COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter Richie O
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Had my worse day in my business. People have completely realized that you must wear a mask to get into a supermarket. But once you are in there is no law to ask them or force them to wear one. We can not toss anyone who takes them off once they have entered. What kind of stupidity is that??
That sucks. There ought to be a way to have such folks thrown out of the store for potentially endangering employees and other patrons.
I've been saying this from day one. Employees can get fired for wearing a masks improperly yet customers are immune to consequences. Nothing fair about that!
The store manager, loss prevention and store owners in the Wakefern / Shop Rite Co Op should have the ability to ask that customer to abide by the policy set forth ...In what state is this store?
I'm in PA. Same for NJ and NY. We can ask them to abide by the rule however once they are in the store with a mask there is no law to stop them from shopping without one. Essential business
However as the manager of beer and wine I can refuse to sell booze to anyone without giving a reason. But they can still shop in the rest of the store.
Hey consider yourself lucky - just kidding obviously, but this story is nuts. Someone's going to get killed over a mask soon...
https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article243978872.html
Not good - Houston's percentage of positive tests has reached 25% after being 15% last week; at its worst, NYC's was about 25% on 3/16, when schools/bars/restaurants and many other businesses closed and as close to 40% by 3/24 and nearly 50% by about 3/29, but was only 25% around 3/16. They really need to shut down public spaces and make masks 100% mandatory now (the Gov's order is nowhere near 100%) or else they'll be completely locking Houston down in a week.
https://www.newsweek.com/1-4-houston-residents-testing-positive-covid-19-amid-texas-outbreak-1515349
https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-DailyTracker?:embed=yes&:toolbar=no&:tabs=n
https://www.newsweek.com/1-4-houston-residents-testing-positive-covid-19-amid-texas-outbreak-1515349
https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-DailyTracker?:embed=yes&:toolbar=no&:tabs=n
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My friend this already happened in May in Michigan.
Truly sad and no one even cares. No one says his name. Poor guy just doing a crummy job.
I’m not touching the politics of this one but I forgot about this story. But I was doing work in a local hospital yesterday and the nurse who I was with randomly brought it up.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/michigan-security-guard-mask-killing-trnd/index.html
Yeah me too. Not to derail your thread for a minute. Sad enough a Dollar Store has to employ a security guard. And poor guy gets killed for trying to do his job. I completely forgot the story myself too.
No one enjoys wearing a mask necessarily. It just falls into the “it is what it is” category at this juncture. My wife wears one 10 hours at a clip so I surely can wear mine when I leave my office to even just use the men’s room in my building. Thanks as always for the good info that I enjoy reading.
An update on Japan's extremely low case and death rates from COVID, with only 150 cases/1MM and 8 deaths/1MM (vs. 4000+ cases/1MM and 400+ deaths/1MM for many countries, including the US). Unlike some other countries that have also done very well, Japan did minimal testing, relying more on a very efficient health surveillance network enabling tracing/isolating, combined with a culture with "built-in" distancing, plus near universal masking. Some have even suspected some native immunity perhaps due to some previous regional coronavirus. Having said all that they just hit their highest numbers in over a month with 179 cases yesterday, including 124 in Tokyo (most in younger people). Let's see how they respond to this flare-up, although they've been able to contain previous ones.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847
https://japantoday.com/category/nat...ate-of-emergency-as-tokyo-covid-19-cases-rise
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847
https://japantoday.com/category/nat...ate-of-emergency-as-tokyo-covid-19-cases-rise
The tweet is sort of contradictory on its face: if they offer no value, then why are they essential in the medical setting?
In hindsight, this (and other statements like it) seem like they were part of an effort to ration supplies for critical care workers. If presented only as: “stop buying these important safety tools or we’ll run out” everyone would have bought one.
Another prediction coming true!
The last four Fridays:
6/12: 800
6/19: 729
6/26: 663
7/3: 616
We don’t know lwhat the impact will be of rising case counts over the same four week period, but we’re riding a positive trend right now. Friday is an arbitrary day—but putting yesterday’s number in context, Friday mortalities are declining by roughly 10% per week.
Back down from 909 to 726 and positivity rate at 1.1%. You also cannot include NY is any discussion with these other states as NY does anywhere from 50,000-70,000 tests per day, with 1 day results. NY is the model success story that all the other states hopefully learn from and bring their spike under control.
It did, but I think that highlights an odd reporting pattern where deaths are highest on Tuesday and then descend during the week, and then jump again on the following Tuesday. So I'd rather look at week over week or the 7dma. Both of which will still back your point.
616 reported yesterday. 663 reported last Friday.
The 7dma was at 558 yesterday, 604 last Friday.
Now the declining trend has begun to flatten with certain states seeing clear increases, and with the overall trend in cases spiking it likely won't be long until the deaths begin to increase as well. But right now the overall # of deaths is decreasing.
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This is all true, but there is also something to seeing a small increase and trying to reverse it early, as opposed to denying the increase and waiting till the problem becomes much more difficult to handle.
