OT: Tropical Storm Joaquin Forms - Close Call for NE US on Sat/Sun...

[RU4Real]

The mods there get pretty aggressive, which is needed, IMO, as there are yahoos/weenies on there who have limited knowledge and spout all kinds of crap, which is misleading. The wrong info, misused, in rare cases (i.e., a Sandy) could lead to death/injury: anyone recall that yahoo on this board who was a cop, iirc, and who kept pooh-poohing Sandy's potential impacts until the day before landfall?

They even go into "storm mode" over there, where shenanigans are completely not tolerated and people get temporary bans or "5-posted" (can only make 5 posts a day). Unlike here, where the wrong info might lead to wailing, gnashing of teeth and maybe indigestion; hence the lighter moderation policy.

5:00 PM NHC info is out.

The guidance hasn't changed much, although the NHC discussion points out that the models still aren't in agreement, especially beyond 72 hours. Intensity is up (this afternoon's forecast includes the first dropsonde data) and has Joaquin becoming a Cat 1 by Thursday.

WRT the guidance, it should be noted that both the GFS and the Euro keep the storm well offshore. The HWRF and UK models bring it ashore, but those models aren't generally considered strong players in the Atlantic tropical realm.

 

[greenknight]

Unless there is a high up by nova Scotia no place for this to go but out to sea. There is a front that will bring north and east

 

[bac2therac]

Wrong..the possibility here is that Joaquin gets captured and thrown back west toward the coast. We need to pray that the euro is right and its escapes

The 18z gfs absolutely crushes NJ..a deadly run

 

[R1766U]

Is this the run you're talking about? Again VERY early, but wow.

 

[RU4Real]

I'll wait for the Euro.

 

[RU848789]

Wrong..the possibility here is that Joaquin gets captured and thrown back west toward the coast. We need to pray that the euro is right and its escapes

The 18z gfs absolutely crushes NJ..a deadly run

It's bad for us with regard to torrential rains, but it would be even worse for the DelMarVa and Chesapeake/Delaware Bay areas if they sustain a direct hit from even a Cat 1 hurricane, which is rare, having only occurred a few times in recorded history - which is why people shouldn't be focused on one run of one model at this time. Interesting summary of tropical systems to affect the VA/MD/DE areas, including DC/Baltimore in this link:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/hurricane_history/

Still a long ways to go on this, but interests along the east coast from NC to Maine need to watch this storm, as we'll likely only truly know where it's headed come about Friday, when it starts moving quickly in a specific direction with clearer steering patterns. Joaquin is still intensifying fairly rapidly, which was not forecast at all - as I've said a few times, intensity forecasts are fairly inaccurate. Another thing to keep in mind is that a more powerful hurricane can actually affect the path it will take, as it's another variable in the calculation.

 

[RU848789]

I'll wait for the Euro.

Yep. And I'll wait for a little better model consensus to develop before having any confidence in its eventual path - part of why I didn't post the 18Z GFS, as it only serves to get people riled up, thinking that's what's going to happen. Long way to go on this one...

 

[CodyRU]

So I'm almost afraid to ask, but I fly out of Allentown early Sat morning connecting in Atlanta before on my way to Belize. What are the chances I get screwed?

 

[RU4Real]

So I'm almost afraid to ask, but I fly out of Allentown early Sat morning connecting in Atlanta before on my way to Belize. What are the chances I get screwed?

10% chance you get screwed because of the storm.

10% chance you get screwed because you're originating in Allentown.

45% change you get screwed by connecting in Atlanta.

 

[RST95]

Yep. And I'll wait for a little better model consensus to develop before having any confidence in its eventual path - part of why I didn't post the 18Z GFS, as it only serves to get people riled up, thinking that's what's going to happen. Long way to go on this one...

If Joachim does blow out to sea, do we have a dry weekend, or does that southern low still soak us?

 

[DJ Spanky]

10% chance you get screwed because of the storm.

10% chance you get screwed because you're originating in Allentown.

45% change you get screwed by connecting in Atlanta.

0% chance you get screwed in the mile high club.

 

[njdirt]

Latest GFS tracks I have found

 

[mildone]

10% chance you get screwed because of the storm.

10% chance you get screwed because you're originating in Allentown.

45% change you get screwed by connecting in Atlanta.

0% chance you get screwed in the mile high club.

5% chance you get attacked by pirates while day-sailing in Belize.

 

[RU848789]

If Joachim does blow out to sea, do we have a dry weekend, or does that southern low still soak us?

Even if Joaquin misses us, the subtropical moisture feed already ongoing (the water vapor loop shows this impressively - don't have time to find it right now) is going to feed the various shortwave impulses that ride up along the base of the trough (which is progged to stall just off the east coast), bringing us waves of rain for the next several days, some of it likely to be quite heavy. And if Joaquin misses us, it's quite likely the moisture associated with it will not, so it's a good bet to be pretty wet around these parts through the weekend.

Edit: here's the water vapor loop...

 

[CodyRU]

10% chance you get screwed because of the storm.

10% chance you get screwed because you're originating in Allentown.

45% change you get screwed by connecting in Atlanta.

Because Atlanta sucks or because Atlanta is going to be getting hammered Saturday morning?

 

[mildone]

Because Atlanta sucks or because Atlanta is going to be getting hammered Saturday morning?

Because Atlanta's airport has a lot of delays.

 

[RU848789]

11 pm NHC: up to 70 mph (almost a hurricane) and down to 988 mbar - will be a hurricane with the next advisory, as it's clearly strengthening. Everything depends on whether the trough approaching us right now (and the whole east coast) goes "negative tilt" and draws Joaquin to the NW towards our area, which is actually not that different from what happened with Sandy, at least with regard to steering. Official forecast now has it as a strong cat 2 in 72 hours (105 mph winds) and the track/cone has us on the far eastern edge of the envelope. Stay tuned.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/025533.shtml?5day#contents

 

[mildone]

Guess it wouldn't hurt if I change the oil and test-fire the generator.

If this storm interferes with my internet porn habit, I'm going to be really pissed off.

 

[RU848789]

It's gonna rain overnight. Hard...

 

[RU848789]

Surprisingly, as of 5 am, still at 70 mph and 988 mbar. Forecast is to become a hurricane soon and eventually reach just about Cat 3 level in 72 hours (110 mph). Track forecast is a mess, still, and will likely remain so until Friday when the storm starts moving northward and when the steering currents will be known better, allowing some sort of model consensus to develop. Until then, it's still going to be quite wet with the stalled front just off the coast allowing the feed of tropical moisture (not Joaquin related) to continue bringing showers and downpours for the next few days. Could see 3-5" of rain in most places (including last night).

Interesting contrast to Sandy: for Sandy, the Euro held fast with a northward, then NW-ward hook into NJ, while most other models, 4-5 days out showed an out to sea solution. This time, only the Euro is showing an out to sea (although well west of where it was yesterday) solution and the others are showing an east coast landfall from NC to New England. The GFS is sticking with a DelMarVa hit late on Sunday, which would be bad with a Cat 1 hurricane (forecast at that time). The GFS upgrade has brought its scores on verification close to the Euro's - will be a fascinating sidebar to see which one does better with Joaquin. Still need to watch this very closely...

 

[RivalsMarkP]

I have a 8am flight out of Newark on Friday. ..seems like it should be wet overall but ok to fly out? Flying back on Monday early afternoon might be more problematic?

 

[LevaosLectures]

At least the rivers and reservoirs are low here in Passaic County.

 

[wheezer]

I have a 8am flight out of Newark on Friday. ..seems like it should be wet overall but ok to fly out? Flying back on Monday early afternoon might be more problematic?

----------------
if the storm track holds, your return flight could be in trouble.... the center of the hurricane/storm will be near the southern tip of NJ by Monday afternoon....,no expert, but I would think even if the rain has not begun in Newark, the winds should be sustained enough to cancel flights.

 

[RUbacker]

----------------
if the storm track holds, your return flight could be in trouble.... the center of the hurricane/storm will be near the southern tip of NJ by Monday afternoon....,no expert, but I would think even if the rain has not begun in Newark, the winds should be sustained enough to cancel flights.

How about going into nyc Sunday for a show?

 

[RU4Real]

----------------
if the storm track holds, your return flight could be in trouble.... the center of the hurricane/storm will be near the southern tip of NJ by Monday afternoon....,no expert, but I would think even if the rain has not begun in Newark, the winds should be sustained enough to cancel flights.

The use of the word "will" is highly inappropriate, at this time. The current NHC forecast track is a very low-confidence solution. We're a good 48 hours away from having even a moderately firm grasp on this.

