Don't look now Mama but Lee Goldberg said he would not be surprised to see a plowable snow on Tuesday. BTW GFS spits out 12-18 inches. Hold on. We have a long way before winter ends.
OT: Wintry Pattern for 3/10 - 3/17 or so
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
18Z GFS spits out 18-24" area wide (a bit less at the coast, due to mixing). If it verified, which is unlikely, it would be an historic storm (most snowfall in March since the Blizzard of 1888). Still a long ways to go, but as I've been saying (and actually downplaying vs. what I'm seeing in the models and reading on the boards from actual conservative meteorologists getting giddy), this pattern is ripe, seriously ripe for wintry weather. See the thread...
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49755-march-model-discussion/?page=31
Honestly, the biggest threat to a major snowstorm right now is that it has trended west, bringing rain/sleet into the picture for the coast and eventually maybe for inland areas. But I think we're close to being sure a major storm is going to hit us.
I don't want to hear about snow.I was ready to put the snow blower away and get the lawn mower ready.
Crap. Driving to from NJ to Canton Ohio. Was supposed to leave Tuesday morning. I may have to get a head start and leave Monday night. F winter. And F any snow weenie who wants the big one.
Snowbomb for Tuesday. Wait till Lonnie Quinn rolls up his sleeves.
Is the snow coming from the west? If so, then you may have to leave a whole lot earlier
This is long - please ignore if you hate long posts. Figured I'd post my latest email update for those interested...
Let’s try a bulleted summary, as I don’t have a lot of time and want to get the key points across. And one or two people have said I’m too verbose. The nerve, lol.
Friday’s Event (NWS snowfall maps below)
· For Friday’s event, advisories up for PA/NJ/NY counties north of 276/195 for 2-4” from there up to about I-78. Could be up to 6” especially towards/north of I-80, but even areas in Central Jersey could get 4-5” where the best bands set up.
· Likely only 1-2” towards Philly/South Jersey, as more rain and less precip will fall there.
· Heaviest precip likely between 2 am and 10 am, which means that, despite above freezing temps, accumulation will likely occur, even on untreated paved surfaces (and especially as temps drop to near 32F by sunrise); I’d expect major, treated roads to be mostly wet, although visibility will be limited in moderate/heavy snow at times.
· With temps warming into the mid-30s by late morning and with the higher sun angle, snow will have a harder time accumulating, especially on paved surfaces, so visibility will likely be the main issue then. Whatever isn’t shoveled by nightfall will freeze solid, however.
http://www.weather.gov/phi/
Tuesday’s Event
· Been talking about this event for a few days now, about how ripe the pattern is for a major winter storm. Well, we’re now only 4 days out and the model consensus is unusually high on a major winter storm impacting the area Monday night through Tuesday. The potential is there for an historic storm of 12-18” of snow, which would be the biggest March snowstorm for most since the Blizzard of 1888 – that’s not a forecast, just the potential. We’re close enough now that we’re almost certainly going to be impacted by a storm, but the outcome is still unclear. The possibilities still include:
o Tthe storm cutting inland some, bringing heavy snow to sleet to rain and back to snow for most of us (and maybe all snow well inland) – this was the March ’93 Superstorm scenario.
o The “perfect storm” where this “Miller B” system, approaching from our west “transfers” its energy to the coast, where cyclogenesis occurs along a baroclinic zone fueled by great temperature contrasts, as we have the polar vortex in place and the warm (relatively) Atlantic close by, results in a nor’easter that rides up the coast crushing us with feet of snow.
o The storm being suppressed to our south some, leading to a moderate snowfall (more at the coast/less inland).
o Also, the three options above could have variations in which the tracks I mentioned pan out, but the intensity is not what it looks to be now, i.e., instead of 12-18” of snow, maybe 6-10” of snow falls for the perfect track scenario.
o I guess a complete miss can’t be dismissed at least for some areas (like March 2001/Jan-15, although these only “missed” small areas and still crushed others, i.e., there was a monster storm, it just shifted 50-75 miles), but it’s looking fairly unlikely at this point.
o I think you all know which outcome I want, lol.
o I’m not going to include model maps, as I don’t like overhyping events, but if you want to look, try this thread on Americanwx – the winter weather weenies are going wild.
o https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49755-march-model-discussion/?page=32
o Note that one of the strongest supporting pieces of info about the high confidence in this being a major winter storm is that the Euro and GFS (2 of the main/best models) are both showing the storm (as are other models) hitting us, but, in addition, the “ensemble” forecasts for each model, in which the model is run 20-50 times with small variations in initial and boundary conditions, are clustered tightly around the main operational model output, which is a very strong sign that model output has greater confidence than normal.
Let’s try a bulleted summary, as I don’t have a lot of time and want to get the key points across. And one or two people have said I’m too verbose. The nerve, lol.
Friday’s Event (NWS snowfall maps below)
· For Friday’s event, advisories up for PA/NJ/NY counties north of 276/195 for 2-4” from there up to about I-78. Could be up to 6” especially towards/north of I-80, but even areas in Central Jersey could get 4-5” where the best bands set up.
· Likely only 1-2” towards Philly/South Jersey, as more rain and less precip will fall there.
· Heaviest precip likely between 2 am and 10 am, which means that, despite above freezing temps, accumulation will likely occur, even on untreated paved surfaces (and especially as temps drop to near 32F by sunrise); I’d expect major, treated roads to be mostly wet, although visibility will be limited in moderate/heavy snow at times.
