COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[TroothSkr]

Mass transportation is ground zero for corona infections. If/when this starts up again, look for cases to spike.

@T2K, I too would absolutely believe this.

But I am deeply puzzled by the fact that this is totally NOT the case in either Tokyo/Japan or Seoul/S. Korea. Their mass transportation is at least as population dense as NYC. I am therefore left to believe that it must be mask wearing that makes this amazing impact.

I have also considered that it could be (a) a different virus strain (b) different sub populations (genetic/ethnic), or whatever else.

But all of these I put at a much lower probability than the simple remedy of proper mask wearing.

Separately, I noted the back and forth on masks versus distancing and the false question on which ONE should it be. It never made sense to me that the answer needed to be just one of these two. But, gun to my head (and only in such a scenario!), I'd go with masks. Especially so because of the Japanese/Korean experience.

That is why I believe what you are saying. If we don't wear masks (properly as @WhiteBus often reminds us), then your prediction will unfortunately come true.

 

[RobertG]

VERY divisive post (2nd paragraph).

And the theoretical concept of "any uptick from protester case increases were offset by more distancing among non-protesters" falls apart when you take into account that people (non-protesters and protesters alike) were social distancing before the protests, meaning there was no "more distancing" that occured. You may agree with the protesters cause, but you simply can not deny that the protests themselves were likely to have caused an increase in transmissions of the virus. Any other conclusion is just wishful thinking.

I think we need to really stop ourselves in making this a R vs D issue. The recent upsurge in cases across the US has been primarily cause by an uptick in cases among the young. Even here in NJ we are seeing that this is the case.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...-as-outbreak-slows-health-officials-warn.html

 

[rutgersguy1]

I think we need to really stop ourselves in making this a R vs D issue. The recent upsurge in cases across the US has been primarily cause by an uptick in cases among the young. Even here in NJ we are seeing that this is the case.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...-as-outbreak-slows-health-officials-warn.html

Piggybacking on that....study saying 1 in 3 young adults (18-25) are vulnerable to having a severe COVID infection should they get it with smoking and genetic factors being issues. I guess so much for that French thing awhile back that nicotine/smoking or what not was protective.

https://www.businessinsider.com/young-adults-teens-severe-coronavirus-cases-smoking-genetics-2020-7

 

[bac2therac]

Long Island is Trump territory lol. Self-own

Um not that part..duh

 

[okieKnight908]

We have videos..stop blaming one side. We are seeing this behavior all over from nj to cali and in between...bur narrative you must cling to

Only one side politicized masks. Period.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/tru...virus-masks-to-signal-disapproval-of-him.html

There are receipts.

 

[T2Kplus10]

@T2K, I too would absolutely believe this.

But I am deeply puzzled by the fact that this is totally NOT the case in either Tokyo/Japan or Seoul/S. Korea. Their mass transportation is at least as population dense as NYC. I am therefore left to believe that it must be mask wearing that makes this amazing impact.

I have also considered that it could be (a) a different virus strain (b) different sub populations (genetic/ethnic), or whatever else.

But all of these I put at a much lower probability than the simple remedy of proper mask wearing.

Separately, I noted the back and forth on masks versus distancing and the false question on which ONE should it be. It never made sense to me that the answer needed to be just one of these two. But, gun to my head (and only in such a scenario!), I'd go with masks. Especially so because of the Japanese/Korean experience.

That is why I believe what you are saying. If we don't wear masks (properly as @WhiteBus often reminds us), then your prediction will unfortunately come true.

Mass transportation was shut down and there are minimal cases in those countries now. Apples and oranges vs NYC and the US in general.

 

[RU-05]

lets stop with the stupid narrative that protests didnt cause more cases and its only red state republicans not wearing the masks and spreading the virus.

its across partylines..that much is very clear.

View embedded media

I think this is very fair, but the converse of this, those pointing to protests as THE cause of the surges in those states, are also pushing a false narrative.

