COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[RU848789]

Powerful data and POV:

School Closures Threaten Kids More Than COVID-19, Pediatricians Say
https://www.heritage.org/education/...q-53zdZJGy9w58PEQHuvAYDnil2q_CLj-BZuN0NUsDPlY

I agree that we should do everything we can to have kids in schools come this fall, at least for part of the time, via some combo of in-person (with more distancing, which likely means less students per physical classroom) and remote learning, since I'm not sure masks are going to work that well for kids (compliance). However, the head of the APA which recommended schools reopen, backtracked a bit on that today, saying schools might not want to do that where cases are surging. This isn't a kids issue, but a teachers/staff/parents issue.

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...oup-says?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=national

As I said months ago, I would've put all the kids in quarantine for 3 weeks with young, low risk teachers to get them all infected so they wouldn't be vectors in the future, but that wasn't going to happen. The problem still remains what to do about the risks to teachers/staff and, of course, families/parents? If I had a kid in school I'd basically quarantine them in the house (wearing masks and no touching/hugging) for the first 3 weeks of school, assuming they'd get it in the first 10 days and no longer be infectious after 10 more days (14 days is a little overdone, IMO).

 

[greenknight]

Spoke to my friend that came extremely close to checking out hes probably at about 90% right now. Saw him for the 1st time this past weekend since 3/9. Intubated for like 10 days he feels extremely extremely lucky he survived and reiterated what others have said.....protect yourselves at all costs you do not want this and that was has nothing to do with his 2+ week hospitalization and intubation. Prior to him even going to the hospital it was excruciating between the non stop chills, extreme fever , extreme headache, shortness of breath, and being so weak not being a to stand it kills you. Ironically he did not have real bad body pain just a pounding headache like hes never felt before

 

[T2Kplus10]

its meaningless for show, people were doing this anyway, now he is just appearing to be a dictator

+1
Hits the nail on the head.

 

[King of S]

New Jersey has been doing this all along classifying many deaths as covid even if they weren't all because of money!!

Politicians need to be called out now. Insane what they are doing.

 

[King of S]

How come 45 states have gyms open but not NJ? Connecticut and Pa. open for weeks with no issues.

 

[RU848789]

New Jersey has been doing this all along classifying many deaths as covid even if they weren't all because of money!!

That's simply wrong and impugns the reputations of your medical colleagues who were on the front lines. Most of the "presumptive" positive COVID deaths were at the height of the pandemic when some patients in the hospital, who obviously had COVID, based on symptoms, were not tested, since the test was meaningless given the symptoms and requires PPE (which was in short supply) and engenders infection risks for those taking the samples.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html

 

[bac2therac]

How come 45 states have gyms open but not NJ? Connecticut and Pa. open for weeks with no issues.

no reason or data given and there has been no evidence that gyms are causing spikes...its pure power grab by the governor as is all his edicts

 

[WhiteBus]

So after much delay I had blood drawn today for the antibodies test. The doctor was very clear the negatives results are greatly flawed. Positives are spot on. So the % of people who test negative are completely understated by a lot! Including a fellow worker who tested and had the virus with symptoms from her husband, a doctor at a hospital, that was very sick and both tested negative for antibodies twice. They wanted to give blood to help and were rejected. If any of you really think a virus vaccination is coming soon then think again.

 

[WhiteBus]

How come 45 states have gyms open but not NJ? Connecticut and Pa. open for weeks with no issues.

No gyms open in Philly

 

[greenknight]

So after much delay I had blood drawn today for the antibodies test. The doctor was very clear the negatives results are greatly flawed. Positives are spot on. So the % of people who test negative are completely understated by a lot! Including a fellow worker who tested and had the virus with symptoms from her husband, a doctor at a hospital, that was very sick and both tested negative for antibodies twice. They wanted to give blood to help and were rejected. If any of you really think a virus vaccination is coming soon then think again.

