OT: Tropical Storm Joaquin Forms - Close Call for NE US on Sat/Sun...

[RU4Real]

Once I saw his post, my first thought was, "where is Real with his show your work post?"
I have not seen anything saying what that dude said.

This is one time when I 100% agree with @RU848789 - these threads are NOT the place for hyperbole and amateurish speculation. We're looking at the possibility - POSSIBILITY - of a very serious event, here. The discussion should be completely fact-based.

 

[RU5781]

This is one time when I 100% agree with @RU848789 - these threads are NOT the place for hyperbole and amateurish speculation. We're looking at the possibility - POSSIBILITY - of a very serious event, here. The discussion should be completely fact-based.

Agreed. People are going to panic, and panic pretty hardcore (which I can understand if one was nailed by Sandy).

 

[ruhudsonfan]

Agreed. People are going to panic, and panic pretty hardcore (which I can understand if one was nailed by Sandy).

ummm, NAILED by sandy? lol

 

[R1766U]

 

[PatrickRU92]

I'm actually stunned that there isn't a game this weekend that I'm flying to NJ for. Maybe I'm not the black cloud I thought I was.

Anyway be safe back there!

 

[MGSA99]

People should be panic buying about now. Home Depot should be sold out of generators by now.

 

[RU5781]

The panic has started on Facebook...

 

[straighttalkexpress]

What is a "Model"? Is it just a computer program? If so, is the euro model actually based in Europe?

 

[Plum Street]

This is gonna suck

 

[DJ Spanky]

What is a "Model"? Is it just a computer program?

Yes, it is a sophisticated computer program based on a wide range of inputs and data. I suspect it does a massive amount of calculations based off of possible scenarios, historical trends, prior model runs, etc. The hardware horsepower required for this is considerable.

 

[RutCorRx]

What is a "Model"? Is it just a computer program? If so, is the euro model actually based in Europe?

Fascinating. This is going to be like watching a crack addict take their first hit.

 

[pigmasty83]

MS City to Shore 175m bike ride is looking unlikely at this point :(

 

[DJ Spanky]

Folks, let's try to keep this thread on topic for once.

 

[RUsig]

I'm actually stunned that there isn't a game this weekend that I'm flying to NJ for. Maybe I'm not the black cloud I thought I was.

Anyway be safe back there!

It didn't rain till the middle of the 4th during the WSU game....the tides are turning.

 

[derleider]

What is a "Model"? Is it just a computer program? If so, is the euro model actually based in Europe?

Yes - its a very complex computer program that essentially tries to solve differential equations to describe the future state of the atmosphere based on the current states (as measured directly and by satellites.) Because the atmosphere is highly complex, they have to rely on parameterizations (i.e. approximations) for some values - the paramaterizations are one of the main differences between the models.

The Euro model is run by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting and is considered the gold standard. It is run in England and developed mostly by European scientists. It is the most detailed of the global models (i.e. one thats attempt to model the entire atmosphere globally). It has the highest vertical resolution and I think horizontal resolution too. In America the main model is the GFS, which is also global.

There are also regional dynamic models like the HWRF. This is a model that focuses on a smaller area (the area around an active tropical system) and uses a global model as input, but uses different physics (because its higher resolution).

There are also ensemble models. These are lower resolution versions of the global models. Instead of running one instance, they run different instances with slightly different starting conditions or physics to get an idea of how certain a forecast is. Its like running a season in Madden over and over again instead of just playing it once yourself. If the ensembles cluster tightly together it gives more confidence then if the slight initial differences lead to big differences in outcomes.

 

[bac2therac]

Latest gfs was further southwest with landfall lessening impact here. Tbe main problem looks to be the 2-3 inches from the friday night event

 

[djrc89]

I know that sandys impact for some was not devastating. For those that make jokes in this thread please consider those of us still dealing with its aftermath

 

[mildone]

Yes, it is a sophisticated computer program based on a wide range of inputs and data. I suspect it does a massive amount of calculations based off of possible scenarios, historical trends, prior model runs, etc. The hardware horsepower required for this is considerable.

 

[lighty]

I know that sandys impact for some was not devastating. For those that make jokes in this thread please consider those of us still dealing with its aftermath

As one that lives in a town devastated by Sandy... all I can say is that some of us really, really rely on these threads for the latest changing news for the forecasts. The threads may go in different directions while the forecasting is taking place, but it is very much appreciated.

And I just hope to God we never see anything like Sandy again in our lifetimes...

 

[PaKnight]

I'm actually stunned that there isn't a game this weekend that I'm flying to NJ for. Maybe I'm not the black cloud I thought I was.

Anyway be safe back there!

We would have a game if we were still playing WVU.

 

[straighttalkexpress]

As one that lives in a town devastated by Sandy... all I can say is that some of us really, really rely on these threads for the latest changing news for the forecasts. The threads may go in different directions while the forecasting is taking place, but it is very much appreciated.

And I just hope to God we never see anything like Sandy again in our lifetimes...

You're about to see worse in a couple of days

 

[applesktrack]

I'm flying into Philly like 130 on Monday is that not looking good

 

[derleider]

On a less serious note - this system and the preceding storms could have a major impact on the AL Wild Card race. The Yankees are 3.5 games up on the Astros right now (with five more games to play). They end with three games in Baltimore - but the current GFS model run has fairly heavy rain basically from Friday night through Monday (at least eavy enough that if it panned out its hard to see them getting any games in.)

Lets say this forecast holds through tomorrow night - (basically no shot at any game getting in after Friday).

What does MLB do? Do they preemptively move the games to some other non-East Coast city?

 

[Knight Shift]

So my picture of a model in direct response to a question of what a model is deleted, and this is not? If DJSpanky deleted my model, just wait, I am coming to your tailgate with that model I posted to teach you what I know about models.

 

[Knight Shift]

Latest from Mt. Holly briefing:

http://www.app.com/story/weather/stormwatch/2015/09/30/joaquin-storm-prep-jersey-shore/73054518/

 

[applesktrack]

Nice clock

 

[AreYouNUTS]

I would imagine, for those of us in potential storm surge areas, it's a somewhat good thing that means super blood moon was last week, in regards to the tides and what not? Obviously this is not one of my areas of expertise!

 

[retired711]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

This is the 2 p.m. map issued by the National Hurricane Center. Note that the storm is currently expected to be a "hurricane," (but not a "major hurricane of 115 mph or more) by the time it might get to this area.

 

[bac2therac]

The 12z suite models all have shifted southwest to NC landfall while the euro continues its ots track.....if these are right we still get adump of rain but avoid any deadly scenerios

 

[MGSA99]

On a less serious note - this system and the preceding storms could have a major impact on the AL Wild Card race. The Yankees are 3.5 games up on the Astros right now (with five more games to play). They end with three games in Baltimore - but the current GFS model run has fairly heavy rain basically from Friday night through Monday (at least eavy enough that if it panned out its hard to see them getting any games in.)

Lets say this forecast holds through tomorrow night - (basically no shot at any game getting in after Friday).

What does MLB do? Do they preemptively move the games to some other non-East Coast city?

Maybe they play a doubleheader on Friday ahead of time, then play the Sunday game elsewhere if necessary.

 

[derleider]

Maybe they play a doubleheader on Friday ahead of time, then play the Sunday game elsewhere if necessary.

That would be one solution. In fact I think probably the best one, again -assuming the Yankees havent locked it up by then.

 

[krup]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

This is the 2 p.m. map issued by the National Hurricane Center. Note that the storm is currently expected to be a "hurricane," (but not a "major hurricane of 115 mph or more) by the time it might get to this area.

Keep in mind, though, that this map which makes it look like the NHC is expecting the greatest chance of landfall in NJ, is actually an average of the Euro model which is out to sea (but carries a lot a weight because of its Sandy hit) and the majority of the models saying NC or VA landfall.

 

[brista21]

The 12z suite models all have shifted southwest to NC landfall while the euro continues its ots track.....if these are right we still get adump of rain but avoid any deadly scenerios

I'm ok with a thumping of rain as we need it with the minor drought that's set in. What we don't need is the Sandy-like (or worse) winds and storm surge.

 

[wheezer]

Keep in mind, though, that this map which makes it look like the NHC is expecting the greatest chance of landfall in NJ, is actually an average of the Euro model which is out to sea (but carries a lot a weight because of its Sandy hit) and the majority of the models saying NC or VA landfall.

-----------
thanks

 

[RU848789]

This is one time when I 100% agree with @RU848789 - these threads are NOT the place for hyperbole and amateurish speculation. We're looking at the possibility - POSSIBILITY - of a very serious event, here. The discussion should be completely fact-based.

