Still individual data points selected specifically to make a point. FL deaths are significantly down since May and flat since the increase in cases began.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter Richie O
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Given that FL didn't show much of a raise in new case number till early June one wouldn't expect to see a rise in fatalities till later in the month.
The fatalities graph does suggest that. But I think @wisr01 is correct that it is not conclusively.
But given that FL's case counts really didn't start to spike until mid month I fear the conclusive evidence will show itself in the weeks to come.
On the other side of concern about the incoming increase in fatalities, given the 7dma for cases has increased 10 fold month over month, if we see only a moderate increase in fatalities over the next month, even if it doubles to 70 ish per day for FL, I think that would be a good sign as to where we are in the timeline of the pandemic.
This does assume we don't seeing further dramatic increase in cases.
This does assume we don't seeing further dramatic increase in cases.
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Why do you keep moving the date for when the deaths are likely to show increases?
It was a 14 day lag.
Now you are suggesting it's over a month lag.
Meanwhile, we hear anecdotal reports that the people in the hospitals are not as sick as those a couple months ago. How about someone do a study to see if there's merit to that statement?
Soon you will be saying that deaths have a ~75 year lag from births lol
Deaths are clearly trending to new highs in Arizona, fyi.
In states like Texas and Florida, deaths appear to be trending up a bit from late-May and early-June, but aren’t at April heights. As I wrote yesterday, I’m not sure what our expectation should be relative to the early weeks / months of this crisis. It’s possible many more Floridians (for example) had the virus then vs now, but we don’t have comparable data due to changes in testing capacity.
If the tide of new cases continues to grow, then surely we should expect to see more deaths — even if the virus has weakened (which I’m not one to speculate about). Whatever the mortality rate is, if you multiply it by more people, you get more deaths.
With the info out there publicly, I think it’s irresponsible to say a tidal wave of deaths is just around the corner, and equally irresponsible to say it’s not because this time is different.
There was never a shortage of non N95 masks especially when you can make your own.
This isn't what has happened at all.
FL really started to show an increase in cases in early June. The last 2 weeks in FL there has seen an increase in fatalities. So that 2 week lag #'s add up.
The real spike in florida cases however only began about 2 weeks ago.
If you factor in home made masks, then sure, but as I work in a hardware store, I can tell you with complete certainty that there was a shortage of commercially available masks.
It did take a bit for people to get going on the home made masks though, some people were certainly hoarding masks and health care workers were definitely seeing a shortage.
It was ready for up to 500 covid patients in its first week in NY harbor.
USNS Comfort Prepared for 500 COVID-19 Patients; Crewmember Diagnosed With Virus
Nearly a week after taking on its first patient, hospital ship USNS Comfort (T-AH-20) is prepared to treat up to 500 patients infected with the COVID-19 virus, officials said Tuesday.
Comfort, berthed at Pier 90 along New York City’s Hudson River, “has 500 beds that are fully staffed and fully equipped now,” Vice Adm. Andrew Lewis said during a Pentagon press briefing. “We also have 100 (intensive care unit) beds with the same number of ventilators and we are looking to provide more, although we can’t convert anymore to ICU beds. But we are still looking to push ventilators as required if required.”
“The higher-acuity patients – trauma patients, emergency and urgent-care patients – regardless of their COVID status can be treated on the Comfort,” Lewis said.
https://news.usni.org/2020/04/07/us...d-19-patients-crewmember-diagnosed-with-virus
Gottlieb thinks the worst will be over by January.
From CNBC:
The worst of the U.S. coronavirus outbreak will end by January either with a vaccine or because enough people in the country will have already been infected and have some immunity to it, former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Thursday.
The restrictions and guidance implemented to curb the spread of the virus will not last forever, he said, urging people to practice public health precautions until the U.S. can safely return to normalcy. He added that it’s fine to socialize, but within reason and people should consider keeping “a small social circle.”
“This will be over by January one way or the other,” he said on “Squawk Box.” “Either we’ll get to a vaccine or we’ll just have spread enough it’s just going to stop spreading efficiently, so we have a short period of time to get through. We should do everything we can to preserve what we want of our way of life over that time period to just get through it.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/dr-...navirus-epidemic-will-be-over-by-january.html
From CNBC:
The worst of the U.S. coronavirus outbreak will end by January either with a vaccine or because enough people in the country will have already been infected and have some immunity to it, former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Thursday.
The restrictions and guidance implemented to curb the spread of the virus will not last forever, he said, urging people to practice public health precautions until the U.S. can safely return to normalcy. He added that it’s fine to socialize, but within reason and people should consider keeping “a small social circle.”
“This will be over by January one way or the other,” he said on “Squawk Box.” “Either we’ll get to a vaccine or we’ll just have spread enough it’s just going to stop spreading efficiently, so we have a short period of time to get through. We should do everything we can to preserve what we want of our way of life over that time period to just get through it.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/dr-...navirus-epidemic-will-be-over-by-january.html
Deaths are clearly on a different trajectory than new cases. New cases were flat for weeks, but deaths were dropping fast. Now that new cases are exploding, I think deaths will reverse its downward slope, but how much is the question. I don’t think (hope) it will be as bad as it was, but we’ll see in the next few weeks.
