OT: Winter storm for 2/12 - Big Mess of Snow/Sleet/Rain (after minor snowfall on 2/11)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
6ABC has moved the line much further North. Less snow and ice in the Philly region
The mesoscale models, like the NAM (probably the best one) at 18Z (came out late afternoon, after the NWS updates/warnings, etc.) showed a major increase in warmth/rain over frozen, so many nervous folks, I'm sure at the NWS over that. Well, the latest 0Z NAM, which just came out, reversed that, going back to the idea it has been showing for a couple of days, i.e., of 80-90% of the precip falling as sleet with very little snow (at 18Z it was 50/50 sleet and rain), which is a colder, more impactful solution. And it shows precip getting going in CNJ by 7 am vs. 9-10 am or so at 18Z.
So, while I was starting to really question the NWS decision to issue warnings for Somerset, Hunterdon and Upper Bucks/Montco, if the 0Z NAM is really showing that the 18Z NAM was a blip and that most of the warned counties are going to get an inch or two of snow and then 1-2" of sleet, then I think warnings make sense, as that would be a total of 0.4-0.8" of frozen liquid as snow/sleet, which is equivalent to 4-8" of snow. Also, even if 1" of snow and 2" of sleet might only be 3" on the ground, that's 7" of "snow equivalent" (sleet is 3" per 1" of liquid while snow is 10" per 1" of liquid).
I would argue that 2" of sleet is just as impactful as 6" of snow, as both have the same mass, are equally hard to shovel/plow and drive in, plus, sleet will not melt nearly as quickly as snowflakes, due to its much lower surface area to volume ratio vs. flakes. This applies, in general, and during the establishment of any initial accumulation on paved surfaces in borderline situations (like daytime, with modest rates in mid-February - if we have all sleet tomorrow it'll accumulate more easily than all snow, at least on roads during the day). I honestly believe 2" of sleet ought to get a WS Warning, just like 6" of snow - the only thing snow impacts much more than sleet is visibility. I might run for Governor on the sleet platform, lol.
We might still see some curveballs, but I think we're in for a pretty crazy morning and early afternoon at least for most of the area near/along 95 and NW of there and maybe even areas N of 195 away from the coast. So much depends on the timing of these transitions to sleet and rain (and maybe freezing rain) and predicting that timing for everywhere in the region is essentially impossible. There are going to be some areas that bust significantly in this storm vs. NWS and other predictions - I just don't know which direction yet.
So, while I was starting to really question the NWS decision to issue warnings for Somerset, Hunterdon and Upper Bucks/Montco, if the 0Z NAM is really showing that the 18Z NAM was a blip and that most of the warned counties are going to get an inch or two of snow and then 1-2" of sleet, then I think warnings make sense, as that would be a total of 0.4-0.8" of frozen liquid as snow/sleet, which is equivalent to 4-8" of snow. Also, even if 1" of snow and 2" of sleet might only be 3" on the ground, that's 7" of "snow equivalent" (sleet is 3" per 1" of liquid while snow is 10" per 1" of liquid).
I would argue that 2" of sleet is just as impactful as 6" of snow, as both have the same mass, are equally hard to shovel/plow and drive in, plus, sleet will not melt nearly as quickly as snowflakes, due to its much lower surface area to volume ratio vs. flakes. This applies, in general, and during the establishment of any initial accumulation on paved surfaces in borderline situations (like daytime, with modest rates in mid-February - if we have all sleet tomorrow it'll accumulate more easily than all snow, at least on roads during the day). I honestly believe 2" of sleet ought to get a WS Warning, just like 6" of snow - the only thing snow impacts much more than sleet is visibility. I might run for Governor on the sleet platform, lol.
We might still see some curveballs, but I think we're in for a pretty crazy morning and early afternoon at least for most of the area near/along 95 and NW of there and maybe even areas N of 195 away from the coast. So much depends on the timing of these transitions to sleet and rain (and maybe freezing rain) and predicting that timing for everywhere in the region is essentially impossible. There are going to be some areas that bust significantly in this storm vs. NWS and other predictions - I just don't know which direction yet.
