OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[RU in IM]

Crypto taking a little slide tonight. if I was one of the “investors” (gamblers) that have doubled or tripled on risk (I.e. ARKK, Tesla and crypto) and you have a heavy concentration, I might not be sleeping that well. Tesla is off about 25%, Bitcoin about 20%, and ARKK about 18%.......all with the S&P about 3% off its recent high. My co-worker took some of the money he had on the side and bought a big chunk of ARKK less than two weeks ago; well he said his losses so far wiped out all of his 2020 gains. That’s why you should never make big moves all at once, even in what you think is a correction. The best way to invest is gradually, and if it goes down more, and it’s a solid company, then you continually ease in with more purchases. Chasing a hot stock can be risky.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Crypto taking a little slide tonight. if I was one of the “investors” (gamblers) that have doubled or tripled on risk (I.e. ARKK, Tesla and crypto) and you have a heavy concentration, I might not be sleeping that well. My co-worker took some of the money he had on the side and bought a big chunk of ARKK less than two weeks ago; well he said his losses wiped out all of his 2020 gains. That’s why you should never make big moves all at once, even in what you think is a correction. The best way to invest is gradually, and if it goes down more, and it’s a solid company, then you continually ease in With more purchases. Chasing a hot stock can be risky.

Not risky if you are a buy and hold person. Who cares about what happens in Q1? Remember Q1 2020? How did last year turn out? This is the 1st or 2nd inning of a year long game (and I have 16 more games to play before needing a dime). Relax and stick to the plan.

Now, if you are a get rich quick trader, you may be right! 😁

 

[RU in IM]

Not risky if you are a buy and hold person. Who cares about what happens in Q1? Remember Q1 2020? How did last year turn out? This is the 1st or 2nd inning of a year long game (and I have 16 more games to play before needing a dime). Relax and stick to the plan.

Now, if you are a get rich quick trader, you may be right! 😁

There is not one investment expert that would think jumping in with a large investment in one high risk fund at once makes sense. Even buy and hold guys should invest gradually. Do you even read what you write? I’m starting to think that your posts are just for entertainment.

 

[jtung230]

Wow, just read that the most active options on GME are 800 calls!!!! WTF

forgot to add that it’s tomorrow’s expiration. I should’ve sold those calls all day today. People are just set their money on fire. 52k contracts or ~1.7mm.

 

[RUAldo]

THIS?
iPath® Series B S&P 500® VIX Short-Term Futures

Yes

 

[T2Kplus20]

There is not one investment expert that would think jumping in with a large investment in one high risk fund at once makes sense. Even buy and hold guys should invest gradually. Do you even read what you write? I’m starting to think that your posts are just for entertainment.

Jumping in is no problem if you have a long outlook. Guess what? Since the trend of the market is upwards, the majority of time dollar cost averaging loses you money. It is the wrong decision. That's the data.

Now, realistically, most people will add money to investments because they earn money over time. So whether they want to dollar cost average or not, they have to.

 

[RU in IM]

Jumping in is no problem if you have a long outlook. Guess what? Since the trend of the market is upwards, the majority of time dollar cost averaging loses you money. It is the wrong decision. That's the data.

Now, realistically, most people will add money to investments because they earn money over time. So whether they want to dollar cost average or not, they have to.

A trend is backwards looking; no one knows what the trend will be going forward. And if you think you know, you’re kidding yourself.

 

[T2Kplus20]

A trend is backwards looking; no one knows what the trend will be going forward. And if you think you know, you’re kidding yourself.

I know the trend over the long run is up. Just like a casino. in the long run, you will lose. Don't get me wrong, I dollar cost average since I am earning money as time goes on. However, I make fund changes from time to time in our retirement accounts and have no problem dropping in large sums as needed.

 

[RU in IM]

I know the trend over the long run is up. Just like a casino. in the long run, you will lose. Don't get me wrong, I dollar cost average since I am earning money as time goes on. However, I make fund changes from time to time in our retirement accounts and have no problem dropping in large sums as needed.

We might be using different definitions of large. Our thinking may not be far off. I make large moves in $, but as a % of my total portfolio, its minor. In the example I gave earlier, the guy‘s one time big investment wiped out a year‘s worth of very solid gains in less than two weeks. Your funds got hit in the last week or so, and you have some higher-risk investment’s, but I’m sure you only lost a small fraction of last year‘s gains. You didn’t get slammed, because you didn’t put most of your eggs in one basket, all at once.

 

[RUAldo]

Futures are drifting lower. The nasty spike in bonds is still confusing given Powell’s comments yesterday. Retail traders may learn a lot of difficult lessons in the weeks to come.

