OT: Wintry Pattern for 3/10 - 3/17 or so
- Thread starter RU848789
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Are you that dense? I'm not predicting anything like that nor is anyone else - I simply said what the range of models is showing and the UK model shows 5-10" for the area on Friday. That's not a prediction by any means. I'll be surprised to see more than 1-2" in most of Central Jersey.
And, by the way, today's GFS, Euro and UK all show more than a foot of snow on Tuesday for most of the Philly-NYC region. Well respected meteorologists are excited. Doesn't mean it's going to happen, but the setup and pattern are as good as they get for a major snowstorm 5-6 days out.
At this point, it's becoming pretty likely that there will be a major east coast winter storm, but it's still way too early to know exactly where the greatest impacts will be - could still be a cutter inland with snow to rain, could be a major snowstorm, could be a small/modest snowstorm for us and major to our south and could miss us completely.
Keep in mind that the big "busts" of the last 20 years, namely March 2001 and Jan-2015 were only busts in terms of placement - they were modeled for many days as huge snowstorms and they ended up being huge snowstorms that just happened to miss or greatly underperform for most of the NYC/NJ area, while crushing folks to our east and NE by 50-75 miles.
At this point, it's becoming pretty likely that there will be a major east coast winter storm, but it's still way too early to know exactly where the greatest impacts will be - could still be a cutter inland with snow to rain, could be a major snowstorm, could be a small/modest snowstorm for us and major to our south and could miss us completely.
Keep in mind that the big "busts" of the last 20 years, namely March 2001 and Jan-2015 were only busts in terms of placement - they were modeled for many days as huge snowstorms and they ended up being huge snowstorms that just happened to miss or greatly underperform for most of the NYC/NJ area, while crushing folks to our east and NE by 50-75 miles.
Absolutely nothing wrong with a snow bust, even a big one!
but why would even mention that given its a total outlier that no one believes...sort of misleading that is a real possibility like 8 inches too which you know isnt...its more likely to be 0 than 8
its 1-2 inches of wet slop mostly on the grass but some areas will cash in better than post. We agree in facts just do not agree in presentation
just to point out...subtract a few inches off those maps and the ones I saw late this afternoon were more 6-12
5-6 days out in a March system where two systems have to pass, lots can change and I certainly wouldnt buy into any of these amounts until we get to Saturday
and Mt Holly has low confidence with the forecast do to its uncertainty with arrival time and precip intensity and temperature profiles
Latest guidance is not in particularly good
agreement regarding the exact track of the low, evolution of the
associated precipitation, and the timing of the low`s
development and subsequent eastward push. The 12Z NAM is on the
slow side, a typical bias of the model, and is a little bit
stronger with the low (while over land) and with the jet streak
downstream into the adjacent Atlantic. Compared to the 12Z GFS
(surface low located south of Cape Cod at 12Z Friday), the NAM
places the low near Chesapeake Bay at this time. This has
predictable implications on precipitation timing, with the GFS
breaking out precipitation in the southern Poconos by Thursday
evening with the main band moving through before Friday morning
rush hour (generally 06-12Z), whereas the NAM is at least six
hours slower. Thereafter, the NAM and GFS break out light
precipitation behind the main band Friday afternoon, affecting
much of southeast Pennsylvania and northern/central New Jersey.
The 12Z CMC has similar timing to the GFS, but is considerably
farther north with the track of the low, so that areas generally
south of I-76 receive much less precipitation (with the main
band along and north of I-80). Finally, the 12Z ECMWF has a
track and timing more similar to the GFS but with a slightly
slower eastward push of the precipitation shield.
Of course, this does not even begin to account for the type of
precipitation that falls. In general, thermal profiles will be
favorable for snow north of I-80, but this becomes far more
questionable to the south. With marginal near-surface air
temperatures Thursday night/Friday morning, precipitation may be
a cold rain, particularly south of the Mason-Dixon Line.
