authorities believe the cluster in the Sarang Jeil Church began with one follower who attended a service on Aug. 9 and tested positive Aug. 12.
Since then, authorities have obtained lists of 4,000 members, quarantined 3,400 and tested 2,000, and found 312 tested positive. The central government plans to lodge a complaint against the church's leader, pastor Jun Kwang-hoon, for allegedly hindering efforts to combat the spread of the coronavirus.
The church denied claims that Jun violated quarantine to lead massive anti-government protests in central Seoul on Saturday, despite a government ban on large gatherings during the pandemic. The conservative firebrand pastor has called for the impeachment of President Moon Jae-in, whom he accuses of being in cahoots with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. He also claims that God will save believers from the coronavirus.
https://www.mynspr.org/post/south-k...-19-after-months-low-infection-rates#stream/0
KCDC chief Jeong warned that virus clusters linked to religious activities have spread across the nation "at a terrific speed." Authorities believe the cluster in the Sarang Jeil Church began with one follower who attended a service on Aug. 9 and tested positive Aug. 12.
Since then, authorities have obtained lists of 4,000 members, quarantined 3,400 and tested 2,000, and found 312 tested positive. The central government plans to lodge a complaint against the church's leader, pastor Jun Kwang-hoon, for allegedly hindering efforts to combat the spread of the coronavirus.
The church denied claims that Jun violated quarantine to lead massive anti-government protests in central Seoul on Saturday, despite a government ban on large gatherings during the pandemic. The conservative firebrand pastor has called for the impeachment of President Moon Jae-in, whom he accuses of being in cahoots with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. He also claims that God will save believers from the coronavirus.
It's good the case numbers are down, but Behrenson is a bit delusional if he thinks it's over.
what is going in Hawaii...ready for another complete shutdown
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...s-surpassed-another-lockdown-is-on-the-table/
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...s-surpassed-another-lockdown-is-on-the-table/
not literally but over in the sense is that they should start following what happened in Arizona
better than nothing and better than 25%...where is Murphy..give these gyms the guidelines, there is no data that is any different in Pa, ct, ny
+1
FL still has a much better record than NJ and NY.
The two states are completely different stories. One got blindsided by the initial wave, but did a good job of getting it under control. The other opened up too much and let things get out of control.
I wish we could be sure that all the data is being reported accurately
Over or under reporting is not helpful
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/i...hat-lowered-case-tally/ar-BB184uob?li=BBorjTa
Over or under reporting is not helpful
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/i...hat-lowered-case-tally/ar-BB184uob?li=BBorjTa
Florida covid deaths have doubled in the last month to nearly 10k. First it was COVID would never be an issue in the US. Then it was well the cases in the northeast are ten times anywhere else. Now the cases by population are quickly passing New York and New Jersey. Now it is but look at the deaths. Well I hope in three months we have a better idea on treatments, adequate staffing, PPE and mask mandates plus social distancing.
That fact of the matter is that the deaths in two months from some of these other states will begin passing New Jersey. That is very sad.
I believe Florida also had a surge in deaths reported to be from pneumonia. Pneumonia deaths in Florida were supposedly higher this year but not Covid related which I fine questionable.
I told you I have been watching and speaking to friends on Oahu for 3-4 weeks...people do as they please all over the country and Hawai’i is no different... governor and mayors are derelict in their duties... not good.
They also have many less
Blindsided and drastically unprepared ... there is no difference no matter how much one attempts to sugar coat it...
Nobody here is going to deny that it’s embarrassing how unprepared this country was in March. We are old enough to have lived and watched that debacle.
Florida will likely have about 40-50% of NY/NJ's per capita death rate when wave 2 is over - and would be even higher if FL didn't have such a huge and growing gap between counted COVID deaths and actual excess deaths (4200 as of 8/1 vs. 7000 recorded COVID deaths). FL should also get no "credit" for having a death rate per capita during wave 2 which is significantly lower than what we had here, since that's largely due to significantly improved pharmaceutical treatments and medical procedures and has very little to do with what they've done (apart from doing better, so far, in protecting the elderly, which one would hope they would do better at given so much more warning).
They simply got "lucky" they didn't get hit hard in wave 1, meaning their lockdown was even more effective, since they didn't have a huge % of their population infected before testing was available to reveal it. But then, despite knowing what happened in the NE US, DeSantis reopened FL well before they achieved CDC targets for reopening, leading to a 2nd wave which has had a bit more cases than we had, but only about half the hospitalizations (due to younger/milder cases, given much better available testing) and maybe 1/3 the death rate. So, no "credit" from me for getting lucky on timing, being foolish on reopening and then getting lucky again on having much better procedures/treatments available many months later.
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