OT: Round 2 Rainstorm 1/12 (not as bad as round 1); Rainstorm 1/9-10 - Major Urban/Stream Flooding, High Winds and Coastal Flooding Likely
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This is gonna suck for the morning commute on Wednesday. Wonder how bad the flooding will be. About 1-2 decades ago the army corp of engineers reworked the dam on the Ramapo River just above Hamburg Tpk in Wayne. Ever since, whenever we get flooding that part of the road is always at risk. This past storm ended up closing it for about 10 days. Good job by the army corp of engineers!
Mt Holly disco
A strong upper-level trough will lift across the eastern U.S.
Tuesday into Wednesday, and it will drive a powerful surface
low up the Ohio Valley and across the eastern to central Great
Lakes. This will place our region on the warmer side and
therefore mostly rain is expected. There is however a short
window of opportunity that it starts as some snow or a mix
mainly north and west of I-95 (perhaps some light accumulations
across parts of the northwestern zones), however with robust
warm air advection any of this will quickly change to rain. The
rain will become heavy at times especially late Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night before tapering off to some showers
Wednesday morning. A southeasterly 925 mb jet on the order of
50-75 knots later Tuesday and Tuesday night will advect in ample
moisture off the Atlantic. In addition, this flow veers to
southwesterly at 500 mb and increases to 80-110 knots. The
guidance shows an extensive plume of high precipitable water
(1.0-1.5 inches) for this time of year connected all the way
into the western Caribbean. This amount of moisture along with
strong forcing for ascent will bring widespread rain (2-3 inches
likely, with 4 inches possible) across the entire region with
the heaviest occurring Tuesday night. A period of enhanced
rainfall rates combined with already saturated ground, which
will be even more swollen given snow melt across the northern
areas, will significantly increase the flooding risk. Due to the
combination of all of these factors, a Flood Watch has been
issued for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.
The upper-level trough or closed low may take on a negative
tilt Tuesday night, and this may inject some elevated
instability especially closer to frontal passage and therefore a
few rumbles of thunder could be possible. The thunder potential
remains low confidence, but something to watch especially given
the intense wind field not all that far above the surface ahead
of the cold front.
The extremely strong low-level jet combined with a tightening
surface pressure gradient will lead to strong winds particularly
Tuesday night into early Wednesday. However, strong low-level
warm air advection and deep moist profiles may prevent at least
some of the strongest winds from mixing down to the surface.
Inland, the strongest sustained winds Tuesday night are
forecast to be 25 to 35 mph with gusts generally around 40 to
50 mph. Along the immediate coast, an area of stronger winds is
likely due to the decreased friction over the open waters with
the southeasterly low-level winds. At the immediate coast,
sustained winds are forecast to be 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to
60 mph possible. With the potential for the strongest gusts to
be damaging, a High Wind Watch has been issued for the coastal
strips of New Jersey and Delaware.
A strong upper-level trough will lift across the eastern U.S.
Tuesday into Wednesday, and it will drive a powerful surface
low up the Ohio Valley and across the eastern to central Great
Lakes. This will place our region on the warmer side and
therefore mostly rain is expected. There is however a short
window of opportunity that it starts as some snow or a mix
mainly north and west of I-95 (perhaps some light accumulations
across parts of the northwestern zones), however with robust
warm air advection any of this will quickly change to rain. The
rain will become heavy at times especially late Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night before tapering off to some showers
Wednesday morning. A southeasterly 925 mb jet on the order of
50-75 knots later Tuesday and Tuesday night will advect in ample
moisture off the Atlantic. In addition, this flow veers to
southwesterly at 500 mb and increases to 80-110 knots. The
guidance shows an extensive plume of high precipitable water
(1.0-1.5 inches) for this time of year connected all the way
into the western Caribbean. This amount of moisture along with
strong forcing for ascent will bring widespread rain (2-3 inches
likely, with 4 inches possible) across the entire region with
the heaviest occurring Tuesday night. A period of enhanced
rainfall rates combined with already saturated ground, which
will be even more swollen given snow melt across the northern
areas, will significantly increase the flooding risk. Due to the
combination of all of these factors, a Flood Watch has been
issued for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.
The upper-level trough or closed low may take on a negative
tilt Tuesday night, and this may inject some elevated
instability especially closer to frontal passage and therefore a
few rumbles of thunder could be possible. The thunder potential
remains low confidence, but something to watch especially given
the intense wind field not all that far above the surface ahead
of the cold front.
The extremely strong low-level jet combined with a tightening
surface pressure gradient will lead to strong winds particularly
Tuesday night into early Wednesday. However, strong low-level
warm air advection and deep moist profiles may prevent at least
some of the strongest winds from mixing down to the surface.
Inland, the strongest sustained winds Tuesday night are
forecast to be 25 to 35 mph with gusts generally around 40 to
50 mph. Along the immediate coast, an area of stronger winds is
likely due to the decreased friction over the open waters with
the southeasterly low-level winds. At the immediate coast,
sustained winds are forecast to be 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to
60 mph possible. With the potential for the strongest gusts to
be damaging, a High Wind Watch has been issued for the coastal
strips of New Jersey and Delaware.
Glad I just finished the french drain in the basement to stop the small leaks I get 4 or 5 times a year. Second one I've done myself. This storm will be a good test for it.
(3) This morning on 18th Avenue by the Wall High School Athletic Complex.
Same thing.
Looking at the projected winds for Allenwood, NJ (Wall/Herbertville), and dont see anything too concerning?
The gust numbers are a little concerning considering the length of time.Looking at the projected winds for Allenwood, NJ (Wall/Herbertville), and dont see anything too concerning?
Those are serious gusts. If they verify, with fully saturated (and beyond) soils, we're going to see a fair number of trees come down. Nearly 3" of rain won't help either.Looking at the projected winds for Allenwood, NJ (Wall/Herbertville), and dont see anything too concerning?
With regard to potential urban, stream/river and coastal flooding, the following from the NWS is sobering. Flood watches are up for the entire region and coastal flood watches are up for the tidal Delaware River and the Chesapeake Bay with coastal flood watches likely going up for the NJ Shore tomorrow. And if we see the high short term rainfall rates that are possible, we'll also likely have a bunch of flash flood warnings crop up.
.HYDROLOGY...
Flooding risk increasing for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tuesday and Wednesday storm...A powerful storm system with a
deep moisture plume from the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic and
even connected to the western Caribbean will impact our area.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches is probable (4 inches
possible) with the potential for moderate to major flooding on
some of our rivers later Tuesday and beyond. The heaviest rain
looks to occur Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. There
is a heightened concern for the Passaic and Raritan basins as
well as some of the rivers in southeastern Pennsylvania
especially the faster responding ones. Given the very saturated
ground, another round of heavy rain and snow melt across the
northern areas, will all lead to more runoff into the waterways.
In addition, a period of enhanced rainfall rates looks probable
Tuesday night and this could lead to urban flooding. Even some
flash flooding is possible, especially if the higher hourly
rainfall rates occur particularly within the more urban areas.
Tidal areas may also experience even higher levels during high
tides due to excessive runoff and a period of very strong east
to southeast winds. The MODERATE risk (level 3 out of 4) for
excessive rainfall remains unchanged and covers from northern
New Jersey west and southwestward to include central New
Jersey, southeastern Pennsylvania, and near far northern
Delaware. A SLIGHT risk (level 2 out of 4) covers the rest of
our region.
To keep on top of the flooding potential, check out these
websites:
Flooding threat in terms of probabilities, check out this
Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast link: weather.gov/erh/mmefs
Five Day Significant Flood Outlook:
weather.gov/marfc/Flood_Outlook
There is the familiar AHPS website, however you can now preview
our new experimental National Water Prediction Service (NWPS)
website (NWPS will eventually replace AHPS):
preview.water.noaa.gov
If you live in the Passaic or Raritan basins, keep in mind that
inundation mapping is available:
water.weather.gov/AHPS/inundation.php
To view river observations and forecasts in table form, check
out our dashboard: weather.gov/phi/hydrodashboard
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels are finally diminishing below flood thresholds in
Barnegat Bay so we are allowing the Coastal Flood Advisory to
expire at 10 PM. Otherwise, attention turns to what is expected
to be a much more impactful tidal flooding event by late
Tuesday into Wednesday. This is detailed below...
Tuesday and Wednesday...A powerful storm system will impact the
region. An intense southeasterly wind field will coincide with the
New Moon on Thursday (January 11th). As a result, coastal flooding
is probable and potentially significant and widespread. Excessive
runoff may significantly enhance the flooding especially if timed
with the high tides. At this point, we expect the most significant
flooding to occur along the Chesapeake, affecting our eastern
MD counties, and in the upper Delaware Bay as well as the tidal
Delaware. This will be due to strong south/southeast winds
funneling water up the bays. Coastal Flood Watches have been
issued with this update for these areas. Worth noting, we began
the Watch starting Tuesday afternoon for our eastern MD counties
as minor tidal flooding is likely with this high tide cycle.