 

[DJ Spanky]

The timing and track of this storm as of right now is raising some ugly memories from 3 years ago. And I'm not talking just Sandy.

 

[RU4Real]

Hurricane Hunter aircraft reporting that Joaquin now appears to be a Cat 1.

One of the reasons behind all the model inconsistency as relates to track is that the intensity forecasts aren't keeping up. The models are initializing with incorrect intensity data.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

Something like this is the reason why we have turf and not natural grass. iirc, we had a dry summer followed by some prolonged rains when the new grass at Rutgers Stadium became a disaster area for a game vs.. Miami.. where we wanted to slow them down so allowed the field to get more soggy. Always seemed a shame to me we went to artificial turf.

 

[wheezer]

The use of the word "will" is highly inappropriate, at this time. The current NHC forecast track is a very low-confidence solution. We're a good 48 hours away from having even a moderately firm grasp on this.

------
My first words were, if the track holds, this being based on the continual updated graph on the first post here but the OP.

If you were to just look at that you could see potential trouble for Monday afternoon, and yes it could be way off

We all know that the forecast 5 days out can be wrong, and wrong by a lot..... Right now that chart has the storm taking dead aim at NJ

Anyway the latest best guess of this graph has the final path similar to what Sandy eventually had happen, and the forecasters had that one predicted pretty well

Anyway, as one who worries about wind/water damage to my property, I hope this sucker veers way out to sea.

 

[RU848789]

As of 8 am, we officially have Hurricane Joaquin, with 75 mph sustained winds. For people asking specific questions about location-specific conditions 3+ days out, the answer is "nobody knows." Anyone claiming to know what this storm is going to do is full of crap. As Bryan Norcross (TWC hurricane expert, who is very good) and Dr. Jeff Masters have both reiterated recently, the science of meteorology is simply not good enough yet to accurately predict the outcome for Joaquin, given the unusually high uncertainty with this storm.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/301139.shtml?

 

[AreYouNUTS]

So one way, or the other, my Bar Crawl for Boobies is like to be a very wet one Saturday?

 

[ruready4somefootball]

Wet t-shirts yes,lol.[banana]

 

[RU848789]

Great post by DT/WxRisk on the model mayhem and why he won't jump on board the catastrophe scenario of a Tidewater/DelMarVa landfalling cat 1/2 hurricane, until the Euro shows it.

Wxrisk.com

He's also derisively dismissive at times, which can be both annoying and hilarious. Love this comment to someone asking where the Tidewater is...

"Folks if you don't know where the TIDEWATER region is -- Please go back to high school or look it up on google or better yet Please don't vote."

 

[derleider]

Anything south of DC is going to be a major problem for DC regardless of strength. You will have a wall of water moving down the Potomac from all of the rain before hand, and a wall of water moving up the Potomac because of the storm. Similar in Baltimore. I would guess same thing to a lesser degree for anything south of NJ vis a vis the Delaware and other more minor river systems in the area.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

So this is going to be a major storm for NJ this weekend.

Someone alert JCPL & PSEG so they are aware of it

 

[mikershoein]

Even if Joaquin misses us, the subtropical moisture feed already ongoing (the water vapor loop shows this impressively - don't have time to find it right now) is going to feed the various shortwave impulses that ride up along the base of the trough (which is progged to stall just off the east coast), bringing us waves of rain for the next several days, some of it likely to be quite heavy. And if Joaquin misses us, it's quite likely the moisture associated with it will not, so it's a good bet to be pretty wet around these parts through the weekend.

Edit: here's the water vapor loop...

right side of this visual looks like a moving picasso

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

It's not a matter of if it will be a hurricane that hits NJ, but when.

Latest data are saying sustained winds over 90mph direct hit on NJ.
Severe damage expected.

 

[RU4Real]

It's not a matter of if it will be a hurricane that hits NJ, but when.

Latest data are saying sustained winds over 90mph direct hit on NJ.
Severe damage expected.

Show your work, please.

 

[RU5781]

Show your work, please.

Once I saw his post, my first thought was, "where is Real with his show your work post?"
I have not seen anything saying what that dude said.

 

[mikebal9]

First birthday party in our backyard on Saturday is gonna be a good time. Looks like we'll be cramming 60 people into the house.