However, with the lack of a warm nose (in fact, more of an
appearance of relatively steep low-level lapse rates) above the
surface, there is a decent chance of snow even with surface
temperatures a few degrees above freezing. Figuring out snow
totals in this regime is challenging (understatement). With snow
ratios generally above 10:1 and QPF generally in the quarter to
four-tenths of an inch range, snow totals of 2-4 inches look
pretty likely in the southern Poconos (and possibly higher,
especially if surface temperatures remain near/below freezing
through the event`s duration and precipitation lasts a bit
longer than progged). Snow totals closer to an inch are
possible north of the Mason-Dixon Line, but with surface
temperatures above freezing and relatively warm soil
temps...it may be difficult to accumulate much of anything
south of I-76. One caveat, though: Even with the quick-hitting
nature of the storm, marginal temperatures, and antecedent
warmth all pointing to low snow totals (at least south of I-80),
the rate of precipitation may be fairly high. Most of the QPF
occurs in a 3-6 hour window, which suggests that snow may
accumulate readily, despite the warm ground and near-surface
air. Very tricky forecast, to say the least, with potential for
considerable error.
Latest guidance is not in particularly good
agreement regarding the exact track of the low, evolution of the
associated precipitation, and the timing of the low`s
development and subsequent eastward push. The 12Z NAM is on the
slow side, a typical bias of the model, and is a little bit
stronger with the low (while over land) and with the jet streak
downstream into the adjacent Atlantic. Compared to the 12Z GFS
(surface low located south of Cape Cod at 12Z Friday), the NAM
places the low near Chesapeake Bay at this time. This has
predictable implications on precipitation timing, with the GFS
breaking out precipitation in the southern Poconos by Thursday
evening with the main band moving through before Friday morning
rush hour (generally 06-12Z), whereas the NAM is at least six
hours slower. Thereafter, the NAM and GFS break out light
precipitation behind the main band Friday afternoon, affecting
much of southeast Pennsylvania and northern/central New Jersey.
The 12Z CMC has similar timing to the GFS, but is considerably
farther north with the track of the low, so that areas generally
south of I-76 receive much less precipitation (with the main
band along and north of I-80). Finally, the 12Z ECMWF has a
track and timing more similar to the GFS but with a slightly
slower eastward push of the precipitation shield.
Of course, this does not even begin to account for the type of
precipitation that falls. In general, thermal profiles will be
favorable for snow north of I-80, but this becomes far more
questionable to the south. With marginal near-surface air
temperatures Thursday night/Friday morning, precipitation may be
a cold rain, particularly south of the Mason-Dixon Line.
However, with the lack of a warm nose (in fact, more of an
appearance of relatively steep low-level lapse rates) above the
surface, there is a decent chance of snow even with surface
temperatures a few degrees above freezing. Figuring out snow
totals in this regime is challenging (understatement). With snow
ratios generally above 10:1 and QPF generally in the quarter to
four-tenths of an inch range, snow totals of 2-4 inches look
pretty likely in the southern Poconos (and possibly higher,
especially if surface temperatures remain near/below freezing
through the event`s duration and precipitation lasts a bit
longer than progged). Snow totals closer to an inch are
possible north of the Mason-Dixon Line, but with surface
temperatures above freezing and relatively warm soil
temps...it may be difficult to accumulate much of anything
south of I-76. One caveat, though: Even with the quick-hitting
nature of the storm, marginal temperatures, and antecedent
warmth all pointing to low snow totals (at least south of I-80),
the rate of precipitation may be fairly high. Most of the QPF
occurs in a 3-6 hour window, which suggests that snow may
accumulate readily, despite the warm ground and near-surface
air. Very tricky forecast, to say the least, with potential for
considerable error.
WARNING - WEATHER PORN
Not something I normally post, but this is something you might see once in awhile in Jan/Feb, but never mid-March. It's the total accumulated snowfall map from the GFS model through 3/18 (most of which would fall in the Tuesday event, according to the model, with a little bit this Friday and the rest on St. Patty's Day). It's very unlikely to verify, especially as it's only one model and most of the snow falls after Day 5, which is low accuracy, but the point of posting it is to illustrate how potent this pattern is with regard to snow/cold. Would be a weenie wonderland, though...
