COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter Richie O
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Thank you. Interesting, but I wish it told us the fatality rate for those who had no underlying health conditions. The percentages add up to way over 100% since some had multiple conditions. Also, I don't see obesity on it. They should be tracking that.
I think I agree with all your points here. The more distinction regarding the data the better. But NJ has the best board I've seen so the criticism should be relatively light.
As an aside to that. An anecdote I've heard is that low level ashtma has been noted as an underlying condition. So not all underlying conditions are serious.
Certainly some backing for the opening of schools. Though if I were a teacher, especially one over 40, I'd want to know more about the contagion level of school age children.
Ya, not that odd when I think about it.
But I guess the takeaway is VA's recent fatality increase will not hold up, nor will the recent decrease in GA and NC.
My neice is a teacher at Hatboro Horsham High School in Montgomery County. The first County in PA to be severely affected. The teachers were allowed into the high school last week. Staggered and an hour max. On the day that Gov Wolf declared a lock down, SIP order, the annoucement was made that everyone had 5 mins to leave the school and wait for buses based on the typical fire drill warning. She walked in months later and it looked like everyone was vaporizer. Backpacks in the hall way. Open lockers etc... everywhere. Very disturbing. Also said the air conditioning was cranked up. Was freezing inside. Turns out that as soon as they left their was people in full hazmat suits going in to methodically clear out each student locker and bagging them to return to each student at a later date. A week later they are only 50% done. Everything is being videoed and documented for the contents of every locker to keep people from saying something was stolen. Will this have to happen at all schools before they reopen? Very expensive.
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Not sure if factual. Depends on how you define public health experience, I guess.
Practicing emergency room physician who appears to have served as chief medical officer at two hospitals does not exactly sound like some back office bureaucrat who doesn’t know the first thing about health.
Given the studies in Europe that show that children don't spread the virus in combination with the low fatality rate for healthy people here, although we don't truly know how low, we do know it's low, I wouldn't be concerned if I was a teacher in my 40's with no health conditions. I would wear a mask as a precaution and keep my distance from the other staff. Maybe if I was over 60, I would take leave.
What's also strange is how many countries around the world saw a case spike begin between May 25th and June 8th. Even Islands like Japan, Australia, and Hawaii among others showed major growth. Some of these countries had extensive contact tracing programs that were completely overwhelmed very quickly.
Wolrdometers was incorrect. Sometimes they slightly overcount, sometimes they undercount. And no, we put too many people on ventilators for a while. We have since discovered that that should be avoided at all costs.
Numerous day camps and day cares have already had to shut down throughout the USA because kids caught the virus at them. Your claim is not accurate.
It doesn't. Viable coronavirus (able to infect others) is usually gone in <24 hours.from most surfaces and mostly gone in a few hours as the rate of deactivation is pretty high (especially outside in sunlight, where it only takes 10 minutes for most of the virus to become deactivated).
I wouldn't put much stock in NewsMax as a source, plus Kazakhstan has a history of fake news, but any report like this has to at least be investigated.
GA started its rapid case acceleration around 6/21 vs. about 6/15 to 6/17 for CA/FL/TX, so I would expect their deaths to start their rise in the next couple of days, being 4-6 days behind, roughly.
NC is a bit of an odd duck. Cases went up from end of May to mid June and then they plateaued until about 6/28 and have started spiking since then. Deaths kind of followed that loosely by 2-3 weeks with a rise in late June, but then they dropped off after the plateau, but haven't started back up again, since the latest rise only started about 10 days ago. But I'll admit those correlations are a bit sketchy.
And VA is inexplicable to me. Maybe some weirdness in testing or demographics of positive cases - maybe more older people fell ill in the last several weeks per capita vs. some other states with far more younger people? Really don't know.
