If there was whipped cream (snow) at the top it'd be perfect.
How's the storm in Philly?
OT: Winter storm for 2/12 - Big Mess of Snow/Sleet/Rain (after minor snowfall on 2/11)
- Thread starter RU848789
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If there was whipped cream (snow) at the top it'd be perfect.
How's the storm in Philly?
RU###'s after this is over, if you have any book/journal recommendations for a novice to read about mesoscale storms, please post them. BTW, wherever you decide to retire to, you could always be a remote weather consultant for a hedge fund/investment manager, etc.
So, our meteorologist <who is very conservative, as I mentioned last night> sent out an e-mail 10 minutes ago (11:30 EST) that he thinks there is 'at least' a 40% chance probability that this storm switches from bust to another round of snow for the NYC/ tri-state area beginning mid-afternoon because "temperatures are now poised to stay lower longer than modeled just 2 1/2 hours ago"-- due to the mesoscale factors that are changing the timing correlations-- and after this snow/sleet stops, we will see a return to heavier snow bands for 3 to 5 hours. Any thoughts on this, RU#'s or others, if you see it, before 2 pm?
I am sending everyone home by 1 pm, and gradually shifting operations to other geographical offices until another review at midnight tonight.
Stay safe for anyone out and about/commuting this afternoon/evening.
So, our meteorologist <who is very conservative, as I mentioned last night> sent out an e-mail 10 minutes ago (11:30 EST) that he thinks there is 'at least' a 40% chance probability that this storm switches from bust to another round of snow for the NYC/ tri-state area beginning mid-afternoon because "temperatures are now poised to stay lower longer than modeled just 2 1/2 hours ago"-- due to the mesoscale factors that are changing the timing correlations-- and after this snow/sleet stops, we will see a return to heavier snow bands for 3 to 5 hours. Any thoughts on this, RU#'s or others, if you see it, before 2 pm?
I am sending everyone home by 1 pm, and gradually shifting operations to other geographical offices until another review at midnight tonight.
Stay safe for anyone out and about/commuting this afternoon/evening.
there are no forecasters talking about heavy snow bands for nyc, not sure where your so called meteorologist is coming up with this. Sleet will continue for most of us for a while and maybe longer than expected but there is no indication of snow being the issue for nyc
i will say this sleet on the ground seems softer and easier to move than most sleetfests are...guess the mixing with snow helps
Glad I got out in it when it was pouring snow, since it's now 90% sleet as of about 9:55 am (and 100% as of 10 am). We got 3/4" of snow before the change. Now let the sleetfest will begin - guessing we will get at least 1" of sleet out of this. Roads are treacherous - I can see Route 27 from my house and people are moving very slowly, as everything is covered. As I've said countless times, 1" of sleet is the same mass as roughly 3" of 10:1 snow and roads aren't going to be better with sleet, especially since sleet will melt more slowly than snow (much lower surface area to volume ratio).
Latest HRRR has me at sleet, with surface temps at or below 32F until 5 pm with another 0.3" liquid equivalent (LE) or so of sleet falling (would be ~1" sleet on top of the snow) - seems like precip forecast has really gone down, though. Changeover to rain would be around 6 pm as modeled, with a total of 1" LE for the storm, meaning about 0.5" LE as rain - if it's that late, the pm commute will be a tough one. 12Z NAM, on the other hand, also has me changing over around 5 pm, but with 0.6-0.7" total LE as frozen before then (6-7" worth of snow, as sleet mostly) and a total of 1.4" LE for the storm, so another 0.7" of plain rain after that.
The mesoscale, short-term models are showing significant freezing rain risks for much of the area (those models are best at detecting such risks). The HRRR and CMC-RDPS are both showing about 0.1" of freezing rain for the 95 corridor NE of Trenton (and NW of Philly) and are showing a lot more than that NW of there, i.e., up to 0.5", which would be horrendous if it verified. Nobody wants to see that, but folks should be aware of this risk. NAM is showing the freezing rain risk to be NW of 95, not along it, at least in NJ. Maps below.
Cleared one table at 10 am when it changed to sleet after 3/4" of snow - left one deck table with snow on it and cleared the other. As of noon, we've gotten 3/8" of sleet in about 2 hours, so it would take a little over 5 hours at this rate to get 1" of sleet (which is normally about 0.33" of LE at 3:1), which seems consistent with modeled precip rates. The sleet hasn't compressed the snow at all, as the depth of the undisturbed table is 1 and 1/8", probably because there was some sleet in that snow and that snow is likely denser than 10:1 (maybe 7-8:1 with sleet filling the interstices between flakes well). Down to 27F here and it looks like surface temps don't get to 32F for ~25 miles to my SE or S, so plain rain is likely hours away. Sleet is quite impactful as I've said - untreated roads are treacherous out there. And freezing rain is still a major threat - very hard to predict it though.
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Really? Wow, thought you'd be all rain by now - that means the low level cold air is very strong as models suggested it would be.