My next door neighbor the ICU dr got rejected for his blood as well

 

[RU848789]

So after much delay I had blood drawn today for the antibodies test. The doctor was very clear the negatives results are greatly flawed. Positives are spot on. So the % of people who test negative are completely understated by a lot! Including a fellow worker who tested and had the virus with symptoms from her husband, a doctor at a hospital, that was very sick and both tested negative for antibodies twice. They wanted to give blood to help and were rejected. If any of you really think a virus vaccination is coming soon then think again.

You (or your doc) have that backwards. The viral PCR tests suffers from very high false negatives (meaning people who test negative for the virus have a 20-30% chance of actually having it) and very low false positives, while the antibody test is the opposite: it has a high false positive rate (due mostly to low seroprevalence in the population) and very low false negative rate.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-133#post-4579241

 

[Jm0513]

There is a man in Dallas who has lived nearly all of his life dependent on an iron lung because of polio. In his childhood and now senior years, it is a 24 / 7 thing. For much of adulthood, he was able to leave it for a portion of the day (after learning an alternate method of voluntary breathing —essentially forcing himself to gulp air) — he went to college, and practiced law in Texas.

He has long suggested and feared that the vaccine regime will ultimately fail, and diseases like polio will emerge again, because as people like him die, and fear of diseases like polio fades, anti-vaccine conspiracies will become more appealing.

He was right and wrong. @Jm0513 and @bac2therac show we don’t have to forget the diseases themselves before we abandon their vaccines.

Would be curious to know how / why you guys arrived at this decision that you don’t want to be vaccinated.

Sorry, just saw this now..odd I didn't get the notification..
I'm not an anti-vaxxer. I did space out my baby's immunizations, but she was vaccinated.
I personally choose to not put unneccessary toxins into my body especially if I don't know possible side effects..
My daughter will be 16 and can make up her own mind about whether she would like to get it.
We try and live chemical free. I don't use baby powder or deodorant you buy at Rite Aid either.
I'll let y'all be the guinea pigs and then decide further down the line if need be.

 

[cohwx]

Anyone know where @cohwx has been? Used to be a daily contributor to this thread with some good info but havent seen anything from him in several weeks. Hope all is well.

Haven't logged in for a while. Got tired of all the political stuff and bickering that was polluting the old thread so I stopped reading. This one seems to be going the same way, unfortunately.

Thanks for asking though! Doing OK, cases are still pretty low up here (Rochester NY area), hospitalizations/ICU/deaths way down. Have ventured out a few times (finally got a haircut after almost 6 months, whew!), couple of doctor visits, restocking at Lowes, etc. People are wearing masks, it's rare to see someone without. Haven't encountered any Karens.

Will be interesting to see how things evolve. Can we maintain the low infection rate or will we slip up and wind up where Florida, Arizona and other states are? Not sure what is going to happen with colleges. My wife teaches at a local college and they are planning to open with almost exclusively in-person classes. She has a lab class that will have a bunch of students in close quarters. Because of medical conditions, she may be able to get an exemption. Not sure bringing back students from all over the country (and other countries) is going to work out very well and faculty are feeling like they are being treated as sacrificial lambs.

 

[LC-88]

Spoke to my friend that came extremely close to checking out hes probably at about 90% right now. Saw him for the 1st time this past weekend since 3/9. Intubated for like 10 days he feels extremely extremely lucky he survived and reiterated what others have said.....protect yourselves at all costs you do not want this and that was has nothing to do with his 2+ week hospitalization and intubation. Prior to him even going to the hospital it was excruciating between the non stop chills, extreme fever , extreme headache, shortness of breath, and being so weak not being a to stand it kills you. Ironically he did not have real bad body pain just a pounding headache like hes never felt before

Glad to hear he is doing well. Good to hear first hand accounts. Thanks for posting. If it's not too much trouble, would you mind asking him if his headache was in the front of his head, near the base of the skull near the neck, or everywhere. Thank you.