Just saw this from the NWS-NYC and it really encapsulates what I was trying to convey in the last paragraph about the difficulty in nailing the timing of the transitions and how missing those has major impacts on the outcome in either direction.
National Weather Service New York NY
958 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Forecast on track this evening, with models continuing to
signal an extended period of wintry precip Tuesday morning into
Tuesday afternoon. Current snow/sleet forecast is a good blend
of NAM (likely too aggressive with low-level warm nose) and GFS
thermal profiles (likely too weak with warm nose). The forecast
could end up being 1 to 2 inches higher/lower based on just 1
to 2 hr transition timing. Likely will not be able to fine tune
it until event is underway. Based on cold air damming signature
through around 06z, with warming aloft have increased freezing
rain potential across the far interior of NE NJ, Lower Hudson
Valley, SW CT and CT River Valley, with up to 1/4 of an inch ice
likely, and locally 3/10 to 4/10 possible. Could be looking at
numerous downed tree branches and powerlines if high end of
icing potential comes to be. Towards the coast, around 1/10 of
an inch of ice likely all the way down to the northern portions
of NYC/NJ metro, with potential for locally up to 2/10th.
Perhaps a glazing of ice all the way down to the south coasts.
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Thank you yet again RU#'s for the early heads up about this potential mesoscale (sp?) pevent.
The meteorologist who works for my firm just sent out (10-15 minutes ago) his first email since last winter, suggesting that non-essential (reminded him in my thank you e-mail that non-essential is now replaced by "if you can't work from home & you NEED to finish something tomorrow)...
I am staying in the city --just in case-- but that was a last day decision since I looked at the 4 o'clock updates on this board.
Safe 24-36 hours to all of you on this board.
The meteorologist who works for my firm just sent out (10-15 minutes ago) his first email since last winter, suggesting that non-essential (reminded him in my thank you e-mail that non-essential is now replaced by "if you can't work from home & you NEED to finish something tomorrow)...
I am staying in the city --just in case-- but that was a last day decision since I looked at the 4 o'clock updates on this board.
Safe 24-36 hours to all of you on this board.
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Below is the email update I just sent out to my lists; it consolidates a bunch of info from other posts and elsewhere into one place; figured I'd share.
Well, the hard work is all done – time to see what happens. Not a lot of meteorology in this note – going to try to focus on the bottom line. So, the NWS has issued winter storm warnings (pink counties) for Morris/Warren, Lehigh Valley, Upper Bucks/Montco, and Somerset/Hunterdon, in addition to Sussex/Poconos and W. Passaic/Orange, as all of these counties are now in a 4-6/5-7" snow/sleet forecast, plus up to 0.2" of freezing rain glaze. Mercer, Middlesex, and Monmouth, lower Bucks/Montco and Philly/Chester/Delaware are under advisories for 1-3" of snow/sleet and up to 0.1" of freezing rain and most of the rest of SNJ is under advisories for up to 2" of snow/sleet and up to 0.1" of freezing rain.
We might still see some curveballs, but I think we're in for a pretty crazy and impactful morning and early afternoon at least for most of the area near/along 95 and NW of there and maybe even areas N of 195 in NJ away from the coast. Uncertainty is still high on when the precip transitions to sleet and then rain and if there is any freezing rain and how much, especially since the variability across the models is still quite high, even in tonight’s models from 0Z (data inputs at 7 pm EST). That’s because so much depends on the timing of these transitions to sleet and rain (and maybe freezing rain) and predicting that timing for everywhere in the region is essentially impossible, given the complexities in forecasting the entire column temperature and precip rates accurately, over an 18-hour period for every location (see the NWS discussion excerpt to this effect below). There are going to be some areas that bust significantly (high or low) in this storm vs. NWS and other predictions. Some bulleted details/comments follow.
