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OT: Minor snowfall on Sunday, 2/13? And warmer-than-normal pattern for the 2nd half of Feb

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RU848789

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After this week's brief warm-up. which will last through Saturday, the cold rushes in Saturday night and we could see some light snow on Sunday morning into the afternoon, with up to an inch possible along the 95 corridor from Philly-NJ-NYC and perhaps up to 2" near the coast (with little to no snow well NW of 95). With temps below 32F, it's likely any snow that falls will accumulate on all surfaces. This is still almost 3 days away (too early for snowfall forecasts) and there is the potential for this to be a bit snowier (2-4" have been seen on the occasional model run), but there's also the potential for little to no snow for everyone. Since this is Super Bowl Sunday, people ought to be aware of the chance of some snow.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56799-possible-east-coast-storm-213-214/page/3/

After this threat and a couple of days of cold temps, we warm up by mid-next week and expect warmer than normal conditions from about mid-February through the end of the month (see the CPC graphic below), as a pattern flip is expected. It's expected we'll move from a pattern with jet stream going up and over a strong high over the Pac NW (keeping the west warm) and then diving down through the center of the country, carving out a large trough in the eastern 1/2 of the nation, with colder than normal temps, to a pattern with the trough over the west and a large southeastern ridge (high) over the eastern US, bringing warmth to the east. The long range ensemble forecasts also predict the development of an EPO+/AO+/PNA- pattern by the end of next week and that kind of pattern clearly favors above to well above normal temperatures in much of the eastern 1/3 of the country, including the NE US. None of this means snow can't happen during a pattern like this in February, but it's just a lot less likely.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2046-winter-21-22-weather-pattern-storm-threat-discussion/page/553/


Qd7h0Jn.png
 
So, since this is a minor event the number of pages might not be more then 50 - 60? Go ahead hit away.
 
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For the latter part of February we're going to need continuous updates as to how much warmer than normal the daily temperature is.
 
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For the latter part of February we're going to need continuous updates as to how much warmer than normal the daily temperature is.
It’s the silver lining of climate change. In 20 yrs I won’t have to move sound to a warmer climate . It’s moving north for me.
 
I see signs of positive thread development on the basketball board with strong chance for overheated exchanges as February closes out and, as of now, models show deflation tendencies for March but it is too early to tell and is highly variable.. we hope.
 
After this week's brief warm-up. which will last through Saturday, the cold rushes in Saturday night and we could see some light snow on Sunday morning into the afternoon, with up to an inch possible along the 95 corridor from Philly-NJ-NYC and perhaps up to 2" near the coast (with little to no snow well NW of 95). With temps below 32F, it's likely any snow that falls will accumulate on all surfaces. This is still almost 3 days away (too early for snowfall forecasts) and there is the potential for this to be a bit snowier (2-4" have been seen on the occasional model run), but there's also the potential for little to no snow for everyone. Since this is Super Bowl Sunday, people ought to be aware of the chance of some snow.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56799-possible-east-coast-storm-213-214/page/3/

After this threat and a couple of days of cold temps, we warm up by mid-next week and expect warmer than normal conditions from about mid-February through the end of the month (see the CPC graphic below), as a pattern flip is expected. It's expected we'll move from a pattern with jet stream going up and over a strong high over the Pac NW (keeping the west warm) and then diving down through the center of the country, carving out a large trough in the eastern 1/2 of the nation, with colder than normal temps, to a pattern with the trough over the west and a large southeastern ridge (high) over the eastern US, bringing warmth to the east. The long range ensemble forecasts also predict the development of an EPO+/AO+/PNA- pattern by the end of next week and that kind of pattern clearly favors above to well above normal temperatures in much of the eastern 1/3 of the country, including the NE US. None of this means snow can't happen during a pattern like this in February, but it's just a lot less likely.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2046-winter-21-22-weather-pattern-storm-threat-discussion/page/553/


Qd7h0Jn.png
I hate February. My birthday is tomorrow, was born in a blizzard. Have a raging ear infection and I’m allergic to penicillin. Always get sick on birthdays.
 
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I hate February. My birthday is tomorrow, was born in a blizzard. Have a raging ear infection and I’m allergic to penicillin. Always get sick on birthdays.
As long as the birthdays don't get sick of you and do something about it you are okay.

Happy Birthday....
eeyore-winnie-the-pooh.gif
 
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I hate February. My birthday is tomorrow, was born in a blizzard. Have a raging ear infection and I’m allergic to penicillin. Always get sick on birthdays.
I was also born in Feb., during a large snowstorm. I don’t like the winter but ironically like big snowstorms. Summer into the fall is my favorite time of year. I like that 2nd half of Feb. forecast but March is a terrible month…completely schizophrenic weather.
 
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Chance of snow accumulation at the shore:

0652fad6-b904-475c-8745-625c53fa8f3c_text.gif


NWS has 40% chance of snow and no accumulation potential listed.
May have invoked the jinx, and this will make @RU848789 a little giddy.

The forecast for Allenwood/Wall for Saturday night now says:
"A chance of snow, mainly after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 28. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible."
 
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