I think the science is still behind the idea that no masks in an indoor environment is the prime breeding ground for covid, thus the opening of bars in certain states is a very obvious driver of the surges we have seen there, but I won't argue that large gatherings of people in an outdoor environment, even if half are wearing masks, wouldn't be a driver.

 

[RUevolution36]

@T2K, I too would absolutely believe this.

But I am deeply puzzled by the fact that this is totally NOT the case in either Tokyo/Japan or Seoul/S. Korea. Their mass transportation is at least as population dense as NYC. I am therefore left to believe that it must be mask wearing that makes this amazing impact.

I have also considered that it could be (a) a different virus strain (b) different sub populations (genetic/ethnic), or whatever else.

But all of these I put at a much lower probability than the simple remedy of proper mask wearing.

Separately, I noted the back and forth on masks versus distancing and the false question on which ONE should it be. It never made sense to me that the answer needed to be just one of these two. But, gun to my head (and only in such a scenario!), I'd go with masks. Especially so because of the Japanese/Korean experience.

That is why I believe what you are saying. If we don't wear masks (properly as @WhiteBus often reminds us), then your prediction will unfortunately come true.

It's the fact that they have a lower rate of infection... plus the masks to try minimize the remaining risk. It all works together. If people would just stop focusing on one intervention or another, it's pretty clear to see that everything that has been talked about needs to work in concert with each other. Testing needed to identify infections. Need to quarantine to limit spread. Need to contact trace to limit secondary spread. Need to socially distance when things calm down in hot spots. Need to wear masks when not distanced. When people are able to see beyond the politics and rhetoric, it's simple logic. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the case.

 

[RU-05]

‪A few key stats today as we are facing COVID-19 in Houston‬

‪Daily hospital growth rate is just .2% down from 5.2%, just a week ago ‬

‪We are still in “Phase 2” of our ICU surge capacity plan. ‬

‪Just 9% of our Phase 2 capacity is full‬

‪Phase 3 is not expected in the next two weeks‬

—

‪This means the hospitals can surge another 842 beds -- at minimum-- if needed. It is worth noting that hospitals regularly operate at 95% ICU capacity this time of year.‬

—

‪Texas still has one of the lowest death rates in the entire country. Our case fatality rate is just 1.23%‬

‪New York has 10x the COVID-19 deaths of Texas. 164 deaths per 100,000 vs 11 deaths per 100,000‬

‪CA’s spike in cases is as bad as Texas, even though their lockdown was longer‬

—

‪We CANNOT lock down again as we look for solutions to combat this public health crisis.‬

‪We should continue to strengthen our health care system so that it can continue to handle the uptick in cases.‬

‪And we can take personal precautions like wearing masks and social distancing.‬

—

‪All of this will help prevent us from making the critical mistake of locking down again. The economic, educational, and other public health impacts of lockdowns are unacceptable.‬

‪Texans are stepping up to confront this challenge together. We can do this.‬

When people point to death rates as a success story when that curve is trailing a spike in cases, are they being purposely dishonest? Or do they still not get it?

 

[bac2therac]

Only one side politicized masks. Period.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/tru...virus-masks-to-signal-disapproval-of-him.html

There are receipts.

Wrong

 

[RU-05]

Wrong

We need to get past the political aspect of the virus in general, and the masks specifically.

The story on masks right now is, wear them.

 

[Tango Two]

FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Hospitals confirm mistakes in Florida’s COVID-19 report


...How could that be? FOX 35 News investigated these astronomical numbers, contacting every local location mentioned in the report.

The report showed that Orlando Health had a 98 percent positivity rate. However, when FOX 35 News contacted the hospital, they confirmed errors in the report. Orlando Health's positivity rate is only 9.4 percent, not 98 percent as in the report.

The report also showed that the Orlando Veteran’s Medical Center had a positivity rate of 76 percent. A spokesperson for the VA told FOX 35 News on Tuesday that this does not reflect their numbers and that the positivity rate for the center is actually 6 percent.

