Minor to Moderate Snow Tues Night (2/11)/Weds Morning, especially south of 80 (all snow)

[RU848789]

Short note, as I'm beat up from shoveling 1.5-2" worth of snow/sleet/rain paste last night that contained about 0.5-0.6" worth of precip. While this system looked like a significant snowstorm for everyone a few days ago, it had trended to a non-event north of Philly/SNJ through yesterday, but last night's and this morning's models have seen a decent shift northward with the storm, such that we're now looking at a minor (1-2") to moderate (2-4") event for the Philly-NJ-NYC region with the lowest amounts up towards 80 (1" or less) and the highest amounts for Philly/SNJ (3-5") with most of CNJ in the 1-3" range right now, as per the new NWS snowfall map below. The current 3" line runs from about Philly to Manasquan, while the 1" line is just south of 80.

It wouldn’t take much of a track adjustment to put CNJ back into a 2-4" swath, given the northward trend we've been seeing, plus several models show 2-4" for CNJ and 4-7" for Philly/SNJ (while the GFS is the major outlier showing only 1" or so for most of CNJ), but then again, a southward shift would decrease snowfall amounts. Not going to discuss much more about possibilities or models as it's time to go do some fun stuff today. Finally note that this will be an all snow event with no mixing, as temps should be below 32F everywhere - this makes the forecast much simpler. Also, note that it looks like we may have another snow to sleet to rain event Thursday and another likely mixed storm on Sat/Sun as the stormy pattern continues. Stay tuned.

https://www.weather.gov/phi

 

[bac2therac]

It will change several times and nws early call of 1-2 looks good

 

[Postman_1]

 

[RU848789]

It will change several times and nws early call of 1-2 looks good

You mean for your house? Because if you're talking CNJ, it's 1-3" between 78 and 195 (which are the best geographic borders of CNJ, IMO) with the 1" line a bit north of 78 and the 3" line along 195.

 

[Postman_1]

You mean for your house? Because if you're talking CNJ, it's 1-3" between 78 and 195 (which are the best geographic borders of CNJ, IMO) with the 1" line a bit north of 78 and the 3" line along 195.

People don’t feel to confident in this one on AmericanWx still. I keep reading it’s going south. Still time can change that though. Is this a daytime event on Tuesday if it happens?

 

[RocktheRac]

Southbound Express

 

[bac2therac]

You mean for your house? Because if you're talking CNJ, it's 1-3" between 78 and 195 (which are the best geographic borders of CNJ, IMO) with the 1" line a bit north of 78 and the 3" line along 195.

Somerville inch on map you posted and I'm not far south of there

 

[RU4Real]

Salt storm vs. Shovel storm.

Salt storms are way better.

 

[bac2therac]

Channel 11 had coating to an inch for central jersey likely hugging the Euro

 

[DJ Spanky]

Looks like a more southerly storm: Tyler's trying to decide what to do in VA for classes, hopefully they're cancelled.

 

[darkcheck]

Why it’s silly to look so far ahead. A week ago it was a lot snow on 2/8 than snowmageddon Tue-Thu. Now it’s nothing and nothing as usual

 

[RU848789]

Why it’s silly to look so far ahead. A week ago it was a lot snow on 2/8 than snowmageddon Tue-Thu. Now it’s nothing and nothing as usual

That's why I didn't start a thread 3 days ago when it looked like 4-8" (was never "snowmageddon") or 36 hours ago when it was looking like <1" for CNJ with more south and held off until yesterday morning before starting the thread. But we're now within range of a higher confidence forecast with 1-3" looking likely for CNJ/NYC metro and 3-5" south of 276/195. That is not "nothing."

 

[RU848789]

View embedded media

Short update, as this is a much easier system to forecast without any mixing. Latest snowfall maps for the Philly-NJ-NYC area from the NWS and Channel 7 (the best local folks, IMO) from Tuesday night through about 7 pm Wednesday with both showing similar forecasts for "wave 1" with <1" north of about 80, 1-3" from just south of 80 down to about 276/195 and 3-6" south of 276/195 (including Philly/SNJ), with the 3" line being roughly along 276/195 and specifically from Trenton to Long Branch. Given the more significant snow for SNJ, watches are up for 4-6" in SNJ south of Mercer-Monmouth (but not for Philly/SEPA), as per the map below. Snow should start around 7 pm Tuesday and go through 7 am Wednesday with little to no precip after that and through 7 pm Wednesday.