Not something I normally post, but this is something you might see once in awhile in Jan/Feb, but never mid-March. It's the total accumulated snowfall map from the GFS model through 3/18 (most of which would fall in the Tuesday event, according to the model, with a little bit this Friday and the rest on St. Patty's Day). It's very unlikely to verify, especially as it's only one model and most of the snow falls after Day 5, which is low accuracy, but the point of posting it is to illustrate how potent this pattern is with regard to snow/cold. Would be a weenie wonderland, though...
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I meant a little bit this Friday and the rest on St. Patty's Day - edited to make it clearer, thanks...
Tonight's models coming in snowier for Friday's event, with the (edit: Euro on board, too) UK, CMC, RGEM and GFS all showing 3-6" of snow for essentially all of Central/North Jersey, NYC, LI, eastern PA (north of 276-195; even 2-3" south of there). NAM shows much less south of 78 (1-2"). If the Euro confirms the snowier solutions (as it did earlier today), expect to see the NWS and all the media outlets to increase their snowfall forecasts.
For what it's worth, the GFS and Canadian backed off the huge snowstorm they had for Tuesday; they're now showing a significant storm for us, especially towards the coast, but it's still 5+ days out and some fluctuations are to be expected. The Euro and UK still look major (6" plus). This one is just about watching - the pattern and potential are still all there for a major storm, but there's no guarantee it happens. Earthlight, a great pro on the boards, had this to say tonight:
The main players, the same evolution, and the overall incredibly favorable hemispheric setup continue to show up. This is the range where we are all better off having some perspective. Lets take a step back and accept that the storm missing to the east IS in fact a possibility. Instead of dreading it, accept that. But have confidence in the fact that this setup offers a significantly higher probability of giving us something significant than most setups we see unfold throughout any given winter.
For what it's worth, the GFS and Canadian backed off the huge snowstorm they had for Tuesday; they're now showing a significant storm for us, especially towards the coast, but it's still 5+ days out and some fluctuations are to be expected. The Euro and UK still look major (6" plus). This one is just about watching - the pattern and potential are still all there for a major storm, but there's no guarantee it happens. Earthlight, a great pro on the boards, had this to say tonight:
The main players, the same evolution, and the overall incredibly favorable hemispheric setup continue to show up. This is the range where we are all better off having some perspective. Lets take a step back and accept that the storm missing to the east IS in fact a possibility. Instead of dreading it, accept that. But have confidence in the fact that this setup offers a significantly higher probability of giving us something significant than most setups we see unfold throughout any given winter.
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As expected, the NWS has significantly increased their snowfall forecasts for Friday for most of the region north of 276/195, with 2" or more north of that line, as per the maps below I hope they copy correctly), and they issued winter weather advisories for 2-4" of snow for Upper bucks/Montco in PA and Hunterdon/Somerset/Middlesex in NJ and counties north of those counties in NJ/PA, plus for NYC/LI (where the NWS in NYC is calling for 3-5"). The advisories for Sussex and the Poconos are for 4-6".
The snow will start in earnest in the wee hours (after starting as rain for a couple of hours in most locations) and with temps dropping towards 32F by 5-7 am, the intensity will likely be enough for snow to accumulate on untreated roads before 8-9 am (although there should be less on paved surfaces than grassy surfaces, especially for the first few hours of snow with temps in the mid 30s - and after 9 am or so, as the sun gets higher in the sky.
