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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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RU85inFla said:
All logical and you know more than I. I am just going by her comments that it is less severe at every age yet they are getting overwhelmed now. Last we talked they had 2-3 cases. As I posted above the same hospital has 50. Maybe it was just absent in NE FL up to now. Maybe it is just less people quarantining, I have no clue.

But while I admit that only time will tell if the infection rate is higher or lower that previous and NY/NJ for comparison, the severity is less. She mentioned that none of the 50 are intubated and several are on high flow oxygen while virtually everyone was on a ventilator a month or more ago.
Click to expand...

Understood, I was just trying to clear up what is actually known vs. what you had heard, which doesn't match with the science, to date. Also, remember it's still early in Florida's accelerating outbreak, so it's possible they're seeing less severe cases right now, but some will progress to more serious illness. The other possibility is that FL is admitting less serious patients than they were in April/May. If it turns out there actually is virus weakening going on, we can all celebrate then, but it's way premature to conclude that yet.
 
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bac2therac said:
where did i mention illegal immigration in my post?

guess what I didnt, instead its to point out that how the media has a narrative to push, its the bars, its the young people at the bars spreading stuff

in reality its many things...protests obviously one of them, lapse border behavior, and yeah young people at bars too
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No sign that protests have caused an increase in Covid cases.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.la...ce-that-protests-spread-coronavirus?_amp=true
 
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More on the virus being more contagious but possibly not as severe.


New form of coronavirus spreads faster, but doesn't make people sicker, new study says

From CNN’s Maggie Fox

A global study has found clear evidence that a new form of the coronavirus has spread from Europe to the US. The new mutation makes the virus more infectious but does not seem to make people any sicker, an international team of researchers reported Thursday.

The mutation affects the spike protein — the structure the virus uses to get into the cells it infects. Now the researchers are checking to see if this affects whether the virus can be controlled by a vaccine. Current vaccines being tested mostly target the spike protein.

The study, published in the journal Cell, confirms earlier work suggesting the mutation had made the new variant of virus more common. The researchers call the new mutation G614, and they show that it has almost completely replaced the first version to spread in Europe and the US, one called D614.

“Our global tracking data show that the G614 variant in Spike has spread faster than D614,” theoretical biologist Bette Korber of Los Alamos National Laboratory and colleagues wrote in their report. “We interpret this to mean that the virus is likely to be more infectious,” they add. “Interestingly, we did not find evidence of G614 impact on disease severity.”

What this means: This could be good news, said Lawrence Young, a professor of medical oncology at the UK’s University of Warwick, who was not involved in the study. “The current work suggests that while the G614 variant may be more infectious, it is not more pathogenic. There is a hope that as SARS-CoV-2 infection spreads, the virus might become less pathogenic,” he said in a statement.

What this means: This could be good news, said Lawrence Young, a professor of medical oncology at the UK’s University of Warwick, who was not involved in the study. “The current work suggests that while the G614 variant may be more infectious, it is not more pathogenic. There is a hope that as SARS-CoV-2 infection spreads, the virus might become less pathogenic,” he said in a statement.

About the study: The team tested samples taken from patients across Europe and the US and sequenced the genomes. They compared these genome sequences to what’s been shared publicly. Comparing these sequences helped them draw a map of the spread of the two forms.

“Through March 1, 2020 the G614 variant was rare outside of Europe, but the end of March it had increased in frequency worldwide,” they wrote.

Even when the D614 form had caused widespread epidemics, in places such as Wales and Nottingham in England, as well as in Washington state, G614 took over once it appeared, they found.

“The increase in G614 frequency often continues well after stay-at-home orders are in place and past the subsequent two-week incubation period,” they added.

The new version seems to multiply faster in the upper respiratory tract — the nose, sinuses and throat – which would explain why it passes around more easily, the researchers said. But tests on 1,000 hospitalized coronavirus patients showed those infected with the new version did not fare any worse than those who caught the original strain.