Note that this is all snow, with no mixing anywhere given temps below 32F (and generally in the upper 20s for anywhere north of 276/195), which means the snow will accumulate immediately on all surfaces, especially as it's falling at night. Also, note that the maps below are for "wave 1" with a "wave 2" coming Wednesday night through Thursday morning which shows rain south of 276/195 a mix up to 78 (with 1-2" snow possible before a changeover) and a few inches of snow north of 78, although eventually everyone should change to plain rain. I'm not really talking about that much yet as it's very much in flux on the models, but the NWS discussion below covers their forecast on that below (which is not included in their map or Channel 7's). And it's worth noting that the NWS has an unusually high amount of snow possible in their 10% chance map (with 4-7" for wave 1 for the entire region).

https://www.weather.gov/phi
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...ads-for-each-will-be-added-as-needed/page/15/

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
314 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2025

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Snow will fall Tuesday night through Wednesday morning with a
primary focus over the eastern shores of Maryland, Delaware, and
southern New Jersey, where 4 to 6 inches of snow will fall.
From along the I-95 corridor to the Fall Line, 2 to 3 inches of
snow will fall, with 1 to 2 inches over the southern Poconos,
northern New Jersey, and the Lehigh Valley. Will keep the Winter
Storm Watch in effect for the eastern shores of Maryland,
Delaware, and southern New Jersey. Behind the departure of the
secondary low, the first low that was over the Gulf Coast states
will depart off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday morning.

Another low organizes and develops over the Ark-LA-Tex area
Wednesday morning, tracks northeast during the day, and tracks
through western Pennsylvania and western New York Wednesday
night as another secondary low develops out ahead of it. That
low passes through New Jersey and will be off the Jersey Shore
late Wednesday night.

Precip Wednesday and Wednesday night will feature more in the
way of a mixed bag of wintry precip, first over Delmarva and
southern New Jersey Wednesday morning, then the wintry mix lifts
north through the day, and Wednesday night. Wintry mix changes
to plain rain from south to north Wednesday night. During this
time, snowfall will range from 1 to 2 inches over the southern
half of the forecast area, and from 2 to 3 inches over the
northern half.

 

[RU848789]

NWS issued a map through Thursday morning which includes both waves. What this shows is all rain south of 276/195 for wave 2 Weds night/Thurs morning and 1-2" of snow for areas N of 276/195 (especially N of 78) before a changeover to sleet then rain (freezing rain not predicted) late on Wednesday with 1/4" or so of rain likely after the changeover (and 1/2" of rain for those that get all rain).

 

[darkcheck]

That's why I didn't start a thread 3 days ago when it looked like 4-8" (was never "snowmageddon") or 36 hours ago when it was looking like <1" for CNJ with more south and held off until yesterday morning before starting the thread. But we're now within range of a higher confidence forecast with 1-3" looking likely for CNJ/NYC metro and 3-5" south of 276/195. That is not "nothing."

Until I need my snow blower and not just a pusher or broom it’s “nothing”. Question, what will end up being more? Inches for the whole season when all is said and done or Rutgers MBB win total? The answer is both are very disappointing.

 

[Postman_1]

NWS issued a map through Thursday morning which includes both waves. What this shows is all rain south of 276/195 for wave 2 Weds night/Thurs morning and 1-2" of snow for areas N of 276/195 (especially N of 78) before a changeover to sleet then rain (freezing rain not predicted) late on Wednesday with 1/4" or so of rain likely after the changeover (and 1/2" of rain for those that get all rain).

I’m definitely gonna make sure to shovel before the changeover to rain. Gonna be much lighter than that slop. I’m expecting 1-3” in Central Jersey. From what I see on AmericanWx forums the rest of the week looks like the usual mix slop stuff like u said south of 78.

 

[RU848789]

I’m definitely gonna make sure to shovel before the changeover to rain. Gonna be much lighter than that slop. I’m expecting 1-3” in Central Jersey. From what I see on AmericanWx forums the rest of the week looks like the usual mix slop stuff like u said south of 78.

You can probably use a broom for the light/fluffy snow we get Tues/Weds and if you're lucky the 1-2" we might get on Weds night might wash away in the rain early Thursday...

