OT: Tropical Storm Joaquin Forms - Close Call for NE US on Sat/Sun...

[RU848789]

Don't look now, but TS Joaquin has kind of snuck up on everyone and formed NE of the Bahamas. The storm is not supposed to reach hurricane strength, but it will be moving over the warm Gulf Stream waters and is forecast to strengthen to a strong tropical storm by Saturday, when it will likely be bearing down on the NE US, including, possibly, NJ. It's still 5 days out and the "cone of uncertainty" in the track is still pretty large (encompassing everywhere from Harrisburg to 200 miles off the NJ coast), but the center of that cone, i.e., the current most likely path, is right up the Jersey Coast.

This is not Sandy and won't become Sandy (edit: 5 days out, Sandy was a fully formed hurricane and the question was where it would hit and how hard, while this system just formed and the range of outcomes is far wider, with a significant hurricane being very unlikely), but a TS with 60-65 mph winds and torrential rains could cause some damage and flooding (especially after the wet week we have on tap). Also, this is the 10th named storm of the season vs. the 8 that Dr. Gray forecasted (12 is typical), although their forecast of a light year, especially with regard to total integrated seasonal storm intensity (accumulated cyclone energy) has been spot on so far - very few of the 10 storms have been noteworthy.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2015/aug2015/aug2015.pdf

Edit: also, if you want to follow the very active discussion on AmericanWx, agonizing over and analyzing every model run, here's the link:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index....l-cyclone-trough-interaction-potential/page-8

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/290237.shtml?

 

[ruready4somefootball]

Numbers, is that considered NE or SW of Bermuda as it stands right now?

 

[wheezer]

figures...... we go from what seems like a prolonged drought to getting drowned in rain....nature has a
way of evening things up sometimes....

 

[mikefla]

yup...its making a beeline for NYC from all reports......but its not a biggy.....

 

[RU848789]

Numbers, is that considered NE or SW of Bermuda as it stands right now?

Currently, it's NE of the Bahamas and SW of Bermuda...

 

[RU848789]

The latest NHC update (the map above updates automatically) has slowed the storm down somewhat and the center of the possible tracks is now off the Jersey coast - I expect the forecast for this one to change a lot, given the uncertain initial conditions and the slow evolution. Model range runs from complete dissipation in a few days to a weak Cat 1 making landfall on the Jersey Shore, i.e., the range is huge, as to be expected for a disorganized, uncertain storm right now.

 

[RUaMoose]

Hope it moves a little west and makes landfall right around the eastern shore of Va/MD. We could use a nice drenching TS

 

[sport2231]

#s - What a rain totals looking like right now. Obviously I am sure there is a range depending on the models and things are subject to change but my amateur eyes make it seem like we can be in store for a lot of flooding if it happens as forecasted right now

 

[ruready4somefootball]

Numbers, I know this isn't another Sandy from all reports, but is this about how Sandy formed,or did it take the classic route, forming in the southern Caribbean?

 

[RU4Real]

Numbers, I know this isn't another Sandy from all reports, but is this about how Sandy formed,or did it take the classic route, forming in the southern Caribbean?

Sandy formed from a depression in the southern Caribbean and was most of its track pretty unremarkable. It appeared to have a classic Atlantic "recurve" presentation until it encountered a combination of an upper level low pressure system over the eastern US and a ridge of high pressure over the Canadian maritimes, which turned the storm hard northwest.

 

[wheezer]

to my untrained eye, it looks like the path has been moved a bit east, not the direct beeline to NJ.... I would thus hope that the rain totals
are a bit lower, since we are getting a bunch of rain this week before it arrives.

 

[RUBigFrank]

looks like a significant change in direction

 

[RU848789]

This morning's NHC update slows the system down somewhat, such that Saturday is unlikely to see any effects from Joaquin. The storm would more likely approach on Sunday and maybe even into Monday, if at all, since it's still not clear if the storm will hit this area or miss to our east. Very uncertain forecast at this time. Certainly worth watching, but not panicking over.

Jeff Masters has a nice write-up of the models being all over the place with this system, due to the uncertainty of numerous factors involved (the upper low in GA, the approaching cold front and frontal-driven heavy rains from Weds-Thursday in the northeast, uncertain steering currents, etc.). We could see 1-3" of rain in the next 2 days (and more from NYC into New England), which has nothing to do with Joaquin.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3129

 

[Ru2bnj]

Sandy was a complete aberration and I would not even call it a tropical system. It was a hurricane in the Carribean and in the SW Atlantic..however as it got into the mid latitudes it morphed into a "hypbrid" type storm..with extra-tropical characteristics. Much like the so called "Perfect Storm" in 1990 which impacted but did not actually hit the New England coast. The barometric pressure in Sandy was as a low as a category 4 hurricane but the sustained winds, etc were that of a minimal category 1 hurricane. The energy was spread out much further in the system and was not concentrated around the center of the storm. Also, the storm track with the turn to the west was an aberration. There was no record of that type of storm ever hitting the NE coast moving directly to the west from the east.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Yawn.
Except for some much needed rain, which is all it would be.

 

[beaced]

Let's hear it for bye weeks.:sunglasses:

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

How much rain this weekend, 5 to 7 inches?

 

[T2Kplus10]

How much rain this weekend, 5 to 7 inches?

I think we need about 8 for our water supply reserves to catch back up.

 

[gflip01]

When will the run on bread, milk, and eggs begin?

 

[RUhasarrived]

The dew point is now 68,very high for late September.

 

[mildone]

I fully expect this storm to trend eastwards, meander about in the Atlantic showing all signs of having dissipated, then suddenly do a never-seen-before southerly loop very slowly picking up lots of energy before even more slowly turning north-westerly again, eventually making landfall in central NJ at 8pm, Saturday October 10th as a Cat 5 hurricane.

In the aftermath, Kyle will be handing out T-shirts to the fans with "now I know what a truly bad flood is" printed on the front w/an image of a closed fist that has the middle finger sticking up on the back.

 

[RU4Real]

I fully expect this storm to trend eastwards, meander about in the Atlantic showing all signs of having dissipated, then suddenly do a never-seen-before southerly loop very slowly picking up lots of energy before even more slowly turning north-westerly again, eventually making landfall in central NJ at 8pm, Saturday October 10th as a Cat 5 hurricane.

In the aftermath, Kyle will be handing out T-shirts to the fans with "now I know what a truly bad flood is" printed on the front w/an image of a closed fist that has the middle finger sticking up on the back.

Well, no. But okay.

 

[mildone]

Well, no. But okay.

Don't interrupt my fantasy w/reality dammit.

 

[mikemarc1]

On the weather board linked, the posters are mentioning possible category 3 or 4 hurricane. Weenies?

 

[RU4Real]

On the weather board linked, the posters are mentioning possible category 3 or 4 hurricane. Weenies?

Big time weenies. There's no model support for that hypothesis and no atmospheric support, either.

 

[mikemarc1]

Big time weenies. There's no model support for that hypothesis and no atmospheric support, either.

Figured that. No clue what any of the abbreviations or terminologies mean, thanks.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

So....my annual Mama Mare Breast Cancer Pub Crawl, in Hoboken, is Saturday. Are we looking at a likely "soaking," at the least, or what? Thanks!

 

[bac2therac]

For starters models have backed off on tonights dump slicing totals big time. In tge meantime the Euro was a swing and a miss as Joaquin seems to be pulled out to sea possibly by Ida

Also the hype by 101.5 is irresponsible. Yes they should make people aware but models are all over the place.

 

[CornerTavern]

Someone must have told mother nature that we are playing West Virginia this weekend.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Don't forget to stock up on milk, eggs and bread!

 

[WhiteBus]

Someone must have told mother nature that we are playing West Virginia this weekend.

Mother Nature found out we are in a bye week and is now taking her storm and going home. For casts have changed a lot since last night.

 

[RU848789]

On the weather board linked, the posters are mentioning possible category 3 or 4 hurricane. Weenies?

I haven't seen anyone say that and certainly not anyone with a red tag (pro meteorologist). Show me the post #, if you don't mind. Cat 1 is possible and with hurricanes intensity forecasts are usually far less accurate than track forecasts, so any hurricane has the potential to be a lot more/less powerful than predicted, but I don't think anyone is seriously thinking more than Cat 1, if that.

Having said that, today, Joaquin is looking much healthier than earlier today, via satellite, and pressure drops are much faster than expected, i.e,. it's strengthening faster than expected. Doesn't mean Cat 3/4 though. Could mean Cat 1 instead of just a TS.

 

[NJgold]

Keep it coming ... this is the only source that I trust for the weather in New Jersey!

 

[RU848789]

Sandy formed from a depression in the southern Caribbean and was most of its track pretty unremarkable. It appeared to have a classic Atlantic "recurve" presentation until it encountered a combination of an upper level low pressure system over the eastern US and a ridge of high pressure over the Canadian maritimes, which turned the storm hard northwest.

For people interested in more details, the wiki page is actually very good. Sandy did strengthen to a Cat 3 storm before striking Cuba from the south and then it became much less powerful, as often occurs after interaction with mountainous regions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy

However, while probably 95% of tropical systems in the area of Cuba, moving northward, eventually miss the US coast, from early on (5-6 days out, before it hit Cuba) the Euro model nailed the northerly and then northwesterly path into NJ (due to that upper level low in the eastern US and the eastern Canadian high, both of which steered Sandy NW) and it took a couple of days for the rest of the models to jump on board that solution, which the Euro never really wavered on, scoring a huge meteorological coup.

Sandy was an extremely rare event and people shouldn't assume we'll see something like that more than once in a great while. The Euro is showing Joaquin moving well off the east coast, although given the slow current speed and lack of strong steering currents, any small errors now may propagate into huge errors 5+ days from now, which is why solutions are literally all over the map.

The key is going to be where, exactly, joaquin meanders to over the next 3 days and when does it start making that northward or NE-ward turn and accelerate. The problem with that is that if it does end up hitting our area, we won't know that for sure until about Friday, 2 days before it would likely hit. Once it starts to move, it will likely move relatively quickly, so preparation time would be limited in a worst-case scenario.

 

[mikemarc1]

I haven't seen anyone say that and certainly not anyone with a red tag (pro meteorologist). Show me the post #, if you don't mind. Cat 1 is possible and with hurricanes intensity forecasts are usually far less accurate than track forecasts, so any hurricane has the potential to be a lot more/less powerful than predicted, but I don't think anyone is seriously thinking more than Cat 1, if that.

Having said that, today, Joaquin is looking much healthier than earlier today, via satellite, and pressure drops are much faster than expected, i.e,. it's strengthening faster than expected. Doesn't mean Cat 3/4 though. Could mean Cat 1 instead of just a TS.

I'm either losing my mind or the post was deleted. Saw it this afternoon, but not there anymore. Sorry, and thanks for the info!

 

[mildone]

For starters models have backed off on tonights dump slicing totals big time. In tge meantime the Euro was a swing and a miss as Joaquin seems to be pulled out to sea possibly by Ida

Also the hype by 101.5 is irresponsible. Yes they should make people aware but models are all over the place.

I hate when models back off.

 

[DJ Spanky]

I hate when models back off.

That happens to you a lot, doesn't it?

Of course, when you use "back off", you mean "run screaming hysterically", right?

 

[mildone]

That happens to you a lot, doesn't it?

Never. Models love me. It's 'cause I don't shower a lot so I smell real manly.

 

[RU848789]

I'm either losing my mind or the post was deleted. Saw it this afternoon, but not there anymore. Sorry, and thanks for the info!

The mods there get pretty aggressive, which is needed, IMO, as there are yahoos/weenies on there who have limited knowledge and spout all kinds of crap, which is misleading. The wrong info, misused, in rare cases (i.e., a Sandy) could lead to death/injury: anyone recall that yahoo on this board who was a cop (i.e., probably trusted by at least a few - closest I ever came to asking for someone to be banned), iirc, and who kept pooh-poohing Sandy's potential impacts until the day before landfall?

They even go into "storm mode" over there, where shenanigans are completely not tolerated and people get temporary bans or "5-posted" (can only make 5 posts a day). Unlike here, where the wrong info might lead to wailing, gnashing of teeth and maybe indigestion; hence the lighter moderation policy.

 

[RU848789]

5 pm advisory is in and Joaquin did strengthen, as expected based on observations and satellite presentation. Winds up to 65 mph and pressure down to 990 millibars. Forecast is for Joaquin to become a strong Cat 1/weak Cat 2 (~90 mph or so) over the next 2-3 days as it meanders towards the Bahamas, before turning to the NE.

The current track "cone" is now completely off the east coast, although uncertainty levels are so high, an east coast impact can't be ruled out yet, especially for SE New England. Looking extremely unlikely, now, to hit NJ, but we could still have impacts of rain/wind starting on Sunday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/205452.shtml?5day#contents