Venison please:grimace:
The only way to cook a groundhog! No one will eat it but it will be tender!! [roll]I make a tasty groundhog stew in the slow cooker
ehh..I'd prefer a rabbit stew...ears and all.I make a tasty groundhog stew in the slow cooker
You having Glenn Close over for dinner?
Yep, 80-90% sleet for Trenton to NYC, but only about 1" of total liquid equivalent precip, so that's maybe 0.7" of LE as sleet (2" of sleet, after 1" of snow - which is the equivalent of 8" of snow in mass), which is way less than the 1.5-2.0" amounts on almost every other model. GFS still has 3-4" snow, then some sleet then a lot of rain; same for the CMC, with less snow, but more sleet. Going to be a crazy storm.latest NAM is looking like a sleetfest more than anything else
Snowing very lightly here in Metuchen, but no accumulation yet. Decent, but narrow band aimed at my area, which looks like it could put down a coating (1/4" or so). Some decent snowfall going on south of 195/276 in NJ/PA right now.
Edit - we now officially have a dusting...
Some useful snow forecast maps. First one is from the Eastern Region NWS, second one is from the NWS-NYC and it is a bit snowier than the Eastern Region map for the NW half of NNJ. Both have a general 3-4/4-6" amounts along the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC, which is a bump up from earlier (3-4" near the TPK and 4-6" near Rt 1). Third map is from The Weather Channel, who also increased snowfall forecasts for
The 18Z runs of the GFS, GFS-FV3, NAM and Euro look reasonably close to what they were before - some fluctuations, but not all in any direction to detect any significant changes in what's coming, so I'm not posting them (twice a day is more than enough). However, here are some good maps from various sources.
The first one from the NWS Eastern Region is great for seeing the big picture from the NWS...although it seems to be a bit at odds with the 2nd map from NWS-NYC, especially for the NW half of NNJ (a bit more in the NYC graphic), below. These also appear to not include the snow from "storm" 1, as amounts S of 276/195 are low. I included that below, also, as well as the NWS-NYC map, which bumped up totals from this morning. Still haven't seen a map from NWS-Philly for storm 2, but the fact that these other maps are out there must mean they're in agreement. In addition, I included an updated map from TWC, which bumped totals up a bit again, but it's not that far off from the NWS maps (a little higher).
Will be interesting to see if these maps verify or not. With mixed precip events, featuring a significant warm layer aloft moving in over time and cold air damming trying to keep the cold air from the high in eastern Canada in place, bust potential on either side is pretty high. If that warm layer arrives a few hours later, a 3" of snow + 1" of sleet forecast could easily become a 6" of snow + 1" of sleet, whereas if the warm layer arrives a few hours early, that outcome could change to <1" of snow + 1" of sleet. Huge difference in outcomes over something that is quite difficult to predict accurately 1.5 days out or even 6 hours out.
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This morning was just a glorified dusting, no delays whatsoever. Roads are fine.Yeah the models seemed to cut back on snow totals a bit. Its still going to be an impactfull storm because of the timing. Today is about fine tuning the forecast and start times but with mixed precip events timing of changeover is crucial
FYI - WW is setting up tonight as a snow bust, mostly slop:Yeah the models seemed to cut back on snow totals a bit. Its still going to be an impactfull storm because of the timing. Today is about fine tuning the forecast and start times but with mixed precip events timing of changeover is crucial
FYI - WW is setting up tonight as a snow bust, mostly slop:
The second storm tonight will be much more difficult to handle from an operational standpoint. First, the start-time is tricky because dry air from the NE will keep trying to cut off the initial precip. While the risk for light snow begins as early as 12 AM, it is much more likely 4-7 AM. Thereafter, it rapidly gets steady and any snow is probably brief as we go to sleet.
Most of the predicted total is likely sleet and that is a good amount as more than a coating of sleet is dense and difficult to remove. Then it's over to rain late morning / early afternoon. Some spots are around 32 during that point, so rain can freeze on contact and lead to ice. We expect to warm slightly later in the daytime and that ends the ice threat going into Tuesday Night. The exception, could be places further from Route 1 (Pennington, Hillsborough) as they may hang onto ice until early evening.
Snow/sleet = 0.5 to 2.0 (60% likelihood).
Looks like Wed will be well above freezing, so that helps.Sleet is much worse than snow because its such a bear to remove. Hopefully we just have a brief transition period before it goes to plain rain
I gave you props in the Hackenberg thread- you had him pretty well nailed down to fail as an NFL QB when he was still in college. Solid prediction.Hey @DJ Spanky - might want to tune into TWC - they keep playing your favorite song in honor of V-Day. Lovin' You, by Minnie Riperton...
How's the ocean-churned up?I have 1" maybe a wee bit more here. Not sticking on roads or sidewalks.
How's the ocean-churned up?
Our driveway and front walkway covered. Glad I scraped the driveway and walkway, as everything is now melting away. Just measured, and have exactly 1" of snow in the back yard. Still snowing.
A least there will be some golf to watch. Even if it's just 2 holes.Quiet, can't hear any crashing waves. I have a nasty little cold so I'm staying in. Big baby lol.
The NWS also had a superb discussion this morning, below, as are the usual links to the NWS and the discussion threads on the 33andrain and AmericanWx message boards, if interested. Loved the honesty of the NWS forecaster in saying what's in bold below.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52025-february-11-12-winter-storm-threat/?page=12
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/157...hQTmTjWUnraWUYwW4zvWZuXrJZxTNy-cwHY4WYSUcFkd8
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
911 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
This is one of the most complicated forecasts of my admittedly
short career, largely owing to logistics, but lack of physical
understanding regarding what will transpire tonight through
tomorrow night is not far behind. We start with
watch/warning/advisory decisions this morning:
(1) Based on collaboration with CTP, BGM, and OKX, we will
continue the winter storm watch as is for Sussex (NJ), Carbon,
and Monroe Counties. This is based on remaining uncertainty with
snow and ice amounts Tuesday and Tuesday night.
(2) Berks, western Montgomery, upper Bucks, and Lehigh Counties
will be in a winter weather advisory from this evening through
early Tuesday evening based on expected onset of wintry
precipitation tonight and transition to mostly rain by Tuesday
evening.
(3) Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, Monmouth, and Mercer
Counties will be in a winter weather advisory from midnight
tonight to early Tuesday evening.
(4) Northampton, Warren, and Morris Counties will be in a winter
weather advisory from midnight tonight to 1 am Wednesday.
(2)-(4) are based on the general onset timing and precipitation
transition of the latest NAM, NAM Nest, and hi-res simulations.
Forecast was based largely on a consensus blend of the coarser
and hi-res 00z/06z models, though additional weight was provided
to the NAM/NAM Nest, owing to its preferred evolution of the
low-level thermal profiles (and its generally good performance
in warm-advection events like the upcoming one).
In general, the overall thinking with precipitation Monday night
through Tuesday night has not changed considerably.
Unfortunately, this means that a large amount of uncertainty
remains, primarily with timing the changeovers from snow to
sleet to freezing rain. The general idea is for snow to spread
northeastward into southeast PA and adjacent portions of
southern New Jersey during the evening, followed by central
portions of New Jersey and eastern PA by or after midnight. As
strong advection continues during this period, a warm nose will
increasingly lead to a transition to sleet and/or freezing rain.
This looks to mainly occur late tonight and Tuesday morning,
generally near/north of the I-76 corridor (precipitation mostly
rain to the south). Mixed precipitation will spread rapidly
northward during the morning hours, and may linger through at
least early afternoon near and especially west of the
Philadelphia metro area. Eventually, warmer air will surge
sufficiently northward to scour the cold air south of the
I-276/I-195 corridors during the afternoon (at least, that is
what is forecast), but the cold air may prove to stick around
much of the day in the Lehigh Valley and northern New Jersey.
There are two main uncertainties to address, should the timing
above be in the ballpark. (1) How much of the precipitation
occurs as snow versus sleet versus freezing rain? (2) Are the
models handling the lingering surface cold air adequately? My
inclination is that snow accumulations may be hindered by
residual dry air from a stubborn surface high to the
north/northeast. However, once the precipitation gets going,
large-scale lift will be strong, so the snow may become moderate
to heavy at times before transition to a mix. The sleet signal
may also be overdone given the strength of the warm advection
aloft. The warm nose may become quite pronounced, especially if
cold air damming is as strong as (say) the NAM suggests. This
certainly makes me worry about icing potential, especially in
the far north (generally near and north of I-80). Though
considerable uncertainty remains with relative amounts of each
precipitation type, the combined effects of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain may be sufficient to produce warning-like impacts
despite no individual type meeting warning criteria. As such,
the winter storm watch remains in effect and it is possible
adjoining counties may be upgraded from the current advisory to
a warning in later forecasts.
