.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 am update: Band of
heavy snow continues along/northwest of
the
Fall Line, but the precip is quickly winding down in south-
central Pennsylvania, with drier air quickly moving into
portions of Delmarva as well. Wintry mix of rain/sleet/snow has
struggled to accumulate this morning along/south of the I-76
corridor, so have cancelled the advisory south of here. Several
3-5 inch totals have come in from the
heavy snow band north/west
of the
metro, so the advisory has materialized here quite well.
06Z and subsequent
hi-res models have adjusted the main snow
band axis southward...so the uncertainty in the banding existed
right until the event started.
Will
likely need to trim the advisory from south and west even
more during the next couple of hours as precipitation begins
tapering off and surface temperatures begin to climb.
600 am update: A band of
heavy snow has developed from Berks
County east-northeast through the Lehigh Valley into northern
New Jersey (Somerset/Warren/Hunterdon/Morris Counties). Recent
snowfall reports from these areas and somewhat farther to the
north suggest 1+" inch per hour snow rates are occurring within
this band. Surface temperatures are near or slightly above
freezing in this band, so pavement may be slow to accumulate
initially, but given the rates being observed here, expect
travel to become treacherous in this corridor in the next 1-2
hours. Accumulations within this band may be slightly higher
than forecast locally (perhaps 3-6 inches in this corridor).
Meanwhile, snow reports of 1-3 inches have been received in
Carbon/Monroe/Sussex Counties, with the highest elevations
receiving a little bit more. A heavier round of snow is expected
within the next 1-4 hours, so accumulations here were
unchanged. All in all, the event is unfolding reasonably closely
to the forecast.
As alluded to in the previous discussion (below), any snow/sleet
accumulations in the southern tier of the advisory area look
minor at best. Trimmed Cecil/New Castle/Salem Counties with this
update, and may trim portions of the Philadelphia metropolitan
area eastward to southeast Burlington County in the next hour or
two if trends continue.