OT: Tropical Storm Joaquin Forms - Close Call for NE US on Sat/Sun...
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The euro was still out to sea and that gfs run while concerning to see, may just be a correction which heads to the euro solution
As of 2 am, 120 mph and 948 mbar, so it's gone from 85 mph/968 mbar to 120 mph/948 mbar in just 9 hours, which is pretty impressive and certainly scary for the Bahamas and anywhere this storm might hit. Some models predict the storm to reach Cat 4 status (>130 mph) in the next day or two, before weakening to Cat 1/2 before any east coast landfall (if it makes landfall).
Tonight's models still all over the place with the Euro still out to sea and most other models still seeing a SC/NC/VA landfall. The GFS hits LI, but is being discounted due to model initialization errors. What a meteorological mess. See the model tracks below.
Not to be a broken record, but we're not really going to have a handle on this until at least Friday, IMO, since the system isn't scheduled to make its turn towards the north accompanied by a significant acceleration until Friday. Where the system is when it makes that move north and what conditions are actually in place at that time with respect to the eastern US trough and the Atlantic ridge to the NE of the storm, as well as other factors that will influence its track, including the size and strength of Joaquin, itself, will determine its track.
Unfortunately, this will leave only 1-2 days for people to prepare for landfall, assuming it makes an east coast landfall somewhere. Obviously, even if it weakens to a Cat 1/2 system before landfall, that would still be a formidable storm with regard to storm surge/coastal flooding, flooding rains (5-10" likely), damaging winds, etc., and even areas it doesn't "hit" directly, but which are still within 100-200 miles of the path, will at least get the flooding rains and tropical storm force winds, with widespread power outages. Let's hope for the Euro to be right with its out to sea solution...
NHC updated its track. The center of the "cone of uncertainty" track has Joaquin hitting the Jersey Shore very late Monday night as a strong tropical storm. I think this is very unlikely - much more likely to either make landfall in the Carolinas or miss us out to sea. What this track does do is put everyone on the east coast under alert, since landfall almost anywhere is possible, as is a miss out to sea.
By the way, we're still on tap to get 1-3" more rain from now through Saturday, with the heaviest rain likely being throughout Friday. The rains the past few days and upcoming have nothing to do with Joaquin, but they are saturating the ground and bringing our rivers/streams back to close to normal levels. This means if we get 5-10" of rain from Joaquin (possible even if we don't get a direct hit), flooding is much more likely.
By the way, we're still on tap to get 1-3" more rain from now through Saturday, with the heaviest rain likely being throughout Friday. The rains the past few days and upcoming have nothing to do with Joaquin, but they are saturating the ground and bringing our rivers/streams back to close to normal levels. This means if we get 5-10" of rain from Joaquin (possible even if we don't get a direct hit), flooding is much more likely.
if my count is correct, seven models have it fish hooking out to sea while seven have is making landfall somewhere between Hilton Head, SC and Montauk. Just a real scattered mess. Like numbers has said, we'll have to wait for the turn north to get a better picture.
6z Gfs caves to the Euro. We still need to watch this but geez the Euro's stud fee is going to go through the roof if it nails this one. Even those frigid Milfs from the Hillsborough Deli are thinking of selling their Lexuses to get in on the action
Yeah. Well, like all the rest of us, the Euro has its strengths and weaknesses.
What's concerning is how wrong the models have been - originally this was never supposed to get beyond a Tropical Storm. Now it's a Cat 3 expected to be come a Cat 4. At this point, I'd recommend everyone do an initial prep, then keep an eye on this thread as the models begin to converge and we get a better idea of where it's gonna end up.
we will know tomorrow when it starts making its turn to the northwest, until then its just watching the models for any changes but its very promising that the best case scenario may win out here (although on the weenie board I sense disappointment)
Some clown on CBS puts up the spaghetti strings path projections. The Euro is noticeably absent. He says he is not able to graph it. Says the Euro has the path out to sea the whole way. Then he says "that projection is very unlikely"
What?? Another hyped up media clown. Lets ignore anything that doesn't feed your news cycle.
What?? Another hyped up media clown. Lets ignore anything that doesn't feed your news cycle.
well they justify it by saying that a person wishing for something to happen cant change that event either way. Mods don't want anyone coming in with moralistic posts over there.
The point is they are receiving some degree of pleasure/satisfaction from the misfortune and possible physical damage to others. People get committed for that in other instances.
Sunday morning ought to be fine - maybe a shower or two and a little breezy, but nothing to slow a plane down, unless you're flying to Bermuda, lol...
Never understood the hate for people who like unusual weather. Some like heat waves, some like snowstorms, some like hurricanes and some like thunderstorms/tornadoes, all of which kill people, but none of which are affected one iota by someone being interested in them.
It's just a normal part of human nature. For example, I don't actually want a zombie apocalypse but there's s little part of me that would be curious to see one.
Bill Evans on WABC this morning mentioned the possible effect of the storm on "the Rutgers football game on Saturday". I guess he misplaced his pocket schedule card.
He thinks "BYE" is a real school.
I saw a guy on a boat with a big fan. He said he was going to blow the storm towards the coast so he could satisfy his need to see people suffer. In all seriousness, I have contributed to several hurricane strengthening charities, but I'm not sure my money is being spent wisely.
Even without ever having met you in person, I predicted you would react negatively to that. All based on the footwear of a lovely young woman I also never met in person, but did manage to observe strolling w/you past our tailgate several years ago. LOL
Just tell him that the game against Michigan State has been postponed to next week due to weather. :)
Say, that little part of you that is curious to see a zombie apocalypse wouldn't happen to be a recent festering sore on your neck, would it? :eek:
Because they are farking amazing and a nice reminder of how small was really are. Still, I'd be perfectly happy if there was never another tornado.
It missed us in Jersey, although we still got about 6-10 inches of snow in some places, but it still nailed Long Island, so I'm not going to kill the Euro on that one.
Reading this thread, waiting for the "well folks this one missed us, but there's another storm we're tracking that should hit NJ next Saturday night at around 8PM" post.
They're in the same conference as College of Faith. If you don't know, look them up
Too bad Mich State game isn't this weekend. They wouldn't be able to throw a downfield pass either with the wind.
My almanac predicts a cold, nasty winter. My yard is ankle deep in Acorns, Robins haven't been seen since mid-August (i had several nests in the yard), and no Owls heard since June. Very strange nature behavior. I live in Brick.
My almanac predicts a cold, nasty winter. My yard is ankle deep in Acorns, Robins haven't been seen since mid-August (i had several nests in the yard), and no Owls heard since June. Very strange nature behavior. I live in Brick.
He updated it at 7am. Has a bit more confidence in the OTS prediction.
I sureeeeee hope all the folks saying a fish storm are correct. Don't want it to hit anywhere along the coast and especially near here.