Obviously, things continue to trend very badly in many southern/western states with regard to record cases in many states and another record for the US (the 6th in 10 days), as we almost had 60,000 cases today. Six states set single-day case records on Thursday: Alabama, Idaho, Missouri, Montana, Oregon and Texas. And it looks like we're starting to see deaths spike in many states, although how high they go vs. what was seen in the NE US remains to be seen (should be less, per capita by a fair amount, but not sure how much less). Also, most of the increases were in states that reopened prior to achieving CDC criteria for reopening, but the leadership in these states ignored that guidance, despite many warnings, and now the outbreak is going very badly in those locations. This graphic shows it clearly. It didn't have to be this way...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/..._BANNER&context=storylines_menu#link-2eb32eca
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/..._BANNER&context=storylines_menu#link-2eb32eca
I'm not making a claim. I'm simply citing studies that have recently come out in Europe. I'm sorry if they are not coming out with the results that you would like to see. The studies involve primary school children, not daycare centers.
Does 50% of the country have the medical issues specifically cited in the graph? Where are you getting that statistic from? Even if it were true, that doesn't change the IFR for healthy people.
Summary: 68% with antibodies in Corona, Queens and 56% in Jackson Heights - translates to IFRs of 0.73% and 0.70%, respectively...and what that means...
As of June 26, CityMD had administered about 314,000 antibody tests in New York City, with 26 percent of the tests coming back positive. This is not far off from the 21.6% of NYC residents testing positive back on 6/13 when testing was done by the State (and had 13.4% positive in all of NY). Also, like the State study, this study showed some amazing stats, including 68% testing positive for antibodies in Corona and 56% in Jackson Heights, both in Queens, while in Cobble Hill, a wealthy neighborhood in Brooklyn, only 13% tested positive. While it sucked for these places that were hit so hard, at least perhaps they're now at or close to "herd immunity" and won't see many more cases, even if there's a 2nd wave in NYC, whereas these areas with a lot less positives are much more vulnerable.
More interesting might be the overall stats on Corona, for example. That section of Queens has 112,000 people and has had 4834 cases, so far (43,320 per 1MM), twice the NY State rate and 4-5X the US rate, per capita, which isn't surprising with 68% with antibodies. In addition, Corona has seen 441 deaths or 3950 per 1MM, which is 2.5X the NY rate and almost 10X the US rate, per capita. The case fatality rate is 9.1% vs. 7.5% for NY and 4.2% for the US (was 5% a few weeks ago, but cases have increased far faster than deaths recently), but more interestingly, the infection fatality rate is 0.58% (441/89K x 0.68), which might be the most complete data set we have on a community close to herd immunity, i.e., near the endpoint of the pandemic.
I've been arguing for awhile that the eventual IFR would be 0.5-1.0%, based on the NY State IFR of 1.1% from 6/13, which was based on 30,700 dead vs. 2.68MM infected (20MM x 13.4% w/antibodies in NY) and assuming the IFR may have been a bit high in NYC due to demographics or other factors, plus the research, so far showing the likely IFR rates would be 0.5-1.0%). NY is a larger population so that might make NY's IFR more "trustworthy" but Corona's is obviously near the endpoint, which gives that data some importance too. Corona also has 78% Hispanic Americans, which have been dying at a significantly greater rate than white or Asian Americans, which could also skew the IFR a bit, possibly bringing the Corona IFR down around 0.4-0.5% if normalized to a typical ethnic demographic. For Jackson Heights (zip 11372 as per the link), the numbers translate to 253 deaths in 65K people, of which 56% have antibodies, for an IFR of 0.70%, almost identical to Corona's, but Jackson Heights has a much more diverse ethnic makeup (55% Hispanic, 18% white and 20% Asian), so the IFR depression would likely be less than Corona's would be (maybe to 0.5-0.6% (these are guesstimates).