· With temps warming into the mid-30s by late morning and with the higher sun angle, snow will have a harder time accumulating, especially on paved surfaces, so visibility will likely be the main issue then. Whatever isn’t shoveled by nightfall will freeze solid, however.
http://www.weather.gov/phi/
Tuesday’s Event
· Been talking about this event for a few days now, about how ripe the pattern is for a major winter storm. Well, we’re now only 4 days out and the model consensus is unusually high on a major winter storm impacting the area Monday night through Tuesday. The potential is there for an historic storm of 12-18” of snow, which would be the biggest March snowstorm for most since the Blizzard of 1888 – that’s not a forecast, just the potential. We’re close enough now that we’re almost certainly going to be impacted by a storm, but the outcome is still unclear. The possibilities still include:
o Tthe storm cutting inland some, bringing heavy snow to sleet to rain and back to snow for most of us (and maybe all snow well inland) – this was the March ’93 Superstorm scenario.
o The “perfect storm” where this “Miller B” system, approaching from our west “transfers” its energy to the coast, where cyclogenesis occurs along a baroclinic zone fueled by great temperature contrasts, as we have the polar vortex in place and the warm (relatively) Atlantic close by, results in a nor’easter that rides up the coast crushing us with feet of snow.
o The storm being suppressed to our south some, leading to a moderate snowfall (more at the coast/less inland).
o Also, the three options above could have variations in which the tracks I mentioned pan out, but the intensity is not what it looks to be now, i.e., instead of 12-18” of snow, maybe 6-10” of snow falls for the perfect track scenario.
o I guess a complete miss can’t be dismissed at least for some areas (like March 2001/Jan-15, although these only “missed” small areas and still crushed others, i.e., there was a monster storm, it just shifted 50-75 miles), but it’s looking fairly unlikely at this point.
o I think you all know which outcome I want, lol.
o I’m not going to include model maps, as I don’t like overhyping events, but if you want to look, try this thread on Americanwx – the winter weather weenies are going wild.
o https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49755-march-model-discussion/?page=32
o Note that one of the strongest supporting pieces of info about the high confidence in this being a major winter storm is that the Euro and GFS (2 of the main/best models) are both showing the storm (as are other models) hitting us, but, in addition, the “ensemble” forecasts for each model, in which the model is run 20-50 times with small variations in initial and boundary conditions, are clustered tightly around the main operational model output, which is a very strong sign that model output has greater confidence than normal.
Lonnie just called tomorrow a slushy event for tomorrow. 2-4 inches.
Called Tuesday possibly a BRUISER of a storm
Jacket stayed on.
Called Tuesday possibly a BRUISER of a storm
Jacket stayed on.
Lee Goldberg has precip not changing to snow until about 7 AM in the city...and that with the temp at 37 and temps in the mid 30s throughout central jersey..we may never actually go below freezing...going to be a lot of slop and lost snow due to melting on contact and compaction. For some it could be a plowable event but for alot we may be looking at wet pavement with light accumulations during the heavier part.
oh and watch for the streamers in the afternoon to coat the ground
and you will want to remove all slush as there will be a hard freeze overnight and its going to be pretty cold Saturday
my thoughts about Tuesday is that it is still too far away and way too much concern over track and precip issues to be going nuts like some here are.
oh and watch for the streamers in the afternoon to coat the ground
and you will want to remove all slush as there will be a hard freeze overnight and its going to be pretty cold Saturday
my thoughts about Tuesday is that it is still too far away and way too much concern over track and precip issues to be going nuts like some here are.
The late change last night was the models showed a delay to the start and end of the snow by 2-3 hours, but the NWS actually increased snowfall amounts a little. Snow is coming down in North Jersey and most of Central and should be here very soon in Middlesex County and will come down at a decent rate.
The late start is good news for the roads, though as temps are still well above freezing, but intensity might still overcome that and lead to some accumulation on paved surfaces. Tricky forecast for roads - could end up being mostly or only snow on grassy/colder surfaces and little to none on paved surfaces. Still on track for a general 2-5" of snow in the general region north of 276/195 with lower amounts south and greater amounts to the north. Maps were updated - see my post above.
The late start is good news for the roads, though as temps are still well above freezing, but intensity might still overcome that and lead to some accumulation on paved surfaces. Tricky forecast for roads - could end up being mostly or only snow on grassy/colder surfaces and little to none on paved surfaces. Still on track for a general 2-5" of snow in the general region north of 276/195 with lower amounts south and greater amounts to the north. Maps were updated - see my post above.
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Very light snow just started here in Metuchen - didn't start as rain, surprisingly. Radar indicated it should pick up in intensity pretty quickly.
Thankfully they were wrong again as I just brought in a tractor trailor full of beer without a drop. Now just starting to drizzle. Still have more to come but round 1 is in and dry. 41 degrees right now. Will feel like a heat wave compared to this time tomorrow.
watch the winds out there people and hold onto your kids! This girl has strong hands, hopefully the parents get her playing softball.
Wow. Anyone see the blond woman on the Weather Channel wearing that blue and black leather skirt. OMG.:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye::clap:[banana]:eyes::p
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I can't help to think of my Grandma when I see threads like this one. She would tell us the harshest winters make for the most beautiful springs and summers. The crap we witness in March & April is a byproduct of the uncharacteristically warm weather in December, January and February. Last summer between 7/20/16 and 8/15/16 we had 95° to 102° days with very little relief at night. Two or three years ago during the month of April it hovered around 45° to 50° all month.
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Been snowing at light to occasionally moderate intensity here and in most locations, looking at the radar. At this intensity, will be surprised if we see much, if any accumulation on paved surfaces and there will be less accumulation even on grass with light to moderate snowfall. Need a fair amount more intensity to get snow on the roads with the indirect sunlight and temps at or above 32F in most locations, except well N/W of NYC (like where @DJ Spanky is). If we don't get that, this could be a bust.
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