· Snow is already falling in eastern PA/SNJ and should start in the western parts of CNJ/NNJ between 4-6 am and in the eastern parts of CNJ/NNJ and NYC by 6-8 am The morning rush hour may luck out and not be too bad in NYC and N/E of there, due to a later start time, but the morning rush almost everywhere in PA/NJ will likely be quite bad, except as one nears NYC. .
· There’s a discontinuity in Mt. Holly's warnings/advisories. The warnings for Upper Montco/Bucks, Hunterdon/Somerset are for 4-6", while the advisories for the next tier of counties SE of there, i.e,. Lower Montco/Bucks, Mercer, and Middlesex (and Monmouth) are for 1-3". You can't go from 3" to 4" by crossing an imaginary county line. The advisories earlier today were for 2-4" for those counties, which makes sense, as the highest amount in those counties should equal or overlap with the lowest amount in the next tier, but they dropped them to 1-3" this evening. I love the NWS, but that's kind of bad.
· For areas that change to rain before the afternoon rush hour (all SE PA, SNJ and probably the tier of counties next to the warned counties), the pm rush hour will likely just be very rainy. But for areas that are still having sleet/freezing rain, below 32F at 4-5 pm (the warned counties, most likely), the pm rush could be even worse than the am rush.
· Very little rain will fall in the warned counties (0-0.25” in the far NW to maybe 0.5” closer to 95), while the tier of counties next to the warned counties will likely see 0.5-1.0” of rain and Philly/SNJ will likely see well over 1” of rain.
· There will not be a hard freeze after this storm, but if you can, shovel the snow/sleet when the rain starts, since the rain will largely be absorbed into the slushpack, making for a much larger mass to move, at least for warned counties and advisory counties next to the warned counties and/or if the storm is overperforming with more snow/sleet than expected. If you only have a couple of inches of snow on the ground when it changes to rain, the rain will likely wash that away.
· On Sleet (ice pellets): The NWS and other forecasts are for snow and sleet, but this is one case where some models are showing much more sleet than snow. In fact, it’s quite possible that large parts of the warned counties are going to get an inch or two of snow and then 1-2" of sleet. While 1" of snow and 2" of sleet, for example, might only be 3" on the ground and not sound like much, that's 0.7” frozen liquid equivalent (or 7" of "snow equivalent", as sleet is 3" per 1" of liquid while snow is 10" per 1" of liquid). I would argue that 2" of sleet is just as impactful as 6" of snow, as both have the same mass, are equally hard to shovel/plow and drive in, plus, sleet will not melt nearly as quickly as snowflakes, due to its much lower surface area to volume ratio vs. flakes. This applies, in general, and during the establishment of any initial accumulation on paved surfaces in borderline situations. if we have all sleet tomorrow it'll accumulate more easily than all snow, at least on roads during the day. I honestly believe 2" of sleet ought to get a WS Warning, just like 6" of snow - the only thing snow impacts more than sleet is visibility.
· On Freezing Rain:Most forecasters will tell you that this is the most difficult precip type to forecast accurately and it’s certainly the most treacherous, as it can create a sheet of ice on all surfaces. It requires an exquisitely delicate temperature vs. elevation balance in the atmospheric column. It requires a warm layer several thousand feet up in the column to melt the falling snow, which is not unusual, but then it requires that there be just a very shallow layer of <32F temperatures (like the bottom 200-500 feet) just above the surface to supercool the falling raindrops so that they can then freeze on contact with the sub-32F surface, as an icy glaze; if the sub-32F layer is too deep, sleet results.
· Just to illustrate the difficulty forecasters have right now, just for my general area (roughly from New Brunswick to Rahway) the models show forecasts ranging from 1” of snow, ½” of sleet and 1.0” of rain, which would wash that snow/sleet away, to 3-4” of snow, followed by ~2” of sleet and then 0.5” of rain, which would be absorbed into the slush; this would be about 1.0” of frozen liquid equivalent (or 10” of snow equivalent) and would be very impactful. And other models are in-between those two extremes.
I’m including the usual NWS snowfall and potential freezing rain maps from the Philly and NYC offices, but since I think the gradient near and just NW of 95 is too steep (from 2” in NB to 4” in Somervile, for example), I’m also including Nick Gregory’s map. He’s from Channel 5 in NYC and is one of the top few pros in the area on TV and his map matches better with my thinking; I especially like his 2" line being from Philly to Keansburg to LI, as I think the gradient the NWS has from 95 to the 4" line is too steep.. We’ll see if that was a good move sometime tomorrow. Very, very tough forecast, as are so many in this area – many forecasters acknowledge this area is perhaps the toughest place to forecast winter weather given the unique complexities and the high pressure/visibility.
National Weather Service New York NY
958 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Forecast on track this evening, with models continuing to
signal an extended period of wintry precip Tuesday morning into
Tuesday afternoon. Current snow/sleet forecast is a good blend
of NAM (likely too aggressive with low-level warm nose) and GFS
thermal profiles (likely too weak with warm nose). The forecast
could end up being 1 to 2 inches higher/lower based on just 1
to 2 hr transition timing. Likely will not be able to fine tune
it until event is underway. Based on cold air damming signature
through around 06z, with warming aloft have increased freezing
rain potential across the far interior of NE NJ, Lower Hudson
Valley, SW CT and CT River Valley, with up to 1/4 of an inch ice
likely, and locally 3/10 to 4/10 possible. Could be looking at
numerous downed tree branches and powerlines if high end of
icing potential comes to be. Towards the coast, around 1/10 of
an inch of ice likely all the way down to the northern portions
of NYC/NJ metro, with potential for locally up to 2/10th.
Perhaps a glazing of ice all the way down to the south coasts.
Well, the hard work is all done – time to see what happens. Not a lot of meteorology in this note – going to try to focus on the bottom line. So, the NWS has issued winter storm warnings (pink counties) for Morris/Warren, Lehigh Valley, Upper Bucks/Montco, and Somerset/Hunterdon, in addition to Sussex/Poconos and W. Passaic/Orange, as all of these counties are now in a 4-6/5-7" snow/sleet forecast, plus up to 0.2" of freezing rain glaze. Mercer, Middlesex, and Monmouth, lower Bucks/Montco and Philly/Chester/Delaware are under advisories for 1-3" of snow/sleet and up to 0.1" of freezing rain and most of the rest of SNJ is under advisories for up to 2" of snow/sleet and up to 0.1" of freezing rain.
We might still see some curveballs, but I think we're in for a pretty crazy and impactful morning and early afternoon at least for most of the area near/along 95 and NW of there and maybe even areas N of 195 in NJ away from the coast. Uncertainty is still high on when the precip transitions to sleet and then rain and if there is any freezing rain and how much, especially since the variability across the models is still quite high, even in tonight’s models from 0Z (data inputs at 7 pm EST). That’s because so much depends on the timing of these transitions to sleet and rain (and maybe freezing rain) and predicting that timing for everywhere in the region is essentially impossible, given the complexities in forecasting the entire column temperature and precip rates accurately, over an 18-hour period for every location (see the NWS discussion excerpt to this effect below). There are going to be some areas that bust significantly (high or low) in this storm vs. NWS and other predictions. Some bulleted details/comments follow.
· Snow is already falling in eastern PA/SNJ and should start in the western parts of CNJ/NNJ between 4-6 am and in the eastern parts of CNJ/NNJ and NYC by 6-8 am The morning rush hour may luck out and not be too bad in NYC and N/E of there, due to a later start time, but the morning rush almost everywhere in PA/NJ will likely be quite bad, except as one nears NYC. .