And I have to remind people that if the IFR is 0.5-1.0% and 55-80% will become infected (using the range most epidemiologists use and not Corona's 68%), that translates to a possible 0.9-2.6 million US deaths, eventually, assuming these data can be extrapolated and assuming the absolute worst case of no good treatments, cure or vaccine, as well as no interventiions to reduce transmissions/deaths (not realistic, but good for pandemic planning). Potential numbers like this are why I feel like I've been screaming about why we're not following the path of the many countries that have case/death rates that are 50-100X less than ours, i.e., masking/distancing to reduce cases/deaths and testing, tracing, and isolating to control flare-ups (and also reduce cases/deaths) - and some of these countries have done this without lockdowns.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/nyregion/new-york-city-coronavirus-cases.html
As of June 26, CityMD had administered about 314,000 antibody tests in New York City, with 26 percent of the tests coming back positive. This is not far off from the 21.6% of NYC residents testing positive back on 6/13 when testing was done by the State (and had 13.4% positive in all of NY). Also, like the State study, this study showed some amazing stats, including 68% testing positive for antibodies in Corona and 56% in Jackson Heights, both in Queens, while in Cobble Hill, a wealthy neighborhood in Brooklyn, only 13% tested positive. While it sucked for these places that were hit so hard, at least perhaps they're now at or close to "herd immunity" and won't see many more cases, even if there's a 2nd wave in NYC, whereas these areas with a lot less positives are much more vulnerable.
More interesting might be the overall stats on Corona, for example. That section of Queens has 112,000 people and has had 4834 cases, so far (43,320 per 1MM), twice the NY State rate and 4-5X the US rate, per capita, which isn't surprising with 68% with antibodies. In addition, Corona has seen 441 deaths or 3950 per 1MM, which is 2.5X the NY rate and almost 10X the US rate, per capita. The case fatality rate is 9.1% vs. 7.5% for NY and 4.2% for the US (was 5% a few weeks ago, but cases have increased far faster than deaths recently), but more interestingly, the infection fatality rate is 0.58% (441/89K x 0.68), which might be the most complete data set we have on a community close to herd immunity, i.e., near the endpoint of the pandemic.
I've been arguing for awhile that the eventual IFR would be 0.5-1.0%, based on the NY State IFR of 1.1% from 6/13, which was based on 30,700 dead vs. 2.68MM infected (20MM x 13.4% w/antibodies in NY) and assuming the IFR may have been a bit high in NYC due to demographics or other factors, plus the research, so far showing the likely IFR rates would be 0.5-1.0%). NY is a larger population so that might make NY's IFR more "trustworthy" but Corona's is obviously near the endpoint, which gives that data some importance too. Corona also has 78% Hispanic Americans, which have been dying at a significantly greater rate than white or Asian Americans, which could also skew the IFR a bit, possibly bringing the Corona IFR down around 0.4-0.5% if normalized to a typical ethnic demographic. For Jackson Heights (zip 11372 as per the link), the numbers translate to 253 deaths in 65K people, of which 56% have antibodies, for an IFR of 0.70%, almost identical to Corona's, but Jackson Heights has a much more diverse ethnic makeup (55% Hispanic, 18% white and 20% Asian), so the IFR depression would likely be less than Corona's would be (maybe to 0.5-0.6% (these are guesstimates).
And I have to remind people that if the IFR is 0.5-1.0% and 55-80% will become infected (using the range most epidemiologists use and not Corona's 68%), that translates to a possible 0.9-2.6 million US deaths, eventually, assuming these data can be extrapolated and assuming the absolute worst case of no good treatments, cure or vaccine, as well as no interventiions to reduce transmissions/deaths (not realistic, but good for pandemic planning). Potential numbers like this are why I feel like I've been screaming about why we're not following the path of the many countries that have case/death rates that are 50-100X less than ours, i.e., masking/distancing to reduce cases/deaths and testing, tracing, and isolating to control flare-ups (and also reduce cases/deaths) - and some of these countries have done this without lockdowns.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/nyregion/new-york-city-coronavirus-cases.html
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Hundreds of millions of Americans, have heart problems, lung problems, or are obese or have asthma, or renal disease have or have had cancer, or have a developmental disability or or are over the age of 65. All of those are big risk factors.
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So are you trying to claim 3 year olds can catch the virus but 8 year olds can't ? Plenty of 8 year olds are catching it all over summer camps in the USA. The studies that came out of Europe came out of countries like Denmark and Finland that have never had serious outbreaks of Corona virus, and France which only opened school after their outbreak was under control. It is not under control here. Of course schools will be pretty safe in countries that only have like 50 new cases of virus in the whole country per day (Finland and Denmark), or a few hundred out of over 60 million like France. Israel on the other hand has had numerous breakouts in schools. I have attached for you many links regarding outbreaks involving kids of day care age, and camp age.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/texas-coronavirus-cases-child-care-facilities/index.html
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243670537.html
https://www.kgw.com/article/news/he...nter/283-ee91f570-534c-442d-9ddd-f1dcc8d4fe05
https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/h...tions/63-7ff9422f-9022-4ff9-9d2d-978a0148ec1b
https://www.denverpost.com/2020/06/...s-covid19-outbreak-eagle-lake-overnight-camp/
https://www.ktts.com/2020/07/06/kanakuk-camp-closed-after-coronavirus-outbreak/
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronav...0200709-mjm52mznmrh7xfdbq66knjjjmm-story.html
Well my friends there may be another virus similar to Corvid-19 and more deadly spreading in Kazakhstan, I hope not, Where’s Bill Gates and his wife bean recently :flush:.
Kazakhstan said it has not ruled out that those ill with the 'mystery' pneumonia could be suffering from Covid-19 but the initial tests are not showing the virus.
Kazakhstan said it has not ruled out that those ill with the 'mystery' pneumonia could be suffering from Covid-19 but the initial tests are not showing the virus.
Just heard this report announced on CNBC - Remdesivir showing 60% reduction in mortality vs standard care per Gilead.
Very nice RR for Remdesivir. I would like to see when it was dosed. I'm sure more details to come!
#gopharma.
Below link and chart are from the Texas Tribune yesterday. Chart below shows in-home deaths in Houston (not sure why the dates aren't showing in the image, they are in the link, first line is January 2019 last line is June 2020). Stay safe everyone.
"While far more people died of COVID-19 in those cities than have died so far in Houston, researchers and paramedics say that the trend of sudden at-home deaths in Texas’ largest city is concerning because it shows that the virus’ toll may be deeper than what appears in official death tallies and daily hospitalization reports."
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/08/houston-coronavirus-deaths-number/
I never made that claim. I'm merely pointing out studies in Europe. They are claiming that they don't see kids catching it or spreading it.
Comments from Gottlieb on CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/dr-scott-gottlieb-on-coronavirus-infection-levels-in-the-us.html
- Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday he believes there continues to be a significant number of unreported coronavirus cases in the U.S.
- He suggested as many as 1 in 150 people in the country could be infected.
- “We must have well over 700,000 infections a day, even though we’re only diagnosing about 60,000,” Gottlieb said on “Squawk Box.”
- When the U.S. had about 20,000 new diagnosed infections per day, Gottlieb said, about 1 in 200 people were actually believed to be infected.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/dr-scott-gottlieb-on-coronavirus-infection-levels-in-the-us.html
Quoting above from #'s:
"Summary: 68% with antibodies in Corona, Queens"
I mean it's only natural right?
"Summary: 68% with antibodies in Corona, Queens"
I mean it's only natural right?
I want to say numbers has projected something like 10x the reported cases is the true infection rate (maybe I am muddling sources). So I think if there are 3M cases they think like 30+M have actually had the infection? So maybe upwards of 10-11% of the population ? Also..1 in 150 is "only" 2m cases so not sure how that works.
I forget the exact numbers/ sources... will have time a little later to look.
Be careful, as the press release is a bit misleading if not paying close attention - it's worded very badly. The mortality reduction was on reanalysis of the data from the retrospective, observational clinical trial, not from a controlled, randomized trial, so take the reduction with a large grain of salt. At least they included the qualifier that this is "an important finding that requires confirmation in prospective clinical trials." It should say in prospective randomized, controlled clinical trials.
The data are being presented at the Virtual COVID-19 Conference as part of the 23rd International AIDS Conference (AIDS 2020: Virtual) and include a comparative analysis of the Phase 3 SIMPLE-Severe trial and a real-world retrospective cohort of patients with severe COVID-19. In this analysis, remdesivir was associated with an improvement in clinical recovery and a 62 percent reduction in the risk of mortality compared with standard of care – an important finding that requires confirmation in prospective clinical trials.
http://investors.gilead.com/news-re...nts-additional-data-investigational-antiviral
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