 

[RU in IM]

Futures are drifting lower. The nasty spike in bonds is still confusing given Powell’s comments yesterday. Retail traders may learn a lot of difficult lessons in the weeks to come.

Well, the ten year has drifted a little lower and futures are up.

In response to your comment: Either the market is seeing more inflation risk than the Fed, or the Fed is willing to see some inflation and doesn’t anticipate that it will be large enough to tighten in the near to medium term. . I think it’s the latter, based on what I read..

 

[RUTGERS95]

bond 'spike' is a joke, 1.5 on 10yr and the mkt acting like it's 1986. This is just reallocation out of tech into value/growth imho. Crypto is fine, optins expire tomorrow and the week leading up is always volatile.

keep buying energy

 

[RUTGERS95]

and lithium as major shortages on the horizon as economics slap reality in the face of bad business decisions

 

[T2Kplus20]

Futures are drifting lower. The nasty spike in bonds is still confusing given Powell’s comments yesterday. Retail traders may learn a lot of difficult lessons in the weeks to come.

Some people doing irrational things (in light of Powell's comments). Which means, the market will likely snap back pretty quickly since the fundamentals are unchanged and solid. Take advantage of this opportunity and buy low.

 

[T2Kplus20]

bond 'spike' is a joke, 1.5 on 10yr and the mkt acting like it's 1986. This is just reallocation out of tech into value/growth imho. Crypto is fine, optins expire tomorrow and the week leading up is always volatile.

keep buying energy

Bought some XLE a few weeks ago and it was up +20%! Thanks. :)

Also, the market will rotate back into tech pretty quickly. Buy low!

 

[T2Kplus20]

and lithium as major shortages on the horizon as economics slap reality in the face of bad business decisions

Same thing with semiconductors.

 

[T2Kplus20]

We might be using different definitions of large. Our thinking may not be far off. I make large moves in $, but as a % of my total portfolio, its minor. In the example I gave earlier, the guy‘s one time big investment wiped out a year‘s worth of very solid gains in less than two weeks. Your funds got hit in the last week or so, and you have some higher-risk investment’s, but I’m sure you only lost a small fraction of last year‘s gains. You didn’t get slammed, because you didn’t put most of your eggs in one basket, all at once.

Of last year's gain, definitely not. I think I'm still up a bit for 2021 (maybe not, I was up about 10% YTD last week). Our largest fund makes up 10-12% of our entire portfolio. All others are in the single digits. ARKK is 6-7% and just went negative for us YTD.

And yes, I'm sure we are pretty much saying the same thing (or very close).

 

[rurahrah000]

Of last year's gain, definitely not. I think I'm still up a bit for 2021 (maybe not, I was up about 10% YTD last week). Our largest fund makes up 10-12% of our entire portfolio. All others are in the single digits. ARKK is 6-7% and just went negative for us YTD.

And yes, I'm sure we are pretty much saying the same thing (or very close).

Trying to time the market is not a winning long term strategy. A better strategy would be maintain your positions and generate new revenue, either from your day time jobs, selling upside calls or hedging. I sold out of the money upside calls on TSLA and played volatility. The revenue generated will be strategically invested in fintech, data mining and perhaps EV stocks.

 

[RU-05]

bond 'spike' is a joke, 1.5 on 10yr and the mkt acting like it's 1986. This is just reallocation out of tech into value/growth imho. Crypto is fine, optins expire tomorrow and the week leading up is always volatile.

keep buying energy

The dip from a couple weeks back , like today, came while GME was on a run.

 

[T2Kplus20]

The dip from a couple weeks back , like today, came while GME was on a run.

Solid video on BTC vs. ETH for the rest of the year. Bottom line, hold both! :)

 

[RUAldo]

Solid video on BTC vs. ETH for the rest of the year. Bottom line, hold both! :)

View embedded media

I’ve watched many “Guy the crypto guy” videos. And, until someone can show me a bio or his credentials, I have a hard time believing he is anything more than a British actor hired as a shill by some underground crypto investor or company. Not to mention it’s a big red flag when his sites have a ton of paid click-through ads and he sells t-shirts. I’d like someone to prove me wrong.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I’ve watched many “Guy the crypto guy” videos. And, until someone can show me a bio or his credentials, I have a hard time believing he is anything more than a British actor hired as a shill by some underground crypto investor or company. Not to mention it’s a big red flag when his sites have a ton of paid click-through ads and he sells t-shirts. I’d like someone to prove me wrong.

