OT: NEW EVERYTHING / ANYTHING COVID-19 THREAD PART II
- Thread starter Richie O
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President says everyone should be able to watch fireworks together for the 4th. By May 1st all should be able to get the vaccine.
Actually read an article today where Fauci said he was shocked at the 550,000 deaths. He said the problem was mixed messages at the very beginning, and he said it as if he wasn't a part of that mix message, unforkin real.
Which also confirms all that we did, didn't save life's just spread them out for a year. Helped hospitals but just kicked the can down the road.
No, there is a far simpler explanation for why New Jersey and New York lead the country in deaths. Please read what I posted about this a week ago. Thoroughly.
Summary: Wanted to elaborate on the post above, by comparing death rates per capita in New Jersey/New York vs. other states, showing how we would've had far lower rates if we weren't hit so early and so hard. This is because I see so many people who say that NJ/NY (and other NE US states like MA/RI/CT) have "done horribly" during the pandemic because our deaths, per capita, are the 1st and 2nd highest in the US (at around 2400-2600 deaths/1MM). NJ/NY would both have death rates ranging from near the middle of the pack in the US to well below the middle of the pack for death rates per capita in the US, depending on which of 2 scenarios played out with regard to being the first ones hit and hit so hard and having such high, exponential death rates early on (twice what was seen in later waves), which is easy to see when comparing against a more "typical" state, like Texas or Florida or California, which were barely hit in the spring, but hit hard in the summer and harder in the winter. NY/NJ had 50-60% of our deaths in the spring, while most states typically had only ~10% of their deaths in the spring.
Details: As per numerous previous posts of mine, the deaths per hospitalization in the spring wave in NJ/NY were double what was seen during the summer in the 2nd wave all over the US and in the winter wave all over the US, including NJ/NY. This halving of death rates, post-spring was largely due to having more efficaceous treatments and having significantly improved medical procedures (especially on dealing with anoxic/ventilated patients), which were developed by the end of the spring wave (we were the guinea pigs). All of the deaths/death rate/population data, below are from Worldometers:
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...es-interventions-and-more.198855/post-4685139
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
And keep in mind that we're comparing crappy to really crappy performance in the US relative to a host of East Asian and African countries that have per capita death rates that are 1/20th to 1/100th of the US's (and most of Europe/South America too), mostly due to far better testing-tracing-isolating, augmented by better masking/distancing. I just wanted to show that NJ and NY are nowhere near the crappiest if one takes into account how early and hard we were hit (including the much higher deaths/hosp we absorbed in the spring).
𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟭: 𝗛𝗮𝗹𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝘀/𝗛𝗼𝘀𝗽 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗡𝗝/𝗡𝗬:
If one halves the deaths/hosp for the spring wave, then NJ/NY both drop to about 1640-1780 deaths/1MM, which would put both states in the 15-25th range in the US, given that both NJ/NY had 50-60% of their deaths in the spring, when death rates per hospitalization were much greater, while the vast majority of states had ~10% (or less) of their deaths in the spring. Specifically, NJ had about 15,040 deaths in the spring and 8310 since spring, so that would've been about 15,830 (15,040/2 + 8310) deaths/8.88MM or 1780 deaths/1MM, while NY had about 32,000 deaths in the spring and 16,000 since the spring, so that would've been about 32,000 deaths (32K/2 + 16K)/19.45MM or 1645 deaths/1MM.
𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟮: 𝗛𝗮𝗹𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝘀/𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗽 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝗮𝗹𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝗡𝗝/𝗡𝗬
In addition to being hit first, we had almost no interventions in place when the virus was silently multiplying exponentially in the densest population areas in the country (with very high commuting densities). Again, as I posted many times back in the spring, if we had had any testing in place we could have put interventions like distancing/masking in place well before mid/late March, when testing started getting going, and likely avoided a large chunk of those spring cases/deaths on top of halving the death rates as discussed above. We also would've likely started the stay-at-home orders 1-2 weeks earlier, which several studies have said would've saved 50-80% of the lives lost in wave 1. Even if it was just a 50% reduction in cases/deaths, that added on top of halving the deaths per hospitalization in the spring, would've dropped NJ/NY even further down in death rates, overall.