 

[DJ Spanky]

You can probably use a broom for the light/fluffy snow we get Tues/Weds and if you're lucky the 1-2" we might get on Weds night might wash away in the rain early Thursday...

What is the timing of the Tuesday storm? Any way to get the timing for when this hits Virginia? I've got Tyler in Charlottesville and a former colleague SE of Richmond asking.

 

[RU848789]

What is the timing of the Tuesday storm? Any way to get the timing for when this hits Virginia? I've got Tyler in Charlottesville and a former colleague SE of Richmond asking.

SW VA starts around sunrise tuesday, while richmond around noon and both should get 4-6"+ with SW VA maybe also getting 1/4" of freezing rain. Starts here around sunset Tuesday and should be done by sunrise Weds.

 

[bac2therac]

Separate threads for separate storms please

 

[bac2therac]

 

[bac2therac]

zarrow

On the Edge (Dark Blue)... This area of south-central is expected to fall out of the heaviest and most-prolonged snow bands. Initial snow bands should arrive by 5 p.m. Tuesday — perfect timing for the evening commute. Steady snow is possible through the evening, tapering after Midnight. Final flakes may linger through about 9 a.m. Wednesday at the latest. Expect total accumulation of 2 to 4 inches here. That is enough to cause travel disruptions, although treated major roadways should fare well. (Especially since it is all snow and not ice this time around.)

Conversational Snow (Light Blue)... North of New Brunswick, this is not your storm. Snow will not arrive until the tail-end of the evening commute, around 7 or 8 p.m. Tuesday. The window for steady snow will close around Midnight. Snow showers may linger through about 9 a.m. Wednesday at the latest. I think you will see some wintry weather and light accumulations, on the order of an inch or two. Barely enough to shovel, but there could be slippery spots.

Hardly Anything (White)... North Jersey gets a break from snow and ice from this particular storm, as most precipitation stays south. Some snowflakes are possible eventually (although not guaranteed) along and north of the I-80 corridor. But it probably will not start until after 9 or 10 p.m. Tuesday. And then wrapping up early Wednesday morning, with final snowflakes by 9 a.m. at the latest. I will put a precautionary "up to an inch" forecast here, but do not expect much.

 

[CodyRU]

Another south jersey special? To what do I owe the pleasure?

 

[RULoyal]

I think this is new product - apologies if not

Probabilistic Precipitation Portal​

 

[CodyRU]

I think this is new product - apologies if not

Probabilistic Precipitation Portal​

That's pretty neat

 

[RU848789]

I think this is new product - apologies if not

Probabilistic Precipitation Portal​

Never seen it or noticed this before, so I'm thinking it's new - will ask one of the mets I chat with occasionally who's based in Mt. Holly. Pretty cool tool, especially the ability to zoom in or out on any location/NWS office region and set time periods instead of only ever being able to see what they post on their winter weather page. Thanks for posting!

 

[RU848789]

Separate threads for separate storms please

I see your point, but not sure it makes sense to separate them since wave 2 starts only about 12 hours after wave 1 and we're going to get forecasts combined for both. Maybe this new NWS snowfall tool would help.

 

[bac2therac]

I see your point, but not sure it makes sense to separate them since wave 2 starts only about 12 hours after wave 1 and we're going to get forecasts combined for both. Maybe this new NWS snowfall tool would help.

seperate threads for seperate events for many reason

first of all the first event effects the southern areas more than the northern areas
second the 2nd event effects the northern areas more than the southern areas
completely different type events..first one all snow, 2nd one will have mixing issues which need to be hammered
in addition there is a Iowa basketball game and a heads up single thread would be more beneficial as everyone is concentrating on the first event right now and a specific forecast for gametime is going to be needed if starts early and its sleet


@Tango Two you want to do your thing

 

[RU848789]

seperate threads for seperate events for many reason

first of all the first event effects the southern areas more than the northern areas
second the 2nd event effects the northern areas more than the southern areas
completely different type events..first one all snow, 2nd one will have mixing issues which need to be hammered
in addition there is a Iowa basketball game and a heads up single thread would be more beneficial as everyone is concentrating on the first event right now


@TangoTwo, you want to do your thing

Good points. I can start one or you or Tango can, doesn't really matter to me, since it's likely to be fairly minor. I do like this new NWS tool, though, as this is the expected snowfall just from wave 2 from 7 am Weds to 7 am Thurs, although most of the precip looks like it'll fall after 10 pm Wednesday night, so hopefully minimal impact on the game.

