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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

You guys can joke about Frida's post, but it is wise for long term investors. It doesn't take a genius or mathematician to interpret a 10k. You can even google how (sort of a 10k for dummies). Your future assets can be greatly improved with a little bit of knowledge.
 
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You guys can joke about Frida's post, but it is wise for long term investors. It doesn't take a genius or mathematician to interpret a 10k. You can even google how (sort of a 10k for dummies). Your future assets can be greatly improved with a little bit of knowledge.
I actually read 10ks and other financial stuff up the wazoo. I even have a Bloomberg terminal at home. However, this is all for work. My team (and myself personally) do a ton of work with BD&L and M&A deals for the pharma/biotect industry. Half my time over the past month has been conducting due diligence on two multi $B deals. Just another reason why I don't trade stocks. The industry that I know the most about, I can't touch. Way too much inside info. I am limited to PRHSX (T Rowe Price Health Sciences fund) and my company stock which is part of my long-term incentive plan.
 
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You guys can joke about Frida's post, but it is wise for long term investors. It doesn't take a genius or mathematician to interpret a 10k. You can even google how (sort of a 10k for dummies). Your future assets can be greatly improved with a little bit of knowledge.
I thought he was being way too generous with 10%. There is a reason I’m only long 3 stocks.
 
Just closed out half of my GME shorts and bought puts instead. The margin requirement made it so inefficient.
 
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You guys can joke about Frida's post, but it is wise for long term investors. It doesn't take a genius or mathematician to interpret a 10k. You can even google how (sort of a 10k for dummies). Your future assets can be greatly improved with a little bit of knowledge.
I agree with his post. It's the continued GME stuff that is the joke. No the shorting, but the price, craze, etc.
 
Another tough day for Nasdaq/tech sector. Another good day for GME. Let’s see if my puts can payoff.
 
Gimme a break. CW will never admit spec tech is in serious trouble.


I know she’s been applauded for transparency, but there is a cost to being so public on your positions, too. Let’s say she changes her mind on a stock. It’s tougher to sell and change direction when you’ve publicly extolled the virtues of a holding. Creates biases you don’t need or want. It’s why many successful investors avoid unneeded disclosure or discussion about their positions.
 
I know she’s been applauded for transparency, but there is a cost to being so public on your positions, too. Let’s say she changes her mind on a stock. It’s tougher to sell and change direction when you’ve publicly extolled the virtues of a holding. Creates biases you don’t need or want. It’s why many successful investors avoid unneeded disclosure or discussion about their positions.
Not sure this is true. ARKK has a 80% turnover rate (as per MS), way higher than average. I remember seeing criticism last fall that she makes too many changes.
 
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Not sure this is true. ARKK has a 80% turnover rate (as per MS), way higher than average. I remember seeing criticism last fall that she makes too many changes.

Well, that’s very interesting. Was she as much a public figure at that time? I also think that high a level of turnover is a big red flag. No one can generate such good returns over an extended period of time making that many decisions. Unless they trade on fancy information. Have you done a return attribution based on position size for her funds? That level of turnover is very scary.
 
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Not sure this is true. ARKK has a 80% turnover rate (as per MS), way higher than average. I remember seeing criticism last fall that she makes too many changes.
That’s what I call an actively managed fund. Sure she ‘s not making money based on trades? 😀
 
Well, that’s very interesting. Was she as much a public figure at that time? I also think that high a level of turnover is a big red flag. No one can generate such good returns over an extended period of time making that many decisions. Unless they trade on fancy information. Have you done a return attribution based on position size for her funds? That level of turnover is very scary.
That is the current turnout figure dated Jan 31, 2021. Not sure if it is an end of the year thing or what the norm is for ARK funds. However, I read several articles on this subject several months ago. I get the daily buy/sell emails and their are plenty of trades each day.

 
That is the current turnout figure dated Jan 31, 2021. Not sure if it is an end of the year thing or what the norm is for ARK funds. However, I read several articles on this subject several months ago. I get the daily buy/sell emails and their are plenty of trades each day.


Ok. Turnover isn’t just trading in the same position. It means the portfolio is 80% different at the end of a period than in the beginning.
 
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I bought Amazon on the dip at 3100, after dropping from 3500, but it has not been doing anything for 6 months
Amazon has risks. Some of it is the unwind of the Pandemic trade, some of it is Bezos stepping down and a lot of it is political pressure. However, it does not have issues with revenue and earnings.
 
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Gimme a break. CW will never admit spec tech is in serious trouble.

Whether you like her or not, she is a true believer of her long-term strategy and high conviction stocks. She routinely says that her target for stocks and ETFs overall is a 15% ROR (meaning it will double every 5 years).

She is not going to be bullied off of her strategy, so let's see what happens. Stop the hating.
 
Whether you like her or not, she is a true believer of her long-term strategy and high conviction stocks. She routinely says that her target for stocks and ETFs overall is a 15% ROR (meaning it will double every 5 years).

She is not going to be bullied off of her strategy, so let's see what happens. Stop the hating.

It‘s not hating. Many financial experts, not just people on this board, are questioning her current strategy of doubling and tripling down on stocks that MAY still be way overpriced. For example, there was a 5 year stretch of time ( July 2014 to July 2019) where Tesla’s stock went nowhere (from $48 to $48). Since then, it is up 1,100%, even after dropping over $300 a share. Did Tesla really transform itself that much in an 18-month period to support such a change? I just don’t see it.

Also, she probably isn’t too far away from losing more money for her investors (collectively) over the last 15 month versus making money. She had a huge influx of money come into her funds leading up to the big drop. I read somewhere that money in the fund was about 10 times higher in early 2021, versus early 2020.
 
It‘s not hating. Many financial experts, not just people on this board, are questioning her current strategy of doubling and tripling down on stocks that MAY still be way overpriced. For example, there was a 5 year stretch of time ( July 2014 to July 2019) where Tesla’s stock went nowhere (from $48 to $48). Since then, it is up 1,100%, even after dropping over $300 a share. Did Tesla really transform itself that much in an 18-month period to support such a change? I just don’t see it.

Also, she probably isn’t too far away from losing more money for her investors (collectively) over the last 15 month versus making money. She had a huge influx of money come into her funds leading up to the big drop. I read somewhere that money in the fund was about 10 times higher in early 2021, versus early 2020.

Don't pick on T2K's girl. He is in love.
 
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Whether you like her or not, she is a true believer of her long-term strategy and high conviction stocks. She routinely says that her target for stocks and ETFs overall is a 15% ROR (meaning it will double every 5 years).

She is not going to be bullied off of her strategy, so let's see what happens. Stop the hating.
I don’t hate her. I just don’t trust her. Every time her fund takes a beating she jumps on CNBC preaching the virtues of her portfolio. When TSLA dropped to $750 she was buying “a ton”. Now at $550 she’s still yapping about it. Who the hell says “We are becoming more and more optimistic about our portfolios in this sell-off” when ARKK is down over 30%? Total BS.
 
I don’t hate her. I just don’t trust her. Every time her fund takes a beating she jumps on CNBC preaching the virtues of her portfolio. When TSLA dropped to $750 she was buying “a ton”. Now at $550 she’s still yapping about it. Who the hell says “We are becoming more and more optimistic about our portfolios in this sell-off” when ARKK is down over 30%? Total BS.
So tech will never go up again, ARK will never go up again, all of these companies will fail. Got it.

Saving this post to bump later this year. 😁
 
I actually read 10ks and other financial stuff up the wazoo. I even have a Bloomberg terminal at home. However, this is all for work. My team (and myself personally) do a ton of work with BD&L and M&A deals for the pharma/biotect industry. Half my time over the past month has been conducting due diligence on two multi $B deals. Just another reason why I don't trade stocks. The industry that I know the most about, I can't touch. Way too much inside info. I am limited to PRHSX (T Rowe Price Health Sciences fund) and my company stock which is part of my long-term incentive plan.
What is your position at you company? If you are uncomfortable then you don’t have to answer.
 
So tech will never go up again, ARK will never go up again, all of these companies will fail. Got it.