However the strong southerly surge of wind and water will lead
to water levels continuing to rise into Tuesday night with the
most significant flooding occuring here overnight. There will
also be the potential for impactful coastal flooding for the
lower Delaware Bay and Atlantic coastal NJ though there is more
uncertainty here regarding how significant it will be so we`ve
held off on a Watch here at this time.
.HYDROLOGY...
Flooding risk increasing for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tuesday and Wednesday storm...A powerful storm system with a
deep moisture plume from the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic and
even connected to the western Caribbean will impact our area.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches is probable (4 inches
possible) with the potential for moderate to major flooding on
some of our rivers later Tuesday and beyond. The heaviest rain
looks to occur Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. There
is a heightened concern for the Passaic and Raritan basins as
well as some of the rivers in southeastern Pennsylvania
especially the faster responding ones. Given the very saturated
ground, another round of heavy rain and snow melt across the
northern areas, will all lead to more runoff into the waterways.
In addition, a period of enhanced rainfall rates looks probable
Tuesday night and this could lead to urban flooding. Even some
flash flooding is possible, especially if the higher hourly
rainfall rates occur particularly within the more urban areas.
Tidal areas may also experience even higher levels during high
tides due to excessive runoff and a period of very strong east
to southeast winds. The MODERATE risk (level 3 out of 4) for
excessive rainfall remains unchanged and covers from northern
New Jersey west and southwestward to include central New
Jersey, southeastern Pennsylvania, and near far northern
Delaware. A SLIGHT risk (level 2 out of 4) covers the rest of
our region.
To keep on top of the flooding potential, check out these
websites:
Flooding threat in terms of probabilities, check out this
Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast link: weather.gov/erh/mmefs
Five Day Significant Flood Outlook:
weather.gov/marfc/Flood_Outlook
There is the familiar AHPS website, however you can now preview
our new experimental National Water Prediction Service (NWPS)
website (NWPS will eventually replace AHPS):
preview.water.noaa.gov
If you live in the Passaic or Raritan basins, keep in mind that
inundation mapping is available:
water.weather.gov/AHPS/inundation.php
To view river observations and forecasts in table form, check
out our dashboard: weather.gov/phi/hydrodashboard
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels are finally diminishing below flood thresholds in
Barnegat Bay so we are allowing the Coastal Flood Advisory to
expire at 10 PM. Otherwise, attention turns to what is expected
to be a much more impactful tidal flooding event by late
Tuesday into Wednesday. This is detailed below...
Tuesday and Wednesday...A powerful storm system will impact the
region. An intense southeasterly wind field will coincide with the
New Moon on Thursday (January 11th). As a result, coastal flooding
is probable and potentially significant and widespread. Excessive
runoff may significantly enhance the flooding especially if timed
with the high tides. At this point, we expect the most significant
flooding to occur along the Chesapeake, affecting our eastern
MD counties, and in the upper Delaware Bay as well as the tidal
Delaware. This will be due to strong south/southeast winds
funneling water up the bays. Coastal Flood Watches have been
issued with this update for these areas. Worth noting, we began
the Watch starting Tuesday afternoon for our eastern MD counties
as minor tidal flooding is likely with this high tide cycle.
However the strong southerly surge of wind and water will lead
to water levels continuing to rise into Tuesday night with the
most significant flooding occuring here overnight. There will
also be the potential for impactful coastal flooding for the
lower Delaware Bay and Atlantic coastal NJ though there is more
uncertainty here regarding how significant it will be so we`ve
held off on a Watch here at this time.
You still don’t think they’ll postpone the game as the Raritan is expected to flood and it is fairly near the Rutgers campus and majority of the fanbase will be coming that way and could be at risk?
So it's going be windy and its going to rain a lot.
OMG.
You rain weenies are too much.
There is no threat of flooding that much. People cross over the Rt 18 Bridge as Landing Lane Bridge is already closed. There are no dangerous low roads by the RAC and there are plenty alternatives to those that usually drive River Road. The bigger threat is a power outage because of the high winds.
Gotcha
Are usually take River Road to 18, or sometimes Easton Avenue. Debating to take either Steelton or South Randolphville, or the exit 6 (not towards Dunelllon) off 287 this time, thoughts on the better route?