Oh wait, this tool is even cooler as it allows one to create a NWS-style graphic for snowfall (my first graphic above was just a screen grab), which is nice. And one can hover the cursor over any location and get a snowfall estimate which might be the coolest feature of all. I may have to buy @RULoyal a drink (or catch him a t-shirt lol).

 

[bac2therac]

well if start time is during the Iowa game it can be problematic

 

[RU848789]

well if start time is during the Iowa game it can be problematic

Most models hold off on accumulating snow until after 7 pm, but starting before 10 pm, so that's a close call with the game being over around 8:30-9:00 - still 54 hrs from the game and those times can change, so might be an issue, might not...

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

well if start time is during the Iowa game it can be problematic

Focus on Ace’s health.

 

[bac2therac]

Most models hold off on accumulating snow until after 7 pm, but starting before 10 pm, so that's a close call with the game being over around 8:30-9:00 - still 54 hrs from the game and those times can change, so might be an issue, might not...

hopefully gets pushed back

i dont like nws putting out a map combining both storms....2-6...the events are more than 12 hours apart...

 

[bac2therac]

Focus on Ace’s health.

maybe he shouldnt attend high school basketball games during the week

also if Pike cannot at home beat a reeling Fran with a 17ppg scorer out for Iowa then we have bigger issues to worry about

 

[RU848789]

hopefully gets pushed back

i dont like nws putting out a map combining both storms....2-6...the events are more than 12 hours apart...

thread posted...

 

[RU4Real]

You can probably use a broom for the light/fluffy snow we get Tues/Weds and if you're lucky the 1-2" we might get on Weds night might wash away in the rain early Thursday...

Salt storm. Yeah.

 

[bac2therac]

thread posted...

appreciate you🤙

 

[RU848789]

Short note, as I'm beat up from shoveling 1.5-2" worth of snow/sleet/rain paste last night that contained about 0.5-0.6" worth of precip. While this system looked like a significant snowstorm for everyone a few days ago, it had trended to a non-event north of Philly/SNJ through yesterday, but last night's and this morning's models have seen a decent shift northward with the storm, such that we're now looking at a minor (1-2") to moderate (2-4") event for the Philly-NJ-NYC region with the lowest amounts up towards 80 (1" or less) and the highest amounts for Philly/SNJ (3-5") with most of CNJ in the 1-3" range right now, as per the new NWS snowfall map below. The current 3" line runs from about Philly to Manasquan, while the 1" line is just south of 80.

It wouldn’t take much of a track adjustment to put CNJ back into a 2-4" swath, given the northward trend we've been seeing, plus several models show 2-4" for CNJ and 4-7" for Philly/SNJ (while the GFS is the major outlier showing only 1" or so for most of CNJ), but then again, a southward shift would decrease snowfall amounts. Not going to discuss much more about possibilities or models as it's time to go do some fun stuff today. Finally note that this will be an all snow event with no mixing, as temps should be below 32F everywhere - this makes the forecast much simpler. Also, note that it looks like we may have another snow to sleet to rain event Thursday and another likely mixed storm on Sat/Sun as the stormy pattern continues. Stay tuned.

https://www.weather.gov/phi

NWS updated map is below and it increases snowfall just a tad for most vs. this morning, moving the 3" line further north to about Trenton to Sandy Hook and moving the 2" line north to about Frenchtown to Central Park and increased amounts decently for SEPA/SNJ and put warnings up for 4-6" for Cumberland, Atlantic and Cape May counties, and advisories for 2-4" for Philly/SEPA and all of SNJ south of Mercer/Monmouth. Should be a nice dry, fluffy snow for a change for everyone and will accumulate immediately with temps below 32F everywhere; the Weds am rush hour could be difficult (and conditions will likely be slippery starting Tuesday evening).

 

[RU848789]

appreciate you🤙

You had good comments and rationale for the separate thread. Now let's finish 7-0 and celebrate on the floor again like we did after the MD game in 2020! :>)

 

[ClassOf02]

thread posted...

appreciate you🤙

You had good comments and rationale for the separate thread. Now let's finish 7-0 and celebrate on the floor again like we did after the MD game in 2020! :>)

Shit’s gettin weird around here…