COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[RU-05]

Of course they will go up. Who would argue other wise? But if hospitalizations and death are no longer increasing in the proportion they were in April we can handle and accept lower increase rates than we saw in April.

1)I responded to someone above saying deaths will continue to drop. A quarter of the people in this thread argue this.

2)How much lower then the April levels is acceptable. I talked about this the other day as well. We do accept a certain level of death in society whether it be in regards to covid or otherwise(might have used those exact words), but what is that level? At our peak 2200+ people were dying per day. We are currently around 500 per day. Are we cool with in doubling the current rate, but still only half of our peak? I dunno.

 

[RU-05]

Here is a different way of looking at:

In our first million cases, the CFR (deaths offset 2 weeks after 1M cases) was 86K/1M for 8.6%. In our next million cases, the CFR (again offset 2 weeks) was 40K/1M for 4%. In the remaining period we have 300K cases (cut off 6/19) and 8K deaths today (again 2 week offset) for a 2.6% CFR.

The IFR from April/May was estimated as roughly 1%. My guess would be that the current IFR is probably closer to 0.3% over the last 3 weeks or so.

2 things to consider here.

A)how many cases we missed early.

B)how many current cases are active.

 

[RUaMoose]

Given the picture I've seen from the Jersey shore, anyone concerned there might be a spike in the weeks ahead ?

 

[RUskoolie]

Given the picture I've seen from the Jersey shore, anyone concerned there might be a spike in the weeks ahead ?

Of course there will be a spike. People cannot stay locked inside forever. Most people are accepting of the risks (old and young alike). I was just at a party with 25+ people yesterday. Plenty of older folks peppered in. Life must go on and I'm sure we will ebb and flow with crowd size allowances if/when hospitals get close to feeling over run, although most aren't there from what I understand. A rise in cases means nothing when we're now testing 18M people a month. I guess we won't be talking about not having enough testing either.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Of course there will be a spike. People cannot stay locked inside forever. Most people are accepting of the risks (old and young alike). I was just at a party with 25+ people yesterday. Plenty of older folks peppered in. Life must go on and I'm sure we will ebb and flow with crowd size allowances if/when hospitals get close to feeling over run, although most aren't there from what I understand. A rise in cases means nothing when we're now testing 18M people a month. I guess we won't be talking about not having enough testing either.

Lots of truth to this. People are aware of the risks and need to decided what they are comfortable with.

 

[wisr01]

Lots of truth to this. People are aware of the risks and need to decided what they are comfortable with.

Freedom at its finest.

 

[wisr01]

Of course there will be a spike. People cannot stay locked inside forever. Most people are accepting of the risks (old and young alike). I was just at a party with 25+ people yesterday. Plenty of older folks peppered in. Life must go on and I'm sure we will ebb and flow with crowd size allowances if/when hospitals get close to feeling over run, although most aren't there from what I understand. A rise in cases means nothing when we're now testing 18M people a month. I guess we won't be talking about not having enough testing either.

Hospitalizations down to 917 and only 151 currently on ventilators.

 

[NickRU714]

Of course there will be a spike. People cannot stay locked inside forever. Most people are accepting of the risks (old and young alike). I was just at a party with 25+ people yesterday. Plenty of older folks peppered in. Life must go on and I'm sure we will ebb and flow with crowd size allowances if/when hospitals get close to feeling over run, although most aren't there from what I understand. A rise in cases means nothing when we're now testing 18M people a month. I guess we won't be talking about not having enough testing either.

My big problem is some of my friends (and I’ve even said it to them):
Monday Through Friday: posting IG memes making fun of Boomers and Karen’s for not wearing masks.

Saturday and Sunday: Rooftop party with friends, tubing trips, hanging out in the park, beach trips and not a mask to be seen on anyone.

I get it - masks probably aren’t needed outside but don’t make your entire weekday life a crusade for mask wearing and then numerous pictures with no masks on the weekend.

 

[wisr01]

Interesting graph of Florida's cases and deaths:

 

[T2Kplus10]

Interesting graph of Florida's cases and deaths:

Looks like young people in FL are getting the majority of cases with very little medical consequences, so they just really don't care.

 

[RU-05]

Given the picture I've seen from the Jersey shore, anyone concerned there might be a spike in the weeks ahead ?

I think people above touch on some good points in regards to this.

1)the very low prevalence of the virus means there are very few spreaders.

2)The very low prevalence of the virus means that even if our case counts were to double in the upcoming weeks it is still a manageable #.

3)We have plenty of testing capacity, we have plenty of hospital capacity, as a country we have much better treatments.