The more severe flooding will be overnight and into the morning, but there may be some impact during/after the game. Enough to keep people away, imo... I'm on the fence about going, myself, as I have to travel about 45 min through areas prone to flooding.
I get to the game by taking Amwell from Hillsborough into Somerset...but crossing the Millstone might be an issue even though its more likely it will be overnight into Wednesday that it likely rises...another option is Weston Canal to 287 but again that could be an issue on the way home. Raritan flooded down 206 last month although it took sometime. Peeps might not want to take the risk of what happens AFTER the game.
Close to a zero chance of the RAC being impacted and if there is going to be river flooding from the Raritan (like the flooding that postponed the RU football game after Ida), that won't happen until well after the rain is over, which would be Wednesday at the earliest. Heavy rain and gusty winds are not reasons to cancel the game. The biggest risk to attendance at the game is the shitty way the team has been playing.
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For those interested in the hourly conditions, here's the NWS hourly forecast for the RAC area...
not true....biggest impact of storm intensity at exactly when people are travelling to and leaving the game....5-11 time period with the heaviest rains is plenty to scare people away. Stop being so selfish, its not about you, its about what others want to risk
Rain wishcasting.
We're talking about rain, not a blizzard, nor a hurricane...rain. We're talking about rain.
Yeah, I have to go a bit further, first through the dip at Zion/River/Amwell, usually up to Weston Canal to 287. May be a game time decision.
Is this a serious post? I never said anything about there being no impacts all over the place due to urban flooding and eventual stream flooding - have you even read my posts? I've been warning people about this storm and the potential flooding impacts for a week now.
All I said was there would be no impact to the RAC and that the game would not be cancelled from ~1" of rain and winds gusting to 40 mph through 9 pm and that river flooding will not be an issue until well after the game, all of which are true. People should absolutely be aware of the road conditions in their area that night and make their own decisions about travel.
The RAC won't be directly affected unless the roof leaks. But getting there from certain areas could be problematic (or more likely, getting back home) as low lying areas along your route flood get closed off. Little culverts end up getting inundated, and then you have to figure out how to get around the closure.
Agreed, the threat to the game is very low, but there are travel risks anytime there is heavy rain, especially if there is heavy rainfall rate over one area for awhile, which could lead to urban/flash flooding, which is why people need to check NWS sources before driving in such conditions.
But the biggest impact from this storm is very likely to be stream/river flooding which very likely won't get going in earnest until well after 1 am Weds (and most likely not until sunrise Weds) as per the flood prediction forecasts, so those risks will not be in play for the game. The coastal flooding risks for the Delaware River up past Trenton and for the Cheseapeake are also significant, while the NJ Shore coastal flooding looks to remain minor as of now, but again, those aren't really risks for the game, per se.
https://www.weather.gov/marfc/
Here ya go:
Free Accurate Forecast for NB
Complete, updated, free and accurate. With Zero BS. Enjoy!
All Locations Available!
Free Accurate Forecast for NB
Complete, updated, free and accurate. With Zero BS. Enjoy!
All Locations Available!
For a guy who says weather threads are useless, you sure spend a lot of time posting in them.
From probably the most predatory, slimy source out there, lol. They're well known for trying to generate clicks, especially as they're the ones who started putting out 45 and then even 90 day forecasts, which are 100% useless. They also wanted to privatize the NWS and have private companies charging for weather data and forecasts. I'm sure their short-term forecasts are fine, but why give clicks to a company like that?
https://www.sciencealert.com/how-many-days-can-you-trust-the-weather-forecast-for
Says a guy who starts weather threads on a football board to generate clicks.
Some serious rainfall expected, with the heaviest rains forecast to be right over the Passaic and Raritan River basins. The 2nd graphic shows the overview of predicted max flooding levels for all of the major river basins in our region, with the purple ones indicating major flood stage being reached and the red ones indicating moderate flood stage being reached. One can then click on the dot and get the full flooding forecast for this storm for any individual river gauge - I included the Passaic at Pine Brook (showing major flooding) and the Raritan at Bound Brook (showing almost major flooding), below, as examples.
This is exactly the kind of important rainfall/flooding data one can get from a friggin app. Not.
https://www.weather.gov/marfc/
This is exactly the kind of important rainfall/flooding data one can get from a friggin app. Not.
https://www.weather.gov/marfc/
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