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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

How would you fix it? Ask a bunch of randos how much their grocery bills went up and average those?
Use a composite of various real-time shelter data instead of garbage that lags 12-15 months. It would have highlighted the inflation issue in 2021 and that it is back under 2% now. Problem solved!
 
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Morningstar reports:

“Cathie Wood's Ark Invest has destroyed $14 billion in wealth over the past decade.”

“A Morningstar analysis found that Ark Invest topped the list of wealth destroyers among other investment companies.”

All this during a time where the S&P was up around 150%.

The problem is: Her worst performance was when her funds had the biggest balances.
 
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Morningstar reports:

“Cathie Wood's Ark Invest has destroyed $14 billion in wealth over the past decade.”

“A Morningstar analysis found that Ark Invest topped the list of wealth destroyers among other investment companies.”

All this during a time where the S&P was up around 150%.

The problem is: Her worst performance was when her funds had the biggest balances.
Well, it's not all about her or the fund, but also investors that FOMO'ed in at the wrong time. Here is the full article:


Also, in other news, index funds are the new king!


Pretty amazing chart:

Market Share: All Funds

(Active vs. passive market shares, all long-term mutual funds and ETFs, Feb. 1, 1993 - Jan. 1, 2024)

AYEIVHJHMVDTJMZFQIZVCUBF6I.png
 
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Well, it's not all about her or the fund, but also investors that FOMO'ed in at the wrong time. Here is the full article:


Also, in other news, index funds are the new king!


Pretty amazing chart:

Market Share: All Funds

(Active vs. passive market shares, all long-term mutual funds and ETFs, Feb. 1, 1993 - Jan. 1, 2024)

AYEIVHJHMVDTJMZFQIZVCUBF6I.png

Great articles, should be required reading. I’m a big believer in index funds, as you know. Without looking, my portfolio is about 50% index funds. I have some actively managed vanguard funds and some individual stocks but to me, I think low cost index funds and diversification should be strongly considered as core foundations of a portfolio. The “wealth destroyers” were, not surprisingly, narrowly focused “hot” picks of the day. Thanks for posting these!
 
Great articles, should be required reading. I’m a big believer in index funds, as you know. Without looking, my portfolio is about 50% index funds. I have some actively managed vanguard funds and some individual stocks but to me, I think low cost index funds and diversification should be strongly considered as core foundations of a portfolio. The “wealth destroyers” were, not surprisingly, narrowly focused “hot” picks of the day. Thanks for posting these!
I've been moving more and more to index funds/etfs (not including my personal/fun account), even during the last 15 months of a rallying market. As for active funds, I'm pretty much down to 3 with large positions: FDGRX, FBGRX, and DODGX. A few of my old main stays had fund managers retire, so I moved on to the indexes.
 
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I've been moving more and more to index funds/etfs (not including my personal/fun account), even during the last 15 months of a rallying market. As for active funds, I'm pretty much down to 3 with large positions: FDGRX, FBGRX, and DODGX. A few of my old main stays had fund managers retire, so I moved on to the indexes.
Uh oh.... Next thing you know, you'll be chasing the neighborhood kids off your lawn and collecting stamps.
 
AI hype in the news more and more.
AI processors actually use bit 8 computing vs 32/64.
Its a 4 cylinder Subaru having people think its a turbo sportscar


"Michio Kaku, a professor of theoretical physics at City College of New York and CUNY Graduate Center believes current AI models are little more than glorified tape recorders.

Kaku was interviewed by CNN's Fareed Zakaria (via Business Insider). When asked for his thoughts on AI, Kaku said: "It takes snippets of what's on the web created by a human, splices them together, and passes it off as if it created these things, and people are saying: 'Oh my God, it's a human, it's humanlike.'" He goes on to say "AI cannot distinguish true from false".


SEC warning

SEC Head Warns Against ‘AI Washing,’ the High-Tech Version of ‘Greenwashing’​

Agency head Gary Gensler cautioned businesses against peddling phony AI-related hype​

 
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My buddy and I were just talking stocks. He likes Z and COMP and I actually talked him into starting small(very small) positions on each.

Z expecting 15% rev growth, and significant EPS growth(Non gaap it's profitiable, gaap it is not, but I hate that there is this distinction and E-trade doesn't clearly make the distinction) and it is free cash flow positive. Always beats too.

COMP has less growth and not expecting to be profitable in the next bunch of years, but it looks to be getting past trough rev's in 2023, it is expected to be free cash flow positive in 2024, and is dirt cheap on rev's at .3x (that is point three). Z by comparison is 7x rev's.

Both stocks dropped hard into Nov lows, rebounded and have consolidated without dropping, this past month. Z still below pre covid (edit) highs.
Nice 8% pop for Z today off earnings.
 
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Somewhat related SMCI keeps ripping. Over $900

I sold at $790. Looked like a good sell for about 3 hours.
I have no idea what to do with SMCI. I trimmed 25% last week and I think it's already back up to the old value (before I took some profit). LOL!

Did you see this today on CNBC? Gene M isn't a wild bull, but.....

 
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Awesome chart! NVDA's share price goes up, but PE goes down. Thanks AI!

Nvidia_valuaiton.png
I def got out of SMCI too early. Up another 20% in about 4 days. My 200% gain could have been 300%.

Still cheap.

But as noted on the Compount, an RSI in the 90's which is a super hot.
 
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LYFT is now off and running since earnings.

Up 50% in 3 days.

Price to rev's of 1.2x. Uber is 3.8x.

10x price to book, vs 12x for uber.

Uber is profitable, and much cheaper on price to cash flow, 19x vs 70x.

But if Lyft can continue to tighten up the ship, potential for significant upside.
 
I def got out of SMCI too early. Up another 20% in about 4 days. My 200% gain could have been 300%.

Still cheap.

But as noted on the Compount, an RSI in the 90's which is a super hot.
That's a crazy high RSI. But will this be a mini-NVDA? As in the revenue growth will justify the price rally. We shall see.

In other news, my ARM put are hanging in there. Up a smidge overall.

Anyone going for an options play of COIN's earnings report today? :)
 
Russell 2k back to $2034.

Quickly came back from that 4% drop due to the hot cpi sell off.

I dunno, suggests to me it wants to complete that break out.

We shall see.
 
Russell 2k back to $2034.

Quickly came back from that 4% drop due to the hot cpi sell off.

I dunno, suggests to me it wants to complete that break out.

We shall see.
I keep stalling and stumbling on those IWM calls. I have plenty of skin in the game with small caps (UWM, VB, VBK) but those calls are for a HR swing with my personal account. No matter when and regardless of bumps in the road, rates are going lower and small caps are painfully undervalued.
 
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Russell with a big day. 2.5% Finishes at $261.

Different topic. Some good beats after hours.

TOST, COIN, Trade desk, all up nicely.

Doordash with a miss. Looks like FSLY(remember this one?) with a big miss.
 
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Russell with a big day. 2.5% Finishes at $261.

Different topic. Some good beats after hours.

TOST, COIN, Trade desk, all up nicely.

Doordash with a miss. Looks like FSLY(remember this one?) with a big miss.
COIN is pumping! Sadly, got stuck in a work meeting and missed out on those calls.

ATH for the S&P 500. The market is giving the CPI (and bears) the middle finger.

 
Lot of talk lately about TSLA not belonging in the "MAG 7", well don't look now, but it bounced off resistance at around $175, was up 6% today and back up over $200.

Longer term maybe not, but short term it may have found itself.
 
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