ADVERTISEMENT

COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

Status
Not open for further replies.
For me, a fairly simple guidance would be: "always maintain 6 feet of distance from any other person in public (indoors or outdoors) and when you're in a situation where you can't be sure of maintaining that distance, then wear a mask." The problem is that even that subtlety is lost on a decent fraction of people, so officials then come out with these "mandatory" mask policies for everyone outside the home, as that's simply easier to remember/enforce. But it pisses people off who know the difference. I wear a mask in any store, but not walking around the neighborhood, but I would wear one if walking in a city where it's a lot more crowded (haven't actually done that yet).

Furthermore, what I wrote has a number of "exceptions" to it, in reality. For example distancing with no mask is likely very effective beyond 4-5' indoors and probably beyond 2-3' outdoors, where "contact" time is only a few seconds (since infection is dose-dependent although we don't know the exact dose for the giver/receiver and individuals vary) and someone isn't sneezing, coughing or breathing very heavily, like simply walking by someone. It's why I think eating outdoors without a mask with several feet of distance is likely fine (as long as the mask goes on when talking to anyone nearby, including staff), but that same distance might not be ok indoors with less air movement. The risk there can also be, what if someone at the next table 4 feet from me starts coughing or sneezing right at me, unexpectedly - it's risks like that which have prevented us from going anywhere in public near people w/o a mask.

So, being on the beach w/o a mask or just walking around where population density is low w/o a mask are likely very safe, but standing in line for 10 minutes within a couple of feet of someone or standing next to someone at a concert (even outdoors) for awhile are very likely not safe without a mask. And I could write out a bunch more scenarios (different businesses for example) with subtle differences from these - the list of exposure/transmission variables (and risk tolerance variability) is huge and writing a guidance that tries to include more than a few gets very unwieldy quickly. Do you see how difficult it could become to write a realistic guidance for people to follow? That's why very simplistic guidances appeal to public health officials.


#s, appreciate the info above. Can you give a brief overview of where we stand with transmission via means such as packages of food bought in stores, or takeout food, etc.? There was originally a lot of talk in the prior thread about decontaminating food packages, mail, etc. and wondering how much we know at this point about transmission via methods other than someone breathing/coughing, etc. Are people still wiping down all food packaging? Thanks.
 
President pointing out that Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden reopened schools without issue, therefore we should too. Of course, things in the US look very different than in those countries.

A lot of people, starting at the top, want to “have their cake and eat it too.” They want the virus recovery without ever actually finishing the hard work and sacrifice of suppressing the outbreak. V-shaped recovery (lost cause) and normalcy don’t occur when we say we’re ready for them, they come about from us actively creating conditions that foster their arrival.

I’m unsure of what to do about the schools thing. Kids will probably be mostly unharmed, but not sure how they act as spreaders. Also not sure if we’ll actually do anything to change schools to limit transmission — I suspect we won’t.

The president's view on opening schools now seals it. Blue states will now close schools until next year and Red states will open them up now. :)
 
The president's view on opening schools now seals it. Blue states will now close schools until next year and Red states will open them up now. :)
I know this is a tongue in cheek post here.

But, there is certainly something to what you are saying and it is interesting that many blue states will be in a better situation to open then many red states. So will these red states try open up in the face of high new case #'s?

From what I'm hearing from parents schools are asking parents what they want to do and it sounds like some form of hybrid at home/online is the likely path.
 
I know this is a tongue in cheek post here.

But, there is certainly something to what you are saying and it is interesting that many blue states will be in a better situation to open then many red states. So will these red states try open up in the face of high new case #'s?

From what I'm hearing from parents schools are asking parents what they want to do and it sounds like some form of hybrid at home/online is the likely path.

Yes of course they will.
 
Numbers,

You are citing an article which quotes ancedotal evidence and does not cite any studies or surveys. In a country of 350 million being able to find 4 or 5 stories like this is hardly evidence of a widespead belief that the virus is not real and disinformation is causing the spread. Even before the widespead use of the internet, There have always been people who believe in conspiracies. This article is designed and has succeded in getting you to believe that people in the south and west are rubes, and I suspect designed to get support for the demands currently being placed on facebook to police speech. This article is pretty much an example of the disinformation you are talking about.

What I would like to see are some surveys by some reptutable research organizations that show the prevelace of these attitudes.
Fair question, although I wasn't talking about whether people think the virus is real or not (I assume/hope that is now a very small percentage), but more about the seriousness of the virus and the risks/mitigations, which isn't the same thing. A recent Pew Research survey just came out showing a wide divide between republicans and democrats in their opinions on a host of coronavirus issues, such as concerns over health impacts from the virus, mask-wearing, comfort in being in crowds, distancing, etc, which are all related to how seriously one takes the virus. Now, saying this is due to social media or cable news or whatever is another step, but there are clearly major differences and I'm hard pressed to believe that social media/general media aren't playing a major role in that (and there are plenty of articles that attest to it).

https://www.pewresearch.org/politic...e-even-further-apart-in-coronavirus-concerns/
 
#s, appreciate the info above. Can you give a brief overview of where we stand with transmission via means such as packages of food bought in stores, or takeout food, etc.? There was originally a lot of talk in the prior thread about decontaminating food packages, mail, etc. and wondering how much we know at this point about transmission via methods other than someone breathing/coughing, etc. Are people still wiping down all food packaging? Thanks.

