Possible wintery weather for Thursday
- Thread starter RocktheRac
- Start date
Guilty as charged on being argumentative. But I didn't intend to argue with you on your post and my apologies if it came across that way. I was agreeing with the general sentiment and then just adding some additional commentary, since I thought the 11/15 case was an interesting exception, since we get 3-6" several times per winter, typically, and it's rarely paralyzing - 11/15 was a huge outlier.
IMHO, 11/15 was paralyzing because the NWS (and the private services too) so grossly underpredicted what would happen, and so people, businesses, and public authorities were caught flat-footed. This is why overprediction is often better than underprediction.
Completely agree, as I kept harping on before the storm, as it seemed so obvious we were going to get somewhat to a lot more snow than was being forecast, given the model consensus on more snow. It was mind-blowing, actually, and nearly unprecedented. And I think the memory of that bust was fresh in their minds with them overestimating today's event. The NWS in Philly is one of the best, IMO, historically, but this has not been a good month for them.
The other big factor on 11/15 was the timing, as things were fine in the morning and then the snow hit really hard from the early afternoon through rush hour and, of course, people left work at the absolute worst time and the timing, the wall of snow and the failure to prepare, partly due to the poor forecasts, was a recipe for disaster.
As soon as you admit that Amy Freeze is the premiere meteorologist in the tri-state area, there will be no arguing. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
(Don't take the bait).
High of 90 degrees here today. AC in my office is going full blast and I got a Yule Log and Christmas tunes playing on my desktop.
'Tis the season!!
'Tis the season!!
Way too early for a storm thread, but I was going to start a thread tomorrow on the likely cold and possibly snowy pattern for late December into early January. Been lots of chatter on this for the last week or so.
Hmmm.... My brother-in-law is having his 80th birthday party in Hillsborough on Jan. 6, and both my sister and brother are flying in for it. I'll watch the forecasts carefully! Please supply a link when you think that's appropriate.
Thanks, will do. By the way, I don't think this is worth a thread yet, either, but a couple of models, including the NAM/new GFS, which has been doing pretty well on snowstorms the past couple of years (did quite well on 11/15) are showing the rain this weekend changing over and producing significant snowfall on Sunday, for interior sections, i.e., N and W of a line from about Allentown, PA to White Plains, NY, with heavy snow (6" or more) for NW NJ (Sussex/Warren/W. Passaic, the Poconos, Catskills, etc (and maybe even a little bit of snow down to the 95 corridor north of about Trenton). However, the Euro and GFS (old one) and CMC show very little snow south of about 84. If more models come on board this afternoon, it'll be worth a thread, as we're only 24 hours away. Time to go to the SHU game, for now, though.
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OT: Minor to Moderate (2-4?) Snowfall Likely Sat morning (2/17); will be <32F, so expect slick roads
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