From the NWS in Philly:
A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for northeastern PA and
northern NJ (north of the I-195 and PA Turnpike corridors). The
highest snowfall amounts of 4-6" are forecast in the southern
Poconos and far northwestern NJ. Accumulations taper off southward
with 2-4" for the I-78 corridor and around an inch as far south as
Philadelphia. Please see the WSW for more information on timing and
impacts. At this point, cannot rule out the possibility of
expanding the advisory a bit farther south into central NJ and
southeastern PA.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
Oh boy,this ink blot test has me seeing some very strange things. Why is she doing that to him? Why is Mr.TV hanging out in the mountains to the west? Why is Kbee3 wearing a Mets hat in the Long Island shaded red area? Why does it show Rutgers seated #14 in the East Bracket?WARNING - WEATHER PORN
Not something I normally post, but this is something you might see once in awhile in Jan/Feb, but never mid-March. It's the total accumulated snowfall map from the GFS model through 3/18 (most of which would fall in the Tuesday event, according to the model, with a little bit this Friday and the rest on St. Patty's Day). It's very unlikely to verify, especially as it's only one model and most of the snow falls after Day 5, which is low accuracy, but the point of posting it is to illustrate how potent this pattern is with regard to snow/cold. Would be a weenie wonderland, though...
For Central NJ via WeatherWorks:
This event begins as a stripe of snow in N. NJ before precip fills into our area 4-7 AM. Still thinking it begins as rain, but there will be a switch over to snow. This falls at a moderate intensity for the AM and note in the storm confidence, there is potential for higher amounts. However, this is on grassy surfaces as pavements will have difficulty accumulating due to preceding warmth and temps during snow 32-34. It's going to take a heavy intensity for the pavements to briefly cover up. After this ends late morning / midday, we have a second threat to watch for as scattered snow showers and squalls threaten 4-10 PM. This is just like last Friday and the later a snow shower falls, the better chance for pavement cover because temps fall in the evening (into the 20s).
Sounds like:
Whitebus = 1
RU#'s = 0
This event begins as a stripe of snow in N. NJ before precip fills into our area 4-7 AM. Still thinking it begins as rain, but there will be a switch over to snow. This falls at a moderate intensity for the AM and note in the storm confidence, there is potential for higher amounts. However, this is on grassy surfaces as pavements will have difficulty accumulating due to preceding warmth and temps during snow 32-34. It's going to take a heavy intensity for the pavements to briefly cover up. After this ends late morning / midday, we have a second threat to watch for as scattered snow showers and squalls threaten 4-10 PM. This is just like last Friday and the later a snow shower falls, the better chance for pavement cover because temps fall in the evening (into the 20s).
Sounds like:
Whitebus = 1
RU#'s = 0
You're so cute when you try to argue. First off, WB and I aren't competing on anything, since apart from predicting what the NWS is going to do in 3-6 hours (which I nailed, above), I rely on the NWS most heavily in my posts, so if this storm busts, it's on them, as they're the pros, I'm not. Secondly, WeatherWorks is not a particularly impressive outfit, based on past history, so I wouldn't use them.
Third, today's 12Z models are near consensus on a general 2-6" snowfall (3-4" being most likely with the 5-6" amounts most likely north of 78) for almost the entire region from Philly to NYC and including eastern PA, LI/CT; the only areas not in that swath are, on some models areas south of maybe a Philly to Toms River line, where less precip falls. And much of this falls before 8 am, so it will likely accumulate on untreated, lightly traveled roads.
Oh and by the way, the 12Z models are showing a major snowstorm for Mon night through Tuesday. 4+ days out now, so at least a decent (4" or more) snowfall is moving into the likely category from the possible category. I'd still say major (10" or more) is just in the possible category. A total miss is becoming extremely unlikely, but still possible.
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Yes, I know, and they generally aren't as good as the NWS in my opinion and the opinions of more than a few pros I've spoken to over the years on the boards.
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WW have been very accurate for the past several years. Solid service and analysis.
From Notify NYC:
Notification issued 3/9/17 at 12:30 PM. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for New York City from 10:00 PM tonight, 3/9, until 2:00 PM tomorrow, 3/10. A total of 3-5 inches of snow is forecast with locally higher amounts possible.