4)People do need to get out and blow off some steam, I'm on the side of taking covid very seriously, but people do need to experience life, push back against what feels like an oppressive situation, and summertime, especially around the 4th of July is a great time for it. Not only from a psychological perspective, but also from a scientific standpoint because we know outdoors is significantly better then indoors.

So yeah the #'s will go up, but we will be able to handle those #'s, and I also think people, most of them anyway, will be willing to reign it in when it is time to reign it in.

 

[bac2therac]

My big problem is some of my friends (and I’ve even said it to them):
Monday Through Friday: posting IG memes making fun of Boomers and Karen’s for not wearing masks.

Saturday and Sunday: Rooftop party with friends, tubing trips, hanging out in the park, beach trips and not a mask to be seen on anyone.

I get it - masks probably aren’t needed outside but don’t make your entire weekday life a crusade for mask wearing and then numerous pictures with no masks on the weekend.

Yup the hypocrisy is amazing

Also there is nothing more laughable than reporters wearing masks and touching them repeatedly as it keeps coming down their nose. There is no evidence that says you catch coronavirus from doing a newspiece outside

 

[RU-05]

Interesting graph of Florida's cases and deaths:

As I note above I think you need to consider that many of the recent cases, which we are hearing are predominantly young folk, are still active.

 

[wisr01]

As I note above I think you need to consider that many of the recent cases, which we are hearing are predominantly young folk, are still active.

Not the case in NJ and yet roughly only 60 people died in the age group 18-29. Are you expecting something else in Florida?

 

[RutHut]

Just curious. As of Monday, is WFH done for most in our area? More worried about more people gathered indoors. Yes, masks required in common areas, but what about those in cubicles or working 10 feet apart for prolonged periods?

 

[RU-05]

50% of Florida's reported Covid cases have come in the last 2 weeks.

Any graphs showing results of cases, while including the most recent cases, are just not going to be accurate.

 

[RU-05]

Not the case in NJ and yet roughly only 60 people died in the age group 18-29. Are you expecting something else in Florida?

No, we all know the virus has significantly less effect on younger people, but that doesn't say anything about my point regarding current Florida data.

 

[RU#1fan]

Freedom at its finest.

Not when that “freedom” endangers the lives of others.

 

[ArminRU]

Of course there will be a spike. People cannot stay locked inside forever. Most people are accepting of the risks (old and young alike). I was just at a party with 25+ people yesterday. Plenty of older folks peppered in. Life must go on and I'm sure we will ebb and flow with crowd size allowances if/when hospitals get close to feeling over run, although most aren't there from what I understand. A rise in cases means nothing when we're now testing 18M people a month. I guess we won't be talking about not having enough testing either.

Pretty much this. Different states are going to have to deal with spikes and being locked down again. Although I do think you can balance opening just enough as to not see unsustainable spread and hospitalizations. Whatever AZ and TX are doing is not it.

 

[DanRU]

Hospitalizations down to 917 and only 151 currently on ventilators.

I'm sure this isn't a stat that's kept but I'm curious about the people on ventilators. Are these new cases or are the majority on ventilators those who have been on them for a period of time? I'm also curious about the outcome of those on ventilators. What percentage actually survive and are the current 151 going to be eventual deaths?

 

[DanRU]

Pretty much this. Different states are going to have to deal with spikes and being locked down again. Although I do think you can balance opening just enough as to not see unsustainable spread and hospitalizations. Whatever AZ and TX are doing is not it.

This is why it's difficult to have a national policy on this. Many areas are doing well and people in those areas aren't going to care what Fauci says.

 

[Kbee3]

Not when that “freedom” endangers the lives of others.

Interesting read....The Great Influenza by John M. Barry. Woodrow Wilson cracked down on any and all voices in opposition to his measures to fight the influenza pandemic. And anyone who spread bad news about the disease.

 

[RU-05]

Interesting read....The Great Influenza by John M. Barry. Woodrow Wilson cracked down on any and all voices in opposition to his measures to fight the influenza pandemic. And anyone who spread bad news about the disease.

Watching History channel I just saw that the Spanish Flu killed both Dodge brothers who were in their 50's and 2 of the best engineers and mechanics of their time.

 

[wisr01]

I'm sure this isn't a stat that's kept but I'm curious about the people on ventilators. Are these new cases or are the majority on ventilators those who have been on them for a period of time? I'm also curious about the outcome of those on ventilators. What percentage actually survive and are the current 151 going to be eventual deaths?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...3c3534-bbca-11ea-8cf5-9c1b8d7f84c6_story.html

From the article:

Buhr’s hospital is still putting together data, but he said the mortality rate for ventilated patients is in the 30 percent to 50 percent range. That is about the same as the rate for people who develop acute respiratory distress syndrome, the dangerous buildup of fluid in the tiny air sacs of the lungs caused by diseases such as pneumonia, or injuries such as those suffered in car accidents.