· There’s a discontinuity in Mt. Holly's warnings/advisories. The warnings for Upper Montco/Bucks, Hunterdon/Somerset are for 4-6", while the advisories for the next tier of counties SE of there, i.e,. Lower Montco/Bucks, Mercer, and Middlesex (and Monmouth) are for 1-3". You can't go from 3" to 4" by crossing an imaginary county line. The advisories earlier today were for 2-4" for those counties, which makes sense, as the highest amount in those counties should equal or overlap with the lowest amount in the next tier, but they dropped them to 1-3" this evening. I love the NWS, but that's kind of bad.
· For areas that change to rain before the afternoon rush hour (all SE PA, SNJ and probably the tier of counties next to the warned counties), the pm rush hour will likely just be very rainy. But for areas that are still having sleet/freezing rain, below 32F at 4-5 pm (the warned counties, most likely), the pm rush could be even worse than the am rush.
· Very little rain will fall in the warned counties (0-0.25” in the far NW to maybe 0.5” closer to 95), while the tier of counties next to the warned counties will likely see 0.5-1.0” of rain and Philly/SNJ will likely see well over 1” of rain.
· There will not be a hard freeze after this storm, but if you can, shovel the snow/sleet when the rain starts, since the rain will largely be absorbed into the slushpack, making for a much larger mass to move, at least for warned counties and advisory counties next to the warned counties and/or if the storm is overperforming with more snow/sleet than expected. If you only have a couple of inches of snow on the ground when it changes to rain, the rain will likely wash that away.
· On Sleet (ice pellets): The NWS and other forecasts are for snow and sleet, but this is one case where some models are showing much more sleet than snow. In fact, it’s quite possible that large parts of the warned counties are going to get an inch or two of snow and then 1-2" of sleet. While 1" of snow and 2" of sleet, for example, might only be 3" on the ground and not sound like much, that's 0.7” frozen liquid equivalent (or 7" of "snow equivalent", as sleet is 3" per 1" of liquid while snow is 10" per 1" of liquid). I would argue that 2" of sleet is just as impactful as 6" of snow, as both have the same mass, are equally hard to shovel/plow and drive in, plus, sleet will not melt nearly as quickly as snowflakes, due to its much lower surface area to volume ratio vs. flakes. This applies, in general, and during the establishment of any initial accumulation on paved surfaces in borderline situations. if we have all sleet tomorrow it'll accumulate more easily than all snow, at least on roads during the day. I honestly believe 2" of sleet ought to get a WS Warning, just like 6" of snow - the only thing snow impacts more than sleet is visibility.
· On Freezing Rain:Most forecasters will tell you that this is the most difficult precip type to forecast accurately and it’s certainly the most treacherous, as it can create a sheet of ice on all surfaces. It requires an exquisitely delicate temperature vs. elevation balance in the atmospheric column. It requires a warm layer several thousand feet up in the column to melt the falling snow, which is not unusual, but then it requires that there be just a very shallow layer of <32F temperatures (like the bottom 200-500 feet) just above the surface to supercool the falling raindrops so that they can then freeze on contact with the sub-32F surface, as an icy glaze; if the sub-32F layer is too deep, sleet results.
· Just to illustrate the difficulty forecasters have right now, just for my general area (roughly from New Brunswick to Rahway) the models show forecasts ranging from 1” of snow, ½” of sleet and 1.0” of rain, which would wash that snow/sleet away, to 3-4” of snow, followed by ~2” of sleet and then 0.5” of rain, which would be absorbed into the slush; this would be about 1.0” of frozen liquid equivalent (or 10” of snow equivalent) and would be very impactful. And other models are in-between those two extremes.
I’m including the usual NWS snowfall and potential freezing rain maps from the Philly and NYC offices, but since I think the gradient near and just NW of 95 is too steep (from 2” in NB to 4” in Somervile, for example), I’m also including Nick Gregory’s map. He’s from Channel 5 in NYC and is one of the top few pros in the area on TV and his map matches better with my thinking; I especially like his 2" line being from Philly to Keansburg to LI, as I think the gradient the NWS has from 95 to the 4" line is too steep.. We’ll see if that was a good move sometime tomorrow. Very, very tough forecast, as are so many in this area – many forecasters acknowledge this area is perhaps the toughest place to forecast winter weather given the unique complexities and the high pressure/visibility.
National Weather Service New York NY
958 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Forecast on track this evening, with models continuing to
signal an extended period of wintry precip Tuesday morning into
Tuesday afternoon. Current snow/sleet forecast is a good blend
of NAM (likely too aggressive with low-level warm nose) and GFS
thermal profiles (likely too weak with warm nose). The forecast
could end up being 1 to 2 inches higher/lower based on just 1
to 2 hr transition timing. Likely will not be able to fine tune
it until event is underway. Based on cold air damming signature
through around 06z, with warming aloft have increased freezing
rain potential across the far interior of NE NJ, Lower Hudson
Valley, SW CT and CT River Valley, with up to 1/4 of an inch ice
likely, and locally 3/10 to 4/10 possible. Could be looking at
numerous downed tree branches and powerlines if high end of
icing potential comes to be. Towards the coast, around 1/10 of
an inch of ice likely all the way down to the northern portions
of NYC/NJ metro, with potential for locally up to 2/10th.
Perhaps a glazing of ice all the way down to the south coasts.
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Well, looks like this one is going to bust on the low side for almost everyone, at least with respect to snow totals. Not complete bust like 1/20, but definitely looking like less snow on the front end than forecast, due to a faster transition to sleet, so less snow.
Still should be several hours of sleet for most folks in the areas showing forecasts of 1-2" of snow, but could easily see something like 0.5-1" of snow, then 1" or so of sleet for the 95 corridor from Trenton to NYC (with a changeover to rain in the mid-afternoon) and maybe 1-2" of snow then 1-2" of sleet for the counties with warnings (as opposed to the 4-6/5-7" of snow/sleet forecast last night for the warned areas) and then some freezing rain, especially NW of 95 before the changeover to rain in the late afternoon/early evening.
Will still be a fair amount of rain for most, i.e., 0.5-1.0" for the 95 corridor and progressively less as one goes N/W of 95, with likely <0.25" for Sussex/Poconos. I also doubt we'll see more than 2" of snow until one gets up to Sussex and the Poconos where 2-4" of snow could fall before the transition to sleet with 1-2" of sleet for those folks.
Wintry precip is finally underway for eastern PA and the western part of CNJ/NNJ and should be hitting the 95 corridor from NB NEward by 8-8:30 am, a bit later than forecast. due to the cold/dry air in place. NWS did decrease snow/sleet forecasts in the maps below, relative to last night.
Still should be several hours of sleet for most folks in the areas showing forecasts of 1-2" of snow, but could easily see something like 0.5-1" of snow, then 1" or so of sleet for the 95 corridor from Trenton to NYC (with a changeover to rain in the mid-afternoon) and maybe 1-2" of snow then 1-2" of sleet for the counties with warnings (as opposed to the 4-6/5-7" of snow/sleet forecast last night for the warned areas) and then some freezing rain, especially NW of 95 before the changeover to rain in the late afternoon/early evening.
Will still be a fair amount of rain for most, i.e., 0.5-1.0" for the 95 corridor and progressively less as one goes N/W of 95, with likely <0.25" for Sussex/Poconos. I also doubt we'll see more than 2" of snow until one gets up to Sussex and the Poconos where 2-4" of snow could fall before the transition to sleet with 1-2" of sleet for those folks.
Wintry precip is finally underway for eastern PA and the western part of CNJ/NNJ and should be hitting the 95 corridor from NB NEward by 8-8:30 am, a bit later than forecast. due to the cold/dry air in place. NWS did decrease snow/sleet forecasts in the maps below, relative to last night.