Other mutations often go along with the G614 mutation, but it’s not clear what effect they have. “The earliest sequence we detected that carried all 4 mutations was sampled in Italy on Feb. 20,” they wrote. “Within days, this haplotype was sampled in many countries in Europe.

The G614 mutation can be neutralized by convalescent serum – the blood product taken from people who have recovered from a coronavirus infection, the researchers said.

“But it will be important to determine whether the D614 and G614 forms of SARS-CoV-2 are differentially sensitive to neutralization by vaccine-elicited antibodies or by antibodies produced in response to infection with either form of the virus,” they added.

More work is needed, of course, to solidify the findings and to see what the changes mean for the epidemic and for patients, the researchers said.
 
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PaKnight said:
No sign that protests have caused an increase in Covid cases.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-07-01/experts-see-little-evidence-that-protests-spread-coronavirus?_amp=true
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sure that settles it, the ny times..scuse me, the LA Times reporting that a team of economists determined...yup its debunked...not one case spread..not one


oh look here from the article....."And I would say 50% of those at the protests were wearing a face mask.”

Another factor: Many people don’t get tested unless they feel symptoms. Many protesters were young adults, who generally are less likely to get severe illness, and therefore may not have gotten tested, experts said.

And some who do get tested may still not answer all the questions they are asked by outbreak investigators.

“I know of three people who told us, ‘Yes, I was at a protest.’ That doesn’t mean there was not another 25 or more who did attend a protest and just did not share that with us,” said Dr. Mysheika Roberts, the public health commissioner for the city of Columbus, Ohio.
 
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m1ipabrams said:
Has there been significant infections in us caused by illegal immigration? Articles I have seen (Including ones linked by bac) state the issue is Americans or permanent residents returning from Mexico legally after being infected. If that is the case what supports your statement?
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It's a problem in the U.S. Southwest, not even debatable.
California's Undocumented are receiving millions in coronavirus aid
https://www.fresnobee.com/news/coronavirus/article243934412.html

COVID-19 cases at a Texas immigration detention center soared. Now, town leaders want answers.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/0...immigrant-detention-center-town-wants-answer/

Waves of illegal immigrants carrying COVID-19 are crossing the U.S.-Mexico border, likely spiking the number of cases along the southern border and also infecting agents with U.S. Customs and Border Protection, according to officials.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...-exposed-to-covid-19-several-hundred-infected
 
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bac2therac said:
sure that settles it, the ny times..scuse me, the LA Times reporting that a team of economists determined...yup its debunked...not one case spread..not one


oh look here from the article....."And I would say 50% of those at the protests were wearing a face mask.”

Another factor: Many people don’t get tested unless they feel symptoms. Many protesters were young adults, who generally are less likely to get severe illness, and therefore may not have gotten tested, experts said.

And some who do get tested may still not answer all the questions they are asked by outbreak investigators.

“I know of three people who told us, ‘Yes, I was at a protest.’ That doesn’t mean there was not another 25 or more who did attend a protest and just did not share that with us,” said Dr. Mysheika Roberts, the public health commissioner for the city of Columbus, Ohio.
Click to expand...
The last paragraph is the money line. We'll never have a reliable count, but media hacks will gaslight that there's "no evidence".
 
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bac2therac said:
sure that settles it, the ny times..scuse me, the LA Times reporting that a team of economists determined...yup its debunked...not one case spread..not one


oh look here from the article....."And I would say 50% of those at the protests were wearing a face mask.”

Another factor: Many people don’t get tested unless they feel symptoms. Many protesters were young adults, who generally are less likely to get severe illness, and therefore may not have gotten tested, experts said.

And some who do get tested may still not answer all the questions they are asked by outbreak investigators.