 

[LETSGORU91]

I'm sure this isn't a stat that's kept but I'm curious about the people on ventilators. Are these new cases or are the majority on ventilators those who have been on them for a period of time? I'm also curious about the outcome of those on ventilators. What percentage actually survive and are the current 151 going to be eventual deaths?

There are a number of long term vented patients. The goal is to have them test negative for Covid, give them a tracheostomy, and transfer them to a long term acute care facility. Many continue to test positive and are stuck in the hospital until they get their trach. These patients will most likely never come off a ventilator and will succumb sooner or later in the hospital or long term facility for some reason or another.

This is why it's difficult to have a national policy on this. Many areas are doing well and people in those areas aren't going to care what Fauci says.

At this point, many don't give credence to Fauci's words. He flip flops more than a landed fluke on the boat deck.

Not when that “freedom” endangers the lives of others.

Excellent point. Unfortunately, I think there are a decent number of people not giving a good thought to that consideration.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Watching History channel I just saw that the Spanish Flu killed both Dodge brothers who were in their 50's and 2 of the best engineers and mechanics of their time.

IIRC, it almost got Babe Ruth as well. Almost.

 

[King of S]

Hospitalizations down to 917 and only 151 currently on ventilators.

Great news. No spikes in hospitalizations.

 

[wisr01]

Not when that “freedom” endangers the lives of others.

What you just said is quite un-American. Are you a communist?

Benjamin Franklin once said that “those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.”

In an American context, Franklin's line plays on the idea that liberty is the thing we would be protecting by choosing safety. In opting to give up liberty in favor of safety, we are essentially gaining nothing.

The thing we value most (liberty) is lost if we elevate safety to a place of primary value. The essence of this idea, to me, is that liberty entails some necessary degree of uncertainty. Liberty stands in opposition to tyranny, to paranoia and to knee-jerk militarism.

When people have liberty (freedom of choice, freedom of speech, freedom of action, freedom of movement, etc.), they are not being controlled and so might go "out of control" and use that liberty to harm others. If a position was adopted that sought to curb liberty so that people would or could not go "out of control" then people would effectively be controlled. In opting for safety of this kind, freedom of movement, freedom of choice, freedom of speech and freedom of action would be reduced or eliminated.

Thus, in choosing safety over liberty one is choosing safety instead of liberty.

As an American I stand with Patrick Henry: "Give me liberty, or give me death!"

What was Patrick Henry expessing here? A set-phrase indicating enormous displeasure at any over-authoritarian policy or law.

Your safety has no impact on my personal liberty under our constitution. My freedom does not include illegal activities. For those I can be arrested. My liberty supersedes your safety here in America as long as I abide by the law.

 

[Kbee3]

nm

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

What you just said is quite un-American. Are you a communist?

Benjamin Franklin once said that “those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.”

In an American context, Franklin's line plays on the idea that liberty is the thing we would be protecting by choosing safety. In opting to give up liberty in favor of safety, we are essentially gaining nothing.

The thing we value most (liberty) is lost if we elevate safety to a place of primary value. The essence of this idea, to me, is that liberty entails some necessary degree of uncertainty. Liberty stands in opposition to tyranny, to paranoia and to knee-jerk militarism.

When people have liberty (freedom of choice, freedom of speech, freedom of action, freedom of movement, etc.), they are not being controlled and so might go "out of control" and use that liberty to harm others. If a position was adopted that sought to curb liberty so that people would or could not go "out of control" then people would effectively be controlled. In opting for safety of this kind, freedom of movement, freedom of choice, freedom of speech and freedom of action would be reduced or eliminated.

Thus, in choosing safety over liberty one is choosing safety instead of liberty.

As an American I stand with Patrick Henry: "Give me liberty, or give me death!"

What was Patrick Henry expessing here? A set-phrase indicating enormous displeasure at any over-authoritarian policy or law.

The anti-authoritarian sentiment feels warms and fuzzy, but there are plenty of broad public safety measures that we would never think to walk back, and they either have saved our lives (whether we know it or not), or added to our life expectancy. Unlike seating restrictions at a restaurant, we are largely blind to a lot of public safety controls that helped make America a world envy. So where do you draw the line?

When can the government issue sweeping mandates to protect the physical and economic welfare of its people, and when is it acting with too much authority?

 

[wisr01]

The anti-authoritarian sentiment feels warms and fuzzy, but there are plenty of broad public safety measures that we would never think to walk back, and they either have saved our lives (whether we know it or not), or added to our life expectancy. Unlike seating restrictions at a restaurant, we are largely blind to a lot of public safety controls that helped make America a world envy. So where do you draw the line?

