COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[RU-05]

68 reported FL deaths today, 64 yesterday, third day over 50 this week.

Yesterdays reporting put the 7dma at 42, today will go up again.

So a pretty clear trend since the low on June 18th.

Not sure what that bumb was early in the month, but interestingly, CA, TX and AZ all had a similar bump around that time.

Back to back days over 10K new cases in FL as well. Positivity rate up over 20%.

 

[RU-05]

View embedded media

Nice pivot.

And FL absolutely had lockdowns.

Edit: Florida is also not 46th in deaths per capita.

So @WiseupAmerica comes off as pretty clueless here.

 

[RU848789]

"It takes two to three weeks after infection for a person to be in critical condition or to die, so death curves generally follow along behind infection curves, something like one to two weeks delayed," Benjamin Neuman, chair of biological sciences at Texas A&M University-Texarkana, told Business Insider.

That lines up nicely with the graph you showed. BTW, 24 days since spike in cases began...

You guys are going to draw that spike "increase" line on 6/10? IMO, it's 6/15 at the earliest, as the rise from 6/10 to 6/15 is in the noise of the previous fluctuations. We'll know very soon whether death rates are going to climb or not in states like FL/TX/CA/GA etc. (they've started to in AZ). As I said a few days ago, probably by this weekend or next week, at the latest. I think they will, but said maybe they'll peak at 1/2-2/3 the per capita peak rates we saw in the NE US in the first wave, given less serious infections, on average (given a lot more testing available), more younger people being infected, and better medical procedures/treatments available now. Also, the Surgeon General just said deaths lag by 2 weeks or more, which is what I've been saying and what one sees just looking at the graphics for many states/countries.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news...03-20-intl/h_4213a01453f359da01d64a4780ef4cc5

 

[RU848789]

I never implied Brazillian study was using HCQ. I never said 0.4g was going to make a difference. I was correcting your mistaken statement.

The AMM in France considers the overdose rate at 25mg/kg of hydroxychloroquine, i.e. for a 75kg patient, 1875mg for one day, requiring immediate emergency hospital care.

http://agence-prd.ansm.sante.fr/php/ecodex/rcp/R0271872.htm

4.9. Overdose

Clinical signs of an overdose

· Absorbed doses ≥ 25 mg / kg,

· Headache, visual disturbances, cardiovascular collapse, hypokalemia, arrhythmias, conduction disturbances and seizures, quickly followed by respiratory arrest and sudden cardiac.

C'mon, you said, "Remember the arm of the Brazillian study that was dosing 1200mg and halted? The Recovery trial knew of this episode in Brazil and continued a similar dosing strategy." You're comparing those two trials directly, discussing doses - how can you not think you implied the same drug was being used? More importantly, what's your reaction to the fact that the Chinese study (also controlled/randomized) was almost identical in dosing to Recovery and had no red flags on safety/mortality? Surely Landray et al knew about that one and it must've given them comfort that their dosing would be safe.

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

68 reported FL deaths today, 64 yesterday, third day over 50 this week.

Yesterdays reporting put the 7dma at 42, today will go up again.

So a pretty clear trend since the low on June 18th.

Not sure what that bumb was early in the month, but interestingly, CA, TX and AZ all had a similar bump around that time.

Back to back days over 10K new cases in FL as well. Positivity rate up over 20%.

First time FL has reported consecutive days of 60+ deaths since May 7th and 8th.

 

[GoRutgersGo]

 

[RU848789]

Remember when Numbers said if HCQ worked we would have known it as it was used heavily in hospitals from late March to mid-April? I guess we now know it does work. Study covered period from 3/13 to 4/17.

NYC hospital study shows HCQ patients had 46% reduction in mortality.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11606-020-05983-z#MOESM1

Supplementary Table 6. The results of univariate Cox proportional hazard regression models.


Hazard ratio (95% CI) P value


Hydroxychloroquine use

0·54 (0·39-0·74) < 0·001

Well, the recent retrospective, observational JAMA/NEJoM studies (similar to this one) showed no HCQ efficacy (with or without azithromycin), which is what I said last night, i.e., for low confidence observational studies of ineffective drugs, one often sees some mixture of effective and ineffective results, as we've been seeing with HCQ, which is why the large, randomized, controlled, blinded Recovery trial carries so much more weight in the medical community.