If we had had 50% less cases/deaths in the spring due to better testing and earlier interventions and had the lower death rates in the spring that other states have seen since summer (meaning roughly 1/4 the deaths we had in the spring), NJ would have had 12,070 total deaths (3760 in spring vs. 15,040 actually in the spring, plus 8310 since spring), which translates to about half of the current 23.2K NJ deaths, which would bring the per capita death rate down from 2640 to 1360/1MM, which would place NJ at about 30th in the US. And NY would have had 24,000 total deaths (8000 in spring vs. 32,000 actually in the spring, plus 16,000 since spring), which translates to about half of the current 48K NY deaths, which would bring the per capita death rate down from 2480 to 1240/1MM, which would place NY at 34th in the US. Both states would have lower death rates per capita than Texas (1540/1MM) and Florida (1470 deaths/1MM), if we had not been hit first and so hard.
𝗗𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝘀/𝟭𝗠𝗠 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀
And if we wanted to see how states have done since the first wave, which nobody was really prepared for, but which NJ/NY were hit far harder in, as detailed above, things really get interesting. Just looking at deaths per 1MM people in selected states (mostly the ones I've discussed before, as per the post linked above), since the end of May, it shows that NJ/NY have better records than most other states (would be in the 35-40th range out of 50 states). People in this area have responded pretty well and only had one significant peak since spring, which was half the peak (in hospitalizations) vs. the spring and had about 1/4 the death rate vs. spring, due to the improved treatments/procedures as discussed previously. I'm only showing the graphs (from the link below) for NJ/NY/FL/TX, just to show the shapes of the trajectories of cases/hosp/deaths.
https://covidtracking.com/data
Arizona: 15,183 deaths/7.28MM = 2085 deaths/1MM
South Dakota: 1832 deaths/0.88MM = 2081 deaths/1MM
Texas: 42,561 deaths/28.99MM = 1468 deaths/1MM
Florida: 28,826 deaths/21.48MM = 1340 deaths/1MM
Calilfornia: 48,801 deaths/39.51MM = 1235 deaths/1MM
New Jersey: 10,049 deaths/8.88MM = 1131 deaths/1MM
New York: 17.675 deaths/19.45MM = 908 deaths/1MM
Numbers good evening my friend. After what I heard from JB tonight and what Fauci said earlier I make one determination . It is now a real fear campaign directed against US citizens with a central topic being forget about spending family time until after July 4 th if at all. This after claiming we’ll be vaccinating 2 mil per day. NJ has done a poor job in planning and we still are averaging around 45 deaths per day. Thank God we have eliminated the deaths from flu this year . I read everything you post however tonight I take a break.
And we now have a 3rd antibody treatment, from GSK/VIR that is very effective (85%) in preventing hospitalizations and deaths in mild to moderately ill COVID patients - so effective that the independent data safety monitoring board stopped the trial (so we wouldn't keep giving placebo to people). Like the Lilly and Regeneron monoclonal antibodies, this one needs to be infused by IV. This is great news - seriously, we have what is just about a cure for infected patients, along with vaccines to prevent having infected patients.
As of the interim review, 583 people recently infected with COVID-19 had received VIR-7831, also known as GSK4182136, or placebo. The participants were all at high risk of progression, based on their age or other factors, but were unlikely to require hospitalization in the next 24 hours and had oxygen saturation of 94% or greater at the time of enrollment.
In those patients, the anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody reduced the number of patients who died or needed hospitalizing for more than 24 hours in the 29 days after randomization by 85%. The effect was large enough to prompt the independent data monitoring committee to recommend stopping enrollment.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biote...ations-and-deaths-phase-3-spurring-fda-filing
I'm just saying it might not be that big of a deal that 40-50 people a day are dying of "covid," especially if there are no flu or pneumonia deaths.
It’s one state with 9 mil people so if the lament is one death is still too many what is PM going to do ? How will we determine normal type deaths from heartaches , cancer, other diseases? You can bet covid deaths will be reported 5 years from now. There’s money in covid19.
I know, I know, it's a part of the process to get to herd immunity.
Now please give me another War and Peace chart as to why this has nothing to do with the vaccine AGAIN!!!
nypost.com
Now please give me another War and Peace chart as to why this has nothing to do with the vaccine AGAIN!!!
Utah mom Kassidi Kurill dies four days after second dose of Moderna vaccine
A 39-year-old single mom in Utah with no underlying medical conditions died four days after receiving her second dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, according to a report. Kassidi Kurill, a mothe…
nypost.com
I know, I know, it's a part of the process to get to herd immunity.
Now please give me another War and Peace chart as to why this has nothing to do with the vaccine AGAIN!!!
