After American Pharoah won the Triple Crown last year it's tough to get excited for this year's Kentucky Derby. But here we are again and a young Colt named Nyquist and trainer Doug O'Neil will take their first step at a Triple Crown Championship this Saturday. I'm going to play spoiler and say Gun Runner will win the KD.
Kentucky Derby Picks?
- Thread starter RU31trap
- Start date
So Gun Runner or Creator, then. Both are 10-1 in the morning line with PPs 5 and 3, respectively.
Never heard of him. I just downloaded free past performances, studied it for a bit, and was enamoured with Nyquist - 7 starts, 7 wins. Gun Runner would be my 2nd choice.
If he stays at 3-1 I box him like a FedEx package with a few 10_1 shots and a longie Give me that old time value nag...Monmouth Park here we come.
Better put some money on the Arkansas Derby winner! Creator is following in the same footsteps as American P.
Suddenbreakingnews is a gelding who closes from far out of it. He spotted Creator weight in both Oaklawn stakes. Mohayman can be excused for the premature move while getting floated wide. Mor Spirit doesn't look like much on paper but his trainer knows how to get a horse ready for the roses. Nyquist has won at 4 different tracks included 3 graded stakes as a 2yo. Everyone questions distance and points to the fact that he drifts a bit in the stretch. He was under a hand ride in the FLA Derby so to me the added furlong doesn't seem a problem. $1 tri box 2-3-13-14-17
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The concern for me is that Nyquist has improved and has shown he could handle the distance of a 1 1/8th so the question is can he run an additional 220 yards without a grinder nipping him at the wire. If he does win the Derby he will be a heavy heavy favorite to win the Preakness. The problem of corse will be the Belmont 1 1/2 miles. The only reason I like Gun Runner is because his breeding includes Candy Ride (distance) and Giants Causeway (distance). I know Uncle Mo and Tappit are producing great colts that are precocious but the don't seem to stand the rigors of a racing season. Maybe Nyquist will prove us wrong. I love exaggerator in the slop.
I don't see a Triple Crown winner in this crop. Last year at this time it was clear the AP was special and had a shot for it. Not this year.
For tomorrow I like the long striding Mor Spirit, ironically another Baffert horse.
If Nyquist doesn't win the Derby it is very likely that we won't have a single horse run in all 3 Triple Crown races.
For tomorrow I like the long striding Mor Spirit, ironically another Baffert horse.
If Nyquist doesn't win the Derby it is very likely that we won't have a single horse run in all 3 Triple Crown races.
see the top finishers of the Santa Anita Derby along with Nyquist interchangeable and winning each leg of the triple crown - but no triple crown winner
Ironically here the last post is from Piscataway Mike (need to talk to you urgently re an overhead tarp-here in Lakewood ready to head "home"after some training that better get some respect!) to whom I owe along w Brother Tom for getting out w me last year to see the Belmont/triple crown and The Haskell. Great memories along w the Yank in 1999, yada.
I've been following the preliminary races a bit and have been feeding info to THEM. That said don't remember creator. Sans a 2nd place finish I need to remember and post later-the one horse who has stood out is Nuyquist. He won the eclipse? correct? and has dominated since then. He blew away the feared Mohaymen last race and I believe has already raced this distance.
That said for betting I'm FINALLY gonna follow the Piscataway Mike and brother method (who have a knack for hitting exactas with no racing forum or even much or any research.
With this method you exacta/box the prohibitive favorite and then bet 1-2 longshots to place. Nobody thinks the exacta will pay much but the longshot brings up the payout. I believe it is a pattern that has held somewhat for recent triple crown races. Specifically a longshot who's a great closer/pedigree? I oft look for horses who have a history of being in the money.
One bet that I'm eying that (for name's sake) Mike better take. Mo Tom is the brother's name (I believe Tom's Ready didn't make field?). Mo Tom has had 2-3 bad trips his last times out.