Also, as I've said repeatedly, the biggest indication that HCQ wasn't a gamechanger or even likely effective at all was the simple math that 60-85% of hospitalized NYC patients (and reportedly elsewhere in the US/Europe) were being treated with HCQ (as per the JAMA/NEJoM studies with thousands of patients) upon admission or soon thereafter and from 4/1 to 5/1, when the NYC and US case fatality rates roughly doubled - surely if HCQ were a gamechanger or even mildly effective there would've been some clear positive signal in the mortality data. But there wasn't.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2012410

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766117

So you added a shot at me 12 minutes later in your edited post? Did you read my reply? You're going to use a retrospective study over a randomized/controlled study and then you're going to double down and take one NYC retrospective study over two others from NYC and claim "we now know it does work" without even a shred of doubt or uncertainty? Wow, talk about hubris.

Also, my main point about NYC case fatality rates doubling from 4/1-5/1, despite 60-85% of hospitalized patients receiving HCQ, supersedes the results of any of these three trials, IMO. If HCQ truly reduced mortality by 46%, do you think we'd have seen a doubling in the NY case fatality rate (3.9% on 4/1 vs. 7.6% on 5/1; NYC data were similar - not at my fingertips right now)? It simply strains credulity.

 

[ashokan]

THIS is why hydro got kicked to the curb...

Remdesivir for coronavirus: Gilead to charge thousands for treatment in U.S.
Price of $3,120 for patients with private insurance draws criticism. Out-of-pocket costs depend on insurance, income and other factors.


"The maker of a drug shown to shorten recovery time for severely ill COVID-19 patients says it will charge $2,340 for a typical treatment course for people covered by government health programs in the United States and other developed countries.

Gilead Sciences announced the price Monday for remdesivir, and said the price would be $3,120 for patients with private insurance. The amount that patients pay out of pocket depends on insurance, income and other factors."

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...ilead-charge-thousands-treatment-u-s-n1232385


Hydro' prices

https://www.goodrx.com/hydroxychlor...label_override=hydroxychloroquine&quantity=60

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

THIS is why hydro got kicked to the curb...

Remdesivir for coronavirus: Gilead to charge thousands for treatment in U.S.
Price of $3,120 for patients with private insurance draws criticism. Out-of-pocket costs depend on insurance, income and other factors.


"The maker of a drug shown to shorten recovery time for severely ill COVID-19 patients says it will charge $2,340 for a typical treatment course for people covered by government health programs in the United States and other developed countries.

Gilead Sciences announced the price Monday for remdesivir, and said the price would be $3,120 for patients with private insurance. The amount that patients pay out of pocket depends on insurance, income and other factors."

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...ilead-charge-thousands-treatment-u-s-n1232385


Hydro' prices

https://www.goodrx.com/hydroxychlor...label_override=hydroxychloroquine&quantity=60

We hadd called it monthZ. ago!!

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Nice pivot.

And FL absolutely had lockdowns.

Edit: Florida is also not 46th in deaths per capita.

So @WiseupAmerica comes off as pretty clueless here.

Whatz FL and what's NJ??

 

[Greg2020]

Whatz FL and what's NJ??

Is your argument that a lockdown is bad because NJ had a worse result than Florida? By that logic you should think that we should do the Chinese lock everyone in their homes strategy since they will end up with less deaths than Florida.

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

Clark County (Las Vegas) reporting hospitalizations are back at peak levels, but patients are typically younger than the April surge, and therefore requiring fewer vents, shorter stays, and more are surviving.

This is good and bad news. It’s good news that people are surviving of course, but bad news that this disease can fill hospitals with younger people.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.re...-hospitalization-peak-from-april-2066868/amp/

 

[RU848789]

THIS is why hydro got kicked to the curb...

Remdesivir for coronavirus: Gilead to charge thousands for treatment in U.S.
Price of $3,120 for patients with private insurance draws criticism. Out-of-pocket costs depend on insurance, income and other factors.