Time to calm down on the crazy. Just seems like a bunch of people that enjoy cryptos and who are making a few bucks along the way. None of their content ever seems biased:

The Coin Bureau - Your Crypto Gateway

Enter the cryptoverse and enjoy all the FREE content, videos, newsletters and everything The Coin Bureau has to offer.

www.coinbureau.com

 

[RUAldo]

Time to calm down on the crazy. Just seems like a bunch of people that enjoy cryptos and who are making a few bucks along the way. None of their content ever seems biased:

The Coin Bureau - Your Crypto Gateway

Enter the cryptoverse and enjoy all the FREE content, videos, newsletters and everything The Coin Bureau has to offer.

www.coinbureau.com

I’ve done plenty of research on Coinbureau so your link isn’t particularly helpful. “Guy the crypto guy” pushes a pro-crypto agenda. He portrays himself as an expert so all I’m asking for are his credentials. I want to be proven wrong. Otherwise, it’s just as likely he’s a shill (decent looking British actor is a perfect choice) that works for someone like the Winklevoss twins or an operation in China.

 

[jtung230]

Hope to have another fun day in the market. There are some fascinating dynamics going on in the equities market. I do expect it will have lasting impacts. Anyone think GME is going to 800 today?

 

[T2Kplus20]

I’ve done plenty of research on Coinbureau so your link isn’t particularly helpful. “Guy the crypto guy” pushes a pro-crypto agenda. He portrays himself as an expert so all I’m asking for are his credentials. I want to be proven wrong. Otherwise, it’s just as likely he’s a shill (decent looking British actor is a perfect choice) that works for someone like the Winklevoss twins or an operation in China.

He and the CB team are definitely experts. Their educational videos are amazing (and over my head on the blockchain tech stuff). Great resource for those into cryptos!

 

[T2Kplus20]

Hope to have another fun day in the market. There are some fascinating dynamics going on in the equities market. I do expect it will have lasting impacts. Anyone think GME is going to 800 today?

800? That seems a bit crazy. What did it get to for the height of the WSB pump? 450'ish?

 

[jtung230]

800? That seems a bit crazy. What did it get to for the height of the WSB pump? 450'ish?

52000 call options sold yesterday that expires today with strike price of 800.

 

[T2Kplus20]

52000 call options sold yesterday that expires today with strike price of 800.

I guess the WSB party continues!

 

[RUDead]

FYI for the Ark investors:

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

cn.reuters.com

Record redemption in Ark ETF sparks liquidity worries

LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - A record half-billion dollar redemption from Ark Invest’s flagship fund in a single day has led analysts to highlight the risks arising from the ETF’s heavy exposure to illiquid stocks if outflows pick up pace.

 

[jtung230]

My long portfolio was down 2% but short portfolio was up 25%. Too bad I was 97% long and 3% short. LOL

 

[T2Kplus20]

More positive economic news:

Personal income leaps 10% in January thanks to stimulus, but inflation still in check

Personal income saw its biggest monthly gain since April 2020 though inflation remained tame, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

www.cnbc.com

 

[jtung230]

More positive economic news:

Personal income leaps 10% in January thanks to stimulus, but inflation still in check

Personal income saw its biggest monthly gain since April 2020 though inflation remained tame, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

www.cnbc.com

It’s going to be an interesting dynamic here. Good economic news might be bad for stocks.

 

[T2Kplus20]

It’s going to be an interesting dynamic here. Good economic news might be bad for stocks.

In the longer run, it won't be. People are behaving irrationally right now, but as always, it will pass.

 

[Frida's Boss]

In the longer run, it won't be. People are behaving irrationally right now, but as always, it will pass.

Poor stock price performance in the backdrop of strong economic fundamentals is not unprecedented and not necessarily irrational.

 

[jtung230]

There’s some wild action in the market. Just sold more of my TSLA puts at 30% gain. Feels like people are just gambling out here.

 

[mdk01]

There’s some wild action in the market. Just sold more of my TSLA puts at 30% gain. Feels like people are just gambling out here.

That's because they are,

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Poor stock price performance in the backdrop of strong economic fundamentals is not unprecedented and not necessarily irrational.

Would it be safe to say that we just experienced a period of great stock performance in the backdrop of weak economic fundamentals in 2020?

 

[jtung230]

That's because they are,

To me, it’s not the same itch. I just made 8k on trades the last two days. But didn’t get the same feeling from winning 1k at the Blackjack table.

 

[mdk01]

To me, it’s not the same itch. I just made 8k on trades the last two days. But didn’t get the same feeling from winning 1k at the Blackjack table.

That's because selling GME calls at 800 48 hours before expiration is shooting fish in a barrel, not gambling. But hey, they stuck it to the man.

 

[T2Kplus20]

There’s some wild action in the market. Just sold more of my TSLA puts at 30% gain. Feels like people are just gambling out here.

+1
Wild swings today. Folks are confused and don't know what to do. LOL.