OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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Well, if you are a person who is uninterested in facts and has been wrong in nearly every point you’ve expressed outrage, I can see why you’d emotionally react that way.
1. Ask John Paulson. 2. Refrain from informing WSB, lest they drive up the snowfall totals even if it’s just a dusting.
Actually you broadcast constantly on WSB once you competed your purchase and then cover when the market reaches 25 feet.
Happy to help. I had many people helping to educate me on crypto. I'm always happy to reciprocate.
It's not a significant difference, but you still don't own the coins. Owning coins and tokens is the true value in crypto.Currently the premium for GBTC is as low as it may ever get, as detailed in the article below. When compared to the fees charged by Coinbase, Square and Paypal (all around 1.5% for purchases over $1000), not a significant difference. This may be the lowest the premiums will ever be, at least until the OBTC ETF opens up (their fees are supposed to be 0.49%).
GBTC: Bitcoin For Boomers And Retirees (OTCMKTS:GBTC)
First, I'm going to very quickly discuss the price of Bitcoin. Second, I'm going to briefly showcase some price models. Third, I'm going to discuss Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).seekingalpha.com
Lol. BB is the only one that was truly pushed by WSB w/o agenda. Bed Bath Beyond, Koss, Express, Tanger and others were all pushed in one of two different manners. Either there was a DIRECT disinformation campaign focused on adding these other stocks in to pull money from GME, or reporters are downright lazy (which many are) and just looked at a list of the most shorted stocks and lumped them all together as "reddit stocks."
Repeatedly in the last week, new posters kept popping up pushing these shit stocks on WSB. It was a very targeted campaign and the mods there did yeomnans work in removing these posts. Witnessing this firsthand is why I have concerns with CNBC and the other business news media pushing a narrative other short stocks being pushed by a band of degenerate WSB members. Once they push that message, it quickly gets echo-chambered by their parent affilliates NBC& Fox stations.
AMC & BB were legit discussed at length on WSB. There was good DD posted on each.
It's really an abomination how much disinformation has been disseminated this week. I've been fighting behind the scenes to correct the narrative.
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70 different models? Sounds like a great business model.
And I call bullshit on your California #. Maybe 5 years ago. Back it up.
Cybertruck already has 700,000+ reservations, but I'm sure they're all from Silicon Valley elitists.
Some people are being intentionally obtuse here. If it was a liquidity thing, the worst thing you can do as a brokerage is think you can choose which stocks you can pick for your customers. That’s not their place.
The only dumber thing you can do is choose stocks that help people who are also funding you. Then it becomes outright market manipulation and criminal. If we don’t see people in jail for this, it will be a sad day. This coming from someone who has worked for a financial firm for the last 11 years. It would put firms that play by the rules at a severe disadvantage.
The only dumber thing you can do is choose stocks that help people who are also funding you. Then it becomes outright market manipulation and criminal. If we don’t see people in jail for this, it will be a sad day. This coming from someone who has worked for a financial firm for the last 11 years. It would put firms that play by the rules at a severe disadvantage.
Fun Money? Keep in mind, the upside from a short has an upper limit, but the downside is potentially infinite.
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Interesting video. Saylor said:
It's BTC vs Gold, not BTC vs US Dollar
Makes me think that government intervention and regulation is less likely. Still watching.
That’s why they invented stop orders. Thought about buying puts but seems like the smart money already priced that out. Feb 26 put at $200 is $95.40.
I’m not sure if this 2019 or 2020 but here you go:
No BS on the CA numbers. I tried to link the article but the pay wall won’t let me and I can’t seem to cut-and-paste the pie-chart. Google it and you’ll see. Regarding the Cybertruck, it’s gotten delayed several times and was now pushed back to late 2021 or 2022. Remember the Tesla Roadster announced in 2017? See any on the road? Nope because 4 years later Tesla has yet to make it.
I am holding some gold miners, as well as the crypto's, in on both as trades on inflation, the former to an extent as a hedge against the latter. I might be holding too much of the former though.
Just about done with the Saylor interview, real powerful stuff. Makes me more confidence in the future of BTC and likely ETH. Very interesting that the incoming SEC chair is very pro-BTC (and taught a crypto course at MIT!).
Got more buying to do. Hopefully Monday will be a good day to do so.
Isn't the TSLA bull case that the EV party is just starting? In which case GM could be fashionably late.
They are certainly far off from chapter 11.
Hard to imagine the largest car companies in the world catching up to relative upstarts in a particular sector?
your thoughts on GM's Ultium battery?
Yeah, BS. I looked.
More BS on Cybertruck being "delayed several times", since it was clear from the get go Cybertruck will be built in Austin and the truck was unveiled Nov. 2019. Austin construction is on schedule.
Roadster is dessert, Tesla has bigger priorities, and are cell constrained.
I'm growing tired debunking all of you lies/misinformation.
Production at scale is hard. Extremely hard. Prototypes are easy. I think that is being overlooked. Legacy autos are starting with a disadvantage because of their investment in ICE cars. There's no magic button to easily switch to EVs. It's going to be a painful transition and I'm not sure it can be done. This is where EV start-ups have the advantage, but again, they'll need to prove they can scale production as well. Not easy.
GM's battery. Tesla has already shown that modules are dead. Unnecessary, adds cost, weight, parts and processes to manufacturing. GM"s batteries well over $100/kwh. Tesla is well under.
GM 30 GWh by "mid decade" if all goes well. That puts them on track for roughly? half a million vehicles (give or take) depending on the size of the packs. Tesla will be at 200 GWh by 2022, and accelerating to 3TWh by 2030. I think it's being overlooked the absolutely ridiculous number of batteries Tesla is going to be producing.
Lastly why the diverse EV lineups? GM 30, VW 70! I think that's a terrible idea and doubt it happens. How about make 1 EV that's good and get the economies of scale working on that 1 model. Then, leverage that success across a wider portfolio. Tesla has laid out the roadmap. GM and other OEMs should just copy it as quickly as possible.
Tesla's pilot line. 4680 battery cells
(46 mm diameter, 80 mm length)
This pilot line is already in the top 10 of global battery production. All Tesla vehicles will eventually have these cells, and they will be incorporated into the structure of the vehicle. No modules. ~$55/kw by 2025
(46 mm diameter, 80 mm length)
This pilot line is already in the top 10 of global battery production. All Tesla vehicles will eventually have these cells, and they will be incorporated into the structure of the vehicle. No modules. ~$55/kw by 2025
-53%
Melvin Capital Lost 53% in January, Hurt by GameStop, Others https://www.wsj.com/articles/melvin...-hurt-by-gamestop-and-other-bets-116121031170
Melvin Capital Lost 53% in January, Hurt by GameStop, Others https://www.wsj.com/articles/melvin...-hurt-by-gamestop-and-other-bets-116121031170
Certainly the legacy car companies are familiar with production at scale. EV's might be new to them but large scale production is not. I really don't see this as a concern at all. I also don't see why GM won't be able to convert to EV. Build a factory(which they are doing) and then build the cars. They have the money to do it, they now have the will to do it(which they didn't prior), I'm not seeing the issue.
The concerns imo would be:
1)The lead they are giving up, where TSLA is the "name" in the field. Now do the legacy names carry over because of intrenched brand loyalty? I imagine they do. The quick filling of reservation slots for the Hummer back up that thinking.
2)The bigger one is the tech, and more specifically the batteries. I do hear quite often that TSLA's batteries are best in class with a sizable lead, though I am hearing more often about GM's Ultium battery.
Now, I really don't care if GM is the biggest EV car company in the world 15 years from now. Or who will be making the best battery 15 years from now. My thought on owning GM over TSLA right now is GM is looking pretty cheap, and should be getting a market boost due to converting to EV, while TSLA looks very expensive relatively speaking and already has all sorts of future growth built in. .
I’m having a hard time figuring out if Melvin capital and whoever else was actually in on it. These guys have a lot of power and will do anything to take from people they don’t know
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You and AOC who is celebrating thousands of people "acting collectively" and getting back at some amorphous villain. Of course if they are in a pension plan they're basically hitting themselves over the head with a 2X4 because it feels so good when they stop. I guess there isn't a Havana Stock Exchange for her to comment on. Of course she also said that unemployment was low because people had two jobs. A real financial wizard.
You and AOC who is celebrating thousands of people "acting collectively" and getting back at some amorphous villain. Of course if they are in a pension plan they're basically hitting themselves over the head with a 2X4 because it feels so good when they stop. I guess there isn't a Havana Stock Exchange for her to comment on. Of course she also said that unemployment was low because people had two jobs. A real financial wizard.
Looks like the silver market is next. Clearly WSB has been talking about the past 1-2wks but now it’s all over Twitter.
Shame those folks wont be able to purchase that 3rd home on the cape this winter. Guess theyll have to wait a quarter. Cant keep a good man down. Theyll be back, I have zero doubt. And then we can celebrate their success once more old chap!
Participants in the Calpers Pension System are in the market for a 3rd home? Never let the facts get in the way of a good rant.
Hedge funds
"Blucher!!!"
Short squeeze on silver? This will be fun. Now it’s a straight up pump and dump.
With all due respect, I still think you're underestimating manufacturing. OEMs had 100 years to figure it out. This is new technology. Not the same. Maybe a few words from a genius of engineering and physics will make you pause for thought:
"The difficulty and value of manufacturing is underappreciated," he told journalists, Wall Street analysts, and eager Tesla fans who had packed the company's design studio in Hawthorne, California.
"It's relatively easy to make a prototype but extremely difficult to mass manufacture a vehicle reliably at scale. Even for rocket science, it's probably a factor of 10 harder to design a manufacturing system for a rocket than to design the rocket. For cars it's maybe 100 times harder to design the manufacturing system than the car itself."
In 2018, Tesla went through what Musk called "production hell" as the company raced to build enough Model 3 sedans to claw its way out of debt. Over several months, that manufacturing struggle involved a massive tent built outside the company's factory to house an extra production line as well as grueling hours worked by Musk and the whole team, he said.
To Tesla's credit, it did post profits in both the third and fourth quarters of 2018 as the company moved into "delivery hell" — a new struggle to get new cars into owners' driveways.
"The issue is not about coming up with a car design — it's absolutely about the production system," Musk said. "You want to have a good product to build, but that's basically the easy part. The factory is the hard part."
If your goal is to make a quick buck on GM's announcement, great, good luck. I'm much more of a long term investor. I DO care, immensely, who has the best batteries. I also care immensely about the race to autonomy, which we haven't really touched upon.
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Ha. Good luck with that one. Squeezing the silver market isn't the same thing as squeezing a stock.
Would love to see them try.
Hedge funds of america need a madison avenue PR agency to explain the good they profer for society. I certainly welcome being convinced.
The Hunt brothers must be laughing in their graves
Glad you watched. Its one of his best interviews. There's a lot of intriguing stuff in there. And really forces you to rethink certain things. I've listened to that interview a few times either in the car or while running.
There's a good interview on the pomp podcast he gave in the summer when he announced microstrategy was moving cash to BTC. It provides some good context from then to now given hoe much has changed.
Appreciate the link. Looking forward to reading that interview soon.
Reading between the lines isnt necessary as you seem pretty clear in your belief that the market is due for a crash. As a new investor, I look at the rapid increases of a ton of stocks and think the same thing. My counter thought is a perfect storm of stimmy money, inflation and the rise of trading apps and retail investors, is here and will continue to inflate the market.
The Covid crash didnt reallt last long unless it was in an industry fully correlated to the virus (travel & hospitality). If a crash happens now, do you foresee something being a multi year hit or a quick hit? Also, assuming vax rollout provides a quasi return to normalcy, I feel like there is a ton of pent up demand to spend that the market is going to roar this year.
I'm not looking for a debate, nor am I trying to be confrontational. I'm a student of history and you obviously know you're shit a lot more than I do. So I value your input here. I watched the Grantham interview you posted last week and was left with the opinion that he's a bitter guy who has sat on the sidelines waiting the last x years and trying to create a self fulfilling prophecy.
Would love to have a good dialogue and learn. Either here or via email.
It's been over 40 years since they tried. Maybe there's a reason nobody has tried since then,
I think that engineer was talking about the difficulty for upstarts to go large scale, and that is why TSLA went through "production hell" in 2018. They were able to get through that, helped along by the gov't, but credit to them just the same. The workhorses, or lordstown, or Fiskars, those guys have that hard work ahead of them.
The legacies are well versed in large scale production, for them they need to do what that engineer describes as the easy part.
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Read Jason Zweg's column in the weekend WSJ for some perspective.
T2K - Can you get past the paywall and post?
Silver is currently something like 50-1 or 100-1 in terms of trades being covered by physical silver. Even a small run on physical silver or SLV will jack the price up significantly especially if SLV is forced to take physical delivery of silver that does not exist. Less of a short squeeze and more of simple supply and demand.
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