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Snow finally started here around 7:30 am and we have a nice little dusting on the ground now. Hoping we at least get 1" of snow here, before the transition to hours of sleet, as that low level cold air is going to take awhile to dislodge to convert the sleet to rain. The latest HRRR (short term/high resolution, mesoscale model, which is usually quite good for 6-8 hours out) shows snow changing to sleet by 10-11 am for the Edison area and sleet continuing until about 4 pm here, so we likely have a ways to go with wintry precip.
Total bust. Will the Gov undeclare the state of emergency?
+1
Think of the millions Moron Murphy spent on salt and road prep just for it to rain in most of the state. Dan Zarrow and WW have been saying rain for most of the state for 2 days now.
Does the fact this snow is late arriving in Montclair...9am instead of 5am impact snow totals here?
Lol pingers in Belle Mead...this was predictable. Those snow amounts waaaay overdone by Mt Holly. Now just a question of how much sleet falls before the changeover to rain....hope it is quick
Hope everyone to the north also lucks out with as little wintry mixed bag as possible
Hope everyone to the north also lucks out with as little wintry mixed bag as possible
In NJ, the governor declaring a State of Emergency does not mean all that much. It does not mean that vehicles must stay off the roads, nor does it mean that anything is closed. The State of Emergency declaration simply gives the governor, and the Director of Emergency Management, more flexibility in getting emergency resources where they are needed, IF they are needed.
No reason to panic, and no reason to scoff. Although this is the RU football board, and panic/scoff is what we do.
Aaaaand state offices are closed. Another bizarre decision. Call for a delay when there's still uncertainty, close them down when it looks bust-ish.
And to add insult to injury, we're now going to be assessed a Rain Tax every quarter to build out new stormwater treatment facilities because our runoff is so polluted with salt
No, once anyone goes over to plain rain, you're done. Things are only going in the warm direction. Stills snowing here, but sleet is not far away. Doubt I'l get to 1" of snow. Key question is how long do we sleet for - models showing it for hours, but maybe they're just wrong. If the change to plain rain happens before getting at least 1" of sleet, after 1/2" or less of snow, that would be a major bust for areas along 95 north of Trenton.
Very good point. Murphy is going to tax us to compensate for his own stupidity!
How the hell is it snowing in Metuchen then? Is #'s in a snow globe?
At this rate, Murphy should just declare a State of Emergency daily, since it doesn't matter much but allows for easier access to resources. Efficiency gains!
The Whiff.
I was actually worried days ago about today's drive in. Boss is in Florida. I have to open the stores, no chance of calling out. The constant threat of ice for days. Than...
No snow! No sleet! Just rain. A complete bag of salt on my driveway will be washed away for nothing.
And as of 6:30am 6ABC was still calling for 1-3 inches to keep the media hype churning. Such BS. Just look out the window David Murphy, your storm is a complete bust
I was actually worried days ago about today's drive in. Boss is in Florida. I have to open the stores, no chance of calling out. The constant threat of ice for days. Than...
No snow! No sleet! Just rain. A complete bag of salt on my driveway will be washed away for nothing.
And as of 6:30am 6ABC was still calling for 1-3 inches to keep the media hype churning. Such BS. Just look out the window David Murphy, your storm is a complete bust
Had some light flurries as I got to Mountainside but that was about it on that ride from like 8am - 8:30am. VERY light flurrying in Summit now. Cold though!
Very light snow in Newark. Not much sticking. Says rain by 12 pm .
Seems like another bust .
What a crappy winter.
Seems like another bust .
What a crappy winter.
No, snow/sleet line has actually moved back south, under heavier precip rates. Sleet shows up really well on radar (the bright yellows) - looks to be sleet from Doylestown to Trenton, then up to just south of NB right now. It's snowing moderately in Metuchen and we have 1/4" on the ground. If we can somehow keep from changing to sleet for an hour more, we'll get an inch at this rate.