"The maker of a drug shown to shorten recovery time for severely ill COVID-19 patients says it will charge $2,340 for a typical treatment course for people covered by government health programs in the United States and other developed countries.

Gilead Sciences announced the price Monday for remdesivir, and said the price would be $3,120 for patients with private insurance. The amount that patients pay out of pocket depends on insurance, income and other factors."

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...ilead-charge-thousands-treatment-u-s-n1232385


Hydro' prices

https://www.goodrx.com/hydroxychlor...label_override=hydroxychloroquine&quantity=60

Wrong. Dexamethasone, the old steroid drug, which is dirt cheap, was found to be significantly more beneficial than remdesivir (especially wrt/mortality) so far in one of the other UK Recovery trials. If they were interested in making $$ for Pharma, no way that result comes out and no way they find no benefit from the combo of lapinovir/ritonavir, which also aren't cheap.

 

[bac2therac]

Its always about $$$

 

[RU848789]

You guys are going to draw that spike "increase" line on 6/10? IMO, it's 6/15 at the earliest, as the rise from 6/10 to 6/15 is in the noise of the previous fluctuations. We'll know very soon whether death rates are going to climb or not in states like FL/TX/CA/GA etc. (they've started to in AZ). As I said a few days ago, probably by this weekend or next week, at the latest. I think they will, but said maybe they'll peak at 1/2-2/3 the per capita peak rates we saw in the NE US in the first wave, given less serious infections, on average (given a lot more testing available), more younger people being infected, and better medical procedures/treatments available now. Also, the Surgeon General just said deaths lag by 2 weeks or more, which is what I've been saying and what one sees just looking at the graphics for many states/countries.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news...03-20-intl/h_4213a01453f359da01d64a4780ef4cc5

So, @ashokan @wisr01 @Proud NJ Sports Fan etc. - you guys seem to be implying that death rates aren't going to climb at all or much in spiking states like TX/FL/GA/CA/AZ. I'm on record saying I think we'll see peaks at 1/2-2/3 the per capita peak death rates we saw in the NE US (let's say NY for argument's sake). Do you guys think they'll stay pretty flat, go up a bit (maybe to 20-30% of NY's peak rate), go up a fair amount like I believe or even match the NY peak rates per capita? I see lots of critiques of my predictions, but not a lot of other people willing to make predictions. Others are welcome to make predictions, too, but I was most curious about the predictions of folks who seem skeptical about death rates going up or who might think the virus has weakened.

 

[wisr01]

C'mon, you said, "Remember the arm of the Brazillian study that was dosing 1200mg and halted? The Recovery trial knew of this episode in Brazil and continued a similar dosing strategy." You're comparing those two trials directly, discussing doses - how can you not think you implied the same drug was being used? More importantly, what's your reaction to the fact that the Chinese study (also controlled/randomized) was almost identical in dosing to Recovery and had no red flags on safety/mortality? Surely Landray et al knew about that one and it must've given them comfort that their dosing would be safe.

And here I thought we were in agreement about not trusting Chinese data/info. I must have confused you with someone else.

 

[TroothSkr]

#s, yes you make predictions and some others look for tiny, tiny and sometimes ever-changing ways to cut the data in ways that make the situation look good or bad or whatever their political biases (bosses?) seem to want.

I am completely impressed by your stamina and the data and analysis you provide. But it isn’t about your being right or wrong with predictions or others simply seemingly wishing for good or bad news. (Though I want you to be wrong about the deaths you envision coming and hope that others who think otherwise - wish otherwise? - are right).

It's sad that something so catastrophic became so political. Separately, why in the world are we even discussing HCQ?!!

Re protests, I think @Barnaby&Neill said it wonderfully “To say a protest caused the spikes defies a lot of evidence and common sense, to say an infection doesn’t spread at a protest ignores that it is a gathering of people”. Clearly protests with or without masks wasn’t great timing and must have had implications, but the George Floyd murder was hellish and required repercussions. Institutional racism and the centuries of policies – legal and illegal - have real implications which we, as a society, do need to tackle.