“I know of three people who told us, ‘Yes, I was at a protest.’ That doesn’t mean there was not another 25 or more who did attend a protest and just did not share that with us,” said Dr. Mysheika Roberts, the public health commissioner for the city of Columbus, Ohio.
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Maybe you'll believe a scientific paper on this (first link), which I discussed at length in the 2nd link. It doesn't mean there weren't some cases stemming from the protest, but what it means is the net impact of the protests (especially considering the greater distancing practiced by non-protesters during the protests) was at worst a wash and in many locations a net decrease in cases.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-199#post-4618204
 
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To help clarify some of what we’re seeing in the surge states, here’s some 7 day moving average mortality data:

FL:
top: 51 (May 8th)
bottom: 30 (May 30th)
July 1: 38 (27% increase from bottom)

TX:
top: 38 (May 5th)
bottom: 20 (June 12th)
July 1: 35 (75% increase from bottom)

AZ:
top: 36 (July 1 — 300% increase from bottom)
Previous top: 27 (May 8th)
Bottom: 12 (May 27th)

CA:
top: 82 (May 21st)
bottom: 55 (June 8th)
July 1: 62 (13% increase from bottom)
 
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Barnaby&Neill said:
To help clarify some of what we’re seeing in the surge states, here’s some 7 day moving average mortality data:

FL:
top: 51 (May 8th)
bottom: 30 (May 30th)
July 1: 38 (27% increase from bottom)

TX:
top: 38 (May 5th)
bottom: 20 (June 12th)
July 1: 35 (75% increase from bottom)

AZ:
top: 36 (July 1 — 300% increase from bottom)
Previous top: 27 (May 8th)
Bottom: 12 (May 27th)

CA:
top: 82 (May 21st)
bottom: 55 (June 8th)
July 1: 62 (13% increase from bottom)
Click to expand...

AZ had 88 deaths yesterday as per the AZ DOH...their highest total during the pandemic...

https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...ew-cases-and-deaths-break-records/5355800002/

Edit - didn't notice you were talking about 7-day moving averages. To quote Emily LaTella, never mind...
 
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bac2therac said:
where did i mention illegal immigration in my post?

guess what I didnt, instead its to point out that how the media has a narrative to push, its the bars, its the young people at the bars spreading stuff

in reality its many things...protests obviously one of them, lapse border behavior, and yeah young people at bars too
Click to expand...
Didn't mean to imply you did, I had read the links that you had helpfully provided and noted that the discussion around the border in those articles was mainly about US citizens/residents crossing back over the border to get treatments in the states vs surge in cases being caused by illegal immigration(ie buildthatwall)
 
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RU848789 said:
Maybe you'll believe a scientific paper on this (first link), which I discussed at length in the 2nd link. It doesn't mean there weren't some cases stemming from the protest, but what it means is the net impact of the protests (especially considering the greater distancing practiced by non-protesters during the protests) was at worst a wash and in many locations a net decrease in cases.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf



https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-199#post-4618204
Click to expand...

yeah okay so the big thing is that it caused other people to stay inside and that increased their social distancing which offsets anything the protesters might have spread

point remains, protesters were spreading virus, I am not concerned that because others stayed away that its possible that overall the spread of covid actually decreased...i am concerned with the fact that protesters spread virus

so again its hypocritical for the mob to say its okay to protest but not to live your life, i mean we had health official sayings its a good thing that they protested...and this was before any study ...do you realize how unscientific that is
 
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BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine said:
It's a problem in the U.S. Southwest, not even debatable.
California's Undocumented are receiving millions in coronavirus aid
https://www.fresnobee.com/news/coronavirus/article243934412.html

COVID-19 cases at a Texas immigration detention center soared. Now, town leaders want answers.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/0...immigrant-detention-center-town-wants-answer/

Waves of illegal immigrants carrying COVID-19 are crossing the U.S.-Mexico border, likely spiking the number of cases along the southern border and also infecting agents with U.S. Customs and Border Protection, according to officials.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...-exposed-to-covid-19-several-hundred-infected
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First article is about them receiving financial aid and has nothing to do with illegal border crossing contributing to spike in infections.
Second Article is from May and discusses coronavirus infections inside a detention center. Given they are in a detention center, there is limited risk they can spread to the outside community.
Third article does try to speak to the heart of the matter, so thanks for that. However, it is an opinion piece, not a news article. One of the primary sources quoted in the article is the "Center for Immigration Studies" whose stated purpose is "The Center is animated by a unique pro-immigrant, low-immigration vision which seeks fewer immigrants but a warmer welcome for those admitted."
 