Saving this post to bump later this year. 😁
You miss the point - there is a difference between a bull and a bull-shitter. I’m always long because I believe in the market as a wealth-builder, but if I listened to CW a few weeks ago I’d be down 30%+. Now, that’s not to say I won’t buy some of her names when the valuations are more attractive. But, she should give it a rest b/c her constant pumping gets old and she is completely ignoring the obvious sector/cyclical rotations.
 
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The Nasdaq closed almost precisely down 10% from it's all time highs. So technically a correction.

Ready to run again?
 
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You miss the point - there is a difference between a bull and a bull-shitter. I’m always long because I believe in the market as a wealth-builder, but if I listened to CW a few weeks ago I’d be down 30%+. Now, that’s not to say I won’t buy some of her names when the valuations are more attractive. But, she should give it a rest b/c her constant pumping gets old and she is completely ignoring the obvious sector/cyclical rotations.
And if you listened to her 1 year ago you would be up +134%. If you listened to her 5 years ago you would be up +559%. She sounds like a manager that believes in her long term strategy. How is that bs'ing? After a bad month do you think she should dump her entire investing philosophy? You don't make sense here.
 
The Nasdaq closed almost precisely down 10% from it's all time highs. So technically a correction.

Ready to run again?
The thing about value stocks.....they become "non-value" very quickly, so then what? Just like in Sept/Oct with the first tech rotation, afterwards, kaboom!
 
And if you listened to her 1 year ago you would be up +134%. If you listened to her 5 years ago you would be up +559%. She sounds like a manager that believes in her long term strategy. How is that bs'ing? After a bad month do you think she should dump her entire investing philosophy? You don't make sense here.
I may be missing something but here’s the ARKK performance chart from CW’s website. If there is another/better way of highlighting performance by including distributions, etc. I’m assuming she would have done that here.

ARKK Performance
As of 12/31/2020
ARKK3 MonthsYTD1 Year*3 Years*5 Years*Since Inception*
NAV37.44%152.51%152.51%52.36%45.40%36.39%
Market Price37.55%152.83%152.83%52.34%46.03%36.42%
 
I may be missing something but here’s the ARKK performance chart from CW’s website. If there is another/better way of highlighting performance by including distributions, etc. I’m assuming she would have done that here.

ARKK Performance
As of 12/31/2020
ARKK3 MonthsYTD1 Year*3 Years*5 Years*Since Inception*
NAV37.44%152.51%152.51%52.36%45.40%36.39%
Market Price37.55%152.83%152.83%52.34%46.03%36.42%
Look at the date. Here is the up to date info via Morningstar. Click on the interactive chart for $10k growth data:


Also, you understand that those multi-year #'s are for ANNUAL return rates, right?
 
So tech will never go up again, ARK will never go up again, all of these companies will fail. Got it.

Saving this post to bump later this year. 😁

Oh it will go up again, but will it go down further before it does? Looks like a NASDAQ rally today, but is it just a blip in the trend?
 
It‘s not hating. Many financial experts, not just people on this board, are questioning her current strategy of doubling and tripling down on stocks that MAY still be way overpriced. For example, there was a 5 year stretch of time ( July 2014 to July 2019) where Tesla’s stock went nowhere (from $48 to $48). Since then, it is up 1,100%, even after dropping over $300 a share. Did Tesla really transform itself that much in an 18-month period to support such a change? I just don’t see it.

Also, she probably isn’t too far away from losing more money for her investors (collectively) over the last 15 month versus making money. She had a huge influx of money come into her funds leading up to the big drop. I read somewhere that money in the fund was about 10 times higher in early 2021, versus early 2020.
During that 5 year period when Tesla traded sideways, the stock price was being heavily, artificially suppressed by short sellers, and FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) from the oil industry, traditional auto, and the media. If you look at the fundamentals during that time period, you'd see the company was steadily moving towards profitability, reducing debt, increasing margins, improving manufacturing efficiency, increasing sales, and winning all kinds of awards. Also, during this 5 year period, most Wall St "analysts" still had no idea what Tesla really was/is. Wise investors payed attention to this. It was only a matter of time till the stock broke out in a big way.
 
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