But this thread is about what we need to LEARN and can DO to get all of us out of this mess. I recommend everyone read a wonderful article in the New Yorker about Iceland and how they have handled the virus. Granted the US is a significantly more complex world than Iceland, but still …

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/06/08/how-iceland-beat-the-coronavirus

The picture in this article – taken on May 18 after an 8 week national closure seems like such an unreachable milestone for us. Unless ...

The path forward is clear – we simply need the leadership and the will to do it. And it doesn’t matter if we are talking AZ or FL or CA. We need to be in this together and with centralized and uniform Federal leadership to have a shot. Where is our President? What is he doing? Why is he abdicating leadership to Governors so totally? I can't recall that ever happening! As I wrote in the earlier thread, I believe we desperately need clear, well communicated guidelines we hold the nation to. I fervently hope the Federal Government regains its leadership role in this national catastrophe. Tomorrow would be a good day for this to begin ...

 

[wisr01]

C'mon, you said, "Remember the arm of the Brazillian study that was dosing 1200mg and halted? The Recovery trial knew of this episode in Brazil and continued a similar dosing strategy." You're comparing those two trials directly, discussing doses - how can you not think you implied the same drug was being used? More importantly, what's your reaction to the fact that the Chinese study (also controlled/randomized) was almost identical in dosing to Recovery and had no red flags on safety/mortality? Surely Landray et al knew about that one and it must've given them comfort that their dosing would be safe.

https://conexaopolitica.com.br/ulti...r-on-the-science-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

 

[RUinPinehurst]

NC today reported 2,099 new lab-confirmed cases, which top the previous single-day high of 1,843 on Wednesday. Here in the Boone/Blowing Rock area, still so many visitors from FL, per the many many vehicles carrying that state's license plates.

When are states going to draw the line and say, "Stay Away!"????

 

[RU848789]

And here I thought we were in agreement about not trusting Chinese data/info. I must have confused you with someone else.

Partial agreement. I've never trusted their outbreak data at all, since I'm certain their government covered up a lot, and I'm wary of their vaccines, based on past history, but I've generally been fine with their scientific papers, as those at least get peer reviewed and there's not much to be gained by making things up in scientific publications and they've been trying to portray themselves as scientific leaders, so I've been generally ok with their medical/epidemiological papers.

 

[Joey Bags]

I wonder if there is a trigger point where new cases and shutdowns will trigger a second market collapse. So far the major indices are shrugging off this surge as a nonevent.

 

[RU-05]

Whatz FL and what's NJ??

I could do the leg work for you, but as the old saying goes, give a man a fish.....

 

[RU848789]

https://conexaopolitica.com.br/ulti...r-on-the-science-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

That's your non-response response to my questions on what you said about the Brazilian study? One thing posting a lot about the weather has afforded me is coming to grips with being wrong and acknowledging it.

 

[RU-05]

Fauci isn't even a part of the CDC.

It's amazing just how clueless people are.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Is your argument that a lockdown is bad because NJ had a worse result than Florida? By that logic you should think that we should do the Chinese lock everyone in their homes strategy since they will end up with less deaths than Florida.

The goalposts and messaging keeps changin, remember this?

 

[LC-88]

NC today reported 2,099 new lab-confirmed cases, which top the previous single-day high of 1,843 on Wednesday. Here in the Boone/Blowing Rock area, still so many visitors from FL, per the many many vehicles carrying that state's license plates.

When are states going to draw the line and say, "Stay Away!"????

Cant speak for the whole state, but in Orange County, NC. (Chapel Hill and Hillsborough), migrant workers split in late March and April. Started coming back in mid-May. My guess is this is why there is a spike in NC. I doubt race/national origin info is given in testing results.

 

[RU-05]

I wonder if there is a trigger point where new cases and shutdowns will trigger a second market collapse. So far the major indices are shrugging off this surge as a nonevent.

I'm going to say no. FL's new cases, while still increasing, did not show the jump week to week like we had been seeing. If this week they were reporting 20K new cases per day, then maybe. I've also heard multiple reports about how Texas is now taking this seriously people wearing masks etc, which is a big departure from a month ago.

So there are multiple factors which put us in a much different place then we were in March. 1)Treatments, we have a much better grasp on how to deal with this. 2)Hospital capacity, again, much better position in terms of treating the sick. 3)Testing, yes we are reporting more new cases now, but I still think it is safe to say there were more actual cases March/April. 4)Measures taken by the public to limit spread. Masks, social distancing etc.

And while deaths in certain states will likely jump, it will likely not approach the levels we saw at the onset.

 

[RU-05]

The goalposts and messaging keeps changin, remember this?

View embedded media

So why would Trumps surgeon general say "stop buying masks"?

 

[RU-05]

Cant speak for the whole state, but in Orange County, NC. (Chapel Hill and Hillsborough), migrant workers split in late March and April. Started coming back in mid-May. My guess is this is why there is a spike in NC. I doubt race/national origin info is given in testing results.

80% of NC cases are either white (56%) or black (24%).

Oops, have to back track here.

46% hispanic. Defintiely could be something to what you are saying.

https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/cases

 

[RU-05]

Seriously, stop looking to twitter or facebook for your information.

Worldometer, Johns Hopkins, and the states dashboards.

 

[rutgersdave]

So why would Trumps surgeon general say "stop buying masks"?

The Surgeon General was just on TV and basically repeats whatever Trump wants.

People should have free choice to wear mask was his respond of whether Trump supporters should be wearing mask at his MT Rushmore rally.

 

[rutgersdave]

Cant speak for the whole state, but in Orange County, NC. (Chapel Hill and Hillsborough), migrant workers split in late March and April. Started coming back in mid-May. My guess is this is why there is a spike in NC. I doubt race/national origin info is given in testing results.

Are they illegal migrants? Are they traveling around the country spreading the coronavirus?

 

[RU-05]

The Surgeon General was just on TV and basically repeats whatever Trump wants. People should have free choice to wear mask.

And people should be overwhelmingly choosing to wear masks. But many are not. Thus the dilemma.

 

[RU-05]

Are they illegal migrants? Are they traveling around the country spreading the coronavirus?

I would assume they are going state to state spreading it about all willy nilly.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

So why would Trumps surgeon general say "stop buying masks"?

CDC, Fauci and WHO said so.

 

[RU848789]

Really insightful article in National Geographic, entitled, "Here's how we will know when a coronavirus vaccine is ready." Talks about safety and efficacy, obviously, but also has a nice overview of the clinical process and discussed things like what % would likely get vaccines. Also, includes an interesting rehash of the swine flu vaccine mess in the 70s.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...20200703&rid=3F7A7D00850AD922736B3173646A296D

 

[TroothSkr]

@Proud NJ Sports Fan , you are correct. The goal posts and messaging DO keep changing. But isn't that understandable given how we are all learning something new every few days?

I mean it isn't like COVID-19 came into the world with a recipe for how to identify, diagnose, and treat it! We have to accept that reality and continually adapt to the new fact base. That's simple common sense isn't it?

Posting something from February 29th today is hardly useful except to pin blame on someone or something. And I ask you, what is to be gained from that?

If your point is that we can't accept everything we are told at face value, I applaud and accept that. But, equally, there are FACTS that we can and should accept. For example, we are experiencing first hand in NJ the positive impact on case loads of our collective sacrifice over the past months. Social distancing DID work.

As will careful, planful reopening with care taken by ALL of us. I believe we can learn from CA's experience where they started off doing what we did but loosened up differently. I appeal to all of us to focus on the concrete steps we can take to reopen carefully so we can now focus on reducing the economic burden rather than the clinical one.

I'll end with my wishes for a Happy 4th to everyone!

 

[RU-05]

CDC, Fauci and WHO said so.

You posted the CDC. Does Trumps guy not think for himself?

 

[albanyknight]

Wow, has this thread gone down the crapper.

With few exceptions, it is July 3rd and we are still arguing about things like masks, indoor/outdoor, social distancing, HCQ and the protests. Might as well just have two threads. One being the anti-science view of the virus and the other for everyone else.

 

[RU-05]

Wow, has this thread gone down the crapper.

With few exceptions, it is July 3rd and we are still arguing about things like masks, indoor/outdoor, social distancing,HCQ and the protests. Might as well just have two threads. One being the anti-science view of the virus and the other for everyone else.

Gotta keep battling. I admit I've gone a little snarky, but keep pushing the facts.