 

[WhiteBus]

You (or your doc) have that backwards. The viral PCR tests suffers from very high false negatives (meaning people who test negative for the virus have a 20-30% chance of actually having it) and very low false positives, while the antibody test is the opposite: it has a high false positive rate (due mostly to low seroprevalence in the population) and very low false negative rate.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-133#post-4579241

Please go back and read my post. The doctor specifically said don't get your hopes up on a positive test. Most come back as falsely negeitve. I specifically said most negative tests are flawed.

 

[Greg2020]

We have to be counting deaths differently than even say NY. Our death rate has continued to stay in the average 30's while NY has dipped way below that with even more cases being reported sometimes twice or three times more.

Hell yesterday 50 and today 71 yet go back 14 to 21 days and we only had on average around 300 new cases reported. Either our health care completely sucks or we're counting deaths differently than everyone else. I have been monitoring this specific issue for weeks and our death rate is staggering compared to others.

People can linger on ventilators for a long time. I don't know what you are talking about regarding 71 deaths in NJ. I haven't seen that any time this week. Nj.com says 53 new ones today.

 

[RU848789]

TX and CA with all-time highs today and AZ with a new high yesterday and Florida and others climbing is not good. Said we'd most likely see

Sorry, just saw this now..odd I didn't get the notification..
I'm not an anti-vaxxer. I did space out my baby's immunizations, but she was vaccinated.
I personally choose to not put unneccessary toxins into my body especially if I don't know possible side effects..
My daughter will be 16 and can make up her own mind about whether she would like to get it.
We try and live chemical free. I don't use baby powder or deodorant you buy at Rite Aid either.
I'll let y'all be the guinea pigs and then decide further down the line if need be.

Actually "chemical free" is a meaningless term, since everything is comprised of chemicals and many of the most toxic compounds on the planet are "natural." Good to hear you had your daughter vaccinated. The vaccine argument is very similar to the mask argument. Vaccines both protect the receiver from disease and others by ensuring the receiver can't then be infected and infect others, i.e., there's a social contract built in that requires greater than X% (herd immunity - that term comes from vaccines) to get a vaccine in order for the disease to be unable to spread. The anti-vaxxers have completely effed up measles, which was almost eliminated and has now been on the rise for years. Yes, there is a tiny risk with any vaccine (typically around 1 in 1,000,000 experience significant adverse effects), but there is a far greater public good if everyone is vaccinated and tens of thousands or more people don't get some horrible disease.

 

[RU848789]

So after much delay I had blood drawn today for the antibodies test. The doctor was very clear the negatives results are greatly flawed. Positives are spot on. So the % of people who test negative are completely understated by a lot! Including a fellow worker who tested and had the virus with symptoms from her husband, a doctor at a hospital, that was very sick and both tested negative for antibodies twice. They wanted to give blood to help and were rejected. If any of you really think a virus vaccination is coming soon then think again.

You (or your doc) have that backwards. The viral PCR tests suffers from very high false negatives (meaning people who test negative for the virus have a 20-30% chance of actually having it) and very low false positives, while the antibody test is the opposite: it has a high false positive rate (due mostly to low seroprevalence in the population) and very low false negative rate.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-133#post-4579241

Please go back and read my post. The doctor specifically said don't get your hopes up on a positive test. Most come back as falsely negeitve. I specifically said most negative tests are flawed.

That's not what you said in the first post. You said "positives are spot on," which is untrue, as you corrected in your 2nd post and is why your doctor said to not get your hopes up on a positive antibody test, which can lead to the very bad outcome if you think you have antibodies/immunity and stop protecting yourself/others, but actually don't have antibodies and are not immune. And you said "the negative results are greatly flawed" which is also untrue - most antibody negative tests are correct.

 

[WhiteBus]

That's not what you said in the first post. You said "positives are spot on," which is untrue, as you corrected in your 2nd post and is why your doctor said to not get your hopes up on a positive antibody test, which can lead to the very bad outcome if you think you have antibodies/immunity and stop protecting yourself/others, but actually don't have antibodies and are not immune. And you said "the negative results are greatly flawed" which is also untrue - most antibody negative tests are correct.