Sleeting hard about 3 miles due East of @knightfan7 . Went out to scrape the driveway off. Very cold outside.
If Mt. Holly is correct (updated 11 a.m.) changeover to rain should be by 2 p.m.
That'd be due west. 3 miles due east puts you in the area of the Sea Girt Reef lol.
ack to light snow all of a sudden...seems like when precip is lighter it goes to snow, the heavier it is, its sleet
I'm out fishing now. Cleared the driveway so I could move my boat. [pfftt]
Well, looks like this one is going to bust on the low side for almost everyone, at least with respect to snow totals. Not complete bust like 1/20, but definitely looking like less snow on the front end than forecast, due to a faster transition to sleet, so less snow.
Still should be several hours of sleet for most folks in the areas showing forecasts of 1-2" of snow, but could easily see something like 0.5-1" of snow, then 1" or so of sleet for the 95 corridor from Trenton to NYC (with a changeover to rain in the mid-afternoon) and maybe 1-2" of snow then 1-2" of sleet for the counties with warnings (as opposed to the 4-6/5-7" of snow/sleet forecast last night for the warned areas) and then some freezing rain, especially NW of 95 before the changeover to rain in the late afternoon/early evening.
Will still be a fair amount of rain for most, i.e., 0.5-1.0" for the 95 corridor and progressively less as one goes N/W of 95, with likely <0.25" for Sussex/Poconos. I also doubt we'll see more than 2" of snow until one gets up to Sussex and the Poconos where 2-4" of snow could fall before the transition to sleet with 1-2" of sleet for those folks.
Wintry precip is finally underway for eastern PA and the western part of CNJ/NNJ and should be hitting the 95 corridor from NB NEward by 8-8:30 am, a bit later than forecast. due to the cold/dry air in place. NWS did decrease snow/sleet forecasts in the maps below, relative to last night.
So, clearly a bust for pure snowfall amounts, as most folks in CNJ got around an inch or less of pure snow. However, the sleet has been hellacious and now looks like it might hold on past the 3-4 pm expected changeover to rain, at least for much of the 95 corridor NE of Trenton. Short range models don't have the NB-NYC corridor out of the sleet until 5-6 pm for NB/Edison and until 7-8 pm in NYC and show at least a couple of hours of freezing rain (but very hard to predict that accurately) before maybe 1/2" of plain rain.
Many in CNJ have gotten 3-4 hours of heavy sleet, totalling about 1" so far on top of the 1/2"-1" of snow they may have had, for a total of about 3-4" of "snow equivalent" by mass. As I've said a few times, sleet's impact are likely to be similar to snow's, as we're getting the same mass and impact is largely based on mass (for plowing/shoveling/driving; visibility is worse in snow), plus sleet melts more slowly than snow and so salt is less effective on it and roads are a mess, area wide, as per the map below. So maybe a bust for "pure snow" but not a bust at all for impact. IMO.
edit: here's the link to this pic...
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Could still be a bit icy in Ewing until 5-6 pm, but I would think you'd be ok once you get on the highway - treated major roads should generally be ok, if slow, and Philly will absolutely be ok, as they're already above 32F and just raining.
Well get to work young man. That snow ain't gonna clear itself.
Had to channel my dad with that one.
Changed back to snow here around 1 pm - did not expect that - and it's been alternating between snow and sleet and a mix and coming down moderately. As of 2 pm, we're up to 3/4" of "new" sleet (with some snow) and the other table has 1.5" on it, as it should. Up to 28F from 27F.
soon
its 29 now here in Belle Mead...thats up 2 in the last hour so hopefully the gradually warming begins, we are in a rather lullish part with very light snow falling right now
NEW JERSEY
...Bergen County...
Ridgewood 1.3 100 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter
Franklin Lakes 1.1 100 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter
East Rutherford 0.5 1130 AM 2/12 Trained Spotter
...Essex County...
Cedar Grove 1.6 130 PM 2/12 Public
...Hudson County...
Hoboken 1.0 100 PM 2/12 Public
Harrison 0.5 230 PM 2/12 Co-Op Observer
...Union County...
Newark Airport 1.2 100 PM 2/12 FAA Observer
...Bergen County...
Ridgewood 1.3 100 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter
Franklin Lakes 1.1 100 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter
East Rutherford 0.5 1130 AM 2/12 Trained Spotter
...Essex County...
Cedar Grove 1.6 130 PM 2/12 Public
...Hudson County...
Hoboken 1.0 100 PM 2/12 Public
Harrison 0.5 230 PM 2/12 Co-Op Observer
...Union County...
Newark Airport 1.2 100 PM 2/12 FAA Observer
Just a heads up. Today's 12Z global models show multiple winter weather threats on the table from the GFS, FV3, CMC, and Euro for 2/16 and 2/20 (and beyond). The 2/16 system ain't that far off, either - if tonight's models continue to show the potential for a 2-4/3-6" kind of event (which is what they show now), it'll be time for a new thread. And another winter storm looms for 2/20.