Thanks, well said. Until yesterday, I don't think most pros were really thinking this would deepen so quickly and present such a risk to the east coast. Joaquin is continuing to strengthen pretty rapidly (up to 85 mph as of 2 pm and down to 968 mbar) and could easily reach Cat 2 and maybe even Cat 3 levels (111-129 mph) in the next couple of days and could maintain at least Cat 2 status at landfall, if it hits from NC on southward. Ocean temperatures in the region are near 30°C (86°F), the warmest seen there since record keeping began in 1880. However, the storm would likely weaken some if it were to move further north before landfall, say, in DE/NJ/New England, as it would be crossing cooler waters (25-27C), which is part of how systems that get that far north start to transition to "extratropical" in nature, like Sandy did.

But if the Euro is wrong and we get a landfalling hurricane on the east coast, after days of heavy rains and get more torrential rains on top of that, plus storm surges, winds and power outages, it could really get ugly quickly for tens of millions of people. Even if it hits NC, our area would get a shit-ton of rain and some wind and obviously, the closer it comes to NJ the greater the impact. Unfortunately, though, until this storm makes its turn for the north on Friday (we think), it's going to be just about impossible to know where it's headed, meaning coastal areas may only get 1-2 days notice for preparations, which is much less than the 3-4 days we had for Sandy.

One model comment: the Euro operational model shows an out to sea solution. However, the Euro ensembles, which are run at lower resolution with about 50 minor variations on the initial and boundary conditions (model inputs), are showing more members heading into the coast than out to sea - that might mean the other models are on to something and the Euro may shift towards a more westward solution. That's speculation that a few pros have made, including DT.

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/pho...9478830432717/924122410968351/?type=3&theater

 

[Skull83]

I actually tried to figure this out myself, but can someone post the times that the Euro runs take place? I had it down last winter, but now I can't remember. Thanks

Update: I think I figured it out, this was on the AccuWeather site:

ECMWF (sooner if you go directly to their sight)
*00z = 3:20 AM
*12z = 3:20 PM

 

[T2Kplus10]

The 12z suite models all have shifted southwest to NC landfall while the euro continues its ots track.....if these are right we still get adump of rain but avoid any deadly scenerios

Bac - is this current:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_tracks_latest.png

Only one model has it making landfall in NJ.

 

[knightfan7]

Welp, I've made my arrangements to be out Sunday - Tuesday (Same thing and place as Sandy). Not going to wait. Better to be safe. Will turn off electricity, gas, and water before I go.

If it doesn't come, I'm out nothing. If it does, I'm 8-10 miles inland and just hoping for the best. .

 

[RU848789]

Bac - is this current:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_tracks_latest.png

Only one model has it making landfall in NJ.

Focusing on one model isn't useful. The NHC official track is usually a numerical average of the 5 top models, iirc (Euro, GFS, UKMET, Canadian and NOGAPS), although I know they deviate from that at times in ways they probably don't reveal. Norcross on TWC yesterday was saying how the numerical average was more accurate than any individual model for prediction accuracy, but there will always be cases like Sandy, where the average is NOT the way to go, as the Euro nailed that one and the others were crap until only 2-3 days out. Hence the difficulty in knowing what's going to happen with Joaquin.

 

[derleider]

The 12z suite models all have shifted southwest to NC landfall while the euro continues its ots track.....if these are right we still get adump of rain but avoid any deadly scenerios

Remember - many of these models rely on GFS output. HWRF does. I think the NAM might too.

Bac - is this current:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_tracks_latest.png

Only one model has it making landfall in NJ.

Thats not a model. Thats the official NHC forecast. But thats forecast isnt really a forecast. Its kind of a compromise between the various models - almost a kind of weighted average of the models.

As #s points out - this is usually a better way to go - you are averaging out the variability in the major global models. But in this case you have a bimodal solution - it either hits south of the Chesapeake, or goes out to sea at this point.

Even in the ensembles, very few members it NJ in any of the models. But putting it in the middle give the NHC some wiggle room as far as putting people on notice and shifting the path gradually as the likely outcome becomes clearer. Among other things - the models themselves could all shift towards a more northerly solution in the next four days.

If the out to sea solution becomes likely they lose less face for being completely wrong, as they would simply adjust the track westward. Its one thing to say its going to hit NC and then have it go completely out ot see in the opposite direction. Its another when you have it going due north and then just shift east.

if the Norfolk and south solution becomes likely, they slowly shift the track in that direction, while giving people forewarning that in fact that solution could happen.

The official NHC track is as much a PR document as a scientific one. Obviously retaining credibility is a huge thing with the NHC - so it can't just go with whatever flavor of the day the models produce.

Basically it will come down to when and if the Euro operational version gets in line with the other global models and even its own ensemble members.