Bullcrap. You can never admit you are wrong. You think you are smarter, more educated in the science of medicine than a doctor at Penn Medicine?? A career doctor that gives accurate advice without an agenda which you have admitted to? Please!

 

[RU848789]

TX and CA with all-time highs in deaths today and AZ with a new high yesterday and Florida and others climbing is not good; fyi, cases in these states look to be peaking at a similar level to what we had at NJ's peak on a per capita basis. Said back in late June that we'd most likely see deaths start moving upwards starting sometime between 6/29 and 7/13 (2-4 weeks after cases started accelerating - around mid-June - in most of these S/W states, given the known lag of deaths behind cases), with a significant rise underway during the week of 7/6, i.e., this week. It looks like that has started, but it's still too early to conclude that.

Also said I thought the peak in deaths would be 1/2 to 2/3 (per capita) what was seen in NY/NJ, given the younger patient profile (lower death rates), more mild cases (more testing in place than we had) and improved medical procedures/treatments. Would be a nice surprise if the rises were even less, which is quite possible - hard to estimate death rates, though, without very good comparative data on all of these factors (age distribution, severity of illness, clear hospitalization data, and effecdtiveness of procedures/treatments) between NJ and these states. I wonder if the states have the data but haven't shared them yet. It's really not worth analyzing data like this too frequently, given fluctuations, so will likely wait for this weekend to do so.

 

[RU848789]

Haven't logged in for a while. Got tired of all the political stuff and bickering that was polluting the old thread so I stopped reading. This one seems to be going the same way, unfortunately.

Thanks for asking though! Doing OK, cases are still pretty low up here (Rochester NY area), hospitalizations/ICU/deaths way down. Have ventured out a few times (finally got a haircut after almost 6 months, whew!), couple of doctor visits, restocking at Lowes, etc. People are wearing masks, it's rare to see someone without. Haven't encountered any Karens.

Will be interesting to see how things evolve. Can we maintain the low infection rate or will we slip up and wind up where Florida, Arizona and other states are? Not sure what is going to happen with colleges. My wife teaches at a local college and they are planning to open with almost exclusively in-person classes. She has a lab class that will have a bunch of students in close quarters. Because of medical conditions, she may be able to get an exemption. Not sure bringing back students from all over the country (and other countries) is going to work out very well and faculty are feeling like they are being treated as sacrificial lambs.

I know what you mean - have debated taking a break, but keep hoping things will improve. Your contributions were excellent, though, and have been missed.

 

[Greg2020]

So after much delay I had blood drawn today for the antibodies test. The doctor was very clear the negatives results are greatly flawed. Positives are spot on. So the % of people who test negative are completely understated by a lot! Including a fellow worker who tested and had the virus with symptoms from her husband, a doctor at a hospital, that was very sick and both tested negative for antibodies twice. They wanted to give blood to help and were rejected. If any of you really think a virus vaccination is coming soon then think again.

Wrong everyone knows antibody tests find a lot more false positives than false negatives. Once again you post factually incorrect information here.

 

[Greg2020]

Bullcrap. You can never admit you are wrong. You think you are smarter, more educated in the science of medicine than a doctor at Penn Medicine?? A career doctor that gives accurate advice without an agenda which you have admitted to? Please!

@RU848789 is 100 percent right as usual. He is more patient than I am with the fake information posted in this thread constantly. Numbers you are a patient man. You see why I have gotten nasty in the past.

 

[RU848789]

Bullcrap. You can never admit you are wrong. You think you are smarter, more educated in the science of medicine than a doctor at Penn Medicine?? A career doctor that gives accurate advice without an agenda which you have admitted to? Please!

Been wrong many times, especially on the weather and have no issue with it. As a scientist, it's critical to be able to admit you're wrong in order to learn from any mistakes. But I'm not wrong here. Your doctor may have been absolutely correct, but my guess is you haven't captured what he said accurately. I guarantee you if you show him these posts, he'll tell you what you said that was wrong, just like I did. I've also never said I had any agenda, per se (you said I did, I didn't), other than to try to inform and hopefully help people make smart/safe choices in order to help spare some infections and maybe even help to indirectly save a few lives.