Below is my post from the other day on this; been saying for quite some time that surface (fomite) transmission risk is very low vs. person-to-person risks from sneezes, coughs, and even breathing, as well as direct touching. But nobody is saying it's zero risk, so we continue to decontaminate packaging for things that are perishable (or takeout) before putting in the fridge/freezer or for the rest, including mail, we let it sit for 2 days before opening, since that's actually easier than wiping things down (we just put it on a counter in the garage) - our logic for 2 days is that the vast majority of virus particles are deactivated within 24-48 hours at room temperature (we were doing 3 days but dropped to 2 and 1 is probably fine). My guess is that just about all of this is unnecessary, but since the effort is tiny and the potential risk is huge, we continue to do it.

Been saying for a long time that transmission from inanimate surfaces is at most a very minor route (compared to transmission from person to person, via sneezes, coughs and even breath and touching) and this "academic comment" was just published by an RU professor of Microbiology, entitled, "Exaggerated risk of transmission of COVID-19 by fomites (surfaces)." Mask wearing when distancing isn't possible is far, far more important than disinfecting surfaces. Here's his summary...

"In my opinion, the chance of transmission through inanimate surfaces is very small, and only in instances where an infected person coughs or sneezes on the surface, and someone else touches that surface soon after the cough or sneeze (within 1–2 h). I do not disagree with erring on the side of caution, but this can go to extremes not justified by the data. Although periodically disinfecting surfaces and use of gloves are reasonable precautions especially in hospitals, I believe that fomites that have not been in contact with an infected carrier for many hours do not pose a measurable risk of transmission in non-hospital settings. A more balanced perspective is needed to curb excesses that become counterproductive."

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099(20)30561-2

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-121#post-4569570
 
You could do a little leg work yourself.
His and the others trolls' MO is to make stupid assertions and let everyone else run around pulling data and posting research and other linked articles and then dismissing them as fake news or being dismissive by saying "but what about NY/NJ", even though there is plenty of nuance regarding how things are different b/w NY/NJ and what is happening to the rest of the country now that could be had in a civil conversation. Stop wasting your time. It actually clutters the thread which has some good nuggets of info and discussion between disagreeing parties.
 
Fair question, although I wasn't talking about whether people think the virus is real or not (I assume/hope that is now a very small percentage), but more about the seriousness of the virus and the risks/mitigations, which isn't the same thing. A recent Pew Research survey just came out showing a wide divide between republicans and democrats in their opinions on a host of coronavirus issues, such as concerns over health impacts from the virus, mask-wearing, comfort in being in crowds, distancing, etc, which are all related to how seriously one takes the virus. Now, saying this is due to social media or cable news or whatever is another step, but there are clearly major differences and I'm hard pressed to believe that social media/general media aren't playing a major role in that (and there are plenty of articles that attest to it).

https://www.pewresearch.org/politic...e-even-further-apart-in-coronavirus-concerns/

I think that if you were to do a deeper dive (and this is just my opinion) you would find no so much a divide by party but by region. The NE experienced the worst of the virus early and most of the local and national news was focused on it. In the south and west, they did not have it so bad but they experienced the lock downs, unemployment and business closings, without the experience of knowing anybody who became sick from it. At some point I think many people felt this was overblown and not worth the disruptions.
 
Just read my 1st bit of Florida Hospital info.
There are 56 ICU's at full capacity in the State of Florida as per yesterday. I have never seen info on florida hospitals before so that's a 1st....evidently AZ is currently worst with 1 in 4 test coming back positive
 
I think that if you were to do a deeper dive (and this is just my opinion) you would find no so much a divide by party but by region. The NE experienced the worst of the virus early and most of the local and national news was focused on it. In the south and west, they did not have it so bad but they experienced the lock downs, unemployment and business closings, without the experience of knowing anybody who became sick from it. At some point I think many people felt this was overblown and not worth the disruptions.
Anecdotally speaking, there are quite a few people I've interacted with in this region who were unaffected as well, and they are just as dismissive.
 
I've mentioned this point before but I'd like to see a study on the "long haulers," the ones still fighting ongoing problems for weeks and months. These are young people too and some actually get better only to be hit again with symptoms. Obviously, death is #1 issue but I wouldn't want to be living in a debilitated state where QOL turns crap. It's so new who knows how long these issues last and if some are permanent. I'd like to know the percentage and demographics of cases that end up as "long haulers" and if there's any commonality to those who end up like that.
 
