OT: Winter storm for 2/12 - Big Mess of Snow/Sleet/Rain (after minor snowfall on 2/11)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
WINTER STORM WARNING was hoisted for Somerse/Hunterdon
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
330 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019
NJZ009-010-121100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0009.190212T0500Z-190213T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0004.190211T2300Z-190213T0500Z/
Hunterdon-Somerset-
Including the cities of Flemington and Somerville
330 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY
NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of one
tenth to two tenths of an inch expected.
* WHERE...Hunterdon and Somerset counties.
* WHEN...Until midnight EST Tuesday night.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening
commutes on Tuesday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
4-6 inches...a bit aggressive but I guess they do not want people to be caught off guard. Must be following more of the GFS here as models such as the NAM and Canadian are spitting out much less white and more sleet..also the NAM is really pushing the start time back...not even snowing for most at 7AM and cut back on qpf....hmm
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
330 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019
NJZ009-010-121100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0009.190212T0500Z-190213T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0004.190211T2300Z-190213T0500Z/
Hunterdon-Somerset-
Including the cities of Flemington and Somerville
330 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY
NIGHT...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of one
tenth to two tenths of an inch expected.
* WHERE...Hunterdon and Somerset counties.
* WHEN...Until midnight EST Tuesday night.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening
commutes on Tuesday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
$$
4-6 inches...a bit aggressive but I guess they do not want people to be caught off guard. Must be following more of the GFS here as models such as the NAM and Canadian are spitting out much less white and more sleet..also the NAM is really pushing the start time back...not even snowing for most at 7AM and cut back on qpf....hmm
After last night's/this morning's appetizer, the main event for most of us starts before sunrise on Tuesday and uncertainty is still high on when the precip transitions to sleet and then rain and if there is any freezing rain. The GFS/FV3/Euro/CMC all trended a little bit warmer/wetter vs. their earlier runs last night and this morning, while the UK/NAM did not, so snow/sleet forecasts have been trimmed back a little bit (1/2-1" less generally) for most, although this should still be an impactful storm, especially for Tuesday morning's rush hour, which should feature plenty of snow/sleet. The pm rush could also be icy for the 95 corridor N of Trenton, if the transition to rain is delayed and will be icy N/W of 95 and especially N of 78 (and W of 287), where the transition to rain isn't likely until early evening. NWS has advisories up for all of NJ and eastern PA and NYC metro/LI.
Given the complexities of precip types and transition timings, this is a very high bust risk forecast. A few hours delay in transition means a few more inches of snow/sleet vs. the forecast, while an earlier transition means a few less inches of snow/sleet and for areas S of 195/276, in particular, an earlier transition could mean <1" of total frozen precip. It's also not clear at all if there is much of a transition to sleet - some models show hours of sleet, while others show precip going directly from snow to rain with a very brief transition, especially along/SE of 95. Bottom line is this is going to be a nowcasting event tomorrow.
- For the 95 corridor from Trenton to NYC, they're predicting 2-4" of snow and sleet with the transition to sleet likely in the mid/late morning and to rain by early/mid-afternoon with 0.5-0.75" of plain rain likely through Tuesday night.
- For the Lehigh Valley, Upper Montco/Bucks, Warren/Morris, Passaic, Bergen, and the Hudson Valley, they're predicting 3-5" of sleet/snow, with the transition times a few hours later than for I-95, i.e, early evening to all rain and maybe only 0.5" of plain rain.
- For counties S of 276/195, they're generally predicting 1-3" of snow/sleet with an earlier transition to sleet (then up to 1" of rain) vs. the 95 corridor from Trenton to NYC.
- For the immediate coast S of Toms River and S of a Dover, DE to AC line, <1" snow/sleet is expected; for these locations last night's snow will likely be more than Tuesday's.
- And Sussex, the Poconos, Orange and W. Passaic are under watches for 6"+ of snow/sleet with probably <1/4" of plain rain, if any in spots.
- And freezing rain is a risk for everyone, but especially NW of the 95 corridor where up to 0.1" is possible. Maps are below.
- Lastly, there is a decent chance that half to most of the snow shown on the maps will end up being sleet. It’s not as pretty as snow and, for example, 2” of sleet doesn’t “sound” as bad as 6.6” of snow (they’re equivalent in mass, as both are 0.66” of frozen liquid), but both have the same impact for shoveling, plowing and driving (frozen mass is the key). In addition, due to sleet’s much lower surface area to volume ratio, it will melt much more slowly than snowflakes on roads or from indirect sunlight
NWS issues winter storm warnings (pink counties) for Morris/Warren, Lehigh Valley, Upper Bucks/Montco, and Somerset/Hunterdon, in addition to Sussex/Poconos, as all of these counties are now in a 4-6/4-7" snow/sleet forecast, plus up to 0.2" of freezing rain glaze. Might be a tad aggressive, if not for the freezing rain risk.
Mercer, Middlesex, and Monmouth are under advisories (blue counties) for 2-4" snow/sleet and up to 0.1" of freezing rain glaze, while lower Bucks/Montco and Philly/Chester/Delaware are under advisories for 1-3" adn up to 0.1" of freezing rain and most of the rest of SNJ is under advisories for up to 2" of snow/sleet and up to 0.1" of freezing rain.
Revised maps and discussions will hopefully be up shortly. Map of warnings/advisories is below, as well as a link to them...
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter storm warning
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory
It'll be a huge kick in the head to the NWS and most winter weather fans if the 18Z NAM is correct. It cut back frozen precip by half (from 0.9" frozen to 0.5" frozen) and increased rain from 0.2 to 0.4", right as the NWS was upping the ante on all of its warnings. Not sure how much of a role the NAM played in that decision, but the NAM is often well liked for thermal profiles this close to an event, so if it's warmer, that doesn't bode well for forecasts. Could be a blip - we'll see.
Maps are out from the NWS-Philly/NYC offices and oddly enough, they decreased snow/sleet forecasts a bit, yet still went heavy with the warnings for Somerset/Hunterdon and Upper Bucks/Montco, especially - those really surprised me, unless it's more about several inches snow/sleet (likely, but not 6"), plus the 0.1-0.2" freezing rain expected, which is dangerous stuff.
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NWS issues winter storm warnings (pink counties) for Morris/Warren, Lehigh Valley, Upper Bucks/Montco, and Somerset/Hunterdon, in addition to Sussex/Poconos, as all of these counties are now in a 4-6/4-7" snow/sleet forecast, plus up to 0.2" of freezing rain glaze. Might be a tad aggressive, if not for the freezing rain risk.
Mercer, Middlesex, and Monmouth are under advisories (blue counties) for 2-4" snow/sleet and up to 0.1" of freezing rain glaze, while lower Bucks/Montco and Philly/Chester/Delaware are under advisories for 1-3" adn up to 0.1" of freezing rain and most of the rest of SNJ is under advisories for up to 2" of snow/sleet and up to 0.1" of freezing rain.
Revised maps and discussions will hopefully be up shortly. Map of warnings/advisories is below, as well as a link to them...
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter storm warning
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory
It'll be a huge kick in the head to the NWS and most winter weather fans if the 18Z NAM is correct. It cut back frozen precip by half (from 0.9" frozen to 0.5" frozen) and increased rain from 0.2 to 0.4", right as the NWS was upping the ante on all of its warnings. Not sure how much of a role the NAM played in that decision, but the NAM is often well liked for thermal profiles this close to an event, so if it's warmer, that doesn't bode well for forecasts. Could be a blip - we'll see.
this seems like a tough forecast but arent they all this issue, we have not had one straight up snowstorm
so after missing out on the November storm, a few times since they have been aggressive...I know the ukmet is putting out hefty amounts but is there another model...I think even the Euro was around 3 inches..
anyhow some models are holding onto the cold but its the mesocale models that seem to have the warming aloft...wouldnt they have a better handle on tomorrow?
I think he meant for the weather, not his administration.
some of these models dont have much of anything until after 7AM...my glance at the GFS showed not alot of snow and a change to rain
At work so haven't had time to dig in, but just looking at the NAM/RGEM mesoscale models, which should be in their wheelhouse now (inside 24 hours), I'd be very nervous about the current forecast - what's really tough for the NWS is those model runs came out after they had put together their forecasts and they were a significant departure towards less precip, less frozen and a later start.
But the UK and Euro are the best global models and they're both showing several inches of snow (3-4" at least) then several hours of sleet (1-2" worth which is 3-6" worth of snow) and it's really hard to go against them when together (note that the Euro doesn't include sleet and the UK does, so they're very close to each other, as far as I know). If you blended the Euro/UK with the NAM/RGEM, you might just get the NWS forecasts. My guess is final adjustments will be made off the 0Z suite and from there on it's nowcasting time.
WW still holding at 1-2 for our area. Update should come in later this evening.
its looking like start time is like 6-8AM for most..this could change but the models have trended toward pushing the start time back
I call a state of emergency on his teeth
hmmm so the new Mt Holly snow map reduced totals just an hour after I was put in a WSW for 4-6 but only 2 inches on this map IMBY
difficult forecast for sure
difficult forecast for sure
Yeah baby! But this throws a real wrench in the 100th day parties at WAS. Thu was supposed to be it, now the 100th day is Fri. Oh, what to do, what to do?!?!?
My kids daycare is doing a thing for 100th day of school as well.
Since when is this a thing?
Murphy blows it again with an early call. Dumb dumb dumb. And I'm a proud Dem. Gonna look bad if he has to close it because things are horrible at 9 am.
Gov. Murphy declared a State of Emergency starting at midnight:
https://www.app.com/story/news/new-...e-emergency-ahead-snow-tuesday-nj/2841913002/
https://www.app.com/story/news/new-...e-emergency-ahead-snow-tuesday-nj/2841913002/
they should actuallly send them in on time..its likely be getting worse when they come in.....at least north of Trenton
0z NAM was a lot of sleet and qucker with the onset of precip....had it entering NJ by 4 AM so have to watch that
A couple of Stillwater Artisanal Remember Me's for me...nice beer.
100th day celebrations have been an elementary school thing for years. Ours will be on Monday now since my school just got closed.