Also, maybe this one time you could read my linked post, which has a link to a very straightforward article explaining antibody tests and why there are many more false positives than false negatives.

 

[RocktheRac]

So after much delay I had blood drawn today for the antibodies test. The doctor was very clear the negatives results are greatly flawed. Positives are spot on. So the % of people who test negative are completely understated by a lot! Including a fellow worker who tested and had the virus with symptoms from her husband, a doctor at a hospital, that was very sick and both tested negative for antibodies twice. They wanted to give blood to help and were rejected. If any of you really think a virus vaccination is coming soon then think again.

101.5 had a town forum last night. A Doctor from Robert Wood said a vaccine may be developed by beginning of the year buy wont be manufactured and available mid year 2021.

 

[RocktheRac]

I know what you mean - have debated taking a break, but keep hoping things will improve. Your contributions were excellent, though, and have been missed.

Your ego will prevent you from taking a break lol

 

[koleszar]

People can linger on ventilators for a long time. I don't know what you are talking about regarding 71 deaths in NJ. I haven't seen that any time this week. Nj.com says 53 new ones today.

It was 64 deaths yesterday. The original number I quoted was what was reported then it was changed. O and 64 still makes us 3rd in deaths. So our patients here in NJ linger longer than other states. Do we have special ventilators compared to everyone else?

 

[King of S]

It was 64 deaths yesterday. The original number I quoted was what was reported then it was changed. O and 64 still makes us 3rd in deaths. So our patients here in NJ linger longer than other states. Do we have special ventilators compared to everyone else?

How many deaths from LTC? Also underlying medical conditions? NY State reported 98% of deaths have underlying medical issues.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Article on possible longer term neurological effects of COVID including in recovered and less severe cases. Again many things we can't know over the long term because it's just too new.

https://www.sciencealert.com/seriou...n-the-rise-and-covid-19-seems-to-be-behind-it

 

[RU23]

It was 64 deaths yesterday. The original number I quoted was what was reported then it was changed. O and 64 still makes us 3rd in deaths. So our patients here in NJ linger longer than other states. Do we have special ventilators compared to everyone else?

They don’t linger longer than other states. Think a little.

They *may* linger longer than another *state*. Aka one state, NY. Which is the only state with more older (not by age but by time) cases than us (or even nearly as many). Thus, NY is the only state you’d expect to have as many lingering deaths as us.

 

[brad1218]

That's simply wrong and impugns the reputations of your medical colleagues who were on the front lines. Most of the "presumptive" positive COVID deaths were at the height of the pandemic when some patients in the hospital, who obviously had COVID, based on symptoms, were not tested, since the test was meaningless given the symptoms and requires PPE (which was in short supply) and engenders infection risks for those taking the samples.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html

I dont know if I would say he is totally wrong. I usually side with you on most things but I have heard from friends of mine who are nurses that stuff like he is describing is absolutely happening.

 

[RutHut]

Article on airborne spread and hot-spots

https://www.startribune.com/from-el...-studies-indoor-covid-19-hot-spots/571631162/

 

[RutgHoops]

The other important fact is corporations have the right to turn furloughed workers into terminated workers and turn currently employed workers into terminated/furloughed workers if the US economy does not rebound in a meaningful way. I was speaking with two senior executives at public companies this weekend who believe this is what we will see from their organizations in the next 30-45 days. Corporate America was hoping for a better recovery from the virus.

US Household savings rate was over 23% in May after almost 33% in April. I think there are more serious economic consequences coming. I hope I am wrong.

Quoting my own post as this was one of the corporations I was speaking about in the above post. I'll post if the next one gets announced (jn the hospitality space). My thoughts are with these soon to be furloughed/laid off workers.

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

Quoting my own post as this was one of the corporations I was speaking about in the above post. I'll post if the next one gets announced (jn the hospitality space). My thoughts are with these soon to be furloughed/laid off workers.