Utah mom Kassidi Kurill dies four days after second dose of Moderna vaccine
A 39-year-old single mom in Utah with no underlying medical conditions died four days after receiving her second dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, according to a report. Kassidi Kurill, a mothe…
Why don’t you ever wait until things are confirmed? Every time you post one of these, 2 days later medical examiners determine it had nothing to do with the vaccine.
Either way, the vaccines are bound to cause a death eventually. I mean when you vaccinate hundreds of millions of people, even saline solution is bound to cause some freak reaction with some people. Still worth it by saving the lives of thousands of people and returning society to normal.
I know, I know, it's a part of the process to get to herd immunity.
Now please give me another War and Peace chart as to why this has nothing to do with the vaccine AGAIN!!!
Utah mom Kassidi Kurill dies four days after second dose of Moderna vaccine
A 39-year-old single mom in Utah with no underlying medical conditions died four days after receiving her second dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, according to a report. Kassidi Kurill, a mothe…
Horrible
US at lowest Covid positivity rate since this all began!
Hospitalizations in NJ are back on track. Two days of drops. Worst case scenario we've plateaued. Best case the downward trend is resuming.
Are people really lying to get the vaccine in NJ ?? NJ.com explores this today in an article.
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2021...to-get-the-vaccine-before-its-their-turn.html
Based on my personal knowledge of peoples actions, and other anecdotal information I’ve heard and even suspected actions by those on this board…. The answer is YES YES YES without doubt. People are basically just looking out for themselves and really don’t have concern about others. The funny thing is how hypocritical so many are…. They talk the talk about helping those less fortunate and doing things for the betterment of society, but when it comes down to something directly affecting them the true colors come out and bend the rules to fit their needs and desires, and just want o look out for themselves. Sad
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2021...to-get-the-vaccine-before-its-their-turn.html
Based on my personal knowledge of peoples actions, and other anecdotal information I’ve heard and even suspected actions by those on this board…. The answer is YES YES YES without doubt. People are basically just looking out for themselves and really don’t have concern about others. The funny thing is how hypocritical so many are…. They talk the talk about helping those less fortunate and doing things for the betterment of society, but when it comes down to something directly affecting them the true colors come out and bend the rules to fit their needs and desires, and just want o look out for themselves. Sad
I don’t know anyone that jumped the line. I think a lot of people qualify based on what the criteria was/is.
Suspected actions of those on the board? What are you the Gestapo Police? I look out for many people as I’m sure others do as well. This labeling game is going to ruin a great society . Stop with the martyrdom attitude.
It's rampant. I'm amazed how many people in my circle of work /personal contacts have admitted to, or shared stories of others who have stated they were not fully honest in answering questions in getting eligible. No doubt this is not confined to my circle of contacts. Some very educated people I know, claimed ignorance of what medical conditions or level of obesity / overweightness was allowed... as well as other similar situations. All in the name of being able to get out to their favorite bar, or restaurant or sporting event, or a meet-up with friends they wanted to attend as soon as possible. Meanwhile the ederly, were and are still struggling with getting appointments. Yes, its good as more and more people get vaccinated., but the hypocrisy of these people is comical.
That may have been true when eligibility was first expanded in January but not anymore. 80% of NJ's 65+ population has received at least one shot. Add in the people that refuse under any circumstances to get the vaccine and I imagine there's a very teeny tiny percentage of seniors still waiting and for all we know likely have appointments soon. People have set up websites to link more "online types" with seniors who can't navigate the internet and get them set up with appointments.
Well, at least your not trashing the media source, just the messenger. You'll find this hard to believe, but this past week, my wife and I seriously are considering the vaccine, since we watch our Grandkids twice a week, and my son and daughter in law have 2 major family events in May and July. My point in all this isn't worrying about hurting the felling of those of you pushing the benefits of the vaccine. It's always been about what I feel is an effort to hide some very real truths about severe side effects and what we don't know these vaccines could show down the road. We have both registered, I'm in the 1A and she is in the 1B, with Walmart and Sams Club soon to be offering in our area. Each time one of these stories pops up, we look at each other and think that maybe we should wait until there's more data. I don't really care how you perceive that, and I know with 30% of the public questioning the safety of the vaccines, I'm hardly alone. Should I have waited for you to post that article? Would you, at this point, post an article if it stated the vaccines were killing people in higher numbers than the government wanted to state publicly? Be honest, I'd really love to hear your take on that question. My guess is, as you stated above, it's for the greater good and even if the deaths are much higher than published, it would be for the greater good, and you'd never link a fact filled article stating such.
That falls upon the Governor and his medical advisors. They knew this would occur from the start when he offered this gem.” We would hope people will not jump the line”. Ok ... keep believing that. I’m happy to see all ages get vaccinated and especially those most at risk. These people who cut the line have done this type of thing probably since childhood. Maybe we should cancel this behavior?
I think as more people have caught wind that line jumping is going on, the inhibition associated with the moral quandary diminishes. Everyone else is doing it, so...
Add in the reports of vaxx sites having extra and doling it out to whoever walks in, and the fact that they keep expanding the groups, and there's really a diminished incentive to wait your turn. Everyone who wants a vaccine in NJ will have one by end of April.
Add in the reports of vaxx sites having extra and doling it out to whoever walks in, and the fact that they keep expanding the groups, and there's really a diminished incentive to wait your turn. Everyone who wants a vaccine in NJ will have one by end of April.
It still does not absolve those who blatantly flaunted the system in place. Why should those interlopers get a free pass with the , “ well by the end of April everyone can get vaccinated”. That is called decency. That is called caring. It is called the right thing to do. We have listened for months about caring ... been lectured , shamed , ridiculed by those in charge. Maybe the hypocrites need to be called out by those in charge.
The governors strategy is paying off. He’s getting shots into arms and the stats prove it. So what if some people slip through the cracks? Other states have doses laying around because they are holding the line too tight.
You are correct in that it is good doses are getting in arms.. but the bigger point is how hypocritical people are in society, pointing out how caring they are and doing the right thing for other people... but when it comes time for something that affects them directly... damn the rules.. get me in line next ! Someone else can worry about the little old lady who has no one helping her navigate the internet as long as I can get back to my favorite restaurant.
I lost my uncle to COVID overnight. Vibrant, otherwise healthy 72-year-old. Was infected about 4 weeks ago and checked into Orlando's Florida Hospital about a week later. Just experienced a slow and steady decline. I've lost a number of associates and acquaintances, but this is the first family member I've lost.
The story is textbook. My uncle lost his wife to metastatic breast cancer a few years back and his son invited him to live with his family. Although he was healthy as a horse, he was a Vietnam-era amputee and my cousin didn't like the idea of his father living on his own. When COVID hit the northeast, like many Florida communities, theirs pooh-pooh'd the 'little flu' and carried on, business as usual. My cousin is also my business partner and I urged them daily to take precautions and mask up. When cases piled up throughout the state, he finally relented, but he tearfully confessed to me that when cases started dropping, he and his workers largely stopped masking. Sure enough, he became infected and brought it home. And now his father is dead. I'm still in shock. I managed to say goodbye to my uncle two weeks ago via Facetime.
Say what you will about the less than 1% death rate. When one of over half a million is someone close to you, the survival percentages are meaningless.
The story is textbook. My uncle lost his wife to metastatic breast cancer a few years back and his son invited him to live with his family. Although he was healthy as a horse, he was a Vietnam-era amputee and my cousin didn't like the idea of his father living on his own. When COVID hit the northeast, like many Florida communities, theirs pooh-pooh'd the 'little flu' and carried on, business as usual. My cousin is also my business partner and I urged them daily to take precautions and mask up. When cases piled up throughout the state, he finally relented, but he tearfully confessed to me that when cases started dropping, he and his workers largely stopped masking. Sure enough, he became infected and brought it home. And now his father is dead. I'm still in shock. I managed to say goodbye to my uncle two weeks ago via Facetime.
Say what you will about the less than 1% death rate. When one of over half a million is someone close to you, the survival percentages are meaningless.
So what? Now that is pure arrogance but that will change . What it proves is you have little regard for those who may have been more deserving of early vaccination. Educated and stupid you proved it here.
You might want to consider lowering your expectations. Among people polled in my age cohort (18-44), the perceived threat of covid
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Starting Monday, overweight is a condition added to the list. That would probable include 85% of people in NJ according to the CDC BMI index. I'm 5'5 and weigh 158, which puts me in overweight category.
I know ---because in the circle of people that I know who jumped the line, they either admitted directly that they did not answer honestly, or in others when I challenged them how they qualified , it was an "honest mistake" that they thought their condition was part of those covered. Yeah... honest !! And just today, since I wrote my earlier post I found out my sister who is in her early 50's just made an appointment. When I ask her how she qualified, knowing she is fit and in great health... she babbled about how most people are signing up now anyway. So among my small circle of contact I know more than a handful confirmed to have "cut the line". You dont think that is repeating itself rampantly throughout the state.?
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