FOX 35 News has yet to hear from the other labs or the Florida Department of Health to explain how the error could have been made on an official report.


More Here:
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/f...-confirm-mistakes-in-floridas-covid-19-report

 

[RUevolution36]

FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Hospitals confirm mistakes in Florida’s COVID-19 report


How could that be? FOX 35 News investigated these astronomical numbers, contacting every local location mentioned in the report.

The report showed that Orlando Health had a 98 percent positivity rate. However, when FOX 35 News contacted the hospital, they confirmed errors in the report. Orlando Health's positivity rate is only 9.4 percent, not 98 percent as in the report.

The report also showed that the Orlando Veteran’s Medical Center had a positivity rate of 76 percent. A spokesperson for the VA told FOX 35 News on Tuesday that this does not reflect their numbers and that the positivity rate for the center is actually 6 percent.

FOX 35 News has yet to hear from the other labs or the Florida Department of Health to explain how the error could have been made on an official report.


More Here:
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/f...-confirm-mistakes-in-floridas-covid-19-report

Florida's accounting is just as credible as China's right now, imo.

 

[becktheory]

FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Hospitals confirm mistakes in Florida’s COVID-19 report


How could that be? FOX 35 News investigated these astronomical numbers, contacting every local location mentioned in the report.

The report showed that Orlando Health had a 98 percent positivity rate. However, when FOX 35 News contacted the hospital, they confirmed errors in the report. Orlando Health's positivity rate is only 9.4 percent, not 98 percent as in the report.

The report also showed that the Orlando Veteran’s Medical Center had a positivity rate of 76 percent. A spokesperson for the VA told FOX 35 News on Tuesday that this does not reflect their numbers and that the positivity rate for the center is actually 6 percent.

FOX 35 News has yet to hear from the other labs or the Florida Department of Health to explain how the error could have been made on an official report.


More Here:
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/f...-confirm-mistakes-in-floridas-covid-19-report

Important to have independent oversight. I think we all can agree that Florida should have released the detailed hospitalization rates a long time ago.

 

[RUPete]

I think we need to really stop ourselves in making this a R vs D issue. The recent upsurge in cases across the US has been primarily cause by an uptick in cases among the young. Even here in NJ we are seeing that this is the case.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...-as-outbreak-slows-health-officials-warn.html

The young want to be young and live. Let's face it, you think you're pretty invincible at a young age. But as another poster pointed out, even the young need to be careful if they have other risk factors or underlying conditions such as diabetes. Just saw a profile of a 27-year-old who nearly died. She was diabetic and contracted the virus.

 

[Source]

Things Couldn't Get Worse..... Right?

Squirrel Tests Positive for Bubonic Plague in Colorado
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/a-s...itive-for-the-bubonic-plague-in-colorado.html

 

[RUevolution36]

Things Couldn't Get Worse..... Right?

Squirrel Tests Positive for Bubonic Plague in Colorado
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/a-s...itive-for-the-bubonic-plague-in-colorado.html

I thought it was common knowledge that squirrels can carry plague?

 

[RutgHoops]

Florida's accounting is just as credible as China's right now, imo.

I don't think Florida's numbers are any more off than NY and/or NJ. Hospital workers, who are getting crushed right now in States seeing surges, simply aren't going to be 100% accurate with their numbers. It's just the way it is. I do believe they are apples to apples across States in the US.

Deaths lag. Florida 132 deaths today. Highest ever. 7 day dma is 72 and rising (doesn't include today's tally). Was 48 a week ago. Arizona 95 deaths today. 7 day dma is 62 and rising (doesn't include today's tally). Was 32 a week ago.
California 7 day dma is 93. Was 68 a week ago.

Thoughts and prayers with the healthcare workers in those States seeing these surges. The next few weeks are going to be rough (or longer for those States that don't follow CA's lead on rolling back reopening).

 

[RUevolution36]

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...dds-4-states-while-delaware-gets-removed.html

This is the dumbest thing so far. If you're going to do it, enforce it. Expecting people to self quarantine voluntarily for 2 weeks when they won't voluntarily wear a mask for 20 mins is ridiculous.

 

[WhiteBus]

Florida's accounting is just as credible as China's right now, imo.

NJ had its issues too.

 

[WhiteBus]

Things Couldn't Get Worse..... Right?

Squirrel Tests Positive for Bubonic Plague in Colorado
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/a-s...itive-for-the-bubonic-plague-in-colorado.html

I coworker was just telling me that. My first thought was why would anyone randomly test a squirrel? Sounds a bit nuts to me!

 

[RU-05]

I coworker was just telling me that. My first thought was why would anyone randomly test a squirrel? Sounds a bit nuts to me!

Oh you.

 

[RU-05]

I don't think Florida's numbers are any more off than NY and/or NJ. Hospital workers, who are getting crushed right now in States seeing surges, simply aren't going to be 100% accurate with their numbers. It's just the way it is. I do believe they are apples to apples across States in the US.

Deaths lag. Florida 132 deaths today. Highest ever. 7 day dma is 72 and rising (doesn't include today's tally). Was 48 a week ago. Arizona 95 deaths today. 7 day dma is 62 and rising (doesn't include today's tally). Was 32 a week ago.
California 7 day dma is 93. Was 68 a week ago.

Thoughts and prayers with the healthcare workers in those States seeing these surges. The next few weeks are going to be rough (or longer for those States that don't follow CA's lead on rolling back reopening).

Ya if you look at Johns Hopkins you'll see similar reporting in other states, where one day the tests hardly outpace the cases, then the next day the tests fly off the charts while cases remain in line with previous days.

And just about every state has reporting unevenness from weekends into weekdays.

Is that what is going on in FL? Merely a reporting anomaly that will even out over time? I don't know but that would be my original guess.

 

[RutgHoops]

Ya if you look at Johns Hopkins you'll see similar reporting in other states, where one day the tests hardly outpace the cases, then the next day the tests fly off the charts while cases remain in line with previous days.

And just about every state has reporting unevenness from weekends into weekdays.

Is that what is going on in FL? Merely a reporting anomaly that will even out over time? I don't know but that would be my original guess.

I always try to cite the 7 dma (7 day moving average) as that (imo) gives the "best picture". Typically weekends are "off" and there is a catch up on the data from weekends. Similarly if a hospital is "crushed" data entry isn't going to be top of the "to do list" so there could be a lag due to volume. That is why I believe the 7 dma gives the most accurate picture. It accounts for days that may be understated and others that may be overstated.

 

[Scarlet16E]

Florida's accounting is just as credible as China's right now, imo.

Maybe some corona virus tests had a hanging chad.

 

[mikershoein]

Dumb videos. Why don't you post facts instead of silly twitter videos?

here's a fact formerly: that video is telling the truth, it's right in front of you

 

[mikershoein]

How selfish

yah, and those gross European male bathing suits....

bunch of banana hammocks on dudes

 

[RutgHoops]

Things Couldn't Get Worse..... Right?

Squirrel Tests Positive for Bubonic Plague in Colorado
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/a-s...itive-for-the-bubonic-plague-in-colorado.html

I thought it was common knowledge that squirrels can carry plague?

If we didn't test squirrels for bubonic plague we'd have way fewer cases of squirrels with bubonic plague.

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Um not that part..duh

:Laughing:Laughing:Laughing:Laughing

 

[Akron Buck]

https://www.timesnownews.com/health...ower-risk-of-covid-19-death-says-study/621225

Are we using tocilzumab? I have seen a number of reports now it reduces death rate but see nothing on MSM about it.