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bac2therac said:
interesting

View embedded media
Click to expand...

Sorry, but the definitive randomized, standard-of-care-controlled, blinded study (the UK's Recovery Trial) has already been performed on HCQ and it showed the drug has no medical benefit, including no reduction in mortality in hospitalized patients. The study you posted about is another uncontrolled, retrospective observational study in hospitalized patients, which by definition, has far less ability to determine safety and efficacy.

Most of the retrospective studies showed no benefit, but some did, like this one, which is not unusual when there's no clinical benefit, i.e., retrospective studies will often show conflicting results when there's no benefit, due to simple lack of control of patients and variability of outcomes. In addition, just looking at this study, one large red flag is that the control group (no HCQ) had a mean age of 68 while the HCQ group had a mean age of 63 and we know age difference (even 5 years) can be significant in patient outcomes.

https://www.recoverytrial.net/files/hcq-recovery-statement-050620-final-002.pdf
https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/drug-development/Turmoil-continues-hydroxychloroquine/98/i23
 
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SIAP, but another arm of the UK's Recovery Trials was revealed a couple of days ago and, unfortunately, it showed no clinical benefit from the combo of lopinavir and ritonavir (antivirals) in a well-designed randomized, controlled, blinded trial (RCTs). These are the same folks who did the definitive study showing no HCQ benefit and the one showing significant benefit/mortality reduction from the use of dexamethasone (steroid).

First link talks about that specific trial and the second link is an interesting article in Science on how well run the suite of trials are being carried out under the "Recovery" umbrella. The WHO suite of randomized/controlled trials, under the umbrella name of "Solidarity" have yet to deliver results, probably due to bureaucracy in having it run in a host of countries. The article also talks about how little the US has accomplished with regard to well-executed RCTs, either with HCQ or with the ongoing treatments with convalescent plasma, where there has been no control group (much to my chagrin). Good read.

https://www.recoverytrial.net/news/...talised-covid-19-patients-studied-in-recovery

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...ent-why-haven-t-others-delivered-more-results
 
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bac2therac said:
yeah okay so the big thing is that it caused other people to stay inside and that increased their social distancing which offsets anything the protesters might have spread

point remains, protesters were spreading virus, I am not concerned that because others stayed away that its possible that overall the spread of covid actually decreased...i am concerned with the fact that protesters spread virus

so again its hypocritical for the mob to say its okay to protest but not to live your life, i mean we had health official sayings its a good thing that they protested...and this was before any study ...do you realize how unscientific that is
Click to expand...

We actually don't know much about whether protesters truly were spreading the virus amongst themselves, but a few reports indicate very little: "In Minnesota, an initiative that targeted demonstrators found that 1.5 percent of them tested positive. In Massachusetts, fewer than 3 percent of protesters did."

Those numbers are very low - they could've been greater elsewhere, but it's nearly certain there was not much spread in NYC, given that rates continue to go down and given very strong observational evidence of a high degree of mask-wearing. In addition, given very low rates to begin with and high rates of previous infections, the chance of encountering infected protesters was likely very low to begin with in NYC and the NE US. Furthermore, transmission rates are lower outdoors (wind dilution) and most protesters aren't packed together for long periods (like at a concert or sporting event) and we know dose over time matters to infection rates.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-protests.html
 
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RU848789 said:
We actually don't know much about whether protesters truly were spreading the virus amongst themselves, but a few reports indicate very little: "In Minnesota, an initiative that targeted demonstrators found that 1.5 percent of them tested positive. In Massachusetts, fewer than 3 percent of protesters did."

Those numbers are very low - they could've been greater elsewhere, but it's nearly certain there was not much spread in NYC, given that rates continue to go down and given very strong observational evidence of a high degree of mask-wearing. In addition, given very low rates to begin with and high rates of previous infections, the chance of encountering infected protesters was likely very low to begin with in NYC and the NE US. Furthermore, transmission rates are lower outdoors (wind dilution) and most protesters aren't packed together for long periods (like at a concert or sporting event) and we know dose over time matters to infection rates.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-protests.html
Click to expand...

any of them spreading is too much, do you think that 3% of bar attendees spreading is too much?

can have it both ways...potential is certainly there for spread and hello some places were forbidden to ask about whether they attended protests when being tested.....as the woman in the piece i posted said, not everyone will truthfully answer
 
bac2therac said:
any of them spreading is too much, do you think that 3% of bar attendees spreading is too much?

can have it both ways...potential is certainly there for spread and hello some places were forbidden to ask about whether they attended protests when being tested.....as the woman in the piece i posted said, not everyone will truthfully answer
Click to expand...

Any preventable infections are too many in my opinion and I was not happy that some protesters and many police weren't wearing masks, as I've said before. Having said that, though, the people saying the protests sparked major outbreaks are simply wrong.
 
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RU848789 said:
Any preventable infections are too many in my opinion and I was not happy that some protesters and many police weren't wearing masks, as I've said before. Having said that, though, the people saying the protests sparked major outbreaks are simply wrong.
Click to expand...
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.20143131v1.full.pdf+html

Findings: We document a country-wide increase of over 3.06 cases per day, per 100,000 population, following the onset of the protests (95%CI: 2.47–3.65), and a further increase of 1.73 cases per day, per 100,000 population, in the counties in which the protests took place (95%CI: 0.59–2.87). Relative to the week preceding the onset of the protests, this represents a 61.2% country-wide increase in COVID-19 cases, and a further 34.6% increase in the protest counties.
 
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And things keep getting worse, as the US sets another record for cases, with 57K reported by Worldometers and many states having new highs in cases and hospitalizations and small rises in deaths. US deaths are still low, but that will likely change as many states will likely start seeing death rates climb sometime next week (if not sooner) - let's just hope they don't climb as much as they did in March/April (I don't think they will, as per other posts).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/02/coronavirus-live-updates-us/

eqeChq2.png


7qcGe3P.png
 
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RU848789 said:
We actually don't know much about whether protesters truly were spreading the virus amongst themselves, but a few reports indicate very little: "In Minnesota, an initiative that targeted demonstrators found that 1.5 percent of them tested positive. In Massachusetts, fewer than 3 percent of protesters did."

Those numbers are very low - they could've been greater elsewhere, but it's nearly certain there was not much spread in NYC, given that rates continue to go down and given very strong observational evidence of a high degree of mask-wearing. In addition, given very low rates to begin with and high rates of previous infections, the chance of encountering infected protesters was likely very low to begin with in NYC and the NE US. Furthermore, transmission rates are lower outdoors (wind dilution) and most protesters aren't packed together for long periods (like at a concert or sporting event) and we know dose over time matters to infection rates.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-protests.html
Click to expand...
Yes we do. Confirmed cases in MN spiked among younger people (the demo that was protesting for weeks). Not a coincidence.
 
RU848789 said:
Any preventable infections are too many in my opinion and I was not happy that some protesters and many police weren't wearing masks, as I've said before. Having said that, though, the people saying the protests sparked major outbreaks are simply wrong.
Click to expand...


can you say they didnt
 
RU848789 said:
Was discussed above. Retrospective << randomized/controlled (Recovery Trial)...
Click to expand...
The Recovery Trial where they massively overdosed patients and basically murdered them? The study where they refused to release detailed data to hide the fact that they overdosed patients and killed them? In many countries 1875mg of HCQ a day is considered the overdose threshold to seek immediate attention. The Recovery trial dosed 2400mg day one and then 800mg for nine more days for a total of 9.6g. With a half life of 30 days the accumulated HCQ was well above overdose levels. Hence, they never released study report/data/info. The lethal dose of HCQ is 4g. With the long half life, 9.6g over ten days was lethal. The best part was when asked about it, the JO Landray justified the high dosing by saying it is what he saw was used for amoebic dysentery. Problem is HCQ is not used to treat that condtion, hydroxyquinoline is...
 
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