View embedded media

Lots of really sad stories still to come, I’m sure. Going to be a tough couple of years ahead.

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

“We are encouraging health care workers to apply the best practices learned in other parts of the country to preserve and reuse those supplies.”

—Mike Pence on PPE need in the surge hospitals

Nice way of saying “we’re running short this time too”

 

[T2Kplus10]

Been wrong many times.

Agreed, but not about winter weather last year, since there wasn't any!
:)

 

[becktheory]

Been wrong many times, especially on the weather and have no issue with it. As a scientist, it's critical to be able to admit you're wrong in order to learn from any mistakes. But I'm not wrong here. Your doctor may have been absolutely correct, but my guess is you haven't captured what he said accurately. I guarantee you if you show him these posts, he'll tell you what you said that was wrong, just like I did. I've also never said I had any agenda, per se (you said I did, I didn't), other than to try to inform and hopefully help people make smart/safe choices in order to help spare some infections and maybe even help to indirectly save a few lives.

Also, maybe this one time you could read my linked post, which has a link to a very straightforward article explaining antibody tests and why there are many more false positives than false negatives.

Apologies if this has been posted previously.
Academic report.
Hydroxychloroquine as an aerosol might markedly reduce and even prevent severe clinical symptoms after SARS-CoV-2 infection


https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306987720307076

 

[TroothSkr]

#'s, do consider this one voice requesting that you please not take a break from posting. I suspect I am one voice of many in thinking this way, but I obviously can’t confirm that. Also know that your significant effort in uncovering and sharing facts is highly appreciated.

I don't always agree with everything you write (e.g., the anecdotal stuff you were called out on a couple of days ago) but it is clear that you are seeking to inform and move the dialog and knowledge forward. And you do try to post links. Please ignore the many snide commentators who hide behind their anonymized usernames. At best they are having some fun, at worst … whatever.

I expect it is clear to most participants which posters are here to learn and who are here to spew nonsense and/or spread confusion.

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

FT summed up our situation here pretty well: “Americans want to be free to be stupid.” They attribute it to a ‘frontier spirit.’

What bothers me about Americans pushing back against health authorities’ intervention in their lives, is that they will accept and expect monetary and fiscal stimulus to buffer the downside risk of their decisions. That’s not frontier spirit, it’s entitlement with a more rugged face.

I’m more and more convinced of our “have our cake and eat it too” culture spinning out of control during this crisis. Folks make individual decisions that have the effect of damaging broader public health, prolonging our economic pain, then the same people necessitate and accept stimulus to mitigate the financial pain of these decisions. Down the road the same folks will express outrage when the bill for these policies comes due in the form of higher taxes.

If we’re not going to allow for public intervention into health decisions, we shouldn’t try to float liquidity into markets to prop up the economy, or fund programs to keep businesses afloat through a crisis elongated by bad decisions. By mitigating consequences, we, as a society, are in effect rewarding risky behavior at the expense of the long term ‘health’ (in many forms) of this country.

 

[RUevolution36]

FT summed up our situation here pretty well: “Americans want to be free to be stupid.” They attribute it to a ‘frontier spirit.’

What bothers me about Americans pushing back against health authorities’ intervention in their lives, is that they will accept and expect monetary and fiscal stimulus to buffer the downside risk of their decisions. That’s not frontier spirit, it’s entitlement with a more rugged face.

I’m more and more convinced of our “have our cake and eat it too” culture spinning out of control during this crisis. Folks make individual decisions that have the effect of damaging broader public health, prolonging our economic pain, then the same people necessitate and accept stimulus to mitigate the financial pain of these decisions. Down the road the same folks will express outrage when the bill for these policies comes due in the form of higher taxes.

If we’re not going to allow for public intervention into health decisions, we shouldn’t try to float liquidity into markets to prop up the economy. By mitigating consequences, we, as a society, are in effect rewarding risky behavior at the expense of the long term ‘health’ (in many forms) of this country.

:Pray: :Praying::Pray: :Praying::Pray: :Praying::Pray: :Praying::Pray: :Praying: