Most of the models (including the Euro) start the snow between 6 and 9 am on Wednesday with things getting going in earnest by mid/late morning That's what models are showing, but we're 4.5 days out, so much can still change on precip/type/timing.
OT: Winter storm for 2/12 - Big Mess of Snow/Sleet/Rain (after minor snowfall on 2/11)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Most of the models (including the Euro) start the snow between 6 and 9 am on Wednesday with things getting going in earnest by mid/late morning That's what models are showing, but we're 4.5 days out, so much can still change on precip/type/timing.
Adding in NWS discussion...
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
325 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For Sunday and Monday...A series of short waves eject northeast
supporting a weak surface low. The flow looks to back some and
therefore this system tracks farther north and right across our
region. While some milder air will get pulled northward ahead of the
system, the thermal profiles support more snow/frozen precipitation
from near the Fall Line and especially northward (I-78 corridor
northward). The precipitation amounts overall look light and with
light intensity rates anticipated, this could have some influence on
the precipitation types especially where the thermal fields are a
little more marginal. We used a model blend to obtain the thermal
fields, then generated the precipitation types from that utilizing
snow ratios. Most is snow or rain, however there could be a fairly
narrow corridor where some sleet or freezing rain occurs. This part
especially carries more uncertainty. As mentioned, any snow
accumulations look to be light (a coating to an inch or two) with
the most along and north of the I-78 corridor. The system looks to
depart the area early Monday, although some light snow may persist a
little longer across the far northern areas.
For Tuesday...A short break in the action is expected for Tuesday as
we get between systems. High pressure once again builds in from the
northwest and this should be the start of a more pronounced cold air
damming setup. The airmass, while on the colder side building in, it
looks rather dry due to high pressure becoming more established to
our north. This may delay the arrival of the precipitation later
Tuesday night, however some guidance is more robust with the warm
air advection and isentropic lift associated with a developing
overrunning setup. As a result, kept some increase in the PoPs from
south to north by later Tuesday night.
For Wednesday and Thursday...This time frame could be quite a mess.
The setup looks similar to the event that took place early this
week, and this involves cold Canadian high pressure anchored to our
north with colder and drier low-level air seeping southward.
Meanwhile, energy arriving from the southwest drives a surface low
into the Great Lakes region by Thursday, however given the
expectation of cold air damming in place a secondary surface low
develops near the Mid-Atlantic coast. This setup typically locks in
the colder low-level air in longer, especially inland from the Fall
Line. Much of the guidance indicates a good moisture feed with this
system, with strengthening isentropic upglide and a ribbon of
frontogenetic forcing. This all translates to varying precipitation
types which are always challenging to forecast but especially at
this time range. We derived our precipitation types from the thermal
fields via a multi-model blend. There very well could be a burst of
snow for parts of the region before a transition to mixed
precipitation or freezing rain occurs. Despite the uncertainty in
the details, the setup suggests that at least portions of our region
could get enough wintry precipitation to result in hazardous travel.
As a result, a mention was added to the Hazardous Weather Outlook,
especially for areas near and west of I-95.
Forecast is looking a little iffy for Monday, with a shower or two possible (but not a washout - although Florida showers can be serious downpours, as I assume you know), but likely decent for Tuesday/Wednesday, although if that front stalls, the shower chances could extend further than Monday (too early to know for sure). Temp forecast is pretty easy: warm and humid with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 60s for your 3 days.
Enjoy the trip to Tampa - lots of strip clubs and pawn shops, lol, but some very good BBQ - I used to fly down to go to the RU-USF games with my dad who would drive over from Vero. He lives there and I had hoped to catch the Dodgers with him when he moved there around 2000 or so, but we never got around to it and then the Dodgers jumped ship in '09.
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
254 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019
DISCUSSION...
For Thu through the weekend...the upper ridge near the Bahamas
dominates much of the Gulf region as a western U.S. trough swings
northwestward to the upper Great Lakes. Surface high pressure over
the lower Great Lakes and New England shifts out over the Atlantic
as it builds down across FL to the Gulf. Warm and stable
conditions continue with enough moisture for isolated to
occasionaly scattered showers. Temperatures will run above normal.
Mon and next Tue...the upper trough over the upper Great Lakes
deepens into a low as it tracks across southern Ontario and
Quebec - shunting the ridging both aloft and surface over FL
southward. This allows a frontal boundary to sag into north or
north-central FL and provide increasing clouds and rain
chances...especially for northern counties. Temperatures continue
warm but with a slight dip.
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