I've mentioned this point before but I'd like to see a study on the "long haulers," the ones still fighting ongoing problems for weeks and months. These are young people too and some actually get better only to be hit again with symptoms. Obviously, death is #1 issue but I wouldn't want to be living in a debilitated state where QOL turns crap. It's so new who knows how long these issues last and if some are permanent. I'd like to know the percentage and demographics of cases that end up as "long haulers" and if there's any commonality to those who end up like that.
That's an excellent question and I'm not sure if anyone is really capturing that data in a coordinated way. I think sometimes we are like, "Okay, he got it, but didn't die," and all is well. Maybe we need to raise our bar with this a little more.
 

If you think logically and clearly about that, it means that there is a long death reporting tail. I.e., the deaths reported today are not complete and will not be for some time. If no one else actually died of the virus going forward, there would still be more deaths reported as the information makes its way through the system.

Get it?
 
His and the others trolls' MO is to make stupid assertions and let everyone else run around pulling data and posting research and other linked articles and then dismissing them as fake news or being dismissive by saying "but what about NY/NJ", even though there is plenty of nuance regarding how things are different b/w NY/NJ and what is happening to the rest of the country now that could be had in a civil conversation. Stop wasting your time. It actually clutters the thread which has some good nuggets of info and discussion between disagreeing parties.
Great post. I know I spend a lot of time refuting uninformed posts or answering what are often troll-ish questions, but I hate leaving unchallenged incorrect info or implications out there. I have backed off on that a lot, though, as there are just too many such posts. When it becomes excessive though, like with Proud and others, this is where moderation could help (or having a CE board where they could troll all day, lol).
 
Great post. I know I spend a lot of time refuting uninformed posts or answering what are often troll-ish questions, but I hate leaving unchallenged incorrect info or implications out there. I have backed off on that a lot, though, as there are just too many such posts. When it becomes excessive though, like with Proud and others, this is where moderation could help (or having a CE board where they could troll all day, lol).

Blather again by you. You've been way off the wall of late. You ok?

But to get you back on track, your thoughts on this?

 
I think that if you were to do a deeper dive (and this is just my opinion) you would find no so much a divide by party but by region. The NE experienced the worst of the virus early and most of the local and national news was focused on it. In the south and west, they did not have it so bad but they experienced the lock downs, unemployment and business closings, without the experience of knowing anybody who became sick from it. At some point I think many people felt this was overblown and not worth the disruptions.
I "liked" your post, not because I necessarily agree with it, but I like that you stated a position, which could well be true (i.e., it's certainly plausible) and made it clear it was your opinion. I wish more folks would do that. My opinion is that the divide would be independent of region, but until we have more data (and maybe we do, I'm not sure), it'll remain an unknown.
 
Blather again by you. You've been way off the wall of late. You ok?

But to get you back on track, your thoughts on this?

I accept it at face value as I have no reason to think otherwise. You've added very little of value in many days, so forgive me if I ignore your input. You should go re-read Richie's first post in the thread.
 
I accept it at face value as I have no reason to think otherwise. You've added very little of value in many days, so forgive me if I ignore your input. You should go re-read Richie's first post in the thread.

My advice to you is to stop the political spin.

Linking untrustworthy news sites makes me skip over much of your posts too Mr 8" of rain.

Enjoy the afternoon
 
Just read my 1st bit of Florida Hospital info.
There are 56 ICU's at full capacity in the State of Florida as per yesterday. I have never seen info on florida hospitals before so that's a 1st....evidently AZ is currently worst with 1 in 4 test coming back positive
They only started to release it yesterday. We know why.
 
How many times do we have to tell you Deaths take a while to occur. Yesterday, Texas had 84 deaths and NJ had like 52 or 57.
We have to be counting deaths differently than even say NY. Our death rate has continued to stay in the average 30's while NY has dipped way below that with even more cases being reported sometimes twice or three times more.

Hell yesterday 50 and today 71 yet go back 14 to 21 days and we only had on average around 300 new cases reported. Either our health care completely sucks or we're counting deaths differently than everyone else. I have been monitoring this specific issue for weeks and our death rate is staggering compared to others.
 
Last edited:
Who knows, but this is HUGE news.

It distorts the current reality and policy is being justified with the data.

It needs further investigation.

Of course #s and his followers are ignoring it.
you and others get ants in your pants that suspected covid deaths are included in the count, yet you also get annoyed when things like autopsies and investigations of cause of death show covid as the reason? you're just an ornery old cuss, aren't you?
 
California had the most deaths reported yesterday with 118.
On their way to another high number today. So after a month long run of a very flat curve they also look to be on the uptick. Which is, like in those other states with increased cases, to be expected.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Greg2020
On their way to another high number today. So after a month long run of a very flat curve they also look to be on the uptick. Which is, like in those other states with increased cases, to be expected.

Texas with a new high at 107 (yesterday was the previous high at 85)

As of now, deaths look to be down from yesterday, but up 26% week over week.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Greg2020
Status
Not open for further replies.
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT