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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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Just to get myself more worked up, I looked at pictures of the ‘anti-mask’ protesters in Texas who had signs saying ‘my body, my choice’ with a red line through a drawing of a mask. Or, more ironically, “this is not a communist country.”

Texas was a top-five recipient of PPP. How many of these anti-government protesters are either directly or indirectly through their employer on the dole? (not just small businesses — government aid is floating jobs at Texas-based American Airlines, and many others who have issued debt into capital markets backstopped by the Fed) How many of these people complain about Fed stimulus propping up their portfolios?

Lots of petulant children who want their allowance, but don’t want mommy and daddy telling them what to do.
 
Just to get myself more worked up, I looked at pictures of the ‘anti-mask’ protesters in Texas who had signs saying ‘my body, my choice’ with a red line through a drawing of a mask. Or, more ironically, “this is not a communist country.”

Texas was a top-five recipient of PPP. How many of these anti-government protesters are either directly or indirectly through their employer on the dole? (not just small businesses — government aid is floating jobs at Texas-based American Airlines, and many others who have issued debt into capital markets backstopped by the Fed) How many of these people complain about Fed stimulus propping up their portfolios?

Lots of petulant children who want their allowance, but don’t want mommy and daddy telling them what to do.
at the risk of getting too political...my body, my choice apparently only applies to masks, but not abortion?
 
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at the risk of getting too political...my body, my choice apparently only applies to masks, but not abortion?

I’m sure they’re trying to say hypocrisy goes the other way. Pro-choice only applies to abortion?

But yeah otherwise not touching this one haha
 
I agree that we should do everything we can to have kids in schools come this fall, at least for part of the time, via some combo of in-person (with more distancing, which likely means less students per physical classroom) and remote learning, since I'm not sure masks are going to work that well for kids (compliance). However, the head of the APA which recommended schools reopen, backtracked a bit on that today, saying schools might not want to do that where cases are surging. This isn't a kids issue, but a teachers/staff/parents issue.

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...oup-says?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=national

As I said months ago, I would've put all the kids in quarantine for 3 weeks with young, low risk teachers to get them all infected so they wouldn't be vectors in the future, but that wasn't going to happen. The problem still remains what to do about the risks to teachers/staff and, of course, families/parents? If I had a kid in school I'd basically quarantine them in the house (wearing masks and no touching/hugging) for the first 3 weeks of school, assuming they'd get it in the first 10 days and no longer be infectious after 10 more days (14 days is a little overdone, IMO).

This isn't overtly political, per se, but it's a problem when the Secretary of Health and Human Services is either incredibly misinformed or is actively spreading disinformation. At the National Dialogue on Safely Reopening Schools, Azar said health care workers don't get infected because they take precautions, which is a load of crap. I'd like to see schools reopen too, but it has to be an honest discussion considering the relative risks. He says this at the 53:30 mark in the video in the link below.

https://truthout.org/articles/trump...lWBsgD7ftpSaf-iVM5qtYesoUUlIEZuH-cd6F8xCswdzQ

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar on Tuesday falsely claimed that healthcare workers “don’t get infected” with Covid-19 “because they take appropriate precautions” as he attempted to make the case for reopening schools in the fall — even with coronavirus cases surging across the United States.

“There’s no reason we can’t do any of this,” Azar, a former pharmaceutical lobbyist and executive, said during an event at the White House. “We have healthcare settings. We have healthcare workers, they don’t get infected because they take appropriate precautions. They engage in social distancing, they wear facial covering, they use good personal hygiene. This can work, you can do all of this. There’s no reason schools have to be in any way any different.”

In addition to noting that Azar’s claim about healthcare workers not getting infected is wildly false — according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 94,000 healthcare workers have contracted Covid-19 and at least 500 have died — medical professionals rejected the argument that precautionary measures taken in healthcare settings can easily be replicated in the nation’s schools.
 
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119 deaths out of Florida today. Previous high was 83 in late-April.
Double the high from last week.

Doubt it is the peak.

We knew cases and deaths were going to increase with openings, so we were willing to accept a higher level of fatalities. But is this an acceptable level? Florida is a big state, so maybe it is. If it is, how much more is acceptable? At what point do you have to say, we need to change something in a significant way to bring the numbers down.
 
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This isn't overtly political, per se, but it's a problem when the Secretary of Health and Human Services is either incredibly misinformed or is actively spreading disinformation. At the National Dialogue on Safely Reopening Schools, Azar said health care workers don't get infected because they take precautions, which is a load of crap. I'd like to see schools reopen too, but it has to be an honest discussion considering the relative risks. He says this at the 53:30 mark in the video in the link below.

https://truthout.org/articles/trump...lWBsgD7ftpSaf-iVM5qtYesoUUlIEZuH-cd6F8xCswdzQ

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar on Tuesday falsely claimed that healthcare workers “don’t get infected” with Covid-19 “because they take appropriate precautions” as he attempted to make the case for reopening schools in the fall — even with coronavirus cases surging across the United States.

“There’s no reason we can’t do any of this,” Azar, a former pharmaceutical lobbyist and executive, said during an event at the White House. “We have healthcare settings. We have healthcare workers, they don’t get infected because they take appropriate precautions. They engage in social distancing, they wear facial covering, they use good personal hygiene. This can work, you can do all of this. There’s no reason schools have to be in any way any different.”

In addition to noting that Azar’s claim about healthcare workers not getting infected is wildly false — according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 94,000 healthcare workers have contracted Covid-19 and at least 500 have died — medical professionals rejected the argument that precautionary measures taken in healthcare settings can easily be replicated in the nation’s schools.

I agree, let's have an honest discussion. Schools have reopened in Europe, so we can look at what's happening there. Denmark the first one to do so and now it looks like it hasn't led to any increase in infections. The Finland study is showing the same results as the French study which is that not only do children not get the virus, they don't spread it. Here's the study on Denmark.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-not-worsen-outbreak-data-shows-idUSKBN2341N7
 
Double the high from last week.

Doubt it is the peak.

We knew cases and deaths were going to increase with openings, so we were willing to accept a higher level of fatalities. But is this an acceptable level? Florida is a big state, so maybe it is. If it is, how much more is acceptable? At what point do you have to say, we need to change something in a significant way to bring the numbers down.

Just wait until September when Americans are watching overseas sporting events with fans cheering in the stands...while many of our sports teams are completely grounded.

Sadly that might lead to more frustration with our broad national incompetence than death tolls.
 
Horribly misleading headline and post, plus we've talked about this for weeks (your "story" is from 5/26). CDC is way on the low end of infection fatality rate estimates, at 0.25% including asymptomatics, vs. 0.5-1.0% being predicted/modeled by most and they recently said 10 infections per case is likely, which would mean an IFR of 0.5%, given the US case fatality ratio of 5%, so I assume they'll up that estimate formally soon. Right now, the 1.1% in NY is the only actual IFR we have, since it's the only state with antibody testing. Also, even at 0.25% IFR, for 330MM at 55-80% infected (if cross-reactivity doesn't limit that, which it might), that's about 350-700K US deaths, assuming 140-260MM infected. That's why the headline is misleading. Much more in the post below.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-189#post-4613691
 

That headline doesn’t jive with the underlying CDC report linked in the article. “Confirms” is not this: “This Scenario represents a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States, with the same caveat: that the parameter values will change as more data become available.“

Anyways, broad question about trying establish a death rate, maybe @RU848789 has given this some thought: if severity appears to be be correlated with viral load, is there any value to an overall fatality rate?

In other words (using an extreme scenario): odds are in your favor that you’ll survive a plane accident, because most plane accidents consist of the jet blowing a tire and rolling off the runway. However, if your plane accident involves falling out of the sky, then you’ll find the odds are no longer helpful in thinking about your situation.

Edit: I foresee someone misunderstanding and saying “we learn to live with the risk of flying because the deadliest events are rare.” Not my point: understanding the devastating risk of those rare events, rather than just focusing on the broader risk of flying, have caused us to invest enormous resources into flight safety regulation (thereby even further reducing the risk of death). The lesson here: instead of trying to focus on an overall death rate, maybe we should focus on reducing the most dangerous and deadly exposures — seemingly heavy transfers of viral load
 
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A reasonable explanation of the various factors that enter into the decision on whether or not to open schools in the Fall.

The title is "I'm an epidemiologist and a dad. Here's why I think schools should reopen" but it isn't an entirely one-sided point of view. The author is Dr. Benjamin P. Linas who is an associate professor of epidemiology and an infectious disease physician at Boston University School of Medicine.

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/9/213185...-testing-children-schools-reopening-questions
 
I’m not trying to be a wise ass here but this is not rocket science, the people getting sick now are mostly under the age of 45 which means less likely to be fatal, could it be fatal or life changing health wise, very much so. The fatality numbers will naturally be down and all they have to do is shelter in place people of say 58 plus, amount of time I’m not sure but one thing I do know is the younger people unknowingly are most likely to spread the virus to parents and grandparents and the cycle continues.
 
Glad to hear he is doing well. Good to hear first hand accounts. Thanks for posting. If it's not too much trouble, would you mind asking him if his headache was in the front of his head, near the base of the skull near the neck, or everywhere. Thank you.
For some reason I think he said top front but not 100% certain on that. I know when my wife saw him come out of hospital and walked with his wife a week later it was the 1st time he made it more than the end of his street which is about 150ft. I'm a block and a half away from them....she did not recognize him he looked real old. He looked pretty damn good when I saw him Friday. Orginally we thought he hot it at gym he went until the 15th or 16th. But he now thinks he hot it from his son who had the antibodies but may have been asymptomatic. We were very nervous we were at St Patty's parade with then and we car pool our daughters to hoops practices so we are feeling pretty fortunate we did not get. We practiced right up to the 18th of March
 
For some reason I think he said top front but not 100% certain on that. I know when my wife saw him come out of hospital and walked with his wife a week later it was the 1st time he made it more than the end of his street which is about 150ft. I'm a block and a half away from them....she did not recognize him he looked real old. He looked pretty damn good when I saw him Friday. Orginally we thought he hot it at gym he went until the 15th or 16th. But he now thinks he hot it from his son who had the antibodies but may have been asymptomatic. We were very nervous we were at St Patty's parade with then and we car pool our daughters to hoops practices so we are feeling pretty fortunate we did not get. We practiced right up to the 18th of March
Now my next door neighbor was very incoherent and confused, had really bad back pain, real bad chills and shortness if breadth but dont think the fever was that bad. But he told me definitely confused based on not enough O2 reaching his brain from the breathing. He"s just about 100% right now. He thinks the hydrochloroquin was what spared him. Does not think the remdesivir did anything for him
 
That headline doesn’t jive with the underlying CDC report linked in the article. “Confirms” is not this: “This Scenario represents a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States, with the same caveat: that the parameter values will change as more data become available.“

Anyways, broad question about trying establish a death rate, maybe @RU848789 has given this some thought: if severity appears to be be correlated with viral load, is there any value to an overall fatality rate?

In other words (using an extreme scenario): odds are in your favor that you’ll survive a plane accident, because most plane accidents consist of the jet blowing a tire and rolling off the runway. However, if your plane accident involves falling out of the sky, then you’ll find the odds are no longer helpful in thinking about your situation.

Edit: I foresee someone misunderstanding and saying “we learn to live with the risk of flying because the deadliest events are rare.” Not my point: understanding the devastating risk of those rare events, rather than just focusing on the broader risk of flying, have caused us to invest enormous resources into flight safety regulation (thereby even further reducing the risk of death). The lesson here: instead of trying to focus on an overall death rate, maybe we should focus on reducing the most dangerous and deadly exposures — seemingly heavy transfers of viral load

Here's the problem. You're absolutely right that dose matters, as do 20 other variables that are impossible to measure (unethical to experiment on people with the virus) and difficult to estimate: dose concentration, dose time, total dose exposed to, then dose received, since some removal occurs in the mucus membranes and then we move to possible interventions that affect that dose, like masks for the infected and receiver and what type of mask and how worn and then human variables like level of immunity to the dose received and impact of that dose given underlying conditions and quality of care. And that's just a start.

And we can barely even agree on or measure, well, infections, so far, given errors in antibody tests, along with antibody decline in some, post recovery, and we also don't even know yet if there is some built-in immunity based on T-cell cross reactivity, which wouldn't be captured by antibody testing. But it's doubtful we'll ever have a T-cell test for more than hundreds (it's far more complex than measuring antibodies), which could be ok for population sampling, but not available to tell people if they might be immune.

So, for now, to measure IFR, we're stuck with antibody sampling of populations and reported deaths (and people challenge even that number) and even though it's really a range, that range encompasses potentially hundreds of thousands or more US deaths, which ought to be enough to drive policy and interventions to prevent those deaths. Ought to be, but it hasn't, as our government seems content, as do many people, with "accepting" our very high death (and serious illness) levels, rather than masking up/distancing to achieve the death rates in many other countries, which are 1/50th to 1/100th of ours. The sad thing is that's all we really need to do to greatly reduce cases, hospitalizations and deaths (along with testing/tracing/isolating inevitable flare-ups) to your point of reducing the worst exposures (people to people transmissions).
 
They estimated a fatality rate of 0.25% last month. That seems reasonable and what the data is pointing to.
No it's not reasonable, as it's at the very low end of most estimates. Also, from here on out, any IFR will likely no longer by the "inherent" IFR we saw in the first wave before we had improved procedures/treatments, i.e., the IFR will probably drop by 50% or more over the next few months and further once engineered antibodies come out. The CDC's estimate was on the inherent IFR. So we'll have the first wave IFR, the June-Sept IFR and then an IFR after that, plus some overall global IFR for the entire pandemic, complicating analysis further.
 
They estimated a fatality rate of 0.25% last month. That seems reasonable and what the data is pointing to.

The dose dependence thing is very important here from both policy and personal perspectives; and why I asked about it above.

If 0.25% overall is the rate, and even less for healthy young people, I can feel pretty confident walking around and taking some basic precautions so as not to infect others. But if heavy dose increases that number substantially, could teachers in a room full of young children essentially be as exposed as healthcare workers were early in this crisis (hit by high doses for long periods), and then end up dying at a disproportionate rate?

Based on #’s reply, seems there are a lot of variables that we don’t really understand at this time — concentration, duration, not to mention some confusion about the role kids play, but these variables could seriously impact a lot of decisions.

On a personal level— If my personal chances of death are .00001 with some casual exposure, but .01 if I sit at a bar chatting at close range with an asymptomatic, but sick, friend for two hours, I will adapt my lifestyle accordingly (could easily flip the scenario, and I’m the sick one unwittingly exposing a friend or loved one to a heavy dose).
 
The dose dependence thing is very important here from both policy and personal perspectives; and why I asked about it above.

If 0.25% overall is the rate, and even less for healthy young people, I can feel pretty confident walking around and taking some basic precautions so as not to infect others. But if heavy dose increases that number substantially, could teachers in a room full of young children essentially be as exposed as healthcare workers were early in this crisis (hit by high doses for long periods), and then end up dying at a disproportionate rate?

Based on #’s reply, seems there are a lot of variables that we don’t really understand at this time — concentration, duration, not to mention some confusion about the role kids play, but these variables could seriously impact a lot of decisions.

On a personal level— If my personal chances of death are .00001 with some casual exposure, but .01 if I sit at a bar chatting at close range with an asymptomatic, but sick, friend for two hours, I will adapt my lifestyle accordingly (could easily flip the scenario, and I’m the sick one unwittingly exposing a friend or loved one to a heavy dose).
The CDC understands those variables much more than anyone here and the MSM "docs". They have all of the data. I trust them on this reasonable analysis. It was good to see the CDC breaking out numbers by age. I would like to see this done for those with risk factors as well.

Good job CDC.
:ThumbsUp
 
The CDC understands those variables much more than anyone here and the MSM "docs". They have all of the data. I trust them on this reasonable analysis. It was good to see the CDC breaking out numbers by age. I would like to see this done for those with risk factors as well.

Good job CDC.
:ThumbsUp

I would like to see breaking out the numbers by underlying health problems as well. Is this being looked at all? If not? Why not? Knowing these numbers would be really important. Once in a while, you hear about someone young dying from this, but they never say anything about their health. I don't know, maybe it's a privacy thing.
 
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I would like to see breaking out the numbers by underlying health problems as well. Is this being looked at all? If not? Why not? Knowing these numbers would be really important. Once in a while, you hear about someone young dying from this, but they never say anything about their health. I don't know, maybe it's a privacy thing.
The only concrete thing I have seen has been about obesity:

4 times greater risk of serious complications and death for those obese
6 times greater for those with morbidly obese

I will try to find the article and post it.
 
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CA currently at 124 deaths reported, which is a bad # to begin with, but given it's 6:30 makes it even worse. Will likely approach 200 by the time all the totals are in.

(Edit: 138 at 8:53. Looks like the #'s got in early today and the total will not approach 200.)

Yes we do need to factor in that they are the largest state in the Union. Still not good.
 
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I would like to see breaking out the numbers by underlying health problems as well. Is this being looked at all? If not? Why not? Knowing these numbers would be really important. Once in a while, you hear about someone young dying from this, but they never say anything about their health. I don't know, maybe it's a privacy thing.
NJ's dashboard does.

I haven't noticed it on other states boards, but I haven't actually looked for it either.
 
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Noting how low the IFR is(if it is indeed very low) doesn't mean a whole lot when this thing is going to kill hundreds of thousands of people in this country.
 
Looking at the stats, really feels like April all over again.

How are NJ deaths still so high and why are we so different from NY? You’d think our deaths would be similar.
 
Now my next door neighbor was very incoherent and confused, had really bad back pain, real bad chills and shortness if breadth but dont think the fever was that bad. But he told me definitely confused based on not enough O2 reaching his brain from the breathing. He"s just about 100% right now. He thinks the hydrochloroquin was what spared him. Does not think the remdesivir did anything for him
Same with me. I had fever and breathing issues for 2 weeks - lost 10 pounds in that time and getting weaker. By the 3rd day of taking the HQC, everything turned for the better - fever gone and breathing easier. Maybe the virus had just run it's course but I'm convinced it helped.
 
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I would like to see breaking out the numbers by underlying health problems as well. Is this being looked at all? If not? Why not? Knowing these numbers would be really important. Once in a while, you hear about someone young dying from this, but they never say anything about their health. I don't know, maybe it's a privacy thing.
98% underlying medical issues in NY State.
 
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