There has been no spike after the protests in NY because the positivity rate had come down to 1% or lower from high teens to 20% at the peak. So most but not all wore masks, plus very few people to infect . Upstate NY has been open with restaurants and bars for over 2-3 weeks with no appreciable spike. Outdoor dining hit NYC on 6/22 and their has been a slight uptick from 1-1.1% to 1.3%. But nothing compared to the disaster going on elsewhere. NJ in the last 2 days reported 386 and today 303. That is more good news for our area. I think but cannot tell if N.J. is testing 20,000plus per day but if they are , that is more positive news as well as hospitalizations in both NY and N.J. both down. They are still a lot of people on ventilators in both states so you unfortunately will continue to have deaths but NY having deaths in the single digits or low teens for the last 10 days or so is more good news.
Correlation between Vitamin D deficiency and mortality.
https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...deficiency-and-death-rates-from-COVID-19.aspx
https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...deficiency-and-death-rates-from-COVID-19.aspx
I dunno the prevalance of vitamin d deficiency was pretty similar for 6 of the countries on that list, ranging from 4ish to 7ish %, while the deaths per million amongst that group ranged dramatically.
I would like to see where Sweden fits in on the vitamin D deficiency scale. Wonder why they and Italy did not meet inclusion criteria.
What that graph really makes me wonder though is what is the difference between Denmark Finland and Norway vs the UK in terms of Vitamin D?
Diet. Italy, Spain, Portugal and UK have some of the worst Vitamin D diets in Europe.
Northern Europe
The mean intake of vitamin D in Northern Europe varies between 4 and 14 µg/day (41, 43, 139, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144, 145, 146, 147, 148, 149), with high values found in Norway, due to the consumption of oily fish and cod liver oil. In Iceland, the difference between users and non-users of cod liver oil was more than 9 µg/day. In Sweden, fish and fortified milk products were important sources. In Finland, the fortification of fluid milk products was recently increased to 10 µg/L. Vitamin D supplement of 10 µg/day was recommended for children younger than 3 years, and 7.5 µg/day for children and adolescents aged 3–18 years. The recent Finrisk–Findiet survey has shown that the dietary vitamin D intake has increased to above 10 µg/day in men and nearly as much in women (47, 147). The mean dietary vitamin D intake was around 3 µg/day in Denmark.
Western Europe
The mean vitamin D intake in Western Europe varies between 1.5 and 5 µg/day, far below the EAR of 10 µg/day (150, 151, 152, 153, 154, 155, 156, 157, 158, 159, 160, 161).
Southern Europe
Food consumption surveys presented in Table 3 showed vitamin D intakes from below 1 µg/day to about 3 µg/day in Italy, Spain and Portugal.
Eastern Europe
The mean vitamin D intake varied between 2 and 5 µg/day, according to a recent review (162).
https://eje.bioscientifica.com/view/journals/eje/180/4/EJE-18-0736.xml
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And that will be the story going forward. Cases way up for weeks but deaths continue to drop. I know better treatments, hospital care, etc. but many are now studying virus current strength.
And that will be the story going forward. Cases way up for weeks but deaths continue to drop. I know better treatments, hospital care, etc. but many are now studying virus current strength.
But that is not the case in Florida Texas and AZ where deaths are ticking up in the wake of case spikes.
If you look a few posts above someone shared Vitamin D correlation with mortality. I have seen seasonal studies done that show that the prevalence of deficiency is much higher in winter/early spring vs summer. Could it be that people are better able to fight off virus with higher Vitamin D levels at this time of year? You have to consider the possibility that it is contributing to lower death rates.
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More reason to drink outside!
Florida hospitalization rates trending upward.
Hopefully better treatments lead to positive outcomes.
The deaths are not ticking up in proportion to the spikes. Florida cases started rising at the beginning of June and two weeks later deaths started rising (6/18). After two weeks the daily case MA had tripled compared to June 1st. Add two more weeks and you get the recent few days for comparison to deaths and deaths have not tripled. In fact they have gone from MA 31 to MA 44 (today).
I'm not arguing the rate jump will be proportional, in fact I've noted that I think our testing, treatment, and possible viral weakening will lead to less deaths per reported case then early on in the virus. The testing alone will make sure of that in a dramatic fashion.
But the deaths will go up. Can't have this many cases and think otherwise.
The silver lining is this:Florida hospitalization rates trending upward.
Hopefully better treatments lead to positive outcomes.
Hospitalizations seem to lag a week behind cases. The daily cases MA went up 5X from June 2 to June 24. The daily hospitalizations MA from 6/9 to 7/1 only doubled. People are not getting as sick right now. compared to just a month ago. In April/May the daily hospitalization rate a week after cases was over 20% and today it is around 5%.
Of course they will go up. Who would argue other wise? But if hospitalizations and death are no longer increasing in the proportion they were in April we can handle and accept lower increase rates than we saw in April.
Here is a different way of looking at:
In our first million cases, the CFR (deaths offset 2 weeks after 1M cases) was 86K/1M for 8.6%. In our next million cases, the CFR (again offset 2 weeks) was 40K/1M for 4%. In the remaining period we have 300K cases (cut off 6/19) and 8K deaths today (again 2 week offset) for a 2.6% CFR.
The IFR from April/May was estimated as roughly 1%. My guess would be that the current IFR is probably closer to 0.3-0.4% over the last 3 weeks or so.
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