Like I told Mike last year re Pharoah great horses find a way to win (Pharoah won the Preakness in monsoon-like weather). I believe NYQUIST may be such a horse and this class isn't so great.
The lottery sometimes produces results together even though those numbers aren't due for awhile. Though the great Pharoah won the triple last year weve only had 1 triple crown winner recently. I'm thinking NYQUIST could be another. I won't be surprised at all if Nyquist heads to Belmont in position for the triple.
Want to review the field again /races before posting a few others. Exaggerator is another that comes to mind. Ditto Gun Runner. Everyone loved Mohaymen for awhile but can he rebound? I don't bELieve he has raced this distance.
I've been following the preliminary races a bit and have been feeding info to THEM. That said don't remember creator. Sans a 2nd place finish I need to remember and post later-the one horse who has stood out is Nuyquist. He won the eclipse? correct? and has dominated since then. He blew away the feared Mohaymen last race and I believe has already raced this distance.
That said for betting I'm FINALLY gonna follow the Piscataway Mike and brother method (who have a knack for hitting exactas with no racing forum or even much or any research.
With this method you exacta/box the prohibitive favorite and then bet 1-2 longshots to place. Nobody thinks the exacta will pay much but the longshot brings up the payout. I believe it is a pattern that has held somewhat for recent triple crown races. Specifically a longshot who's a great closer/pedigree? I oft look for horses who have a history of being in the money.
One bet that I'm eying that (for name's sake) Mike better take. Mo Tom is the brother's name (I believe Tom's Ready didn't make field?). Mo Tom has had 2-3 bad trips his last times out.
Like I told Mike last year re Pharoah great horses find a way to win (Pharoah won the Preakness in monsoon-like weather). I believe NYQUIST may be such a horse and this class isn't so great.
The lottery sometimes produces results together even though those numbers aren't due for awhile. Though the great Pharoah won the triple last year weve only had 1 triple crown winner recently. I'm thinking NYQUIST could be another. I won't be surprised at all if Nyquist heads to Belmont in position for the triple.
Want to review the field again /races before posting a few others. Exaggerator is another that comes to mind. Ditto Gun Runner. Everyone loved Mohaymen for awhile but can he rebound? I don't bELieve he has raced this distance.
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So you think that if the Derby winner lo
Please, I stopped reading right there. That is one of the great questions about the Derby contenders- the added distance.
Rac,Bingo. Just listened to Jerry Bailey who has won me a pound or two as a rider and as a pundit and he loves that exacta.
very solid choices, but a little too chalky for me
Maybe Stewart can get another long shot in the exotics (remember Golden Soul and Commanding Curve)- think I will use Tom's Ready in my boxes
I don't think these closers are gonna be there. There are too many to choose from and too much traffic
If anyone is at Monmouth tomorrow and needs a drink call 908 670 3360and I will let you buy me one...
It looked great during the Oaks today. Favorite goes down in flames.
The Japanese horse Lani is the only one in the field who has run the mile and a quarter that they'll be running in the Derby. Nyquist's longest race was 1 1/8 mile the last time out.
I didn't know that. Hopefully NBC will have him on tomorrow as an analyst. He was always fun to listen to.
Think it's funny that people make fun of NASCAR for having 40 cars at 800 horsepower 'driving in circles', but get so excited about 8 horses running in a circle.
Not sure what I'm doing on exotics yet but for a straight up win bet I think my play is going to be Exaggerator and Gun Runner. Not sure Exaggerator can get through all the traffic but his Santa Anita run was damn impressive.
Nyquist seems to be pretty special at 7 for 7. He has done nothing wrong and win today and the Triple Crown hype begins. I disagree about last year, we didnt get the American Pharoah greatness hype until after his win, he wwas only slight favorite over Dortmund. I see something similar with Nyquist. Id bet Nyquist with a bunch of 10-15-1 shots maybe Creator, maybe Mohaymen at a price for a modest payoff
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