When can the government issue sweeping mandates to protect the physical and economic welfare of its people, and when is it acting with too much authority?

Give me some examples of these restrictions so we can discuss them?

 

[Kbee3]

nm

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

Give me some examples of these restrictions so we can discuss them?

Speed limits
Seat belts
Indoor smoking
Drinking and driving
Clean water
Vaccination laws
The dozens of food safety laws and inspection / enforcement apparatus built around them
Same laws safety around practice of medicine / selling of drugs
Workplace safety laws and enforcement
Building / construction laws

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

@wisr01

fwiw, the conversation is largely just for conversation. We’re pretty much past the point in the US where we can say “swift and dramatic public policy can stem the outbreak of the virus to a low transmission rate and lead to a smooth reopening.” We’ve lost that war, so we can’t do something like Australia, and lockdown a block of apartment buildings to prevent an outbreak from jeopardizing smooth reopening.

Since we can’t do that, we’ll have to do as you suggest by default: we’ll assess our own risk, and find a new normal with the presence of infections. People will spend less money because of it, more people will find solitary or at-home type leisure activities and as a result this will be very hard on many local businesses.

Perhaps there’s an argument to be had that the greatest freedom in this case is born of the tightest restriction regime in the virus’ early days. In the US, the government may not play as strong a role in fighting the virus as elsewhere, but then the virus itself becomes its own tyrant. Older people, people with high-risk conditions, people who don’t want to get sick even if the odds are in their favor, will find themselves in a society with far less freedom than those that were able to drive transmission rates to low levels early in the crisis.

 

[wisr01]

Speed limits
Seat belts
Indoor smoking
Drinking and driving
Clean water
Vaccination laws
The dozens of food safety laws and inspection / enforcement apparatus built around them
Same laws safety around practice of medicine / selling of drugs
Workplace safety laws and enforcement
Building / construction laws

None of those restrict my personal freedom to work, assemble, speech, practice religion, etc. Those are my personal freedoms. Those restrictions are primarily on providers so they provide a safe product, food, working environment, etc. I have no problem with businesses being forced to wear masks and requiring customers to wear them for everyone's safety. But anything that restricts my ability to work, assemble, practice religion, etc is unconstitutional except if brief during an emergency. That is why many constitutional scholars said the lockdowns were NOT unconstitutional as long as they were broad and fair in scope and limited as to length of time. There are many questions about the broad and fair as many small businesses were destroyed but Walmart, Home Depot, etc were operating.

My personal liberty can be temporarily curbed during an emergency for the good of all. But most constitutional scholars I read agree that there is a limit to it because ultimately our constitution guarantees our liberty and not our safety.

 

[RUJohnny]

Speed limits
Seat belts
Indoor smoking
Drinking and driving
Clean water
Vaccination laws
The dozens of food safety laws and inspection / enforcement apparatus built around them
Same laws safety around practice of medicine / selling of drugs
Workplace safety laws and enforcement
Building / construction laws

This would be a great starting point for a new OT thread.

 

[SouthJerseyRU]

Just curious. As of Monday, is WFH done for most in our area? More worried about more people gathered indoors. Yes, masks required in common areas, but what about those in cubicles or working 10 feet apart for prolonged periods?

View embedded media

While it is true that CV spreads more in closed, confined tight spaces then in open areas, this guy is getting killed by scientists in the media and all around for being too alarmist.

Here's a good thread about it:

 

[T2Kplus10]

Good read on the Spanish Flu and Babe Ruth:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/when-babe-ruth-and-great-influenza-gripped-boston-180974776/

 

[RUBOB72]

Not a scientist , epidemiologist or anything related to those fields however , since early on , it was claimed the virus could be transmitted through droplets in the air . There was also claims from China that AC and indoor spread was possible and it seemed feasible. So the WHO those worthless , bought , enablers are now being told to come out about airborne spread ? Hell , most in the world know and are aware that the virus , like most past viruses , spread easily by air in the form of droplets. This is exactly why people are skeptical . Tedros the magnificent and the WHO leadership is corrupt and culpable for much of the suffering throughout the world.

 

[Zimm80]

Not when that “freedom” endangers the lives of others.

Not when that “freedom” endangers the lives of others.

Younger people go to party then club over the weekend dam they had a great time, then they end up in Denys for breakfast during the week where older crowd congregates for breakfast. Older crowd goes back to their home in a 50 & older Village where they play bingo & have movie night. A few weeks later younger crowd is having fun on the beach not knowing they had the virus, while a cluster of older people are in the hospital fighting for their lives.