OT: Winter Storm Thursday 2/20: Very Likely Somewhere Between A Non-Event and a Minor Event (oof)
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yup they will never learn their lesson and the same hyperbole....WOW HOLY BATMAN AND ROBIN...51 METEOROLOGISTS HAVE SIGNED A LETTER SAYING THEY HAVE SEEN SUCH A PATTERN COMING UP FAVORABLE FOR SNOWSTORMS ONE RIGHT AFTER THE OTHER
Worked out ok, but not as good as it could've been, for most snow lovers, as a couple of storms that looked very promising fizzled, delivering more significant snowfall elsewhere. The 2/8-2/22 period I posted about had generally normal snowfall during that time for most near/along 95, with some below normal (NW areas) and some above normal (at/near the coast).
Along/near 95, there was 4.4" of snow in NB vs. an average of 8.3" for February (4.1" for half a month), which was slightly above normal and Central Park had 5.6" during that period vs. an expected 5.0" for half of February (10.1" average Feb snowfall), which is a bit above normal. Trenton was a bit below normal for this time with 3.5" vs. an average of 8.0" for Feb (4.0" for half the month).
For me, personally, we had 5.3" in Metuchen vs. an expected 4.7" for half of February (30-year average of about 9.4", so that was a bit above normal and since you know I am as interested in frozen mass as frozen depth, the ~6" worth of snow packed into 1.6" of snow/sleet on 2/8 brought my equivalent snow mass up to ~10" of 10:1 ratio snow, which is well above normal. I also loved having 4 different snowfalls during those 2 weeks and having snow on the ground the entire time, so it looked quite wintry.
I did greatly enjoy playing a round of disc golf yesterday in shorts and a t-shirt in 61F degree weather at Mercer County Park, though.
Numbers trying to complete a tough hole.
One of the most redneck activities I've ever seen. LOL!
There's an AI model predicting a big storm in that time frame saw a FB post that this was the AI weather prediction??
Dan Zarrow
Forecast models have persistently put a storm system over New Jersey in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. The resounding consensus shows a period of solid rain there — possibly totaling an inch or two. Nothing wintry.
That's the ECMWF (Euro) AIFS model, which is the AI version of the Euro model and which has performed quite well in its first year, although it's far from infallible, like all of the other models (but it was the best model for the 2/20 storm that went to our south). There have been an occasional run or two of that and other models showing snow in the 3/8-3/9 timeframe, indicating some potential, but most runs are not showing that, so right now it's just a low probability event.
Yep, every model is showing at least 1/2" of rain with two of the four major global models showing 1-2" of rain in the 3/6 timeframe. We need the rain still.
Definitely not a new thread for a threat 10 days out. Speculation about the long term in this thread is a bit silly - would be better in the pattern thread, IMO, but not sure it matters much, since only a few folks will click on this thread with an old title.
And @e5fdny there is zero reason for old threads to "go away." Just don't click on it if you're not interested - it's pretty simple.
I totally disagree. You and Dan Zarrow are talking about a system 10 days out. Yes we need the rain desperately before the growing season but 10 days out? Add in the title of this thread was about the 2/20 storm which was a complete floop.
Every storm and forecast was a disaster around here where the dry air literally stopped storms in their path.
Apparently Mt. Holly had layoffs this evening along with around 10% of the NWS including critical staff that keep the numerical forecast models up and running. Also seeing a judge may have suspended this temporarily.
Incredibly shortsighted and just plain stupid, possibly the worst downsizing decision so far besides the nuclear weapons caretaking staff (which was reversed). These aren't political or bureaucratic hacks.
Incredibly shortsighted and just plain stupid, possibly the worst downsizing decision so far besides the nuclear weapons caretaking staff (which was reversed). These aren't political or bureaucratic hacks.
Which is why, when it’s over, the thread should be over.
End it. Move on. Talk about something else.
Colonel Trautman was right.
Left for a bike ride at 11:30am. Full cycling pants, t-shirt, fleeced lined jersey and a wind breaker. 5 mins in I thought about heading back to change into shorts and leave the wind breaker home. If it wasn't a huge climb to get back home I would have. An hour and change I need every bit of that gear.
Lots of "bone" being cut indiscriminately in very important government areas. I'm all for efficiencies, but they should be using a scalpel and not a sledgehammer and after measured analysis and cost-benefit evaluations, not simply cutting for cutting's sake. The cuts at the NWS, NOAA, NHC, SPC, etc., will absolutely affect the ability of many offices and specialty areas to issue timely/accurate forecasts on severe weather, hurricanes, snowstorms and even tsunamis. Reckless and stupid, especially since the US's meteorological services are the envy of the world.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/03/01/trump-firings-noaa-nws-weather-forecast-impacts/
No, you're welcome to end it, but others obviously want to keep talking about weather topics. So just ignore it rather than whining.
Played a disc golf round with our local group today at Oak Ridge in Union County (had about 35 on a beautiful, but windy day, starting at 10 am) and then went for a nice lunch with my wife and it was in the low 60s, but by the time we finished lunch and some shopping around 3 pm, the cold air was blasting in. Have a tourney tomorrow at Allaire and it's gonna be cold and windy - I don't mind the cold at all, but high winds make judging throws (especially putts) difficult.
Big storm Wednesday with 1"+ of rain likely and temps probably soaring into the 60s with the track well to our west - could be high winds and even some severe storms. But we need the rain.
It's dropped 6 more degrees since I posted this 2½ hours ago - now down to 29° when it was 59° around noontime.
Then read a calendar and take care of it. 🙂
Or as I asked the OP, at least change the title...
Make it a little Seinfield-esque:
"OT: What's the deal with Winter?" - But you have to read it in Jerry's voice.
Just curious. Off hand do you remember the latest you ever had to clear snow over whatever is your normal minimum?
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