Another concern is heavy rain in central/southern portions of
the CWA, though models have trended somewhat downward in this
regard. Some instances of flooding may occur, but this is a
secondary concern to the winter weather potential.
Precipitation winds down quickly Tuesday night as the associated
low(s) move northeastward. Lingering snow showers may continue
in the Poconos and vicinity through or past daybreak Wednesday.
No, it will be hot no matter what's going on outside.[winking]Hard yes or no...will this interfere with my Valentine's day?(essex co) I can't read the whole thread...thx[thumb2]
Yep and I also really liked how he organized things better. Tough one. 12Z NAM/GFS trended back colder/whiter than 0Z/6Z, so it doesn't look like the overall move warmer/wetter last night and this morning was a part of a larger move to much warmer/wetter, like we saw in the 24-48 hours leading up to the last 2 events which turned out to be non-events for the 95 corridor.written by a newbie...trial by fire for him I guess because this one isnt easy...but unlike some of the other writeups....he lays it out in detailed language and scenerios and by region, I think some of the older guys who do the discos do not bother to go into the needed detail
the NAM was not really whiter....it was almost all sleet after a brief period of snow..its looking like that dry air is delaying the precip from moving to far to the north and east. Looks like the main thrust is shifting a little later. Im not expecting a lot of snow at all tomorrow.
last nights/this morning snow totals
..New Jersey...
...Atlantic County...
Atlantic City International 3.0 in 0700 AM 02/11 ASOS
Estell Manor 2.4 in 0845 AM 02/11 Trained Spotter
Hammonton 2.3 in 0645 AM 02/11 Trained Spotter
Pleasantville 2.2 in 0900 AM 02/11 Newspaper
...Burlington County...
Mount Laurel 2.1 in 1000 AM 02/11 Trained Spotter
Tabernacle 2.0 in 0710 AM 02/11 Trained Spotter
1 ESE Vincentown 2.0 in 0630 AM 02/11 Trained Spotter
Mount Holly WFO 1.1 in 0700 AM 02/11 Official NWS Obs
Burlington Twp 0.8 in 0630 AM 02/11 NWS Employee
...Camden County...
Lindenwold 2.9 in 0920 AM 02/11 Trained Spotter
Somerdale 2.5 in 0915 AM 02/11 Trained Spotter
Cherry Hill 2.4 in 0910 AM 02/11 Trained Spotter
...Cape May County...
Ocean City 1.8 in 0830 AM 02/11 Amateur Radio
Belleplain 1.3 in 0730 AM 02/11 Amateur Radio
Villas 0.3 in 0730 AM 02/11 Amateur Radio
Green Creek 0.3 in 0730 AM 02/11 Amateur Radio
...Cumberland County...
Vineland 2.5 in 0900 AM 02/11 Trained Spotter
...Gloucester County...
Washington Twp 3.1 in 0930 AM 02/11 Trained Spotter
Mullica Hill 3.0 in 0935 AM 02/11 Trained Spotter
Williamstown 3.0 in 0646 AM 02/11 Broadcast Media
West Deptford Twp 2.0 in 0915 AM 02/11 Public
...Mercer County...
Ewing 0.1 in 0720 AM 02/11 Trained Spotter
...Monmouth County...
Freehold 0.8 in 0700 AM 02/11 Trained Spotter
...Ocean County...
Manahawkin 3.0 in 0808 AM 02/11 Public
Whiting 1.5 in 0650 AM 02/11 Trained Spotter
Point Pleasant 1.3 in 0920 AM 02/11 Public
Whiting 1.0 in 0830 AM 02/11 Public
Brick 1.0 in 0825 AM 02/11 Public
...Salem County...
Pennsville 2.7 in 0750 AM 02/11 Trained Spotter
...Somerset County...
1 E Somerset 0.5 in 0700 AM 02/11 Trained Spotter
Bridgewater 0.3 in 0930 AM 02/11 Public
Sorry, I didn't know you were in the area.Ahem. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: