Coronavirus hospitalizations down to lowest levels of pandemic. So where is our exit strategy?
As of August 13,
according to the CDC’s surveillance program, those with coronavirus-like illness (CLI) are just 1.8 percent of emergency department visits, which matches the June 6 level before the surge in the South. In early July, it was up to 4.3%.
Those numbers have bottomed out even lower than May levels, even in the South. Coronavirus patients
make up fewer than 3 percent of patients in every region of the country. According to the AP, “Florida reported about 3,900 new cases of the coronavirus Sunday, the lowest daily total in nearly two months.” ER visits for COVID-like illness
are down 63% since the peak in July.
Arizona has long been past its peak, even though the media continues to act as if the state is on fire. Arizona’s hospital census is the
lowest it has been since June 3. And although Mondays are usually light reporting days, the state reported
zero deaths yesterday and fewer than 500 new cases.
In Texas, hospitalizations are
down 43 percent from the July 22 peak and declining rapidly. Even the border counties, which were hit harder than almost anywhere in the country, have declined after a tough July.
Clearly, the southern states barely got exposed to the virus early on in the spring and have now reached their degree of saturation. Except,
contrary to the predictions by panicked commentators of multiple New York-level death traps being replicated all over the country, these states kept the situation under control without anything near New York’s level of death and panic.
As my friend Ian Miller
pointed out, on April 13, in New York and New Jersey combined, a population of 28.2 million had 26,606 COVID hospitalizations. Today, Arizona, California, Georgia, Florida, and Texas, with a combined population of 108 million, have 21,971 COVID patients. And remember, we are better now at identifying the full population of COVID cases than we were in March.
Herd immunity will be achieved at roughly 20 percent in most places
What’s becoming clear is that every major population area is going to achieve this 15%-20% threshold whether they like it or not.
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