New Yorkers are advised to exercise caution when driving, walking, or biking, and allow for additional travel time as roads may be slippery. Residents should also check on their neighbors, friends, and relatives, especially the elderly and those with disabilities, and access and functional needs during periods of extreme cold.
For more information, please visit: www.weather.gov/nyc. or http://on.nyc.gov/2niVBbm.
Notification issued 3/9/17 at 12:30 PM. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for New York City from 10:00 PM tonight, 3/9, until 2:00 PM tomorrow, 3/10. A total of 3-5 inches of snow is forecast with locally higher amounts possible.
New Yorkers are advised to exercise caution when driving, walking, or biking, and allow for additional travel time as roads may be slippery. Residents should also check on their neighbors, friends, and relatives, especially the elderly and those with disabilities, and access and functional needs during periods of extreme cold.
For more information, please visit: www.weather.gov/nyc. or http://on.nyc.gov/2niVBbm.
This storm is pissing me off. Instead of my wife being able to drive 90 miles to Connecticut tomorrow to pick up my daughter from college. I have to do it after work tonight. Probably will not get home before 10 so now I have to implement total news blackout, dvr the game and watch it after the fact.
You should have made her attend RU, just bad parenting ;)
If I'm you, I would go old school for the first half, listen to the radio for the drive home. By then you will know if its worth watching the 2nd half on TV when you get home.
I have this stupid app on my phone that gives me RU scores. I can't get rid of it. So in addition to total news blackout, I have instructed my family to not call or text until I'm done watching the DVR. I shut the phone off. Really pisses me off.
Actually, while I'm typing this I realize that those are great hours. Wow, just realized I miss the pay phone days.
Watch out for those electric overhead signs on major highways. They may put up the score just to spite you.
So, Mercer and Monmouth and lower Bucks/Montco in PA were added to the advisories for 2-3" of snow (2-4" in the next band of counties and 3-6" north of 80, roughly). Not a big, big deal, but will likely have impacts on the morning rush, especially north of maybe 78, where temps will be a little below 32F and more accumulation will occur on roads.
And the Euro joined the camp of almost all the other models showing a major snowstorm for Tuesday. Still 4+ days out, though.
NWS AFD out and maps are up too...
By Friday morning, precip will be all snow for all but extreme
southern NJ and the Delmarva, as temps will generally range from the
upper 30s to around 40. Even though it has been quite warm, and snow
may initially melt on contact, there should be a period of moderate
to possibly even heavy snow once mesoscale banding develops that
will allow snow to accumulate regardless of soil temps.
Models have come in a bit wetter, and expecting storm total QPF to
range from around 1/2" across most of the northern third of the CWA,
and generally 1/3-1/2" elsewhere. Extreme southern portions of the
CWA should get less than 1/4". As for snow, with the coldest air up
north, and the longest period of snow, generally expecting 4-6"
along and north of I-80, and a swath of 2-4" from around I-76 to I-
80. From around Philly southward, around an inch of snow will fall
Friday morning, and less than an inch across the Delmarva. Went
ahead and added Western Monmouth, Mercer, Eastern Montgomery, and
Lower Bucks counties to the Winter Weather Advisory, as 2" of snow
should fall in those areas.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
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Mt Holly bumped totals on its likely snow map. Again how much is on the grass vs the pavement...quite warm again today and this snow will have come down quite heavy...this is not as big as the event from early Feb.
probably see 2-3 inches on grass but more like an inch or maybe even less on sidewalks....nuisance event in general but timing with heaviest during the start to end of rush is probably going to make it more difficult with flakes falling and probable slush here and there
probably see 2-3 inches on grass but more like an inch or maybe even less on sidewalks....nuisance event in general but timing with heaviest during the start to end of rush is probably going to make it more difficult with flakes falling and probable slush here and there
I just drove by one on Rt 46. It said "Winter Weather Advisory Drive with Caution. Also, RU versus Northwestern at 9 PM"
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