I don;t even know if we are using dexamethasone here in the states

https://www.iol.co.za/capeargus/new...keep-covid-19-at-bay-in-western-cape-50908605

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

If we didn't test squirrels for bubonic plague we'd have way fewer cases of squirrels with bubonic plague.

points for wittiness....but no soup for you re: the political backhand

 

[mildone]

I agree it would be help, but that's not what you asked for. You asked for the IFR for people without any conditions. I am wondering what the benefit of knowing that is when making guidelines for prevent further infections?

I think knowing this isn't all that helpful, but knowing the IFR associated with various conditions would be helpful. One challenge here is it is likely that some conditions aren't obvious or the person may not know they have a condition(heart disease?).

Abrams, when you get a chance, send me a PM (I cannot initiate it, not being a Premium member).

 

[ArminRU]

https://www.timesnownews.com/health...ower-risk-of-covid-19-death-says-study/621225

Are we using tocilzumab? I have seen a number of reports now it reduces death rate but see nothing on MSM about it.

I don;t even know if we are using dexamethasone here in the states

https://www.iol.co.za/capeargus/new...keep-covid-19-at-bay-in-western-cape-50908605

They’ve been using both for awhile, although I think there are some questions if tocilizumab actually works.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

FWIW regarding Florida

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

If we didn't test squirrels for bubonic plague we'd have way fewer cases of squirrels with bubonic plague.

I heard the Governor of the NY squirrels at a press conference about this yesterday. He didn't seem very worried. "Excuse our arrogance as New York squirrels, I speak for the squirrel mayor also on this one, we think we have the best squirrel healthcare system on the planet right here in New York. So, when you're saying what happened in other countries versus what happened here, we don't even think it's going to be as bad as it was in other countries. We are fully coordinated, we are fully mobilized. Plenty of acorns too."

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

FWIW regarding Florida

View embedded media

oops

John Hugh "Buddy" Dyer (born August 7, 1958) is the 32nd and current mayor of Orlando, Florida, first elected in 2003. He is a member of the Florida Democratic Party. Previously he represented Orlando in the Florida State Senate for ten years, including three years when he was the Senate Democratic leader.

 

[Kbee3]

If we didn't test squirrels for bubonic plague we'd have way fewer cases of squirrels with bubonic plague.

Now THAT'S funny !

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Now THAT'S funny !

^^^^political

 

[m1ipabrams]

FWIW regarding Florida

View embedded media

Not sure this is the news you would like it to be....

Number of tests conducted in florida to date = 2.6M
Number of positive cases in florida to date = 291K

puts overall positivity rate at >10% regardless of whether specific positivity rates for certain days/labs have been mis-reported. in other words, the errors are not likely to impact overall positivity numbers very much.

 

[TroothSkr]

I have always felt that the notion of getting a vaccine identified, tested, scaled-up, and ready for use this year was wildly, improbably, optimistic.

While this statement from Merck's CEO runs the definitive risk of cuing up the conspiracy theorists ("Merck is only saying this to screw with Pfizer", or "so they can push their own technology", etc.), I agree with his sentiment of not raising undue hope. Of course we ALL WISH for a vaccine, but to expect it/pin all our hopes on one? No way. Also, I had no clue about the immunogenic properties point Ken Frazier makes below. Perhaps some more knowledgeable minds can weigh in.

COVID-19 vaccines under development are not guaranteed to work and people who say to expect a vaccine before year-end are doing a "grave disservice to the public," Merck & Co Inc's chief said, according to a Harvard Business Review report.

The potential vaccines may not have the qualities needed to be rapidly deployed in large numbers of people, Chief Executive Kenneth Frazier said in an interview published on Monday.

"If you're going to use a vaccine on billions of people, you better know what that vaccine does."

A U.S. official said Monday that drugmakers partnered with the U.S. government are on track to begin actively manufacturing a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of the summer, Reuters reported.

The Trump administration aims to produce 300 million vaccine doses by the end of 2021 though its Operation Warp Speed Program.

Some previous vaccines "not only didn't confer protection, but actually helped the virus invade the cell, because it was incomplete in terms of its immunogenic properties," Frazier said. "So we have to be very careful."