He hinted at some level of herd immunity later this year the other day.
But herd immunity(as opposed to the vaccine option) does require us to deal with a lot more cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
Don’t think we get anywhere close to herd immunity, especially if antibodies only work for 2-3 months.
Doesn't herd immunity assume that people would have developed persistent antibodies to ward off infection? How does this work when antibodies disappear after a few months?
I'm not sure they even thought about home made masks at first or about masks being protective for others as opposed to the wearer. A pandemic like this isn't something anyone has ever dealt with in a lifetime so first instinct about masks are the commercially made ones and also just as protection for yourself as opposed to others.
Good point. But I'm not sure the science has been settled on this either way?
I think deaths will go up but how much who knows but people are taking more precautions as a whole and awareness is there unlike at the start and we know more about it now vs then and treatments and protocols have improved so deaths hopefully shouldn't be as bad as the beginning. Maybe similarly because of all that, whatever increase in deaths may be seen (big or small) there might be longer lag compared to before because treatments have improved and doctors know more and can keep people alive longer even if they do pass.
If they work, we shouldn't have so many restrictions.
I can see indoor clubs and bars having restrictions since you can't wear masks while drinking and conversing.
Some here saying that the protestors aren't spreading CV because they are outdoors and most wear masks (not that I agree since I saw many shouting without masks) , so if that is the case, everyone should be safe outdoors in the beaches at The Shore and elsewhere.
Fireworks should not be cancelled due to CV since everyone is outdoors.
The EU showed this country how it’s done. We look like morons tbh.
EU is wayyyyyyy past their first spike.
AZ is hitting it now and it borders Mexico which is a HUGE factor.
More testing, more cases too.
Come on, stop with the silly comparisons.
Yes, you and RH do with the silly comments.
Go enjoy the sun and summer, go for a walk or something.
Well we do. EU is controlled and opening at a good pace. We are going backwards. Not much more needs to be said.
I’ll be at the beach all weekend starting today. I’ve been out and about all summer, weird comment,
COVID parties...really?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/alabama-college-students-throwing-covid-094819467.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/alabama-college-students-throwing-covid-094819467.html
The data would say otherwise
Another factor in CA, TX, AZ is the border but not many talking about it
Combine those states and you have many more daily cases than Mexico. Their data might be poor, but I think a lot of the data coming out of our country is plagued by lack of tests as well.
Given that the recent trend has stretched far beyond border states, I’m not sure the border is as convincing an argument for the surge as reopening businesses and social life with a higher than tolerable transmission rate.
If the border is an issue here, i regret that leadership in those states didn’t take it into account before crafting local policy. We’re quick to blame other countries for what goes wrong, and slow to realize that we have some agency to control the effects within our borders.
It's always been 2-4 weeks, meaning deaths mostly occur 2-4 weeks after testing positive. So what that means is any signifcant increase in deaths won't start being seen at all until at least 2 weeks after a significant rise in cases and I'd argue that the folks debating Florida's case rise are arguing over mostly relatively minor case rises until about mid-June, which is when the case rise accelerated signficantly.
Using that as a point of departure, I would expect to see deaths start to rise significantly by the end of this week and certainly by next week (but not as much as they did per capita in the NE US, as painstakingly detailed in my last couple of posts on this - given milder cases, younger patients and improvements in procedures/treatments). If we don't see a spike in deaths in Florida by sometime next week, I'll be wrong and pleasantly surprised; same for the other states, which also started spiking significantly in cases starting in mid-June (TX/CA/GA, for example; AZ spike started earlier),
Lots of questions on the level of "native immunity" in unexposed people (from cross-reactivity, presumably based on exposure to other coronaviruses), based on 50% or more of those people showing T-cells (white blood cells that kill virus-infected cells) active against SARS-CoV-2 in cell culture. Nobody knows yet what this means for whether those folks have none, some or total immunity against COVID, but it implies at least some. And these people have no measurable antibodies against COVID; same for recovering patients who "lose" their antibodies - they don't appear to "lose" these T-cells. See 2nd post in this thread - to me this is the biggest scientific question we have right now. It would obviously be a gamechanger for the evolution and possibly endpoint of this pandemic if there is built in immunity in a decent subset of the population.
CA's positivity rate is still relatively low in comparison to AZ TX and FL.
What data do you have on your border point?
27 new deaths.The ventilator TOTAL is the lowest since March.Still,the gyms are padlocked.
He keeps talking about stages.Pretty soon,a lot of people will pull a Snagglepuss and EXIT STAGE LEFT into the Free America of PA.
He keeps talking about stages.Pretty soon,a lot of people will pull a Snagglepuss and EXIT STAGE LEFT into the Free America of PA.
Where is the post about the shifting goal posts? that was golden. Are we now shifting the narrative to "those states have a border with Mexico"? or something akin to that..
He's been giving up so much ground in this debate he's now forced to go south of the border.
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